<p>在年末，亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特将正式辞去 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.34%）（BRK.B -0.04%）首席执行官职务，并将权力交给预定的接班人格雷格·阿贝尔。在他 60 年的领导生涯中，这位恰如其名的 “奥马哈先知” 监督了其公司 A 类股票（BRK.A）自 1965 年以来累计超过 5,884,000% 的回报，截至 6 月 27 日收盘。</p>
<p>尽管巴菲特已经 94 岁，但投资者仍然翘首以待，期待他买卖哪些股票的线索。毕竟，模仿他的交易活动在过去几十年中一直非常盈利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyNzAvYnVmZmV0dDEzLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyNzAvYnVmZmV0dDEzLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦向证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的季度 13F 表格，以及部分 4 号表格，为投资者提供了巴菲特购买和出售哪些股票的简明快照。</p>
<p>根据一系列监管文件，我们知道这位奥马哈先知在连续三个季度中一直是 <strong>美国银行</strong>（BAC 0.42%）股票的持续卖方。但我们也知道，他正在大举投资一家历史上估值便宜的公司，这家公司是华尔街为数不多的合法垄断之一。</p>
<h2>伯克希尔哈撒韦的亿万富翁首席正在兑现美国银行的收益</h2>
<p>在伯克希尔哈撒韦持有一家上市公司 10% 或更大股份的情况下，例如 2024 年 7 月的美国银行，必须在两个工作日内向 SEC 提交 4 号表格。4 号表格详细列出了股票的所有买卖活动。</p>
<p>在 2024 年 7 月 17 日，沃伦·巴菲特开始抛售美国银行（也称为 “BofA”）的股票。在 2024 年 7 月 17 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日期间，伯克希尔的亿万首席抛售了超过 4.01 亿股 BofA，减少了约 39%。</p>
<p>这些抛售中的一些可能仅仅代表简单的获利了结。在巴菲特加大对 BofA 的抛售活动之前，他在伯克希尔 2024 年年度股东大会上表示，边际企业所得税的最高税率未来可能会上升。由于特朗普总统的税收减免法案将边际企业所得税的最高税率降低至 21%，这是自 1939 年以来的最低水平，巴菲特暗示，投资者在事后会感激伯克希尔哈撒韦以有利的税率锁定收益。</p>
<p>但也有可能更阴暗的因素在巴菲特决定抛售超过 4.01 亿股美国银行的过程中发挥了作用。</p>
<p>例如，美国银行是美国货币中心银行中对利率最敏感的银行。当美联储在 2022 年 3 月至 2023 年 7 月迅速提高利率以遏制四十年来最高的国内通胀率时，美国银行的利息收入大幅上升。然而，随着国家中央银行现在进入降息周期，美国银行的利息收入可能会比其他大型美国银行更快下降。伯克希尔的亿万首席可能预见到利息收入的下降。</p>
<p>另一个可能促使沃伦·巴菲特抛售约 39% 美国银行股份的原因——尽管这仍然是伯克希尔按市值计算的最大持股之一——是公司的估值。尽管巴菲特的一些不成文投资规则偶尔会被打破，但伯克希尔首席执行官坚持的唯一不变的规则是估值。他不会追逐那些股票没有提供感知价值的公司。</p>
<p>当奥马哈先知在 2011 年 8 月首次投资于 BofA 的优先股时，其普通股的交易价格比账面价值低 62%。截至 6 月 27 日，BofA 的普通股现在以 29% 的_溢价_交易于账面价值之上。虽然这并不算特别昂贵，但在过去 15 年中，BofA 的估值远高于平均水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyNzAvc2lyaXVzeG0taW4tZGFzaC1yYWRpby5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="396" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyNzAvc2lyaXVzeG0taW4tZGFzaC1yYWRpby5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Sirius XM。</p>
<h2>沃伦·巴菲特正在加码这家超级便宜的合法垄断公司股票</h2>
<p>尽管连续 10 个季度净卖出股票，总额达到 1744 亿美元（合计），但伯克希尔哈撒韦最聪明的投资头脑还是找到了几家符合所有标准的公司。他似乎对卫星广播提供商 <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>（SIRI 1.95%）情有独钟。</p>
<p>自去年 9 月第二周 Sirius XM 的普通股与多个类别的跟踪股票 Liberty Sirius XM Group 合并以来，巴菲特以一定的频率按下买入按钮。在 2024 年 9 月 30 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日期间，额外购买了 14,621,663 股 Sirius XM，使伯克希尔哈撒韦在该公司的总持股达到 119,776,692 股。这占 Sirius XM 流通股的 35% 以上。</p>
<p>Sirius XM 作为投资的广泛吸引力很简单：它作为合法垄断运营。尽管它仍面临来自传统和在线广播公司的听众竞争，但没有其他公司被授权运营卫星广播。这一独特的特征确实赋予了 Sirius XM 一定的订阅定价权，而传统和在线广播公司则难以匹敌。</p>
<p>但或许比 Sirius XM 的合法垄断地位更重要的是它的收入生成方式。传统广播提供商几乎所有的收入都来自广告。尽管在漫长的经济扩张期间，这种方式效果很好，但在恐惧加剧和/或经济下滑期间，销售可能会迅速枯竭。</p>
<p>相比之下，Sirius XM 第一季度的净销售额中仅有 19% 来自广告。其大部分收入（77.5%，净）来自订阅。当股市或美国经济面临困难时，订阅者取消或更改服务的可能性远低于企业削减营销预算的可能性。这为 Sirius XM 带来了更为稳定的现金流。</p>
<p>另一个帮助 Sirius XM 与传统广播公司区分开来的因素是其成本结构的部分可预测性。虽然版权和人才获取成本会在不同季度之间有所波动，但传输和设备成本无论公司拥有多少订阅者都相对稳定。这意味着稳定或增长的订阅者基础，加上 Sirius XM 合理强大的定价能力，应该会随着时间的推移导致运营利润率的扩张。</p>
