<p>目前，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 10.08%) (GOOGL 9.90%) 最具吸引力的增长机会之一是通过其 Waymo 业务进入机器人出租车领域。这有潜力彻底改变出租车行业。去年，Waymo 每周平均完成 150,000 次出行，而随着服务扩展到更多市场，这一数字在今年将进一步上升。</p>
<p>但尽管 Waymo 具有良好的潜力，我认为 Alphabet 在未来五年内剥离该业务的可能性非常高。</p>
<h2>Alphabet 已经在人工智能上投入巨资</h2>
<p>创建和维护一个不断增长的机器人出租车车队将是非常昂贵的。对 Alphabet 来说，风险在于随着 Waymo 规模的扩大，Alphabet 的运营可能会变得更加复杂和昂贵。它已经在多个城市运营，包括洛杉矶、旧金山、奥斯丁和凤凰城。然而，Waymo 最近宣布了更多城市的扩展计划，亚特兰大、华盛顿特区和东京都在其近期扩展的市场名单上。</p>
<p>问题在于，随着进入更多市场，Waymo 的成本将显著上升，而此时 Alphabet 正在大力投资人工智能 (AI)。仅在今年，Alphabet 预计将在构建其 AI 基础设施上花费 750 亿美元。</p>
<p>在与许多其他科技公司进行的 AI 竞争中，Alphabet 正在努力保护其搜索主导地位——并且正在投资其 Gemini 聊天机器人，以确保即使用户依赖聊天机器人而非 Google 搜索，使用的也是 Gemini。该公司在其核心业务中面临着相当大的风险，这是它过去不必担心的。AI 聊天机器人可能为其他公司提供了一个机会，最终从 Alphabet 手中夺走一些有价值的市场份额和广告支出。</p>
<h2>Waymo 可能为 Alphabet 解锁数十亿美元的价值</h2>
<p>通过剥离 Waymo，Alphabet 也可能为自己和投资者解锁更多的价值。去年，Waymo 的估值据报道超过 450 亿美元，基于最近的一轮融资。但随着业务的扩展并覆盖全国更多市场，Waymo 的估值在未来可能会大幅上升。</p>
<p>这笔资金可以帮助 Alphabet 追求其他与 AI 和其核心业务更为互补的收购。此外，通过剥离，Alphabet 还可能节省数十亿美元，因为不必在扩展和发展 Waymo 的业务上花费更多资金。通过专注于各自的核心竞争力和优势，企业有时可以在长期内实现比在同一框架下更大的效率和成果。</p>
<p>Alphabet 已经将 Waymo 带到了这个阶段，但更具吸引力的举动可能是保留对这家汽车公司的股份，并让其作为独立实体运营。</p>
<h2>为什么这对投资者来说可能是双赢</h2>
<p>Waymo 的股票剥离可能让投资者在两个快速增长的业务中拥有股份：Alphabet 和 Waymo。如果你最终更喜欢其中一个，你可以随时出售其中一个的持股。只需看看围绕 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 及其机器人出租车的热情，就能明白为什么投资者可能会对 Waymo 的剥离感到兴奋，因为该股票本身可能会产生大量的乐观情绪，甚至可能吸引一些投资者远离特斯拉，如果它能够展示出更优越的业绩。</p>
<p>现在，投资者必须接受整个包裹——包括 Alphabet 所有其他业务的 Alphabet。通过剥离 Waymo，投资者将有更多选择，这可能导致两个业务的合并估值远高于 Alphabet 当前的估值。</p>
<p>无论最终发生什么，你可能都想考虑购买并持有 Alphabet 股票，特别是考虑到其适度的估值；它的交易价格为其过去收益的 18 倍。无论公司是否剥离 Waymo，你都可以从其未来增长中受益。在最佳情况下，剥离确实发生，你的投资组合中将有两只出色的成长股。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>预计谷歌母公司 Alphabet 将在五年内剥离其 Waymo 机器人出租车业务，原因是运营成本上升和对人工智能的重磅投资。Waymo 目前的估值超过 450 亿美元，正在扩展到新市场，这可能进一步提高其估值。剥离可能为 Alphabet 释放价值，并为投资者提供在两家快速增长公司的股份，可能导致两者的估值都提高。无论结果如何，考虑到其适中的估值，Alphabet 的股票仍然是一个稳健的投资机会</p>

<p>One of the most intriguing growth opportunities for <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 10.08%) (GOOGL 9.90%) these days is in robotaxis, via its Waymo business. It has the potential to revolutionize the taxi industry. Last year, it averaged 150,000 trips per week, and that number is going to climb even higher this year, as the service expands into more markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 10.08%) (GOOGL 9.90%) 最具吸引力的增长机会之一是通过其 Waymo 业务进入机器人出租车领域。这有潜力彻底改变出租车行业。去年，Waymo 每周平均完成 150,000 次出行，而随着服务扩展到更多市场，这一数字在今年将进一步上升。</p>
</div><p>But despite Waymo's promising potential, here's why I think it's highly likely that Alphabet will spin off the business within the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管 Waymo 具有良好的潜力，我认为 Alphabet 在未来五年内剥离该业务的可能性非常高。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet is already spending heavily on artificial intelligence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Alphabet 已经在人工智能上投入巨资</h2>
