<p>根据 <strong>CME Group</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具在 8 月 18 日的计算，7 月份的通胀数据略显积极，使得美联储在 9 月降息的可能性大约为 83%。一个月前，大约 59% 的交易员认为联邦基金利率会在 9 月发生变化，认为会降息。</p>
<p>在这个市场上，显然，观点变化得很快。尽管特朗普总统一直在积极敦促美联储降息，因为他认为经济能够承受降息，但包括美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在内的许多人选择了观望，考虑到关税对通胀的影响的不确定性以及一些数据表明经济强劲，可能会维持现有利率。有趣的是，如果美联储在 9 月降息，这将是一个几乎前所未有的举动，考虑到当前的数据状况。</p>
<h2>在过去，美联储在这种情况下很少降息</h2>
<p>7 月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告于 8 月 12 日发布，给投资者提供了美联储将在 9 月降息所需的所有信心。CPI 跟踪一篮子消费品的月度和年度价格变化，被视为市场用来衡量通胀水平的关键数据点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyODcvcGVvcGxlLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyODcvcGVvcGxlLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>7 月份，CPI 在季节性调整后较上月上升 0.2%，同比上升 2.7%。年度数据比市场共识预期低 0.1%。与此同时，剔除波动较大的食品和燃料价格的核心通胀较上月上升 0.3%，同比上升 3.1%，年度数据略高于市场共识。</p>
<p>在这一消息的推动下，市场大幅上涨，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特呼吁美联储降息 0.5 个百分点。具体报告显示，许多项目仍在经历月度增长，包括外出就餐（0.3%）、二手车（0.5%）、住房（0.2%）、交通服务（0.8%）和医疗服务（0.8%）。但由于头条 CPI 数据接近或略好于市场共识，市场现在认为美联储拥有降息所需的证据。</p>
<p>鲍威尔一直处于观望状态，因为他和美联储理事会的大多数其他成员不清楚关税对通胀的影响。尽管到目前为止确实有一些影响，但并没有像许多人预期的那样立即或严重。美联储希望不惜一切代价避免任何形式的滞涨环境，即失业率和通胀同时上升。因此，考虑到最近几个月一些疲软的劳动数据，如果通胀数据低于预期，美联储将更有可能降息。</p>
<p>但如果美联储在 9 月真的降息，这将是一个近乎前所未有的举动，生物研究公司 Bianco Research 的吉姆·比安科表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>同比核心 CPI，3.1%</p>
<p>在过去 3 个月上升 0.3%</p>
<p>在过去 40 年中，只有一次美联储在核心 CPI 超过 3% 且 3 个月变化超过 0.3% 时降息，发生在 1990 年 10 月至 1991 年 3 月。</p>
<p>同意 @EpsilonTheory，2% 的通胀目标已经死了。</p>
<p>我们正在接受一个更高通胀的世界。 pic.twitter.com/wJrdM4UyHi</p>
<p>-- 吉姆·比安科 (@biancoresearch) 2025 年 8 月 12 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>正如比安科所述，美联储更重视核心通胀，因为能源和食品价格波动较大，可能受到其他因素的影响，这意味着它们并不总是通胀的最佳指标。美联储的首选通胀目标是 2%，尽管许多人像比安科一样认为美联储在某种程度上已经放弃了这一指标，可能更关注劳动市场。</p>
<h2>未知领域</h2>
<p>尽管美联储降息的可能性估计不断变化，但在 9 月看到如此高的降息概率无疑是一个难以忽视的数字。在美联储 9 月会议之前，只有少数关键数据点仍需报告，因此新数据需要明确显示更高的通胀，以劝阻美联储降息。它们还需要对美联储理事会投票者比疲软的劳动市场数据更具关注。</p>
<p>也就是说，比安科的观点是有道理的。考虑到在疫情最严重时期对经济的支持，可能美联储将通胀视为人为高，通胀将在未来逐渐接近美联储的 2% 目标。就业数据在最近几个月显示出劳动市场的疲软，7 月份经济仅增加约 73,000 个就业岗位，并且对前几个月的数据进行了大幅下调。最近失业申请的增长也令人担忧。</p>
<p>美国经济由消费者支出驱动，因此如果失业开始上升，这可能会削弱推动经济增长的关键力量。特朗普政府的移民政策对劳动市场的影响也不太明确。例如，国内移民减少可能会扭曲就业增长和失业率的数据，造成关于整体就业状况的虚假叙述。</p>
<p>美联储尽管面临比安科所引用的数据仍被强烈预测降息，表明经济正处于未知领域。投资者应理解，这意味着事情可能与过去的周期有所不同。这可能意味着更高的高点，或者可能在前方出现回调。我们不知道，但这是所有投资者都需要注意的事情，以便做出更冷静、更不冲动的决策。</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>由于积极的通胀数据，联邦储备委员会在九月份降息的可能性已飙升至 83%，相比一个月前的 59% 大幅上升。尽管特朗普总统主张降息，但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔因关税和经济强度的不确定性而保持谨慎。如果美联储真的降息，这在当前的通胀水平下几乎是前所未有的。最近的消费者物价指数数据显示，月度增长为 0.2%，同比上涨 2.7%，核心通胀率为 3.1%。分析师建议，美联储可能正在将关注点从 2% 的通胀目标转向劳动力市场状况</p>

<p>After somewhat positive inflation data in July, the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September are at roughly 83%, according to <strong>CME Group</strong>'s FedWatch tool calculations on Aug. 18. One month earlier, roughly 59% of traders betting on changes in the federal funds rate thought an interest rate cut would occur in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>CME Group</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具在 8 月 18 日的计算，7 月份的通胀数据略显积极，使得美联储在 9 月降息的可能性大约为 83%。一个月前，大约 59% 的交易员认为联邦基金利率会在 9 月发生变化，认为会降息。</p>
</div><p>In this market, apparently, opinions change fast. While President Donald Trump has been aggressively urging the Fed to cut rates because he thinks the economy can manage the cuts, many, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, have opted for a wait-and-see approach, given the uncertainty of the impact of tariffs on inflation and some data indicating economic strength that would point to keeping rates where they are. Interestingly, if the Fed does cut rates in September, it would be a nearly unprecedented move, considering where the data stands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这个市场上，显然，观点变化得很快。尽管特朗普总统一直在积极敦促美联储降息，因为他认为经济能够承受降息，但包括美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在内的许多人选择了观望，考虑到关税对通胀的影响的不确定性以及一些数据表明经济强劲，可能会维持现有利率。有趣的是，如果美联储在 9 月降息，这将是一个几乎前所未有的举动，考虑到当前的数据状况。</p>