<p>最后，Sirius XM 股票为沃伦·巴菲特提供了他在华尔街近三年来一直难以找到的东西：一个好交易。即使 &#34;巴菲特指标&#34; 仅略低于历史最高点，Sirius XM 的股票仍可在 2025 年和 2026 年的预测收益的不到 8 倍的价格被购入。这相较于过去五年其平均的过去 12 个月收益倍数，折扣达 60%；与自 2020 年以来的平均前瞻性收益倍数相比，折扣为 45%。</p>

天狼星XM广播

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特已出售伯克希尔哈撒韦在美国银行的 39% 股份，在 2024 年 7 月至 2025 年 3 月之间转让了超过 4.01 亿股。这一决定是在对利息收入下降的担忧中做出的，因为美联储进入降息周期。尽管如此，巴菲特仍在投资天狼星 XM 广播，自 2024 年 9 月以来购买了超过 1400 万股，表明他正向他认为被低估的公司转移投资</p>

<p>At the end of the year, billionaire Warren Buffett will officially step down as <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A -0.34%) (BRK.B -0.04%) CEO and hand the reins over to predetermined successor Greg Abel. In his 60 years at the helm, the aptly named &#34;Oracle of Omaha&#34; has overseen a cumulative return in his company's Class A shares (BRK.A) totaling more than 5,884,000%, as of the closing bell on June 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在年末，亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特将正式辞去 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.34%）（BRK.B -0.04%）首席执行官职务，并将权力交给预定的接班人格雷格·阿贝尔。在他 60 年的领导生涯中，这位恰如其名的 “奥马哈先知” 监督了其公司 A 类股票（BRK.A）自 1965 年以来累计超过 5,884,000% 的回报，截至 6 月 27 日收盘。</p>
</div><p>Although Buffett is 94 years old, investors still wait on the edge of their seat for clues as to which stocks he's buying and selling. After all, mirroring his trading activity has been highly profitable for decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管巴菲特已经 94 岁，但投资者仍然翘首以待，期待他买卖哪些股票的线索。毕竟，模仿他的交易活动在过去几十年中一直非常盈利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyNzAvYnVmZmV0dDEzLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823270%2Fbuffett13-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway's quarterly Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), along with select Form 4s, provides investors with a concise snapshot of which stocks Warren Buffett has been purchasing and selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦向证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的季度 13F 表格，以及部分 4 号表格，为投资者提供了巴菲特购买和出售哪些股票的简明快照。</p>
</div><p>Based on a slew of regulatory filings, we know the Oracle of Omaha has been a persistent seller of <strong>Bank of America</strong>(BAC 0.42%) stock for three consecutive quarters. But we also know he's been absolutely piling into a historically cheap company that's one of Wall Street's few legal monopolies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据一系列监管文件，我们知道这位奥马哈先知在连续三个季度中一直是 <strong>美国银行</strong>（BAC 0.42%）股票的持续卖方。但我们也知道，他正在大举投资一家历史上估值便宜的公司，这家公司是华尔街为数不多的合法垄断之一。</p>
</div><h2>Berkshire Hathaway's billionaire chief is ringing the register on Bank of America</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希尔哈撒韦的亿万富翁首席正在兑现美国银行的收益</h2>
</div><p>In instances where Berkshire Hathaway holds a 10% or greater stake in a public company, such as Bank of America in July 2024, it's required to file Form 4 with the SEC within two business days. A Form 4 details all buying and selling activity in a stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伯克希尔哈撒韦持有一家上市公司 10% 或更大股份的情况下，例如 2024 年 7 月的美国银行，必须在两个工作日内向 SEC 提交 4 号表格。4 号表格详细列出了股票的所有买卖活动。</p>
