<p>最近发布的美联储七月会议纪要确认，支持强硬通胀立场的官员仍然掌控局面，选择维持利率不变，以监测关税对经济的影响。</p>
<h2>更大的通胀风险推动鹰派立场？</h2>
<p>委员会大多数参与者认为，通胀的上行风险是其两个主要风险中更大的一个。</p>
<p>这一鹰派立场出现在贸易政策的外部压力继续使经济前景复杂化之际。根据一位分析师的说法，关税是使通胀成为中央银行首要关注因素的主要因素。</p>
<p>“通胀仍然是美联储官员关注的焦点，因为关税仍然对经济和通胀的上升构成风险，”<strong>Eric Teal</strong>，Comerica Wealth Management 的首席投资官表示。</p>
<p>Teal 指出，八月份进口的有效关税率上升至约 16%。这一情绪在美联储的内部讨论中得到了反映，参与者观察到 “去通胀似乎停滞不前，关税对商品价格通胀施加了上行压力。”</p>
<h2>通胀风险超过失业风险</h2>
<p>将联邦基金利率维持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 的目标区间的决定并非一致通过，显示出委员会内部日益加大的分歧。<strong>Michelle W. Bowman</strong> 和 <strong>Christopher J. Waller</strong> 两位理事均投票反对该决定，倾向于将目标区间下调 25 个基点。</p>
<p>他们的立场与总统 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 最近的要求一致，后者在社交媒体上批评中央银行损害了住房行业，坚称 “没有通胀”，并呼吁 “大幅降息”。</p>
<p>然而，多数意见占了上风。<strong>Chris Zaccarelli</strong>，Northlight Asset Management 的首席投资官表示，会议纪要清楚地表明了美联储为何没有降息。他说，这一决定是因为 “大多数官员认为更高通胀的风险超过了更高失业的风险。”</p>
<h2>所有目光聚焦杰克逊霍尔、八月 CPI 和九月美联储决策</h2>
<p>随着七月决定的解释，所有目光现在转向美联储九月的下一次会议。</p>
<p>Zaccarelli 建议，主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 可能会在即将到来的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “保持低调”，强调美联储仍然依赖数据，并需要在做出下一步行动之前查看关键的就业和通胀报告。</p>
<p>为期三天的经济政策研讨会将于 8 月 21 日星期四开始，并持续到 8 月 23 日。2025 年研讨会的主题是 “转型中的劳动市场：人口统计、生产力与宏观经济政策。”</p>
<p><strong>价格走势</strong></p>
<p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ，分别跟踪标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数，周四在盘前交易中下跌。根据 Benzinga Pro 的数据，SPY 下跌 0.17%，报 637.03 美元，而 QQQ 下跌 0.088%，报 565.40 美元。</p>
<p><strong>下一步阅读</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Mohamed El-Erian 抨击 ‘向后看’ 的 Powell，质疑美联储 2% 的通胀目标——‘太晚了’</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
<p><em>来源：Jack Gruber-USA TODAY/ Imagn</em></p>

<p>美联储 7 月会议纪要显示，鹰派官员将通胀控制置于优先地位，在关税担忧加剧的情况下维持利率。分析师指出，有效关税已达到 16%，这增加了通胀风险。委员会内部出现分歧，一些成员主张降息，但大多数成员因通胀担忧超过失业风险而倾向于维持利率不变。现在的关注点转向即将召开的 9 月会议和关键经济数据的发布</p>

