<p>两位美联储官员可能会对政策决定表示异议</p><p>尽管特朗普施压，美联储可能会将政策利率维持在 4.25%-4.50% 区间</p><p>最近的数据表明消费者支出强劲，但住房和建筑领域疲软</p><p>7 月 28 日（路透社）——美国中央银行在特朗普总统的恼怒下，可能会在本周的政策会议上维持利率不变，但这并不意味着不会进行激烈的辩论，可能会有一位或两位美联储官员罕见地表示异议，支持降低借贷成本。然而，美联储大多数政策制定者仍然担心特朗普的关税可能会抵消将通胀恢复到中央银行 2% 目标的进展，目前对劳动力市场的担忧则相对较小。上周美国与日本达成的贸易协议，关税设定为 15%，以及与欧盟谈判中类似税率的进展，使得整体进口关税最终可能远低于特朗普在 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 宣布的惩罚性水平。尽管如此，美国的关税仍处于 90 年来的最高水平，其影响开始在家庭消费中显现。家具和服装等商品价格的激增推动了 6 月份整体消费者通胀年化率达到 3.5%。</p><p>在经历了 40 年来的高通胀后，政策制定者担心快速上涨的价格可能会让家庭 “感到恐慌”，正如芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比有时所说的那样，可能引发更广泛的通胀螺旋上升。</p><p>虽然美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示这只是众多可能情景之一，但他认为中央银行可以等待更多信息再调整利率，尤其是在失业率为 4.1%，接近或低于充分就业的估计水平时。</p><p>其他数据以及特朗普更广泛的经济计划的前景，包括减税和放松管制，邀请了对中央银行政策制定的不同看法。</p><p>“考虑到（美联储官员克里斯托弗）沃勒与（美联储副主席米歇尔）鲍曼及其他 FOMC 参与者之间在短期政策前景上的明显分歧，我们预计沃勒和鲍曼都将支持 25 个基点的降息，” 野村证券的分析师写道，该公司是预测自 1993 年以来美联储官员首次双重异议的华尔街公司之一。沃勒和鲍曼都是特朗普任命的美联储理事，特朗普曾严厉批评鲍威尔抵制白宫要求立即降息的要求，并在鲍威尔任期到明年 5 月到期之前提出解雇美联储主席的想法。上周，在一次罕见但紧张的访问美联储总部期间，特朗普再次强调了降低利率的必要性，尽管他也表示不认为有必要解雇鲍威尔。</p><p>沃勒被提及为鲍威尔的可能接班人，他认为私营部门的就业增长接近停滞速度，并担心在缺乏更宽松信贷条件的情况下，公司可能会转向裁员。私营部门的招聘仅占 6 月份 147,000 个美国就业岗位增幅的一半，沃勒表示其他数据表明，即使是这一数据也高估了真实增长。鲍曼也对劳动力市场恶化表示担忧，并认为可能需要降息以防止这种情况。</p><p>两人都对关税会导致持续通胀持怀疑态度。</p><p>包括波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯在内的其他几位官员也认为，最近温和的价格上涨表明关税可能不会像早先认为的那样推高通胀。</p><h3 id="dpiwdo60a">创纪录的经济</h3><p>在预计于周三发布的美联储政策声明之前，商务部预计将报告经济活动在第二季度重新加速，总产出在未调整通胀的情况下首次超过 30 万亿美元。这可能会增强特朗普的自夸权利，他声称如果美联储降息，美国经济将像火箭一样腾飞。</p><p>但中央银行家将对此持更模糊的看法。预计的增长是在第一季度 GDP 因抢先应对特朗普对美国贸易伙伴的进口关税而出现历史性下降之后的反弹。“虽然进口的急剧逆转将机械性地推动第二季度 GDP 增长，但关税引发的成本压力、持续的政策不确定性、严重限制的移民和高企的利率共同抑制了就业、商业投资和家庭消费，” 安永 - 帕森诺的首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科写道。“美国经济继续在复杂的交叉潮流中航行，掩盖了其潜在动能的清晰读数。” 消费者支出占经济总产出的三分之二，表现相对强劲，上个月零售销售增长超出预期。</p><p>尽管家庭银行账户余额同比下降，但摩根大通研究所上周的数据表明，整体现金储备状况有所改善。</p><p>美联储数据显示，向消费者和企业提供的银行信贷较去年同期首次上升超过两年。类似地，贷款量和需求自 5 月底开始上升，此前自年初以来增长缓慢或没有增长，达拉斯联储的调查显示，银行家预计到今年年底经济活动和信贷需求将增加。另一个迹象表明经济并未衰退，美联储数据显示制造业产出在上个季度增长，尽管年化增速为 2.1%，低于第一季度的 3.7%。企业资源利用率的一个指标在 6 月份从 5 月份的 77.5% 上升至 77.6%。尽管如此，商业投资可能正在减弱。周五的数据表明，排除飞机的非国防资本品订单在 6 月份意外下降 0.7%，因为企业对支出变得更加谨慎。</p><p>其他数据指向经济疲软，增强了少数派对近期降息的论点。</p><p>就业增长放缓，招聘范围缩小，仅由少数几个服务行业主导。失业后找工作变得更加困难。领取失业救济金的人中，有一半至少在失业名单上待了两个月半。</p><p>住房和建筑行业显然处于劣势，受到 30 年期固定利率抵押贷款接近 7% 的拖累。整体建筑支出已连续九个月下降，这是自 2007-2009 年金融危机以来未曾见过的情况，而 6 月份新建单户住宅开工量为近一年来最低。新房和二手房的销售依然疲软。</p><p>“疲软的住房需求是利率仍然限制的有力证据，劳动力市场疲软和高不确定性等因素可能也在抑制需求，” 花旗经济学家写道。</p><p>图表-30 万亿美元的经济</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a69eea70821e26310858bb0296e211f7?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1118" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a69eea70821e26310858bb0296e211f7"/></figure><p>图表 - 美国招聘行业已缩小至更少的行业</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f5f18e26604f4e136554695db6cd3ea7?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1734" height="998" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f5f18e26604f4e136554695db6cd3ea7"/></figure><p>图表 - 美国建筑支出承压</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/afa63a36eb04f4314e03b86cce5ef7e2?