</div><p>On July 17, Warren Buffett began dumping shares of Bank of America (also known as &#34;BofA&#34;). Between July 17, 2024 and March 31, 2025, Berkshire's billionaire chief sent more than 401 million shares of BofA to the chopping block, equating to a reduction of around 39%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年 7 月 17 日，沃伦·巴菲特开始抛售美国银行（也称为 “BofA”）的股票。在 2024 年 7 月 17 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日期间，伯克希尔的亿万首席抛售了超过 4.01 亿股 BofA，减少了约 39%。</p>
</div><p>Some of this selling may represent nothing more than simple profit-taking. Before Buffett ramped up his selling activity in BofA, he opined during Berkshire's 2024 annual shareholder meeting that the peak marginal corporate income tax rate would likely climb in the future. With President Trump's flagship Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reducing the peak marginal corporate income tax rate to 21%, which is its lowest level since 1939, Buffett intimated that investors would, in hindsight, appreciate Berkshire Hathaway for locking in gains at an advantageous rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些抛售中的一些可能仅仅代表简单的获利了结。在巴菲特加大对 BofA 的抛售活动之前，他在伯克希尔 2024 年年度股东大会上表示，边际企业所得税的最高税率未来可能会上升。由于特朗普总统的税收减免法案将边际企业所得税的最高税率降低至 21%，这是自 1939 年以来的最低水平，巴菲特暗示，投资者在事后会感激伯克希尔哈撒韦以有利的税率锁定收益。</p>
</div><p>But it's also possible more nefarious factors have played a role in Buffett's decision to jettison north of 401 million shares of Bank of America since mid-July of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但也有可能更阴暗的因素在巴菲特决定抛售超过 4.01 亿股美国银行的过程中发挥了作用。</p>
</div><p>For example, BofA is the most interest sensitive of America's money-center banks. When the Federal Reserve rapidly increased interest rates from March 2022 to July 2023 to curb the highest prevailing rate of domestic inflation in four decades, it sent Bank of America's interest income screaming higher. However, with the nation's central bank now in a rate-easing cycle, there's the potential for BofA's interest income to decline at a faster pace than other large U.S. banks. It's possible Berkshire's billionaire chief was anticipating a decline in interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，美国银行是美国货币中心银行中对利率最敏感的银行。当美联储在 2022 年 3 月至 2023 年 7 月迅速提高利率以遏制四十年来最高的国内通胀率时，美国银行的利息收入大幅上升。然而，随着国家中央银行现在进入降息周期，美国银行的利息收入可能会比其他大型美国银行更快下降。伯克希尔的亿万首席可能预见到利息收入的下降。</p>
</div><p>The other issue that may have enticed Warren Buffett to dump around 39% of his Bank of America stake -- it still represents one of Berkshire's largest holdings by market value -- is the company's valuation. Though some of Buffett's unwritten investment rules have, on occasion, been broken, the one unbendable rule Berkshire's CEO stands by is valuation. He won't chase after companies whose shares don't offer perceived value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能促使沃伦·巴菲特抛售约 39% 美国银行股份的原因——尽管这仍然是伯克希尔按市值计算的最大持股之一——是公司的估值。尽管巴菲特的一些不成文投资规则偶尔会被打破，但伯克希尔首席执行官坚持的唯一不变的规则是估值。他不会追逐那些股票没有提供感知价值的公司。</p>