</div><p>Creating and maintaining a growing fleet of robotaxis is going to be expensive. And the danger for Alphabet is that as Waymo grows in size, Alphabet's operations may get much more complex and costly amid that process. It's already operating in multiple cities, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Austin, and Phoenix. However, Waymo has recently announced plans for more cities, with Atlanta, Washington, D.C., and Tokyo being on the list of markets it wants to expand into in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>创建和维护一个不断增长的机器人出租车车队将是非常昂贵的。对 Alphabet 来说，风险在于随着 Waymo 规模的扩大，Alphabet 的运营可能会变得更加复杂和昂贵。它已经在多个城市运营，包括洛杉矶、旧金山、奥斯丁和凤凰城。然而，Waymo 最近宣布了更多城市的扩展计划，亚特兰大、华盛顿特区和东京都在其近期扩展的市场名单上。</p>
</div><p>The problem is that by expanding into more markets, Waymo's costs are going to rise significantly at a time when Alphabet is investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI). This year alone, Alphabet expects to spend $75 billion on building out its AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于，随着进入更多市场，Waymo 的成本将显著上升，而此时 Alphabet 正在大力投资人工智能 (AI)。仅在今年，Alphabet 预计将在构建其 AI 基础设施上花费 750 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>In the midst of an AI battle involving many other tech companies, Alphabet is looking to protect its search dominance -- and it's investing in its Gemini chatbot to ensure that at least if users are relying on chatbots rather than Google Search, it's Gemini that they are using. The company is facing a considerable risk in its core business, one that it hasn't had to worry about in the past. AI chatbots could give other companies a way to finally wrestle away some valuable market share and ad spend from Alphabet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在与许多其他科技公司进行的 AI 竞争中，Alphabet 正在努力保护其搜索主导地位——并且正在投资其 Gemini 聊天机器人，以确保即使用户依赖聊天机器人而非 Google 搜索，使用的也是 Gemini。该公司在其核心业务中面临着相当大的风险，这是它过去不必担心的。AI 聊天机器人可能为其他公司提供了一个机会，最终从 Alphabet 手中夺走一些有价值的市场份额和广告支出。</p>
</div><h2>Waymo may unlock billions in value for Alphabet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Waymo 可能为 Alphabet 解锁数十亿美元的价值</h2>
</div><p>By spinning off Waymo, Alphabet may also be able to unlock a lot more value for itself and investors. Last year, Waymo was reportedly estimated to be worth more than $45 billion, based on a recent funding round. But with the business expanding and reaching more markets throughout the country, it's probable that Waymo's valuation will go much higher in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过剥离 Waymo，Alphabet 也可能为自己和投资者解锁更多的价值。去年，Waymo 的估值据报道超过 450 亿美元，基于最近的一轮融资。但随着业务的扩展并覆盖全国更多市场，Waymo 的估值在未来可能会大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>That money could help Alphabet pursue other acquisitions that are more complementary to AI and its core operations. Plus, by spinning it off, the company may also be able to save billions by not having to spend more money in expanding and growing Waymo's business. By focusing on their core competencies and strengths, individually, businesses can sometimes achieve greater efficiencies and results in the long run than if they are all under the same umbrella.