<ul>
<li><em>Raoul Pal 的 “香蕉区” 预测比特币的整合阶段，然后转变为 “香蕉奇点”</em></li>
<li><em>特朗普就职前的比特币价格走势可能引发反弹或恐慌性抛售。</em></li>
</ul>
<p>比特币 [BTC] 最近的价格走势引发了人们的关注，在短暂跌破 $92,500 后反弹至 $94,000 以上。这一波动的走势让许多投资者在市场不确定性加剧的情况下对这款加密货币的下一步方向产生了疑问。</p>
<h2>Raoul Pal 对当前市场状况的看法</h2>
<p>在最近的一期播客中，Real Vision 创始人 Raoul Pal 为讨论增添了独特的视角，他提出了 “香蕉区” 的概念。Pal 进一步通过在 X（前身为 Twitter）上的一篇帖子阐述了这一观点，含糊地表示，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“我们仍然处于香蕉区。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>这让社区对这对比特币的轨迹意味着什么充满了猜测。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Raoul-Pal.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Raoul-Pal.webp"/></p>
<p>来源：Raoul Pal/X</p>
<p>作为背景，Pal 的 “香蕉区” 概念描述了加密货币价格的快速上涨，其价格轨迹在图表上呈现出香蕉的形状。</p>
<p>Pal 进一步解释说，市场目前处于整合阶段，紧随其后的是他所称的 “香蕉区第一阶段”，该阶段以去年的价格突破为标志。</p>
<p>他将这一阶段与 2016-2017 年加密货币繁荣期间的市场条件进行了比较。</p>
<h2>山寨币季节即将来临吗？</h2>
<p>Pal 认为这一整合阶段不会持续太久，他预计市场将很快过渡到 “香蕉区第二阶段”，他将其描述为 “香蕉奇点”——他预测这一阶段将引发山寨币季节。</p>
<p>根据 BlockchainCenter.net 的最新更新，山寨季节仍然是一个遥远的前景，因为当前指数为 51——这表明尚未进入山寨季节。</p>
<p>在这一阶段，正如 Pal 指出，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“一切都在上涨（随后是更大的整合）。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Pal 还建议，市场最终将进入 “香蕉区第三阶段”，他将其描述为 “集中阶段”。在这里，核心赢家会爆发并创造更高的高点。预计这一阶段将标志着周期的最后一次上涨，部分加密货币将达到新高。</p>
<p>与此相关，AMBCrypto 使用 IntoTheBlock 数据的分析显示，91.82% 的比特币持有者 “处于盈利状态”，持有的代币价值超过其原始购买价格。</p>
<p>这一压倒性的数字表明了市场的看涨情绪，进一步支持了价格上涨的预期。相反，只有 4.52% 的 BTC 持有者 “处于亏损状态”，持有的代币价值低于其购买价格。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Bitcoin-In_Out-Money.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Bitcoin-In_Out-Money.webp"/></p>
<p>来源：IntoTheBlock</p>
<p>鉴于比特币在市场中的领先地位，这一势头表明更广泛的加密市场可能会随之而动，大多数资产有望在不久的将来迎来反弹。</p>
<h2>特朗普入主白宫会永久改变加密市场动态吗？</h2>
<p>因此，随着比特币在 1 月 20 日特朗普总统就职前面临关键时刻，其价格轨迹仍然不确定。鉴于即将发生的事件，分析师认为，如果 BTC 能够在就职前或之后守住 $88,000 的水平，可能会出现强劲反弹。</p>
<p>另一方面，若跌破 $88,000，可能会引发短期持有者的恐慌性抛售，可能会进一步压低价格。</p>
<p>因此，值得等待看看接下来会发生什么。尤其是市场在为波动性和可能影响比特币近期前景的政治事件做好准备。</p>