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1018" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/afa63a36eb04f4314e03b86cce5ef7e2"/></figure><p>图表 - 贷款上升</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/72d3b27476e0da22010acba38cf5f5e2?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1042" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/72d3b27476e0da22010acba38cf5f5e2"/></figure><p>图表 - 家庭现金</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/8e7e64fc2a4935e0f641201281aa54fb?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1016" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/8e7e64fc2a4935e0f641201281aa54fb"/></figure>

<p>预计美联储将维持利率在 4.25%-4.50% 的区间，尽管面临特朗普总统的压力，且有两位州长主张降息。最近的经济数据表明消费者支出强劲，但住房和建筑领域存在弱点。美联储对由于高关税带来的通胀风险保持谨慎，而一些州长则对劳动力市场的恶化表示担忧。即将发布的 GDP 报告预计将显示经济增长，但整体经济前景仍存在不确定性</p>

<p>Two Fed governors may dissent on policy decision</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两位美联储官员可能会对政策决定表示异议</p>
</div><p>Fed likely to leave policy rate in 4.25%-4.50% range despite Trump’s pressure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特朗普施压，美联储可能会将政策利率维持在 4.25%-4.50% 区间</p>
</div><p>Recent data showed strong consumer spending, weakness in housing and construction</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的数据表明消费者支出强劲，但住房和建筑领域疲软</p>
</div><p>July 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank, to President Donald Trump’s chagrin, will likely leave interest rates unchanged at a policy meeting this week, but that’s not to say there won’t be a vigorous debate, with one if not two Federal Reserve governors possibly casting a rare dissent in support of lower borrowing costs. The majority of Fed policymakers, though, remain concerned that Trump’s tariffs could undo progress on bringing inflation back to the central bank’s 2% goal, outweighing for now worries about the labor market. The trade deal struck between the U.S. and Japan last week, with tariffs set at 15%, and reported progress for a similar rate in talks with the European Union make it more likely that import duties overall will end up well below the punishing levels Trump announced on his April 2 “Liberation Day.” Even so, U.S. tariffs are at their highest level in 90 years, and the effects are starting to show up in household purchases. A surge in prices of goods like furnishings and apparel helped drive overall consumer inflation to an annualized 3.5% pace in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月 28 日（路透社）——美国中央银行在特朗普总统的恼怒下，可能会在本周的政策会议上维持利率不变，但这并不意味着不会进行激烈的辩论，可能会有一位或两位美联储官员罕见地表示异议，支持降低借贷成本。然而，美联储大多数政策制定者仍然担心特朗普的关税可能会抵消将通胀恢复到中央银行 2% 目标的进展，目前对劳动力市场的担忧则相对较小。上周美国与日本达成的贸易协议，关税设定为 15%，以及与欧盟谈判中类似税率的进展，使得整体进口关税最终可能远低于特朗普在 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 宣布的惩罚性水平。尽管如此，美国的关税仍处于 90 年来的最高水平，其影响开始在家庭消费中显现。家具和服装等商品价格的激增推动了 6 月份整体消费者通胀年化率达到 3.5%。</p>
</div><p>So soon after a bout of 40-year-high inflation, policymakers fear fast-rising prices could “freak out” households, as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee sometimes phrases it, triggering a wider inflationary spiral.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了 40 年来的高通胀后，政策制定者担心快速上涨的价格可能会让家庭 “感到恐慌”，正如芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比有时所说的那样，可能引发更广泛的通胀螺旋上升。</p>
