<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 1.99%），截至目前，其前瞻性股息收益率为 14.3%，是市场上收益最高的股票之一。它还每月支付股息。</p>
<p>这个巨额股息看起来很诱人，但它可持续吗？让我们深入探讨 AGNC 的商业模式，看看它是高收益陷阱还是可行的收入投资。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEyNTcvd2F0ZXJpbmctY29pbnMtbmV4dC10by1waWdneS1iYW5rLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEyNTcvd2F0ZXJpbmctY29pbnMtbmV4dC10by1waWdneS1iYW5rLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AGNC 不是传统的房地产投资信托</h2>
<p>AGNC 是一家房地产投资信托（REIT）。但与传统 REIT 不同——传统 REIT 购买物业、出租并与投资者分配租金收入——AGNC 并不购买任何房地产。相反，它是一家抵押贷款 REIT（mREIT），通过发放自己的抵押贷款和购买抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）来产生利息收入。</p>
<p>与传统 REIT 一样，AGNC 必须支付至少 90% 的税前净收入，以维持有利的税率。但传统 REIT 通常通过调整后的运营资金（FFO）来衡量其利润，而 mREIT 则通过每股净利差和美元滚动收入来评估其盈利能力。</p>
<p>净利差是指其抵押贷款和 MBS 所赚取的收益减去融资该资产的成本。它通过出售待公告（TBA）MBS 以在当前月份交付，同时同意在未来月份购买类似的 MBS（相同的发行人、期限或票息）来产生美元滚动收入。</p>
<p>利率上升通常会提升这两个数字。但在过去一年中，随着利率下降，AGNC 的净利差和每股美元滚动收入，以及其每股有形净资产价值（评估其基础资产的价值）均有所下降。</p>
<p>| 指标 | 2023 年第四季度 | 2024 年第一季度 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 |
| <strong>每股净利差和美元滚动收入</strong> | $0.60 | $0.58 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 |
| <strong>每股有形净资产价值</strong> | $8.70 | $8.84 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 |</p>
<p>数据来源：AGNC。</p>
<p>在整个年度中，AGNC 的净利差和美元滚动收入下降了 28%，降至每股$1.88，因为美联储三次降低了基准利率。但这仍然足以覆盖其每股$1.44 的股息。</p>
<h2>但随着利率下降，它能维持如此高的收益吗？</h2>
<p>AGNC 的商业模式看起来可能有风险，但它将 89.4% 的 733 亿美元投资组合分配给由房利美、房地美或政府国民抵押协会支持的机构 MBS 资产。这种强有力的政府支持应该能保护它免受重大抵押贷款危机的影响。其风险较高的新 TBA 抵押贷款仅占其投资组合的 9.4%。</p>
<p>对于 2025 年，分析师预计 AGNC 的净利差和美元滚动收入将下降 15%，降至每股$1.60，因为利率将继续下降。这仍将覆盖其每股$1.44 的前瞻性股息，但投资者可能会对更大的降息感到谨慎。</p>
<p>AGNC 似乎对这种情况并不太担心。在最近的电话会议上，首席执行官彼得·费德里科表示，公司对 2025 年的机构 MBS 仍持&#34;非常积极的展望&#34;，因为美联储&#34;终于改变了其限制性货币政策立场，并开始将短期利率恢复到中性水平的过程。&#34;</p>
<p>换句话说，AGNC 不希望利率保持过高，因为这会抑制房地产市场并使发放新抵押贷款变得更加困难，但他们也不希望利率降得过低，以免减少其净利差收入。因此，较慢的降息——这可能是现实，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普不可预测的关税、地缘政治紧张局势和持续的通货膨胀为经济带来了阻力——实际上可能会缓解冲击，使 AGNC 能够支持其高股息收益率。</p>
<h2>AGNC 的 14.3% 股息看起来可持续……目前</h2>
<p>AGNC 的 14.3% 收益率看起来极其高，但在可预见的未来应该保持可持续。它的估值也显得偏低：每股$10 的交易价格，仅为其 2025 年预计的每股净利差和美元滚动收入的 6 倍。</p>
<p>如此高的收益率和低估值应该限制其下行潜力，但投资者不应仅仅买入后就忘记它。相反，他们应该密切关注利率，并观察其如何影响抵押贷款市场。如果利率快速飙升或下降，AGNC 可能会失去平衡，被迫削减其高额股息。</p>

美国资本代理公司

<p>AGNC Investment 提供高达 14.3% 的前瞻性股息收益率，但由于利率波动，其可持续性受到质疑。作为一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托（REIT），AGNC 通过抵押贷款和抵押贷款支持证券产生收入，其投资组合中有相当一部分是由政府机构担保的。尽管最近净利差和美元滚动收入有所下降，但分析师预测，只要利率不会大幅下降，它仍然可以维持其股息。投资者被建议密切关注利率变化，因为快速波动可能会影响 AGNC 维持股息的能力</p>

<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC 1.99%), with a forward dividend yield of 14.3% as of this writing, is one of the market's highest-yielding stocks. It also pays monthly dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 1.99%），截至目前，其前瞻性股息收益率为 14.3%，是市场上收益最高的股票之一。它还每月支付股息。</p>
</div><p>That massive dividend might look tempting, but is it sustainable? Let's dig deeper into AGNC's business model to see if it's a high-yield trap or a viable income investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个巨额股息看起来很诱人，但它可持续吗？让我们深入探讨 AGNC 的商业模式，看看它是高收益陷阱还是可行的收入投资。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEyNTcvd2F0ZXJpbmctY29pbnMtbmV4dC10by1waWdneS1iYW5rLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811257%2Fwatering-coins-next-to-piggy-bank.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>AGNC isn't a traditional REIT</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 不是传统的房地产投资信托</h2>
