<p>Rae Wee 对欧洲和全球市场的前景分析</p><p>市场在周三的美联储利率决策前面临着全球经济、贸易和地缘政治关系的不确定性。</p><p>随着以色列与伊朗的空战进入第六天，七国集团富裕国家在乌克兰冲突上难以达成一致，以及美国经济脆弱迹象的增多，负面新闻的不断涌现给投资者带来了很少的喘息机会。</p><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普呼吁伊朗无条件投降，并表示对伊朗采取更强硬立场的言论也加剧了人们对美国更大介入的担忧。</p><p>周三市场再次呈现风险规避的基调，亚洲股市下跌，美元则保持强势。</p><p>股指期货同样指向欧洲开盘大多走低，尽管油价在前一交易日上涨超过 4% 后稍微企稳。</p><p>在全球背景严峻的情况下，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔及其同事面临着越来越困难的局面，市场对中央银行政策决策的关注将集中在其更新的经济预测摘要上。</p><p>目前，市场仍在预计到 12 月美联储将降息两次，但如果鲍威尔在当天稍晚时采取更鹰派的语气，这一预期可能会发生变化。</p><p>在美联储结果公布之前，英国的通胀数据也将在周三公布，预计消费者价格在经历了 4 月份超预期的激增后，5 月份将略有放缓。</p><p>这一数据发布恰逢英国央行周四的政策决策，市场普遍预期央行将维持利率不变。</p><p>尽管如此，投资者仍将关注经济放缓和工资增长疲软是否会加快宽松的步伐。</p><p>周三，英国一家主要商业团体因特朗普的关税和工资税增加的逆风，调低了对 2025 年及明年经济增长的预测，调查显示。</p><p>可能影响周三市场的关键发展：</p><ul><li>美联储利率决策</li><li>英国消费者物价指数（5 月）想要跟上最新的关税新闻吗？我们的新每日新闻摘要提供了影响全球贸易的主要市场动态头条。请在此注册 Tariff Watch。</li></ul><p>美国原油价格（以美元计）每桶</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c1d9d89e8e3896c76000574d1d3734ec?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="844" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c1d9d89e8e3896c76000574d1d3734ec"/></figure><p>英国通胀的变化情况</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/8e8fbb3232a71d64169cce4e7b39b845?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="918" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/8e8fbb3232a71d64169cce4e7b39b845"/></figure><p>（编辑：Muralikumar Anantharaman）</p>

<p>市场在美联储的利率决策前面临不确定性，受到全球经济脆弱性、地缘政治紧张局势以及美国总统特朗普对伊朗的强硬立场的影响。亚洲股市下跌，而美元保持强势。投资者预计到 12 月美联储将降息两次，这取决于鲍威尔的语气。预计英国的通胀数据将显示出轻微放缓，这将影响英格兰银行即将做出的政策决定。由于关税和税收增加，英国一家领先的商业团体下调了对 2025 年及明年的增长预测</p>

<p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rae Wee 对欧洲和全球市场的前景分析</p>
</div><p>Markets head into Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rates decision with much uncertainty around the global economy, trade and geopolitical ties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场在周三的美联储利率决策前面临着全球经济、贸易和地缘政治关系的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>With the Israel-Iran air war entering a sixth day, the G7 wealthy nations struggling to find unity over the conflict in Ukraine, and more signs of fragility in the U.S. economy, the drumbeat of negative headlines offered little respite for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着以色列与伊朗的空战进入第六天，七国集团富裕国家在乌克兰冲突上难以达成一致，以及美国经济脆弱迹象的增多，负面新闻的不断涌现给投资者带来了很少的喘息机会。</p>
</div><p>U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for Iran’s unconditional surrender and comments from him suggesting a more aggressive stance toward Iran have also stoked worries of greater U.S. involvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普呼吁伊朗无条件投降，并表示对伊朗采取更强硬立场的言论也加剧了人们对美国更大介入的担忧。</p>
</div><p>It was again a risk-off tone in markets on Wednesday, with shares in Asia falling and the dollar buoyant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三市场再次呈现风险规避的基调，亚洲股市下跌，美元则保持强势。</p>
</div><p>Stock futures similarly pointed to a mostly lower opening in Europe, though oil prices steadied a little after surging more than 4% in the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股指期货同样指向欧洲开盘大多走低，尽管油价在前一交易日上涨超过 4% 后稍微企稳。</p>
</div><p>It’s an increasingly difficult line for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to tread given the challenging global backdrop, and much attention on the central bank’s policy decision will be on its updated Summary of Economic Projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球背景严峻的情况下，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔及其同事面临着越来越困难的局面，市场对中央银行政策决策的关注将集中在其更新的经济预测摘要上。</p>
</div><p>For now, markets are still pricing in two Fed cuts by December, but that could very well change should Powell strike a more hawkish tone later in the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，市场仍在预计到 12 月美联储将降息两次，但如果鲍威尔在当天稍晚时采取更鹰派的语气，这一预期可能会发生变化。</p>
</div><p>Ahead of the Fed outcome, UK inflation data is also due on Wednesday, where consumer prices are expected to have slowed slightly in May after April’s bigger-than-expected surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储结果公布之前，英国的通胀数据也将在周三公布，预计消费者价格在经历了 4 月份超预期的激增后，5 月份将略有放缓。</p>
</div><p>The reading comes ahead of a policy decision by the Bank of England on Thursday, where expectations are for the central bank to keep rates on hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一数据发布恰逢英国央行周四的政策决策，市场普遍预期央行将维持利率不变。</p>
</div><p>Still, investors will be looking for hints on whether a slowing economy and weaker wage growth could speed up the pace of easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，投资者仍将关注经济放缓和工资增长疲软是否会加快宽松的步伐。</p>
</div><p>One of Britain’s leading business groups on Wednesday slashed its forecast for economic growth in 2025 and next year due to headwinds from Trump’s tariffs and an increase in payroll taxes, a survey showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三，英国一家主要商业团体因特朗普的关税和工资税增加的逆风，调低了对 2025 年及明年经济增长的预测，调查显示。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影响周三市场的关键发展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Federal Reserve rate decision</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美联储利率决策</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>UK CPI (May) Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>英国消费者物价指数（5 月）想要跟上最新的关税新闻吗？我们的新每日新闻摘要提供了影响全球贸易的主要市场动态头条。请在此注册 Tariff Watch。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>US crude oil price in USD per barrel</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国原油价格（以美元计）每桶</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3ZAfJKO" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3ZAfJKO"/></p>
<p>How inflation in the UK has moved</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国通胀的变化情况</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/43lsOJ2" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/43lsOJ2"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：Muralikumar Anantharaman）</p>
</div>

Gloom pervades ahead of Fed meet's outcome

- 市场在美联储利率决策前充满不确定性。  
- 以色列与伊朗的冲突持续，全球经济面临挑战。  
- 英国通胀数据将影响市场预期，投资者关注经济放缓迹象。  

在美联储会议结果公布前，悲观情绪笼罩