</div><p>While Fed Chair Jerome Powell says that is only one of many possible scenarios, he has argued the central bank can wait to learn more before adjusting rates, especially with a 4.1% unemployment rate near or below estimates of full employment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示这只是众多可能情景之一，但他认为中央银行可以等待更多信息再调整利率，尤其是在失业率为 4.1%，接近或低于充分就业的估计水平时。</p>
</div><p>Other data and the outlook amid Trump’s broader economic program, including tax cuts and deregulation, invite differing views on the central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他数据以及特朗普更广泛的经济计划的前景，包括减税和放松管制，邀请了对中央银行政策制定的不同看法。</p>
</div><p>“Considering the clear divergence in the near-term policy outlook between (Fed Governor Christopher) Waller and (Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle) Bowman and the other FOMC participants, we expect both Waller and Bowman to dissent in favor of a 25-bp (basis-point) cut,” wrote analysts at Nomura Securities, one of several Wall Street firms predicting the first double dissent from Fed governors since 1993. Both Waller and Bowman were appointed to the Board of Governors by Trump, who has excoriated Powell for resisting the White House’s demand for an immediate rate cut and broached the idea of firing the Fed chief before his term expires next May. Last week, during a rare but tense visit to the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, Trump once again pressed the case for lower rates, though he also said he didn’t think it was necessary to fire Powell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“考虑到（美联储官员克里斯托弗）沃勒与（美联储副主席米歇尔）鲍曼及其他 FOMC 参与者之间在短期政策前景上的明显分歧，我们预计沃勒和鲍曼都将支持 25 个基点的降息，” 野村证券的分析师写道，该公司是预测自 1993 年以来美联储官员首次双重异议的华尔街公司之一。沃勒和鲍曼都是特朗普任命的美联储理事，特朗普曾严厉批评鲍威尔抵制白宫要求立即降息的要求，并在鲍威尔任期到明年 5 月到期之前提出解雇美联储主席的想法。上周，在一次罕见但紧张的访问美联储总部期间，特朗普再次强调了降低利率的必要性，尽管他也表示不认为有必要解雇鲍威尔。</p>
</div><p>Waller, who has been mentioned as a possible successor to Powell, sees private-sector job growth nearing stall speed and fears companies could turn to layoffs in the absence of easier credit conditions. Private-sector hiring accounted for just half of the gain of 147,000 U.S. jobs in June, and Waller says other data suggests even that reading overestimates the true increase. Bowman has also expressed worries about labor market deterioration and feels a rate cut may be needed to prevent it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃勒被提及为鲍威尔的可能接班人，他认为私营部门的就业增长接近停滞速度，并担心在缺乏更宽松信贷条件的情况下，公司可能会转向裁员。私营部门的招聘仅占 6 月份 147,000 个美国就业岗位增幅的一半，沃勒表示其他数据表明，即使是这一数据也高估了真实增长。鲍曼也对劳动力市场恶化表示担忧，并认为可能需要降息以防止这种情况。</p>
</div><p>Both are skeptical tariffs will lead to persistent inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两人都对关税会导致持续通胀持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><p>Several others, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, also see recent muted price increases as suggesting tariffs may not push up inflation as much as earlier thought.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯在内的其他几位官员也认为，最近温和的价格上涨表明关税可能不会像早先认为的那样推高通胀。</p>
</div><h3>RECORD-BREAKING ECONOMY</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>创纪录的经济</h3>
