<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在 2025 年 6 月 2 日于华盛顿特区美联储国际金融部七周年会议上发表讲话。</p><p>Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images</p><p>美联储官员本周将发表对未来利率走势的看法，以及关税和中东动荡对经济的影响。</p><p>尽管利率的任何变动似乎不太可能，但将于周三结束的政策会议将传递重要信号，仍可能影响市场。</p><p>值得关注的最大事项之一是联邦公开市场委员会成员是否坚持他们之前对今年两次降息的预测，他们对通胀趋势的看法，以及主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对白宫推动更宽松货币政策的反应。</p><p>“美联储在 6 月会议上的主要信息将是，它仍然处于观望状态，” 美国银行经济学家阿迪提亚·巴哈夫在一份报告中表示。美国银行认为美联储今年不会降息，但会保留一次降息的可能性。“投资者应关注鲍威尔对劳动力数据放缓、近期温和的通胀数据以及持续的关税驱动通胀风险的看法。”</p><p>委员会的 “点阵图” 将成为投资者关注的焦点，显示各个成员的利率预期。</p><p>在 3 月的最后一次更新中，委员会表示今年相当于两次四分之一百分点的降息，这与当前市场定价一致。然而，这一预测是微妙的，仅有两位参与者改变他们的看法就会将中位数预测下调至一次降息。</p><p>此次会议是在复杂的地缘政治背景下进行的，特朗普总统的关税对通胀的影响迄今为止微乎其微，但未来仍不明朗。同时，特朗普和其他政府官员加大了对美联储降息的呼吁。</p><p>此外，以色列 - 伊朗冲突威胁到全球能源形势，为政策的导航提供了另一个变量。</p><p>“我们预计鲍威尔主席会重申他在 5 月新闻发布会上的信息，” 巴哈夫说。“政策处于良好状态，美联储没有急于采取行动。”</p><p>然而，形势可能会迅速变化。</p><p>尽管失业率保持在 4.2% 的低位，但 5 月的非农就业报告显示劳动力市场持续但逐渐放缓。最近的通胀数据也表明，关税对价格的影响在宏观层面上几乎没有，为美联储至少考虑放松政策提供了另一个动力。</p><p>“我们正处于一个通货紧缩的世界，” 前达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰在上周接受 CNBC 采访时表示。“如果不是因为这些即将实施的关税，我认为美联储会积极寻求降息。”</p><p>在会议即将召开之际，市场预计下一次降息将在 9 月进行，这将是 FOMC 在担忧劳动力市场的情况下实施的意外激进的半个百分点降息一周年。委员会在年底前又增加了两次四分之一百分点的降息，并自那时以来一直保持不变。</p><p>在当前气候下，“贸易紧张局势有所缓解，通胀保持低位，硬数据仅显示出有限的放缓迹象，” 高盛经济学家大卫·梅里克写道。</p><p>高盛预计美联储将坚持其两次降息的预测，但该公司的经济学家最终预计只会看到一次降息。</p><p>“我们相信，除了关税外，通胀消息实际上相当温和，我们仍在朝着最终降息的轨道上。虽然提前降息是可能的，但夏季关税对每月通胀数据的影响可能对 FOMC 在 12 月之前降息来说过于新鲜，” 梅里克说。</p><p>官员们还将更新他们对就业、通胀和国内生产总值增长的预测。</p><p>高盛预计 FOMC 将把 2024 年的通胀预期上调至 3%，比 3 月高出 0.2 个百分点。该公司还预计 GDP 增长将从 1.7% 略微下调至 1.5%，失业率将上升至 4.5%。</p><p>官员们将在夏季观察数据，并根据情况判断年内的行动，Evercore ISI 全球政策和中央银行战略负责人克里希纳·古哈表示。</p><p>“我们认为 FOMC 将在周三的 6 月会议上保持观望态度，强调它仍然预计在接下来的几个月中会了解到更多关于不断变化的前景，并继续将 9 月视为利率的下一个决策时点，” 古哈在一份报告中表示。</p>

