<p>八月对股市来说是一个波动的月份，因为投资者试图预测美联储在利率上的下一步行动。这就是为什么本周所有的目光都集中在怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔。8 月 22 日，周五，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将发表一篇演讲，这通常 <strong>预示着货币政策的长期变化</strong>。</p>
<p>由于市场已经预期九月份将降息 25 个基点，鲍威尔的语气可能会引发短期波动。更重要的是，鲍威尔所暗示的方向可能决定哪些行业将引领市场上涨，哪些则滞后。</p>
<p>获取 <strong>投资新闻</strong> 提醒：</p>
<h2>杰克逊霍尔：市场动向的历史性场所</h2>
<p>杰克逊霍尔研讨会是由堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的年度活动。这是中央银行讨论全球经济关键问题的时刻。这也是一个以重要政策信号而闻名的活动。例如：</p>
<ul>
<li>在 2010 年，美联储主席本·伯南克首次暗示了量化宽松（QE）政策，这成为接下来十多年主导的货币政策。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>在 2022 年，鲍威尔在讨论利率未来走向时引入了 “高位持续” 的说法。</li>
</ul>
<p>通常，杰克逊霍尔会议对投资者来说是一个附属事件。然而，今年的会议是在一个复杂的经济背景下进行的。</p>
<p>一方面，<strong>通胀正在减缓，但仍高于美联储偏好的 2% 目标</strong>。鲍威尔曾表示，特朗普政府的关税政策可能会推动通胀，而降息只会加剧这一情况。</p>
<p>另一方面，虽然 “消费者” 似乎保持稳定，但这实际上取决于你所谈论的消费者是哪一类。这是一个分化的经济，财报季显示低收入到中等收入的消费者正面临压力。</p>
<p>考虑到这一点，投资者应该将这次演讲视为一条路线图，而不是一个目的地。以下是一些值得考虑的想法。</p>
<h2>如果降息看起来可能，哪些行业会受益？</h2>
<p>较低的利率将对 <strong>人工智能（AI）股票</strong> 以及其他科技股和成长股普遍利好。这些公司中的许多都拥有高估值。然而，它们也在追求激进的资本支出计划，这可能会受益于较低的折现率。</p>
<p>另一个值得考虑的领域是 <strong>房地产投资信托（REITs）</strong> 和公用事业股票。下降的债券收益率使它们的股息对寻求收入的投资者更具吸引力。</p>
<p>第三个值得关注的行业是 <strong>小盘股</strong>。许多这些公司需要债务来融资其运营。较低的利率提供了更好的资本获取机会。</p>
<h2>如果鲍威尔保持稳定，哪些行业会受益？</h2>
<p>不要陷入 “没有降息” 就是看跌的陷阱。鲍威尔坚持不降息的理由是美联储相信经济稳定且在增长。如果是这样，那么投资者仍然会有机会。这些机会包括：</p>
<ul>
<li>金融股，特别是银行股：高位持续的利率将改善净利差。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>能源股和基础材料股：如果美联储对未来经济增长表示信心，商品需求可能会增加。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>防御性股票</strong>：这包括消费品和医疗保健等行业。拥有可靠现金流和强大资产负债表的公司在不确定时期提供避风港。</li>
</ul>
<h2>长期投资者应超越噪音</h2>
<p>对于散户投资者来说，关键的收获是不要对头条新闻过度反应。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲可能会在短期内推动市场，但这些波动往往是暂时的。美联储的政策路径随着时间的推移而演变，押注于单一演讲的投资组合通常不是一个成功的策略。</p>
<p>相反，长期投资者可能希望 <strong>利用波动性作为机会</strong>，要么在抛售期间增加高质量的持仓，要么轮换到与多年增长主题相一致的行业。目前，这意味着人工智能、能源转型或医疗创新。投资这些行业可能比追逐美联储驱动的反弹更具回报。</p>
<p>最终，鲍威尔的演讲将为投资者提供一个关于经济未来可能走向的路线图。但推动长期表现的仍然是公司的基本面。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在哪里？</h2>
<p>在你进行下一笔交易之前，你会想听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。</p>
<p>我们的团队已经确定了五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向他们的客户推荐，现在就买入，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而且没有一只大名鼎鼎的股票在名单上。</p>
<p>他们认为这五只股票是投资者现在应该购买的五家最佳公司……</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔发表的演讲预计将引发市场波动，影响各个行业的表现，这取决于潜在的利率信号。如果暗示将降息，人工智能、科技、房地产投资信托和小盘股等行业可能会受益。相反，如果利率保持稳定，金融、能源和防御性股票可能会表现良好。投资者被建议关注长期策略，而不是对短期市场波动做出反应，因为鲍威尔的演讲将勾勒未来经济方向，但公司基本面最终将驱动表现</p>

<p>August has been a volatile month for stocks as investors try to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. That’s why all eyes are on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week. On Friday, August 22, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech that often <strong>signals longer-term shifts in monetary policy</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>八月对股市来说是一个波动的月份，因为投资者试图预测美联储在利率上的下一步行动。这就是为什么本周所有的目光都集中在怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔。8 月 22 日，周五，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将发表一篇演讲，这通常 <strong>预示着货币政策的长期变化</strong>。</p>
</div><p>With markets already pricing in a 25-basis-point cut in September, Powell’s tone is likely to spark short-term volatility. More importantly, the direction Powell signals could determine which sectors lead the market higher, and which lag behind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于市场已经预期九月份将降息 25 个基点，鲍威尔的语气可能会引发短期波动。更重要的是，鲍威尔所暗示的方向可能决定哪些行业将引领市场上涨，哪些则滞后。</p>
</div><p>Get <strong>investing news</strong> alerts:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取 <strong>投资新闻</strong> 提醒：</p>
</div><h2>Jackson Hole: A Historic Venue for Market-Moving Fed Signals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>杰克逊霍尔：市场动向的历史性场所</h2>