</div><p>When the Oracle of Omaha initially invested in BofA's preferred stock in August 2011, its common stock was trading at a 62% discount to its book value. As of this writing on June 27, BofA's common stock is now trading at a 29% <em>premium</em> to book value. While this isn't particularly pricey, it is well above average for BofA over the past 15 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当奥马哈先知在 2011 年 8 月首次投资于 BofA 的优先股时，其普通股的交易价格比账面价值低 62%。截至 6 月 27 日，BofA 的普通股现在以 29% 的_溢价_交易于账面价值之上。虽然这并不算特别昂贵，但在过去 15 年中，BofA 的估值远高于平均水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyNzAvc2lyaXVzeG0taW4tZGFzaC1yYWRpby5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823270%2Fsiriusxm-in-dash-radio.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Sirius XM.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Sirius XM。</p>
</div><h2>Warren Buffett is dialing up shares of this super cheap legal monopoly</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃伦·巴菲特正在加码这家超级便宜的合法垄断公司股票</h2>
</div><p>Despite being a net seller of stocks for 10 consecutive quarters, to the tune of $174.4 billion (in aggregate), Berkshire Hathaway's brightest investment mind has found a few companies that check all the right boxes. One of the stocks he can't seem to get enough of is satellite-radio provider <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI 1.95%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管连续 10 个季度净卖出股票，总额达到 1744 亿美元（合计），但伯克希尔哈撒韦最聪明的投资头脑还是找到了几家符合所有标准的公司。他似乎对卫星广播提供商 <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>（SIRI 1.95%）情有独钟。</p>
</div><p>Since the merger of Sirius XM's common stock with that of multiple classes of Sirius XM's tracking stock, Liberty Sirius XM Group, during the second week of September last year, Buffett has been pressing the buy button with some degree of regularity. Between Sept. 30, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 14,621,663 additional shares of Sirius XM were purchased, which brought Berkshire Hathaway's total stake in the company to 119,776,692 shares. This represents more than 35% of Sirius XM's outstanding shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自去年 9 月第二周 Sirius XM 的普通股与多个类别的跟踪股票 Liberty Sirius XM Group 合并以来，巴菲特以一定的频率按下买入按钮。在 2024 年 9 月 30 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日期间，额外购买了 14,621,663 股 Sirius XM，使伯克希尔哈撒韦在该公司的总持股达到 119,776,692 股。这占 Sirius XM 流通股的 35% 以上。</p>
</div><p>The broad-based lure of Sirius XM as an investment is simple: It operates as a legal monopoly. While it still faces plenty of competition for listeners from terrestrial and online radio companies, there isn't another company licensed to operate satellite radio. This unique distinction does afford Sirius XM a degree of subscription pricing power that traditional and online radio companies would struggle to match.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sirius XM 作为投资的广泛吸引力很简单：它作为合法垄断运营。尽管它仍面临来自传统和在线广播公司的听众竞争，但没有其他公司被授权运营卫星广播。这一独特的特征确实赋予了 Sirius XM 一定的订阅定价权，而传统和在线广播公司则难以匹敌。</p>