</div><p>Ahead of the scheduled release on Wednesday of the Fed’s policy statement, the Commerce Department is widely expected to report that economic activity reaccelerated in the second quarter, pushing total output above $30 trillion in non-inflation-adjusted terms for the first time. That may shore up Trump’s bragging rights to what he says is a U.S. economy that would take off like a rocket if only the Fed cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在预计于周三发布的美联储政策声明之前，商务部预计将报告经济活动在第二季度重新加速，总产出在未调整通胀的情况下首次超过 30 万亿美元。这可能会增强特朗普的自夸权利，他声称如果美联储降息，美国经济将像火箭一样腾飞。</p>
</div><p>But central bankers will see it as more ambiguous. The expected increase follows a first-quarter drop in GDP from a historic rush to front-run Trump’s tariffs on imports from U.S. trading partners. “While a sharp reversal in imports will mechanically boost Q2 GDP, tariff-induced cost pressures, persistent policy uncertainty, severely curtailed immigration, and elevated interest rates are collectively dampening employment, business investment and household consumption,” wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “The U.S. economy continues to navigate a complex set of cross-currents, obscuring a clear reading of its underlying momentum.” Consumer spending, accounting for two-thirds of economic output, has been reasonably strong, with retail sales rising more than expected last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但中央银行家将对此持更模糊的看法。预计的增长是在第一季度 GDP 因抢先应对特朗普对美国贸易伙伴的进口关税而出现历史性下降之后的反弹。“虽然进口的急剧逆转将机械性地推动第二季度 GDP 增长，但关税引发的成本压力、持续的政策不确定性、严重限制的移民和高企的利率共同抑制了就业、商业投资和家庭消费，” 安永 - 帕森诺的首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科写道。“美国经济继续在复杂的交叉潮流中航行，掩盖了其潜在动能的清晰读数。” 消费者支出占经济总产出的三分之二，表现相对强劲，上个月零售销售增长超出预期。</p>
</div><p>Though household bank account balances are lower on a year-over-year basis, data from the JPMorganChase Institute last week suggests overall cash reserves are in better shape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管家庭银行账户余额同比下降，但摩根大通研究所上周的数据表明，整体现金储备状况有所改善。</p>
</div><p>Bank credit extended to consumers and businesses is up from the prior year for the first time in more than two years, Fed data shows. Similarly, loan volume and demand rose beginning in late May after sluggish or no growth since the year began, a Dallas Fed survey shows, and bankers expect increased economic activity and rising credit demand through the end of this year. In another sign the economy isn’t rolling over, Fed data shows manufacturing output grew last quarter, albeit by a slower 2.1% annualized pace than the first quarter’s 3.7% pace. A measure of how fully firms are using their resources edged up to 77.6% in June from 77.5% in May. Still, business investment may be faltering. Data on Friday showed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft unexpectedly dropped 0.7% in June as firms grew more cautious about spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储数据显示，向消费者和企业提供的银行信贷较去年同期首次上升超过两年。类似地，贷款量和需求自 5 月底开始上升，此前自年初以来增长缓慢或没有增长，达拉斯联储的调查显示，银行家预计到今年年底经济活动和信贷需求将增加。另一个迹象表明经济并未衰退，美联储数据显示制造业产出在上个季度增长，尽管年化增速为 2.1%，低于第一季度的 3.7%。企业资源利用率的一个指标在 6 月份从 5 月份的 77.5% 上升至 77.6%。尽管如此，商业投资可能正在减弱。周五的数据表明，排除飞机的非国防资本品订单在 6 月份意外下降 0.7%，因为企业对支出变得更加谨慎。</p>