</div><p>The Jackson Hole symposium is an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This is a time when central banks discuss critical global economic issues. It’s also an event that’s known for significant policy signals. For example:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杰克逊霍尔研讨会是由堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的年度活动。这是中央银行讨论全球经济关键问题的时刻。这也是一个以重要政策信号而闻名的活动。例如：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>In 2010, Fed chair Ben Bernanke first hinted at the quantitative easing (QE) policy that became the dominant monetary policy for the next dozen years.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在 2010 年，美联储主席本·伯南克首次暗示了量化宽松（QE）政策，这成为接下来十多年主导的货币政策。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>In 2022, Powell introduced the phrase “higher for longer” when discussing the future direction of interest rates.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在 2022 年，鲍威尔在讨论利率未来走向时引入了 “高位持续” 的说法。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Normally, the Jackson Hole meeting is an ancillary event for investors. However, this year’s meeting is taking place under a muddled economic backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，杰克逊霍尔会议对投资者来说是一个附属事件。然而，今年的会议是在一个复杂的经济背景下进行的。</p>
</div><p>On the one hand, <strong>inflation is moderating but remains above the Fed’s preferred 2% target</strong>. Powell has expressed concerns that the Trump administration’s tariff policy will likely fuel inflation, which would only be enhanced by rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，<strong>通胀正在减缓，但仍高于美联储偏好的 2% 目标</strong>。鲍威尔曾表示，特朗普政府的关税政策可能会推动通胀，而降息只会加剧这一情况。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, while the “consumer” seems to be holding up, it really depends on which consumer you’re talking about. This is a bifurcated economy, and earnings season is showing that low- to middle-income consumers are under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，虽然 “消费者” 似乎保持稳定，但这实际上取决于你所谈论的消费者是哪一类。这是一个分化的经济，财报季显示低收入到中等收入的消费者正面临压力。</p>
</div><p>With that in mind, investors should view this speech as a roadmap rather than a destination. Here are some ideas to consider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一点，投资者应该将这次演讲视为一条路线图，而不是一个目的地。以下是一些值得考虑的想法。</p>
</div><h2>What Sectors Benefit If Rate Cuts Look Likely?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果降息看起来可能，哪些行业会受益？</h2>
</div><p>Lower rates would be <strong>bullish for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks</strong> as well as other technology stocks and growth stocks in general. Many of these companies sport high valuations. However, they are also pursuing aggressive capital expenditure programs that could benefit from lower discount rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较低的利率将对 <strong>人工智能（AI）股票</strong> 以及其他科技股和成长股普遍利好。这些公司中的许多都拥有高估值。然而，它们也在追求激进的资本支出计划，这可能会受益于较低的折现率。</p>
</div><p>Another area to consider would be <strong>real estate investment trusts (REITs)</strong> and utilities stocks. Falling bond yields make their dividends more attractive to income-seeking investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个值得考虑的领域是 <strong>房地产投资信托（REITs）</strong> 和公用事业股票。下降的债券收益率使它们的股息对寻求收入的投资者更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>A third sector to watch would be <strong>small-cap stocks</strong>. Many of these companies require debt to finance their operations. Lower rates provide better access to capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三个值得关注的行业是 <strong>小盘股</strong>。许多这些公司需要债务来融资其运营。较低的利率提供了更好的资本获取机会。</p>
</div><h2>What Sectors Benefit If Powell Holds Steady?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果鲍威尔保持稳定，哪些行业会受益？</h2>
