<p>企业报告关税对价格造成上行压力</p>
<p>美联储报告称就业略有上升，因不确定性推迟招聘决策</p>
<p>预计美国中央银行将维持当前政策利率，至少到九月份</p>
<p>作者：安·萨菲尔</p>
<p>7 月 16 日（路透社）- 美国经济活动在最近几周略有增加，但前景中性偏悲观，美联储周三表示，企业报告特朗普政府提高的关税对价格造成了上行压力。</p>
<p>根据美联储的《米色书》报告，来自各行业的联系人预计未来几个月成本压力将保持高位，这增加了消费者价格在夏末开始更快上涨的可能性。该报告基于截至 7 月 7 日从美联储 12 个地区银行的商业和社区联系人收集的调查、访谈和观察。</p>
<p>美联储表示，就业略有增加，“许多联系人预计将在不确定性减弱之前推迟重大招聘和裁员决策。”</p>
<p>美联储政策制定者自去年 12 月以来将政策利率维持在当前的 4.25%-4.50% 区间，并广泛预计至少在九月份之前不会改变这一政策，因为他们在等待经济对特朗普总统的贸易和其他政策变化的反应。总统已要求美联储立即降息，一些美联储政策制定者表示，他们会考虑在 7 月 29 日至 30 日的会议上采取行动，以防止劳动力市场进一步疲软。然而，大多数美国中央银行官员认为，尽管有一些降温迹象，如近期持续失业救济申请的增加和就业增长放缓，但就业市场依然稳固，并且在预计未来几个月最高的进口关税将推高价格并可能抵消来之不易的通胀进展时，他们不愿意降息。美国消费者价格在 6 月份上涨幅度为五个月以来最大，部分进口商品的价格，包括服装、家居用品、玩具和运动用品，推动了这一上涨。但 6 月份的批发价格表现较为疲软，经济学家现在估计美联储跟踪的核心个人消费支出价格指数的 6 月份读数将为 2.7%，与 5 月份持平。达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根是美国中央银行官员之一，她表示，预计需要到秋季才能更清楚地显示关税对通胀的影响；波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯和其他人则表示，关税可能不会像担心的那样推动通胀。</p>
<p>为了准确了解可能发生的情况，美联储政策制定者表示，他们特别关注《米色书》中突出的人们和企业的日常经历。</p>

<p>美国经济活动略有上升，但由于关税导致价格上涨，美联储的前景依然保持中性到悲观。就业略有增加，但许多企业在不确定性中推迟招聘决策。预计美联储将维持 4.25%-4.50% 的政策利率，至少到 9 月份，因为他们正在监测贸易政策对经济的影响。6 月份，消费者价格显著上涨，主要受进口商品推动，而批发价格则保持疲软。美联储官员正密切关注这一情况，以评估关税对通货膨胀的影响</p>

<p>Businesses report tariffs causing upward pressure on prices</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企业报告关税对价格造成上行压力</p>
</div><p>Fed report says employment slightly rose, hiring decisions postponed due to uncertainty</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储报告称就业略有上升，因不确定性推迟招聘决策</p>
</div><p>US central bank expected to maintain current policy rate until at least September</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计美国中央银行将维持当前政策利率，至少到九月份</p>
</div><p>By Ann Saphir</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安·萨菲尔</p>
</div><p>July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. economic activity increased slightly in recent weeks, but the outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, as businesses reported the Trump administration’s higher tariffs were putting upward pressure on prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月 16 日（路透社）- 美国经济活动在最近几周略有增加，但前景中性偏悲观，美联储周三表示，企业报告特朗普政府提高的关税对价格造成了上行压力。</p>
</div><p>“Contacts in a wide range of industries expected cost pressures to remain elevated in the coming months, increasing the likelihood that consumer prices will start to rise more rapidly by late summer,” according to the Fed’s “Beige Book” report, which was based on surveys, interviews and observations collected from the commercial and community contacts of each of the U.S. central bank’s 12 regional banks through July 7.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据美联储的《米色书》报告，来自各行业的联系人预计未来几个月成本压力将保持高位，这增加了消费者价格在夏末开始更快上涨的可能性。该报告基于截至 7 月 7 日从美联储 12 个地区银行的商业和社区联系人收集的调查、访谈和观察。</p>
</div><p>Employment increased very slightly, the Fed said, and “many contacts expected to postpone major hiring and layoff decisions until uncertainty diminished.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储表示，就业略有增加，“许多联系人预计将在不确定性减弱之前推迟重大招聘和裁员决策。”</p>
</div><p>Fed policymakers have kept their policy rate in the current 4.25%-4.50% range since December and are widely expected to leave it there at least until September as they wait to see how the economy responds to trade and other policy changes under President Donald Trump. The president has demanded the Fed cut rates immediately, and a couple of Fed policymakers have said they’d consider it as soon as the July 29-30 meeting to head off any further labor market weakening. Most U.S. central bankers, however, believe the job market remains solid despite some signs of cooling, like a recent rise in continuing unemployment claims and a slowdown in job growth, and are unwilling to lower rates when they expect the highest import duties in decades will drive up prices in coming months and potentially undo hard-won progress on inflation. In a sign that process is underway, U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in five months in June, with the prices of some largely imported goods including apparel, home furnishings, toys and sporting goods driving the rise. But wholesale prices for June came in on the soft side, and economists now estimate the June reading for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index - which the Fed tracks to gauge progress toward its 2% inflation target - will be 2.7%, no higher than in May. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is among U.S. central bank officials who say they expect it to take into the fall before the data show the impact of tariffs on inflation more clearly; Boston Fed President Susan Collins and others have said it may turn out that tariffs won’t boost inflation as much as feared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储政策制定者自去年 12 月以来将政策利率维持在当前的 4.25%-4.50% 区间，并广泛预计至少在九月份之前不会改变这一政策，因为他们在等待经济对特朗普总统的贸易和其他政策变化的反应。总统已要求美联储立即降息，一些美联储政策制定者表示，他们会考虑在 7 月 29 日至 30 日的会议上采取行动，以防止劳动力市场进一步疲软。然而，大多数美国中央银行官员认为，尽管有一些降温迹象，如近期持续失业救济申请的增加和就业增长放缓，但就业市场依然稳固，并且在预计未来几个月最高的进口关税将推高价格并可能抵消来之不易的通胀进展时，他们不愿意降息。美国消费者价格在 6 月份上涨幅度为五个月以来最大，部分进口商品的价格，包括服装、家居用品、玩具和运动用品，推动了这一上涨。但 6 月份的批发价格表现较为疲软，经济学家现在估计美联储跟踪的核心个人消费支出价格指数的 6 月份读数将为 2.7%，与 5 月份持平。达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根是美国中央银行官员之一，她表示，预计需要到秋季才能更清楚地显示关税对通胀的影响；波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯和其他人则表示，关税可能不会像担心的那样推动通胀。</p>
</div><p>To figure out exactly what may happen, Fed policymakers say they are paying special attention to the day-to-day experiences of people and businesses like those highlighted in the Beige Book.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了准确了解可能发生的情况，美联储政策制定者表示，他们特别关注《米色书》中突出的人们和企业的日常经历。</p>
</div>

US economic activity up but outlook pessimistic, Fed says

- 美国经济活动略有增加，但前景中性偏悲观。  
- 企业报告称特朗普政府的高关税对价格造成上行压力。  
- 美联储预计将维持当前政策利率至至少九月。

美联储表示，美国经济活动有所上升，但前景依然悲观