<p>政策制定者预计增长放缓，失业率和通胀上升</p>
<p>现在的展望是利率削减减少，放松步伐放缓</p>
<p>特朗普七月关税截止日期带来的风险依然存在</p>
<p>作者：霍华德·施奈德</p>
<p>华盛顿，6 月 20 日（路透社）——唐纳德·特朗普总统在一月份的就职承诺 “美国的黄金时代现在开始” 在美联储官员的展望中仍未实现，他们目前认为他的政策正在减缓经济，抬高失业率和通胀，并且由于尚未解决的关税争论，前景变得更加不明朗，这可能在未来几周带来新的冲击。美国中央银行的反应是将计划中的利率削减搁置，可能要等到秋季，同时在关税和其他政府优先事项的辩论展开时，预计未来的利率削减步伐将更为缓慢，最终达到更高的停止点。实际上，这将更高的借贷成本嵌入美联储政策制定者的展望中，以防范他们现在认为在未来几个月通胀将高于特朗普第二次就职前的预期。这对特朗普来说并不是好消息，他曾称美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 “愚蠢”，因为没有立即大幅削减利率。这对希望降低融资成本的美国消费者和购房者来说也同样不受欢迎。而且这使得美联储在某种程度上与其他继续降息的中央银行步调不一致。</p>
<p>但这确实突显了特朗普早期政策举措，特别是关税，如何重塑了世界最大经济体的短期展望，去年年底时被认为将继续保持高于趋势的增长、充分就业和通胀稳步下降至美联储 2% 的目标。政策制定者在六个月前预期的稳定利率削减系列已被更为谨慎的路径所取代，他们在等待特朗普对关税的最终决定，并观察就业市场、消费者支出和通胀的演变。鲍威尔在周三对记者表示：“我们感觉在夏季将会对关税有更多的了解。” 美联储在连续第四次会议上将基准隔夜利率维持在 4.25%-4.50% 的区间，并发布了新的预测，显示到今年年底通胀将大幅上升，之后缓慢下降。特朗普抓住最近疲软的通胀数据来主张降息，周四重申美联储应该将基准利率削减近一半，并在本周早些时候指出，欧洲中央银行和其他央行已继续放松货币政策。</p>
<p>但是，谈到迄今为止实施的关税的影响时，鲍威尔表示：“我们没有预期它们会在现在显现出来，而它们确实没有……我们将看到它们在未来几个月的影响程度……这将影响我们的思考。”</p>
<p>信心不足 此时，投资者预计美联储将在 9 月 16-17 日的会议上降息，尽管这在很大程度上取决于鲍威尔在夏季观察和等待期间发生的事情。特朗普最激进的关税计划，即在四月初 “解放日” 宣布对大多数贸易伙伴征收的关税，在债券收益率飙升、股市下跌以及经济学家开始预测美国经济衰退后被推迟。暂停将于 7 月 9 日结束，包括欧盟在内的国家应在那之前达成协议，否则将面临高达 50% 的进口关税。</p>
<p>迄今为止唯一完成的协议是与英国达成的有限协议。</p>
<p>尽管美联储本周的新政策声明称 “对经济前景的不确定性自 5 月 6-7 日会议以来有所减弱”，当时围绕贸易问题的波动仍然很强烈，但情况可能会因 7 月 9 日的截止日期而迅速改变。</p>
<p>“我们尚不清楚他们将会达成什么，” 鲍威尔说。在上个月的会议上，美联储工作人员的预测认为今年经济衰退的可能性 “几乎与基线预测的放缓但持续增长一样高”。</p>
<p>此后情况有所改善。鲍威尔在周三表示，经济仍然 “稳健”，并补充说，随着最严重关税风险的减弱，公司开始思考如何适应更温和的关税。</p>
<p>“企业在四月后也有些震惊……现在人们正在逐步适应，感觉与三个月前相比要积极和建设性得多，” 他说。股票价格也在上涨，推动美元地位下降的国债收益率飙升也有所缓解。</p>
<h3>前景黯淡</h3>
<p>但避免衰退与美联储在去年年底时的情况相去甚远，当时它正接近于从 COVID-19 疫情时代的高通胀中实现 “软着陆”。经济处于充分就业状态，稳步高于趋势增长，通胀有望降至美联储的 2% 目标，中央银行预计将稳步降低借贷成本。“美国经济表现非常好，” 鲍威尔在美联储 12 月 17-18 日的会议后表示，那次会议上，工作人员和官员刚开始思考贸易战的影响，而这场贸易战的范围远超他们的预期。“前景相当光明。”</p>
<p>但自那以来前景已黯淡。在本周发布的预测中，美联储政策制定者对国内生产总值增长的中位展望已降至 1.4%，远低于去年 12 月预测的 2.1%，预计失业率将从当前的 4.2% 上升至年底的 4.5%。这将是自 2017 年初特朗普第一任期开始以来，除了疫情失业激增外的最高水平。</p>
<p>鲍威尔表示，曾经 “逐渐下降” 的通胀现在预计在今年上升至 3%，并将在 2026 年前保持在美联储目标的近半个百分点以上。</p>
<p>鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场依然稳健，但他警告说，这一评估可能会改变，政策制定者表示，如果就业情况恶化，他们的政策预期可能会迅速调整。</p>
<p>鲍威尔说：“劳动力需求正在减弱。裁员并不多，但工作创造也不多。如果你失业了，找到工作是很困难的……这是我们非常仔细关注的一个平衡，因为如果发生重大裁员，而找工作的比例仍然如此低，失业率将会很快上升。”</p>
<p>图表 - 美联储利率前景上调</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/ECONOMY/akpexgxjxvr/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="1058" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/ECONOMY/akpexgxjxvr/chart.png"/></p>
<p>图表 - 美联储对 2025 年的看法</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/PROJECTIONS/dwvkjeymzpm/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="762" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/PROJECTIONS/dwvkjeymzpm/chart.png"/></p>
<p>图表 - 利率与通胀</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gkvlgnaywpb/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1648" height="1170" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gkvlgnaywpb/chart.png"/></p>

<p>美联储官员预计经济增长放缓、失业率上升和通货膨胀，这与特朗普的经济承诺相悖。由于关税辩论即将展开，利率削减暂时搁置，未来削减的路径仍不确定。投资者预计在九月份会有一次降息，但由于即将进行的关税谈判，仍存在不确定性。美联储主席鲍威尔指出，尽管经济稳健，但自去年以来前景已变得暗淡，衰退风险依然存在。随着企业适应不断变化的关税条件，市场情绪变得更加积极</p>

<p>Policymakers project slower growth, higher unemployment and inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者预计增长放缓，失业率和通胀上升</p>
</div><p>Outlook is now for fewer interest rate cuts, slower pace of easing</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在的展望是利率削减减少，放松步伐放缓</p>