<p>Recently released minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting confirm that officials favoring a tough stance on inflation remain in control, opting to hold interest rates steady as they monitor the economic impact of tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近发布的美联储七月会议纪要确认，支持强硬通胀立场的官员仍然掌控局面，选择维持利率不变，以监测关税对经济的影响。</p>
</div><h2>Hawkish Stance Fueled By Greater Inflation Risks?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更大的通胀风险推动鹰派立场？</h2>
</div><p>A majority of the committee's participants judged that the upside risk to inflation was the greater of its two primary risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委员会大多数参与者认为，通胀的上行风险是其两个主要风险中更大的一个。</p>
</div><p>This hawkish position comes as external pressures from trade policy continue to complicate the economic outlook. According to one analyst, tariffs are a primary factor keeping inflation a top-tier concern for the central bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一鹰派立场出现在贸易政策的外部压力继续使经济前景复杂化之际。根据一位分析师的说法，关税是使通胀成为中央银行首要关注因素的主要因素。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Inflation remains on the front burner for Fed officials as tariffs still pose a risk to the economy and a pickup in inflation,&#34; said <strong>Eric Teal</strong>, Chief Investment Officer for Comerica Wealth Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通胀仍然是美联储官员关注的焦点，因为关税仍然对经济和通胀的上升构成风险，”<strong>Eric Teal</strong>，Comerica Wealth Management 的首席投资官表示。</p>
</div><p>Teal noted that the effective tariff rate on imports rose to about 16% in August. This sentiment is mirrored in the Fed's internal discussion, where participants observed that “disinflation appeared to have stalled, with tariffs putting upward pressure on goods price inflation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Teal 指出，八月份进口的有效关税率上升至约 16%。这一情绪在美联储的内部讨论中得到了反映，参与者观察到 “去通胀似乎停滞不前，关税对商品价格通胀施加了上行压力。”</p>
</div><h2>Inflation Risk Outweighs Unemployment Risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通胀风险超过失业风险</h2>
</div><p>The decision to keep the federal funds rate in a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% was not unanimous, revealing a growing split within the committee. Governors <strong>Michelle W. Bowman</strong> and <strong>Christopher J. Waller</strong> both voted against the decision, preferring to lower the target range by 25 basis points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将联邦基金利率维持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 的目标区间的决定并非一致通过，显示出委员会内部日益加大的分歧。<strong>Michelle W. Bowman</strong> 和 <strong>Christopher J. Waller</strong> 两位理事均投票反对该决定，倾向于将目标区间下调 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Their position aligns with recent demands from President <strong>Donald Trump</strong>, who has criticized the central bank on social media for hurting the housing industry, insisting that “There is no Inflation” and calling for a “major Rate Cut”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们的立场与总统 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 最近的要求一致，后者在社交媒体上批评中央银行损害了住房行业，坚称 “没有通胀”，并呼吁 “大幅降息”。</p>
</div><p>However, the majority view prevailed. <strong>Chris Zaccarelli</strong>, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management, said the minutes clearly show why the Fed didn’t cut rates. The decision was made &#34;because the majority of officials thought the risk of higher inflation outweighed the risk of higher unemployment,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，多数意见占了上风。<strong>Chris Zaccarelli</strong>，Northlight Asset Management 的首席投资官表示，会议纪要清楚地表明了美联储为何没有降息。他说，这一决定是因为 “大多数官员认为更高通胀的风险超过了更高失业的风险。”</p>
</div><h2>All Eyes On Jackson Hole, August CPI, And September Fed Decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>所有目光聚焦杰克逊霍尔、八月 CPI 和九月美联储决策</h2>
</div><p>With the July decision explained, all eyes now turn to the Fed's next meeting in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着七月决定的解释，所有目光现在转向美联储九月的下一次会议。</p>
</div><p>Zaccarelli suggested that Chair <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> is likely to “keep his cards close to his vest” at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, emphasizing that the Fed remains data dependent and will need to see key jobs and inflation reports before making its next move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zaccarelli 建议，主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 可能会在即将到来的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上 “保持低调”，强调美联储仍然依赖数据，并需要在做出下一步行动之前查看关键的就业和通胀报告。</p>
</div><p>The three-day Economic Policy Symposium begins on Thursday, Aug. 21, and will go on till Aug. 23. The theme for the 2025 symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为期三天的经济政策研讨会将于 8 月 21 日星期四开始，并持续到 8 月 23 日。2025 年研讨会的主题是 “转型中的劳动市场：人口统计、生产力与宏观经济政策。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Price Action</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>价格走势</strong></p>
</div><p>The <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY and <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ, which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was down 0.17% at $637.03, while the QQQ declined 0.088% to $565.40, according to Benzinga Pro data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ，分别跟踪标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数，周四在盘前交易中下跌。根据 Benzinga Pro 的数据，SPY 下跌 0.17%，报 637.03 美元，而 QQQ 下跌 0.088%，报 565.40 美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>下一步阅读</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Mohamed El-Erian Slams ‘Backward-Looking’ Powell, Question’s Fed’s 2% Inflation Target—’Being Too Late’</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Mohamed El-Erian 抨击 ‘向后看’ 的 Powell，质疑美联储 2% 的通胀目标——‘太晚了’</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong> <em>This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY/ Imagn</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：Jack Gruber-USA TODAY/ Imagn</em></p>
</div>

Fed Minutes Reveal Hawkish Officials Still In Control: Economist Says 16% Effective Tariffs Put Inflation 'On The Front Burner'

- 美联储七月会议纪要显示，官员们倾向于维持利率不变以监测关税影响。  
- 大多数委员会成员认为，通胀上行风险大于失业风险。  
- 关注即将召开的杰克逊霍尔研讨会及九月的美联储决策。  

美联储纪要显示鹰派官员仍然掌控局面：经济学家表示，16% 的有效关税将通胀问题 ‘推到前台’