</div><p>But what's arguably far more important than Sirius XM's legal monopoly status is the way it generates revenue. Traditional radio providers bring in almost all of their revenue through advertising. Though this works great during long-winded economic expansions, sales can dry up quickly during periods of heightened fear and/or downturns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但或许比 Sirius XM 的合法垄断地位更重要的是它的收入生成方式。传统广播提供商几乎所有的收入都来自广告。尽管在漫长的经济扩张期间，这种方式效果很好，但在恐惧加剧和/或经济下滑期间，销售可能会迅速枯竭。</p>
</div><p>In comparison, Sirius XM generated only 19% of its first-quarter net sales from advertising. The bulk of its revenue (77.5%, net) comes from subscriptions. When the going gets tough for the stock market or U.S. economy, subscribers are far less likely to cancel or alter their service than businesses are to pare back to marketing budget. This leads to more consistent cash flow for Sirius XM year after year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，Sirius XM 第一季度的净销售额中仅有 19% 来自广告。其大部分收入（77.5%，净）来自订阅。当股市或美国经济面临困难时，订阅者取消或更改服务的可能性远低于企业削减营销预算的可能性。这为 Sirius XM 带来了更为稳定的现金流。</p>
</div><p>Something else that's helped differentiate Sirius XM from more traditional radio companies is the partial predictability of its cost structure. While royalty and talent acquisition costs are going to vary from one quarter to the next, transmission and equipment costs remain relatively static no matter how many subscribers the company has. This means a steady or growing subscriber base, coupled with Sirius XM's reasonably strong pricing power, should lead to operating margin expansion over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个帮助 Sirius XM 与传统广播公司区分开来的因素是其成本结构的部分可预测性。虽然版权和人才获取成本会在不同季度之间有所波动，但传输和设备成本无论公司拥有多少订阅者都相对稳定。这意味着稳定或增长的订阅者基础，加上 Sirius XM 合理强大的定价能力，应该会随着时间的推移导致运营利润率的扩张。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Sirius XM stock offers Warren Buffett something that he's struggled to find on Wall Street for almost three years: a good deal. Even with the &#34;Buffett Indicator&#34; just a fraction below its all-time high, shares of Sirius XM can be scooped up for less than 8 times forecast earnings in 2025 and 2026. This represents a 60% discount to its average trailing-12-month earnings multiple over the last five years, and a 45% discount to its average forward-year earnings multiple since 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，Sirius XM 股票为沃伦·巴菲特提供了他在华尔街近三年来一直难以找到的东西：一个好交易。即使 &#34;巴菲特指标&#34; 仅略低于历史最高点，Sirius XM 的股票仍可在 2025 年和 2026 年的预测收益的不到 8 倍的价格被购入。这相较于过去五年其平均的过去 12 个月收益倍数，折扣达 60%；与自 2020 年以来的平均前瞻性收益倍数相比，折扣为 45%。</p>
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Billionaire Warren Buffett Sold 39% of Berkshire's Stake in Bank of America and Is Piling Into a Historically Cheap Legal Monopoly

- 巴菲特将在年底辞去伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官职务，接任者为格雷格·阿贝尔。  
- 他在任期间，伯克希尔 A 类股累计回报超过 5,884,000%。  
- 巴菲特近期持续减持美国银行股票，同时增持卫星广播公司 Sirius XM。  

亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特出售了伯克希尔在美国银行的 39% 股份，并正在投资一个历史上价格低廉的合法垄断企业