</div><p>Other data points to a weakening economy, bolstering the minority argument for rate cuts soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他数据指向经济疲软，增强了少数派对近期降息的论点。</p>
</div><p>Employment growth has slowed and hiring breadth is narrowing, led by just a few service-providing sectors. Finding a job after losing one is getting harder. Half of those collecting unemployment benefits remain on the jobless rolls for at least two-and-a-half months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就业增长放缓，招聘范围缩小，仅由少数几个服务行业主导。失业后找工作变得更加困难。领取失业救济金的人中，有一半至少在失业名单上待了两个月半。</p>
</div><p>And the housing and construction sectors are clearly on the back foot, feeling the drag of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hovering near 7%. Overall construction spending has fallen for nine straight months - a streak unseen since the 2007-2009 financial crisis - and new single-family home starts were the lowest in nearly a year in June. Sales of new and existing homes remain anemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住房和建筑行业显然处于劣势，受到 30 年期固定利率抵押贷款接近 7% 的拖累。整体建筑支出已连续九个月下降，这是自 2007-2009 年金融危机以来未曾见过的情况，而 6 月份新建单户住宅开工量为近一年来最低。新房和二手房的销售依然疲软。</p>
</div><p>“Weak housing demand is convincing evidence that rates are still restrictive, with factors like a softening labor market and high uncertainty possibly also weighing on demand,” Citi economists wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“疲软的住房需求是利率仍然限制的有力证据，劳动力市场疲软和高不确定性等因素可能也在抑制需求，” 花旗经济学家写道。</p>
</div><p>Graphic-A $30 trillion economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表-30 万亿美元的经济</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/814362aedb97c9578e968336272bb9c3?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/814362aedb97c9578e968336272bb9c3"/></p>
<p>Graphic-U.S. hiring has narrowed to fewer industries</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 美国招聘行业已缩小至更少的行业</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/afd9c72f246fa60143601bc85f42d9cf?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/afd9c72f246fa60143601bc85f42d9cf"/></p>
<p>Graphic-U.S. construction spending under pressure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 美国建筑支出承压</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/320ba15adc00683cf98452f9cc8acc0f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/320ba15adc00683cf98452f9cc8acc0f"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Lending on the rise</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 贷款上升</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bf5068f95decd7f41789888b6e3867ce?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bf5068f95decd7f41789888b6e3867ce"/></p>
<p>Graphic-Household cash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表 - 家庭现金</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ef666953f5fa3aa0df80f092a6959e2a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ef666953f5fa3aa0df80f092a6959e2a"/></p>

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged as it sifts through mixed economic data

- 美联储可能在政策会议上维持利率在 4.25%-4.50% 区间不变。  
- 两位美联储官员可能会对降息表示异议，反映出政策分歧。  
- 消费支出强劲，但住房和建筑领域疲软，经济前景复杂。  

美联储预计将维持利率不变，因为它正在分析混合的经济数据