</div><p>Risks remain with Trump’s July tariff deadline coming</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普七月关税截止日期带来的风险依然存在</p>
</div><p>By Howard Schneider</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：霍华德·施奈德</p>
</div><p>WASHINGTON, June 20 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s inauguration promise in January that “the golden age of America begins right now” remains unfulfilled in the outlook of Federal Reserve officials who so far see his policies slowing the economy, raising unemployment and inflation, and clouding the horizon with a still-unresolved tariff debate that could deliver a fresh shock in coming weeks. The U.S. central bank’s response has been to put planned interest rate cuts on hold until perhaps the fall while the debates over tariffs and other administration priorities unfold, and to project a slower eventual pace of rate cuts to a higher stopping point. Effectively it embeds steeper borrowing costs into Fed policymakers’ outlook to insure against inflation they now see as higher in coming months than they did before Trump took office for a second time. That isn’t welcome news for Trump, who has called Fed Chair Jerome Powell “stupid” for not slashing rates immediately. It is no more welcome for U.S. consumers and homebuyers hoping for lower financing costs. And it puts the Fed somewhat out of step with other central banks that continue to lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿，6 月 20 日（路透社）——唐纳德·特朗普总统在一月份的就职承诺 “美国的黄金时代现在开始” 在美联储官员的展望中仍未实现，他们目前认为他的政策正在减缓经济，抬高失业率和通胀，并且由于尚未解决的关税争论，前景变得更加不明朗，这可能在未来几周带来新的冲击。美国中央银行的反应是将计划中的利率削减搁置，可能要等到秋季，同时在关税和其他政府优先事项的辩论展开时，预计未来的利率削减步伐将更为缓慢，最终达到更高的停止点。实际上，这将更高的借贷成本嵌入美联储政策制定者的展望中，以防范他们现在认为在未来几个月通胀将高于特朗普第二次就职前的预期。这对特朗普来说并不是好消息，他曾称美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 “愚蠢”，因为没有立即大幅削减利率。这对希望降低融资成本的美国消费者和购房者来说也同样不受欢迎。而且这使得美联储在某种程度上与其他继续降息的中央银行步调不一致。</p>
</div><p>But it does highlight how much Trump’s early policy moves, particularly on tariffs, have reshaped the short-term outlook for the world’s largest economy, which at the end of last year was seen on track for continued above-trend growth, full employment and inflation steadily falling to the Fed’s 2% target. The steady series of rate cuts policymakers anticipated just six months ago has been replaced with a more tentative path as they wait for Trump’s final decisions on tariffs and watch how the job market, consumer spending and inflation evolve. “We feel like we’re going to learn a great deal more over the summer on tariffs,” Powell told reporters on Wednesday after the Fed held its benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range for the fourth straight meeting, and issued new projections showing inflation rising substantially by the end of this year and coming down slowly after that point. Trump has latched on to recent weak inflation readings to argue for rate cuts, reiterating on Thursday that the Fed should slash its benchmark rate nearly in half and noting earlier in the week that the European Central Bank and others had kept easing monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这确实突显了特朗普早期政策举措，特别是关税，如何重塑了世界最大经济体的短期展望，去年年底时被认为将继续保持高于趋势的增长、充分就业和通胀稳步下降至美联储 2% 的目标。政策制定者在六个月前预期的稳定利率削减系列已被更为谨慎的路径所取代，他们在等待特朗普对关税的最终决定，并观察就业市场、消费者支出和通胀的演变。鲍威尔在周三对记者表示：“我们感觉在夏季将会对关税有更多的了解。” 美联储在连续第四次会议上将基准隔夜利率维持在 4.25%-4.50% 的区间，并发布了新的预测，显示到今年年底通胀将大幅上升，之后缓慢下降。特朗普抓住最近疲软的通胀数据来主张降息，周四重申美联储应该将基准利率削减近一半，并在本周早些时候指出，欧洲中央银行和其他央行已继续放松货币政策。</p>