</div><p>Don’t fall for the trap that “no cuts” is bearish. Powell’s stated reason for holding the line on rate cuts is the Fed’s belief that the economy is stable and growing. If that’s the case, then there will still be opportunities for investors. These include:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要陷入 “没有降息” 就是看跌的陷阱。鲍威尔坚持不降息的理由是美联储相信经济稳定且在增长。如果是这样，那么投资者仍然会有机会。这些机会包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Finance stocks, particularly bank stocks: Higher-for-longer interest rates will improve net interest margins.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>金融股，特别是银行股：高位持续的利率将改善净利差。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Energy stocks and basic materials stocks: If the Fed signals confidence in future economic growth, commodity demand is likely to increase.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>能源股和基础材料股：如果美联储对未来经济增长表示信心，商品需求可能会增加。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Defensive stocks</strong>: This includes sectors like consumer staples and healthcare. Companies with reliable cash flows and strong balance sheets provide shelter during uncertain periods.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>防御性股票</strong>：这包括消费品和医疗保健等行业。拥有可靠现金流和强大资产负债表的公司在不确定时期提供避风港。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Long-Term Investors Should Look Beyond the Noise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>长期投资者应超越噪音</h2>
</div><p>For retail investors, the key takeaway is not to overreact to headlines. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will likely move markets in the short term, but those swings are often temporary. The Fed’s policy path evolves over time, and betting portfolios on a single speech is rarely a winning strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于散户投资者来说，关键的收获是不要对头条新闻过度反应。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲可能会在短期内推动市场，但这些波动往往是暂时的。美联储的政策路径随着时间的推移而演变，押注于单一演讲的投资组合通常不是一个成功的策略。</p>
</div><p>Instead, long-term investors may want to <strong>focus on using volatility as an opportunity</strong>, either by adding to high-quality positions during sell-offs or by rotating into sectors aligned with multi-year growth themes. Right now, that means artificial intelligence, the energy transition, or healthcare innovation. Investing in these sectors can be more rewarding than chasing Fed-driven rallies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，长期投资者可能希望 <strong>利用波动性作为机会</strong>，要么在抛售期间增加高质量的持仓，要么轮换到与多年增长主题相一致的行业。目前，这意味着人工智能、能源转型或医疗创新。投资这些行业可能比追逐美联储驱动的反弹更具回报。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, Powell's speech will provide investors with a roadmap of what is likely to come for the economy. But it’s company fundamentals that drive performance over the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，鲍威尔的演讲将为投资者提供一个关于经济未来可能走向的路线图。但推动长期表现的仍然是公司的基本面。</p>
</div><h2>Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在哪里？</h2>
</div><p>Before you make your next trade, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你进行下一笔交易之前，你会想听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。</p>
</div><p>Our team has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and none of the big name stocks were on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的团队已经确定了五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向他们的客户推荐，现在就买入，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而且没有一只大名鼎鼎的股票在名单上。</p>
</div><p>They believe these five stocks are the five best companies for investors to buy now...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们认为这五只股票是投资者现在应该购买的五家最佳公司……</p>
</div><p>See The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

杰克逊霍尔会议 2025：美联储的信号可能会迅速影响股市