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这笔资金可以帮助 Alphabet 追求其他与 AI 和其核心业务更为互补的收购。此外，通过剥离，Alphabet 还可能节省数十亿美元，因为不必在扩展和发展 Waymo 的业务上花费更多资金。通过专注于各自的核心竞争力和优势，企业有时可以在长期内实现比在同一框架下更大的效率和成果。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet has gotten Waymo to this point, but the more compelling move may be to retain a stake in the car company and let it operate as a separate entity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 已经将 Waymo 带到了这个阶段，但更具吸引力的举动可能是保留对这家汽车公司的股份，并让其作为独立实体运营。</p>
</div><h2>Why this could be a win-win for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么这对投资者来说可能是双赢</h2>
</div><p>A stock spinoff of Waymo could allow investors to have a stake in two fast-growing businesses: Alphabet and Waymo. And if you end up preferring one over the other, you could always sell your holdings in one of them. You only have to look at the excitement around <strong>Tesla</strong> and its robotaxis to see why investors may be thrilled with a Waymo spinoff as the stock could generate a lot of bullishness itself, and may even lure some investors away from Tesla if it's able to demonstrate superior results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Waymo 的股票剥离可能让投资者在两个快速增长的业务中拥有股份：Alphabet 和 Waymo。如果你最终更喜欢其中一个，你可以随时出售其中一个的持股。只需看看围绕 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 及其机器人出租车的热情，就能明白为什么投资者可能会对 Waymo 的剥离感到兴奋，因为该股票本身可能会产生大量的乐观情绪，甚至可能吸引一些投资者远离特斯拉，如果它能够展示出更优越的业绩。</p>
</div><p>Right now, investors have to take the whole package -- Alphabet with all of its other businesses. By spinning off Waymo, investors will have more choice, and that could result in a much higher valuation for the two businesses combined rather than where Alphabet sits today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，投资者必须接受整个包裹——包括 Alphabet 所有其他业务的 Alphabet。通过剥离 Waymo，投资者将有更多选择，这可能导致两个业务的合并估值远高于 Alphabet 当前的估值。</p>
</div><p>Regardless of what ends up happening, you may want to consider buying and holding Alphabet stock, especially given its modest valuation; it's trading at 18 times its trailing earnings. Either way, whether the company spins off Waymo or it doesn't, you can stand to benefit from its future growth. Under the best-case scenario, a spin-off does end up taking place and you'll have two terrific growth stocks in your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论最终发生什么，你可能都想考虑购买并持有 Alphabet 股票，特别是考虑到其适度的估值；它的交易价格为其过去收益的 18 倍。无论公司是否剥离 Waymo，你都可以从其未来增长中受益。在最佳情况下，剥离确实发生，你的投资组合中将有两只出色的成长股。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Alphabet Will Spin Off Waymo Within 5 Years

- Alphabet 的 Waymo 业务在机器人出租车领域有巨大增长潜力。  
- Waymo 去年每周平均完成 150,000 次出行，计划扩展至更多城市。  
- 分拆 Waymo 可能为 Alphabet 解锁更高估值，并让投资者受益于两家快速增长的公司。

预测：Alphabet 将在五年内分拆 Waymo