</div><h2>In the past, the Fed has rarely cut in this situation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在过去，美联储在这种情况下很少降息</h2>
</div><p>The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Aug. 12 gave investors all the confidence they needed that the Fed will cut rates in September. The CPI tracks the monthly and yearly price changes of a basket of consumer goods and is viewed as a key data point that the market uses to gauge the level of inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告于 8 月 12 日发布，给投资者提供了美联储将在 9 月降息所需的所有信心。CPI 跟踪一篮子消费品的月度和年度价格变化，被视为市场用来衡量通胀水平的关键数据点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyODcvcGVvcGxlLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829287%2Fpeople-computer-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>In July, the CPI rose 0.2% from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis and was up 2.7% year over year. The annual number came in 0.1% below what consensus estimates called for. Meanwhile, core inflation, which strips out more volatile food and gas prices, rose 0.3% from the prior month and 3.1% <em>higher</em> year over year, with the annual number slightly <em>above</em> consensus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月份，CPI 在季节性调整后较上月上升 0.2%，同比上升 2.7%。年度数据比市场共识预期低 0.1%。与此同时，剔除波动较大的食品和燃料价格的核心通胀较上月上升 0.3%，同比上升 3.1%，年度数据略高于市场共识。</p>
</div><p>The market ripped higher on the news and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for the Fed to cut rates by a half point. Looking at the specific report, many items are still experiencing monthly increases, including food away from home (0.3%), used cars (0.5%), shelter (0.2%), transportation services (0.8%), and medical care services (0.8%). But with the headline CPI number coming in around consensus or even slightly better, the market now thinks the Fed has the evidence it needs to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一消息的推动下，市场大幅上涨，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特呼吁美联储降息 0.5 个百分点。具体报告显示，许多项目仍在经历月度增长，包括外出就餐（0.3%）、二手车（0.5%）、住房（0.2%）、交通服务（0.8%）和医疗服务（0.8%）。但由于头条 CPI 数据接近或略好于市场共识，市场现在认为美联储拥有降息所需的证据。</p>
</div><p>Powell has been in pause mode because he and the majority of other members of the Fed's Board of Governors are unclear what impact tariffs will have on inflation. While there certainly has been some impact thus far, it has not been as immediate or severe as many had expected. The Fed wants to avoid any kind of stagflationary environment at all costs, in which both unemployment and inflation rises. So with some weaker labor data in recent months, if inflation data comes in tamer than expected, the Fed is in a better position to cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔一直处于观望状态，因为他和美联储理事会的大多数其他成员不清楚关税对通胀的影响。尽管到目前为止确实有一些影响，但并没有像许多人预期的那样立即或严重。美联储希望不惜一切代价避免任何形式的滞涨环境，即失业率和通胀同时上升。因此，考虑到最近几个月一些疲软的劳动数据，如果通胀数据低于预期，美联储将更有可能降息。</p>
</div><p>But if the Fed does go ahead and lower interest rates in September, it would likely be a near-unprecedented move, says Jim Bianco, who runs his own research firm, Bianco Research:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果美联储在 9 月真的降息，这将是一个近乎前所未有的举动，生物研究公司 Bianco Research 的吉姆·比安科表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>YoY Core CPI, 3.1%</p>
<p>Up 0.3% in the last 3-months</p>
<p>In the last 40 YEARS, only once has the Fed CUT rates when core was above 3% AND the 3m chg was &gt;0.3%, Oct 1990 to Mar 1991.</p>
<p>Agree with @EpsilonTheory, the 2% infaltion target is dead.</p>
<p>We are accepting a higher inflation world. pic.twitter.com/wJrdM4UyHi</p>
<p>-- Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) August 12, 2025</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>同比核心 CPI，3.1%</p>