GBTC

<p>Raoul Pal 的 “香蕉区” 概念表明，比特币正处于一个整合阶段，可能会进入一个潜在的山寨币季节。比特币最近反弹至 94,000 美元以上，这在市场不确定性中引发了对其未来方向的质疑。Pal 预计将过渡到 “香蕉奇点”，这可能会触发山寨币季节。目前数据显示，91.82% 的比特币持有者处于盈利状态，表明市场情绪看涨。即将举行的唐纳德·特朗普总统就职典礼可能会影响比特币的价格，分析师密切关注 88,000 美元的水平，以寻找反弹或抛售的迹象</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Raoul Pal’s “Banana Zone” predicts Bitcoin’s consolidation phase, before transitioning into “Banana Singularity”</em></li>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s price action ahead of Trump’s inauguration could trigger a rebound or panic sell-off.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>Raoul Pal 的 “香蕉区” 预测比特币的整合阶段，然后转变为 “香蕉奇点”</em></li>
<li><em>特朗普就职前的比特币价格走势可能引发反弹或恐慌性抛售。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC]’s recent price action has sparked intrigue as it rebounded above $94,000, after briefly dipping below $92,500. This volatile movement has left many investors questioning the cryptocurrency’s next direction amid growing market uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币 [BTC] 最近的价格走势引发了人们的关注，在短暂跌破 $92,500 后反弹至 $94,000 以上。这一波动的走势让许多投资者在市场不确定性加剧的情况下对这款加密货币的下一步方向产生了疑问。</p>
</div><h2>Raoul Pal on current market condition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Raoul Pal 对当前市场状况的看法</h2>
</div><p>Adding a unique perspective to the discussion, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal introduced the concept of the “Banana Zone” during a recent podcast. Pal further elaborated on this idea through a post on X (formerly Twitter), cryptically stating,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的一期播客中，Real Vision 创始人 Raoul Pal 为讨论增添了独特的视角，他提出了 “香蕉区” 的概念。Pal 进一步通过在 X（前身为 Twitter）上的一篇帖子阐述了这一观点，含糊地表示，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“We are still in the Banana Zone.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“我们仍然处于香蕉区。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>This has left the community buzzing with speculation about what this means for Bitcoin’s trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让社区对这对比特币的轨迹意味着什么充满了猜测。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Raoul-Pal.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Raoul-Pal.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: Raoul Pal/X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Raoul Pal/X</p>
</div><p>For context, Pal’s concept of the “Banana Zone” describes a rapid surge in the cryptocurrency’s price, one where the price trajectory resembles the shape of a banana on a chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为背景，Pal 的 “香蕉区” 概念描述了加密货币价格的快速上涨，其价格轨迹在图表上呈现出香蕉的形状。</p>
</div><p>Pal further explained that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, following what he calls “Banana Zone Phase 1,” which was marked by last year’s price breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pal 进一步解释说，市场目前处于整合阶段，紧随其后的是他所称的 “香蕉区第一阶段”，该阶段以去年的价格突破为标志。</p>
</div><p>He compared this phase to the market conditions seen during the 2016-2017 cryptocurrency boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他将这一阶段与 2016-2017 年加密货币繁荣期间的市场条件进行了比较。</p>
</div><h2>Is altcoin season around the corner?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>山寨币季节即将来临吗？</h2>
</div><p>Pal believes this consolidation stage won’t last much longer and he anticipates the market will soon transition into “Banana Zone Phase 2,” which he describes as “Banana Singularity” — A phase he predicts will trigger an altcoin season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pal 认为这一整合阶段不会持续太久，他预计市场将很快过渡到 “香蕉区第二阶段”，他将其描述为 “香蕉奇点”——他预测这一阶段将引发山寨币季节。</p>
</div><p>According to the latest update from BlockchainCenter.net, the altseason is still a distant prospect, as the current index stands at 51 – A sign that it is not yet the altseason.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 BlockchainCenter.net 的最新更新，山寨季节仍然是一个遥远的前景，因为当前指数为 51——这表明尚未进入山寨季节。</p>
</div><p>During this phase, as Pal points out,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一阶段，正如 Pal 指出，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“everything goes up (followed by a bigger consolidation).”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“一切都在上涨（随后是更大的整合）。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Pal also suggested that the market will eventually enter “Banana Zone Phase 3,” which he describes as the “concentration phase.” Here, the core winners explode and make much higher highs. This phase is expected to mark the final surge in the cycle, with select cryptocurrencies reaching new peaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pal 还建议，市场最终将进入 “香蕉区第三阶段”，他将其描述为 “集中阶段”。在这里，核心赢家会爆发并创造更高的高点。预计这一阶段将标志着周期的最后一次上涨，部分加密货币将达到新高。</p>
</div><p>In line with this, an analysis by AMBCrypto using IntoTheBlock data revealed that a substantial 91.82% of Bitcoin holders were “in the money,” holding tokens worth more than their original purchase price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此相关，AMBCrypto 使用 IntoTheBlock 数据的分析显示，91.82% 的比特币持有者 “处于盈利状态”，持有的代币价值超过其原始购买价格。</p>
</div><p>This overwhelming figure indicated a bullish market sentiment, further supporting expectations of a price surge. Conversely, only 4.52% of BTC holders were “out of the money,” holding tokens valued lower than their purchase price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一压倒性的数字表明了市场的看涨情绪，进一步支持了价格上涨的预期。相反，只有 4.52% 的 BTC 持有者 “处于亏损状态”，持有的代币价值低于其购买价格。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Bitcoin-In_Out-Money.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Bitcoin-In_Out-Money.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: IntoTheBlock</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：IntoTheBlock</p>
</div><p>Given Bitcoin’s lead in the market, this momentum suggested that the broader crypto market will likely follow suit, with a majority of the assets poised for a rally in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于比特币在市场中的领先地位，这一势头表明更广泛的加密市场可能会随之而动，大多数资产有望在不久的将来迎来反弹。</p>
</div><h2>Will Trump’s entry to the White House change crypto market dynamics for good?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普入主白宫会永久改变加密市场动态吗？</h2>
</div><p>Thus, as Bitcoin faces a pivotal moment ahead of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration on 20 January, its price trajectory remains uncertain. Given the upcoming events, analysts believe that if BTC manages to defend the $88k-level before or after the inauguration, a strong rebound could follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，随着比特币在 1 月 20 日特朗普总统就职前面临关键时刻，其价格轨迹仍然不确定。鉴于即将发生的事件，分析师认为，如果 BTC 能够在就职前或之后守住 $88,000 的水平，可能会出现强劲反弹。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, a dip below $88k might trigger a panic sell-off by the STH (short-term holder) cohort, potentially driving the price even lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，若跌破 $88,000，可能会引发短期持有者的恐慌性抛售，可能会进一步压低价格。</p>
</div><p>Thus, it is worth waiting to see what happens next. Especially as the market braces for volatility and the unfolding political events that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，值得等待看看接下来会发生什么。尤其是市场在为波动性和可能影响比特币近期前景的政治事件做好准备。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin and ‘Banana Zones’ to give way to altcoin season, ‘crypto singularity?’

Amb Crypto

比特币和 ‘香蕉区’ 将让位于山寨币季节，‘加密奇点？’