<p>美联储预计将维持当前利率，但将提供可能影响市场的重要预测。需要关注的关键点包括美联储对潜在降息的立场、通胀趋势，以及对关税和地缘政治紧张局势等外部压力的反应。经济学家预测将采取谨慎的态度，重点关注劳动力市场数据和通胀，同时美联储对就业和 GDP 增长的预测也将进行更新。总体而言，美联储在即将召开的会议上可能会采取观望策略</p>

<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks during the Division of International Finance 7th Anniversary Conference at the Fed on June 02, 2025 in Washington, DC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在 2025 年 6 月 2 日于华盛顿特区美联储国际金融部七周年会议上发表讲话。</p>
</div><p>Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve officials get to voice their outlook this week on the future path of interest rates along with the impact that tariffs and Middle East turmoil will have on the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员本周将发表对未来利率走势的看法，以及关税和中东动荡对经济的影响。</p>
</div><p>While any movement on interest rates seems improbable, the policy meeting, which concludes Wednesday, will feature important signals that still could move markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管利率的任何变动似乎不太可能，但将于周三结束的政策会议将传递重要信号，仍可能影响市场。</p>
</div><p>Among the biggest things to watch will be whether Federal Open Market Committee members stick with their previous forecast of two rate cuts this year, how they see inflation trending, and any reaction from Chair Jerome Powell to what has become a concerted White House campaign for easier monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得关注的最大事项之一是联邦公开市场委员会成员是否坚持他们之前对今年两次降息的预测，他们对通胀趋势的看法，以及主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对白宫推动更宽松货币政策的反应。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Fed's main message at the June meeting will be that it remains comfortably in wait-and-see mode,&#34; Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said in a note. BofA thinks the Fed won't cut at all this year but will leave open the possibility for one reduction. &#34;Investors should focus on Powell's take on the softening labor data, the recent benign inflation prints and the risks of persistent tariff-driven inflation.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美联储在 6 月会议上的主要信息将是，它仍然处于观望状态，” 美国银行经济学家阿迪提亚·巴哈夫在一份报告中表示。美国银行认为美联储今年不会降息，但会保留一次降息的可能性。“投资者应关注鲍威尔对劳动力数据放缓、近期温和的通胀数据以及持续的关税驱动通胀风险的看法。”</p>
</div><p>The committee's &#34;dot plot&#34; grid of individual members' rate expectations will be front and center for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委员会的 “点阵图” 将成为投资者关注的焦点，显示各个成员的利率预期。</p>
</div><p>At the last update in March, the committee indicated the equivalent of two quarter percentage point reductions this year, which is in line with current market pricing. However, that was a close call, and just two participants changing their approach would swing the median forecast down to one cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 3 月的最后一次更新中，委员会表示今年相当于两次四分之一百分点的降息，这与当前市场定价一致。然而，这一预测是微妙的，仅有两位参与者改变他们的看法就会将中位数预测下调至一次降息。</p>
</div><p>The meeting comes against a complicated geopolitical backdrop in which the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on inflation has been minimal so far but unclear for the future. At the same time, Trump and other administration officials have stepped up their urging of the Fed to lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次会议是在复杂的地缘政治背景下进行的，特朗普总统的关税对通胀的影响迄今为止微乎其微，但未来仍不明朗。同时，特朗普和其他政府官员加大了对美联储降息的呼吁。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, the Israel-Iran conflict threatens to destabilize the global energy picture, providing yet another variable through which to navigate policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，以色列 - 伊朗冲突威胁到全球能源形势，为政策的导航提供了另一个变量。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We expect Chair Powell to repeat his message from the May press conference,&#34; Bhave said. &#34;Policy is in a good place and there is no hurry for the Fed to act.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们预计鲍威尔主席会重申他在 5 月新闻发布会上的信息，” 巴哈夫说。“政策处于良好状态，美联储没有急于采取行动。”</p>
</div><p>However, the landscape could change quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，形势可能会迅速变化。</p>