</div><p>AGNC is a real estate investment trust (REIT). But unlike traditional REITs -- which buy properties, rent them out, and split the rental income with their investors -- AGNC doesn't buy any real estate. Instead, it's a mortgage REIT (mREIT) which originates its own mortgages and purchases mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to generate its interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 是一家房地产投资信托（REIT）。但与传统 REIT 不同——传统 REIT 购买物业、出租并与投资者分配租金收入——AGNC 并不购买任何房地产。相反，它是一家抵押贷款 REIT（mREIT），通过发放自己的抵押贷款和购买抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）来产生利息收入。</p>
</div><p>Like traditional REITs, AGNC must pay out at least 90% of its pre-tax net income to maintain a favorable tax rate. But while traditional REITs usually measure their profits with their adjusted funds from operations (FFO), mREITs gauge their profitability through their net spread and dollar roll income per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与传统 REIT 一样，AGNC 必须支付至少 90% 的税前净收入，以维持有利的税率。但传统 REIT 通常通过调整后的运营资金（FFO）来衡量其利润，而 mREIT 则通过每股净利差和美元滚动收入来评估其盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>The net spread refers to the yield earned on its mortgages and MBS minus the costs of funding that asset. It generates its dollar roll income by selling its to-be-announced (TBA) MBS for delivery in the current month as it simultaneously agrees to buy a similar MBS (the same issuer, term, or coupon) in a future month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净利差是指其抵押贷款和 MBS 所赚取的收益减去融资该资产的成本。它通过出售待公告（TBA）MBS 以在当前月份交付，同时同意在未来月份购买类似的 MBS（相同的发行人、期限或票息）来产生美元滚动收入。</p>
</div><p>Rising interest rates usually boost both of these figures. But over the past year, AGNC's net spread and dollar roll income per share, along with its tangible net book value per share (which values its underlying assets), dipped as interest rates fell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率上升通常会提升这两个数字。但在过去一年中，随着利率下降，AGNC 的净利差和每股美元滚动收入，以及其每股有形净资产价值（评估其基础资产的价值）均有所下降。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 |
| <strong>Net Spread and Dollar Roll Income per Share</strong> | $0.60 | $0.58 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 |
| <strong>Tangible Net Book Value per Share</strong> | $8.70 | $8.84 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指标 | 2023 年第四季度 | 2024 年第一季度 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 |
| <strong>每股净利差和美元滚动收入</strong> | $0.60 | $0.58 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 |
| <strong>每股有形净资产价值</strong> | $8.70 | $8.84 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 |</p>
</div><p>Data source: AGNC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：AGNC。</p>
</div><p>For the full year, AGNC's net spread and dollar roll income dropped 28% to $1.88 per share as the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rates three times. But that still comfortably covered its $1.44 in dividends per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在整个年度中，AGNC 的净利差和美元滚动收入下降了 28%，降至每股$1.88，因为美联储三次降低了基准利率。但这仍然足以覆盖其每股$1.44 的股息。</p>
</div><h2>But can it maintain that high yield as interest rates decline?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但随着利率下降，它能维持如此高的收益吗？</h2>