</div><p>But, referring to the impact of the tariffs imposed so far, Powell said “we hadn’t expected them to show up much by now, and they haven’t … We will see the extent to which they do over coming months … That’s going to inform our thinking.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，谈到迄今为止实施的关税的影响时，鲍威尔表示：“我们没有预期它们会在现在显现出来，而它们确实没有……我们将看到它们在未来几个月的影响程度……这将影响我们的思考。”</p>
</div><p>LITTLE CONFIDENCE At this point, investors expect the Fed to cut rates at its September 16-17 meeting, though much will depend on what happens during Powell’s summer of watching and waiting. The most aggressive of Trump’s tariff plans, levies on most trading partners announced on “Liberation Day” in early April, were postponed after bond yields spiked, stocks dropped, and economists began penciling in a U.S. recession. The pause ends on July 9, with countries, including those in the European Union’s combined trading bloc, supposed to negotiate deals by then or face steep import levies - 50% in the case of the EU.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信心不足 此时，投资者预计美联储将在 9 月 16-17 日的会议上降息，尽管这在很大程度上取决于鲍威尔在夏季观察和等待期间发生的事情。特朗普最激进的关税计划，即在四月初 “解放日” 宣布对大多数贸易伙伴征收的关税，在债券收益率飙升、股市下跌以及经济学家开始预测美国经济衰退后被推迟。暂停将于 7 月 9 日结束，包括欧盟在内的国家应在那之前达成协议，否则将面临高达 50% 的进口关税。</p>
</div><p>The only completed deal so far is a limited agreement with Britain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迄今为止唯一完成的协议是与英国达成的有限协议。</p>
</div><p>Though the Fed’s new policy statement this week said “uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished” since its May 6-7 meeting, when volatility around the trade issue was still intense, the situation could change quickly based on the July 9 deadline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美联储本周的新政策声明称 “对经济前景的不确定性自 5 月 6-7 日会议以来有所减弱”，当时围绕贸易问题的波动仍然很强烈，但情况可能会因 7 月 9 日的截止日期而迅速改变。</p>
</div><p>“We don’t yet know with any confidence where they will settle out,” Powell said. At the meeting last month, a Fed staff projection regarded a recession this year to be “almost as likely as the baseline forecast” of slowing but ongoing growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们尚不清楚他们将会达成什么，” 鲍威尔说。在上个月的会议上，美联储工作人员的预测认为今年经济衰退的可能性 “几乎与基线预测的放缓但持续增长一样高”。</p>
</div><p>The situation has since improved somewhat. Powell on Wednesday said the economy remains “solid,” adding that as the risk of the most severe tariffs has abated, companies have begun to puzzle through how they might adapt to more modest levies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此后情况有所改善。鲍威尔在周三表示，经济仍然 “稳健”，并补充说，随着最严重关税风险的减弱，公司开始思考如何适应更温和的关税。</p>
</div><p>“Businesses were in a bit of a shock after April too … There’s a very different feeling now that people are working their way through this … It feels much more positive and constructive than it did three months ago,” he said. Prices of equities have marched higher as well, and the spike in Treasury yields that drove talk of the diminished status of the dollar has also eased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“企业在四月后也有些震惊……现在人们正在逐步适应，感觉与三个月前相比要积极和建设性得多，” 他说。股票价格也在上涨，推动美元地位下降的国债收益率飙升也有所缓解。</p>
</div><h3>DIMMER OUTLOOK</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>前景黯淡</h3>