</div><p>While the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, the May nonfarm payrolls report showed a continuing if gradual softening in the labor market. The most recent inflation data also indicated that tariffs have done little to impact prices at least on a macro scale, adding another incentive for the Fed to at least think about easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管失业率保持在 4.2% 的低位，但 5 月的非农就业报告显示劳动力市场持续但逐渐放缓。最近的通胀数据也表明，关税对价格的影响在宏观层面上几乎没有，为美联储至少考虑放松政策提供了另一个动力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We're in a disinflating world,&#34; former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said in a CNBC interview last week. &#34;If it weren't for these prospective tariffs that will flow through and are flowing through, I think the Fed would be on their front foot looking to cut rates.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们正处于一个通货紧缩的世界，” 前达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰在上周接受 CNBC 采访时表示。“如果不是因为这些即将实施的关税，我认为美联储会积极寻求降息。”</p>
</div><p>As things stand heading into the meeting, markets are pricing in the next cut to come in September, which would be the one-year anniversary of a surprisingly aggressive half percentage point reduction the FOMC instituted amid concerns over the labor market. The committee added two more quarter-point moves by the end of the year and has been on hold since.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在会议即将召开之际，市场预计下一次降息将在 9 月进行，这将是 FOMC 在担忧劳动力市场的情况下实施的意外激进的半个百分点降息一周年。委员会在年底前又增加了两次四分之一百分点的降息，并自那时以来一直保持不变。</p>
</div><p>In the current climate, &#34;trade tensions have diminished somewhat, inflation has been low, and the hard data have shown only limited signs of softening,&#34; Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前气候下，“贸易紧张局势有所缓解，通胀保持低位，硬数据仅显示出有限的放缓迹象，” 高盛经济学家大卫·梅里克写道。</p>
</div><p>Goldman sees the Fed sticking with its two-cut forecast but the firm's economists expect ultimately to see only one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛预计美联储将坚持其两次降息的预测，但该公司的经济学家最终预计只会看到一次降息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We are confident that we are still on track for eventual rate cuts because aside from the tariffs, the inflation news has actually been fairly soft. While an earlier cut is possible, the peak summer tariff effects on the monthly inflation prints will most likely be too fresh for the FOMC to cut before December,&#34; Mericle said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们相信，除了关税外，通胀消息实际上相当温和，我们仍在朝着最终降息的轨道上。虽然提前降息是可能的，但夏季关税对每月通胀数据的影响可能对 FOMC 在 12 月之前降息来说过于新鲜，” 梅里克说。</p>
</div><p>Officials also will update their projections for employment, inflation and gross domestic product growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官员们还将更新他们对就业、通胀和国内生产总值增长的预测。</p>
</div><p>Goldman sees the FOMC taking up the inflation expectation to 3% for all of 2024, 0.2 percentage point higher than March. The firm also sees a slight lowering of GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.7% and a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛预计 FOMC 将把 2024 年的通胀预期上调至 3%，比 3 月高出 0.2 个百分点。该公司还预计 GDP 增长将从 1.7% 略微下调至 1.5%，失业率将上升至 4.5%。</p>
</div><p>Officials will then use the summer to watch the data and judge from there what it will do later in the year, said Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官员们将在夏季观察数据，并根据情况判断年内的行动，Evercore ISI 全球政策和中央银行战略负责人克里希纳·古哈表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We think the FOMC will maintain its wait-and-see posture at its June meeting Wednesday, underline it still expects to learn a lot more about the evolving outlook over the next several months, and continue to point to September as the next decision point on rates,&#34; Guha said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为 FOMC 将在周三的 6 月会议上保持观望态度，强调它仍然预计在接下来的几个月中会了解到更多关于不断变化的前景，并继续将 9 月视为利率的下一个决策时点，” 古哈在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div>

The Fed is likely to keep rates the same, but give a forecast that moves markets. What to expect

- 美联储主席鲍威尔在会议上讨论利率前景及经济影响。  
- 预计美联储将维持观望态度，可能在 9 月做出利率决策。  
- 劳动力市场和通胀数据将影响未来政策走向。  

美联储可能会维持利率不变，但预计会发布一个影响市场的预测。我们应该期待什么