</div><p>AGNC's business model might seem risky, but it allocates 89.4% of its $73.3 billion portfolio to Agency MBS assets, which are backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae. That firm government support should shield it from a major mortgage crisis. Its riskier new TBA mortgages only account for 9.4% of its portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 的商业模式看起来可能有风险，但它将 89.4% 的 733 亿美元投资组合分配给由房利美、房地美或政府国民抵押协会支持的机构 MBS 资产。这种强有力的政府支持应该能保护它免受重大抵押贷款危机的影响。其风险较高的新 TBA 抵押贷款仅占其投资组合的 9.4%。</p>
</div><p>For 2025, analysts expect AGNC's net spread and dollar roll income to decline 15% to $1.60 per share as interest rates keep dropping. That will still cover its forward dividend of $1.44 per share, but investors might be wary of bigger rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2025 年，分析师预计 AGNC 的净利差和美元滚动收入将下降 15%，降至每股$1.60，因为利率将继续下降。这仍将覆盖其每股$1.44 的前瞻性股息，但投资者可能会对更大的降息感到谨慎。</p>
</div><p>AGNC doesn't seem too concerned about that scenario. During its latest conference call, CEO Peter Federico said the company still had a &#34;very positive outlook for Agency MBS&#34; in 2025 as the Fed had &#34;finally shifted its restrictive monetary policy stance and began the process of returning short term rates to a neutral level.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 似乎对这种情况并不太担心。在最近的电话会议上，首席执行官彼得·费德里科表示，公司对 2025 年的机构 MBS 仍持&#34;非常积极的展望&#34;，因为美联储&#34;终于改变了其限制性货币政策立场，并开始将短期利率恢复到中性水平的过程。&#34;</p>
</div><p>In other words, AGNC doesn't want interest rates to stay too high, since they'll chill the real estate market and make it harder to originate new mortgages, but they also don't want them to drop so low that they reduce its net spread income. Therefore, slower rate cuts -- which might now be a reality as U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and sticky inflation generate headwinds for the economy -- could actually cushion the blow and enable AGNC to support its high dividend yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，AGNC 不希望利率保持过高，因为这会抑制房地产市场并使发放新抵押贷款变得更加困难，但他们也不希望利率降得过低，以免减少其净利差收入。因此，较慢的降息——这可能是现实，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普不可预测的关税、地缘政治紧张局势和持续的通货膨胀为经济带来了阻力——实际上可能会缓解冲击，使 AGNC 能够支持其高股息收益率。</p>
</div><h2>AGNC's 14.3% dividend looks sustainable... for now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 的 14.3% 股息看起来可持续……目前</h2>
</div><p>AGNC's 14.3% yield might seem ridiculously high, but it should remain sustainable for the foreseeable future. It also looks undervalued: At $10 a share, it trades at just 6 times its projected net spread and dollar roll income per share for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 的 14.3% 收益率看起来极其高，但在可预见的未来应该保持可持续。它的估值也显得偏低：每股$10 的交易价格，仅为其 2025 年预计的每股净利差和美元滚动收入的 6 倍。</p>
</div><p>That high yield and low valuation should limit its downside potential, but investors shouldn't just buy it and forget about it. Instead, they should closely monitor interest rates and see how they affect the mortgage market. If interest rates spike or drop too quickly, AGNC could lose its balance and be forced to slash its high dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此高的收益率和低估值应该限制其下行潜力，但投资者不应仅仅买入后就忘记它。相反，他们应该密切关注利率，并观察其如何影响抵押贷款市场。如果利率快速飙升或下降，AGNC 可能会失去平衡，被迫削减其高额股息。</p>
</div>

这只股票高达 14.3% 的股息收益率能否持续下去？