</div><p>But skirting a recession is a large step from where the Fed was at the end of last year, when it was in sight of a “soft landing” from the high inflation of the COVID-19 pandemic era. The economy was at full employment and steadily growing above trend, inflation was on track to fall to the Fed’s 2% target, and the central bank expected to steadily ease borrowing costs. “The U.S. economy is just performing very, very well,” Powell said after the Fed’s December 17-18 meeting, a session at which staff and officials had just begun thinking through the implications of a trade war that became much bigger in scope than they expected. “The outlook is pretty bright.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但避免衰退与美联储在去年年底时的情况相去甚远，当时它正接近于从 COVID-19 疫情时代的高通胀中实现 “软着陆”。经济处于充分就业状态，稳步高于趋势增长，通胀有望降至美联储的 2% 目标，中央银行预计将稳步降低借贷成本。“美国经济表现非常好，” 鲍威尔在美联储 12 月 17-18 日的会议后表示，那次会议上，工作人员和官员刚开始思考贸易战的影响，而这场贸易战的范围远超他们的预期。“前景相当光明。”</p>
</div><p>It has dimmed since then. In projections issued this week, Fed policymakers’ median outlook for gross domestic product growth had fallen to 1.4%, well below trend, from the 2.1% projected in December, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from the current 4.2% to 4.5% by the end of the year. That would be the highest level, outside of the pandemic unemployment spike, since early 2017, when Trump’s first term was starting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但自那以来前景已黯淡。在本周发布的预测中，美联储政策制定者对国内生产总值增长的中位展望已降至 1.4%，远低于去年 12 月预测的 2.1%，预计失业率将从当前的 4.2% 上升至年底的 4.5%。这将是自 2017 年初特朗普第一任期开始以来，除了疫情失业激增外的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Inflation that Powell said had been “grinding down” is now anticipated to rise to 3% this year and remain nearly half a percentage point above the Fed’s target through 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔表示，曾经 “逐渐下降” 的通胀现在预计在今年上升至 3%，并将在 2026 年前保持在美联储目标的近半个百分点以上。</p>
</div><p>The job market remains solid, Powell said, but he cautioned that assessment could change, and policymakers have said that their policy expectations could shift quickly if employment falters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场依然稳健，但他警告说，这一评估可能会改变，政策制定者表示，如果就业情况恶化，他们的政策预期可能会迅速调整。</p>
</div><p>“Labor demand is softening,” Powell said. “There’s not a lot of layoffs, but there’s not a lot of job creation. If you’re out of work, it is hard to find a job … That is an equilibrium we watch very, very carefully because if there were to be significant layoffs and the job-finding rate were to remain this low, you would have an increase in unemployment fairly quickly.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔说：“劳动力需求正在减弱。裁员并不多，但工作创造也不多。如果你失业了，找到工作是很困难的……这是我们非常仔细关注的一个平衡，因为如果发生重大裁员，而找工作的比例仍然如此低，失业率将会很快上升。”</p>
</div><p>Graphic-The Fed rate outlook shifts higher</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 美联储利率前景上调</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/ECONOMY/akpexgxjxvr/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/ECONOMY/akpexgxjxvr/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Fed views of 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 美联储对 2025 年的看法</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/PROJECTIONS/dwvkjeymzpm/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-FED/PROJECTIONS/dwvkjeymzpm/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Rates and inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 利率与通胀</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gkvlgnaywpb/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gkvlgnaywpb/chart.png"/></p>

Trump's economic 'golden age' meets Fed's brass tacks

- 美联储预测经济增长放缓，失业率和通胀上升。  
- 特朗普的关税政策影响经济前景，导致利率下调计划推迟。  
- 预计 2025 年 GDP 增长率降至 1.4%，失业率升至 4.5%。

特朗普的经济 “黄金时代” 遭遇美联储的实际问题