<p>在过去 3 个月上升 0.3%</p>
<p>在过去 40 年中，只有一次美联储在核心 CPI 超过 3% 且 3 个月变化超过 0.3% 时降息，发生在 1990 年 10 月至 1991 年 3 月。</p>
<p>同意 @EpsilonTheory，2% 的通胀目标已经死了。</p>
<p>我们正在接受一个更高通胀的世界。 pic.twitter.com/wJrdM4UyHi</p>
<p>-- 吉姆·比安科 (@biancoresearch) 2025 年 8 月 12 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>As stated by Bianco, the Fed puts more weight onto core inflation because energy and food prices are more volatile and can be influenced by other factors, meaning they aren't always the best indicators of inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation target is 2%, although many like Bianco have argued that the Fed has more or less abandoned this metric and may be more focused on the labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如比安科所述，美联储更重视核心通胀，因为能源和食品价格波动较大，可能受到其他因素的影响，这意味着它们并不总是通胀的最佳指标。美联储的首选通胀目标是 2%，尽管许多人像比安科一样认为美联储在某种程度上已经放弃了这一指标，可能更关注劳动市场。</p>
</div><h2>Unchartered territory</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未知领域</h2>
</div><p>While estimates of the Fed's likelihood to cut rates change constantly, seeing such a high chance for a cut in September is certainly a hard number to ignore. There are only a few key data points still to be reported before the Fed's September meeting, so new data would need to clearly show higher inflation to dissuade the Fed from cutting. They would also need to be of more concern to Fed board voters than the weakening labor market data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美联储降息的可能性估计不断变化，但在 9 月看到如此高的降息概率无疑是一个难以忽视的数字。在美联储 9 月会议之前，只有少数关键数据点仍需报告，因此新数据需要明确显示更高的通胀，以劝阻美联储降息。它们还需要对美联储理事会投票者比疲软的劳动市场数据更具关注。</p>
</div><p>That said, Bianco's messaging makes sense. It's possible the Fed views inflation as artificially high, given the amount of support put into the economy during the brunt of the pandemic, and that inflation will fall closer to the Fed's 2% target over time. The jobs data have shown weakening in the labor market in recent months, with the economy only adding about 73,000 jobs in July and revising prior-month numbers significantly lower. Recent unemployment claims growth is also of concern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，比安科的观点是有道理的。考虑到在疫情最严重时期对经济的支持，可能美联储将通胀视为人为高，通胀将在未来逐渐接近美联储的 2% 目标。就业数据在最近几个月显示出劳动市场的疲软，7 月份经济仅增加约 73,000 个就业岗位，并且对前几个月的数据进行了大幅下调。最近失业申请的增长也令人担忧。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. economy is powered by consumer spending, so if unemployment begins to rise, that could blunt the key force driving economic growth. It's also not quite clear how the Trump administration's immigration policies will impact the labor market. For instance, fewer immigrants in the country can skew data on job growth and unemployment rates, creating a false narrative about how overall employment is actually faring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济由消费者支出驱动，因此如果失业开始上升，这可能会削弱推动经济增长的关键力量。特朗普政府的移民政策对劳动市场的影响也不太明确。例如，国内移民减少可能会扭曲就业增长和失业率的数据，造成关于整体就业状况的虚假叙述。</p>
</div><p>The fact that the Fed is strongly predicted to cut rates despite the data Bianco cited shows the economy is in uncharted waters. Investors should understand that this means things may happen differently than in past cycles. That could mean higher highs or perhaps a potential pullback on the horizon. We don't know, but it's something for all investors to be aware of so they can make calmer, less rash decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储尽管面临比安科所引用的数据仍被强烈预测降息，表明经济正处于未知领域。投资者应理解，这意味着事情可能与过去的周期有所不同。这可能意味着更高的高点，或者可能在前方出现回调。我们不知道，但这是所有投资者都需要注意的事情，以便做出更冷静、更不冲动的决策。</p>
</div>

There Is a 83% Chance the Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates in September. Doing So Would be Nearly Unprecedented.

- 根据 CME Group 的 FedWatch 工具，9 月降息概率约为 83%。  
- 7 月 CPI 报告显示，核心通胀年增 3.1%。  
- 美联储可能在不确定的经济环境中采取降息措施。  

美联储在九月份降息的可能性为 83%。如果真的降息，这将是几乎前所未有的举动