<p>鲍威尔将在通胀与疲软的就业市场之间走钢丝</p>
<p>八月市场流动性稀薄可能加剧波动性</p>
<p>对即将放松政策的反对被视为最大的市场风险</p>
<p>作者：达维德·巴布西亚</p>
<p>纽约，8 月 21 日（路透社）- 投资者正准备迎接波动，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在遏制通胀和支持劳动市场之间走钢丝，而八月交易稀薄可能放大他周五在杰克逊霍尔演讲后的市场波动。</p>
<p>华尔街普遍预计鲍威尔将暗示货币政策即将放松，但对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税可能重新点燃价格压力的担忧，可能迫使他谨慎行事。同时，鲍威尔面临来自特朗普政府的持续压力，要求降息，使他在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上的最后一次讲话成为美联储独立性的考验。</p>
<p>“从宏观经济的角度来看，这里存在一个市场钢丝绳，介于通胀数据和就业市场之间，” Nuveen 固定收益策略负责人托尼·罗德里格斯表示。“而现在你还要结合他必须应对的政治钢丝绳，这通常是不存在的。这使得情况变得极其困难和棘手，” 他说。</p>
<p>增加戏剧性的是，特朗普周三敦促美联储理事丽莎·库克因其政治盟友提出的抵押贷款指控辞职，加大了他对美国中央银行的影响力。库克表示，她 “没有被欺负辞职的意图”。</p>
<p>“这次（杰克逊霍尔）将是鲍威尔谈论独立性重要性的好机会，” 第一鹰投资的投资组合经理伊达娜·阿皮奥表示，并指出这种压力最终可能导致美联储委员会采取更鸽派的利率政策。</p>
<p>七月的就业报告疲软，以及对早期就业数据的重大下调，增强了市场对美国中央银行将在今年晚些时候将利率从当前的 4.25%-4.5% 区间下调的押注。但七月批发价格的激增使投资者对美联储下次利率会议上半点降息的希望黯淡，市场预计今年剩余时间将进行约两次 25 个基点的降息。</p>
<p>到目前为止，尽管特朗普的进口关税不断升级，消费者仍未遭遇价格的急剧上涨，但人们对这些关税在未来几个月将如何影响家庭的疑虑依然存在。</p>
<p>“我预计鲍威尔将暗示货币政策的变化，表明我们将在 9 月 17 日恢复降息周期，市场将欢迎这一消息，” 州街投资管理的首席投资策略师迈克尔·阿罗内表示。“但我认为他会不愿意对未来的降息路径给予过多透明度，因为他知道自己不知道的事情，” 阿罗内说，指的是关税对通胀的影响。</p>
<p>‘预计波动性’</p>
<p>投资者认为，鲍威尔对即将转向货币政策放松的任何反对意见是进入杰克逊霍尔，怀俄明州活动前最大的风险，夏季交易流动性差预计将加剧市场反应。</p>
<p>“这是八月的倒数第二周，星期五，市场可能会因为流动性稍微不足而更容易受到一些波动的影响……（这）可能导致一些意想不到的变动，” Nuveen 的罗德里格斯说。</p>
<p>鲍威尔的讲话正值市场对滞胀的担忧之中，滞胀是指增长缓慢和顽固通胀的可怕组合，这可能限制美联储在华尔街救助时的能力，正如本周科技股的抛售突显了对高股票估值的长期担忧。</p>
<p>“滞胀是一个风险，” D.A.戴维森的共同首席投资官兼投资管理研究主任詹姆斯·拉根表示。“如果鲍威尔对 9 月降息的预期有所收缩，我认为在这种情况下股票会下跌，显然你会看到短期债券收益率可能会上升，” 他说。</p>
<p>当然，鲍威尔的讲话最终可能对市场来说令人失望。七月的生产者价格数据消除了美联储在九月进行大幅降息的可能性，限制了鲍威尔对这些预期的抗拒空间。</p>
<p>在 2022 年的杰克逊霍尔会议上，鲍威尔重申了已故美联储主席保罗·沃尔克的强硬誓言，誓言要压制通胀。这一次，随着通胀约高于美联储 2% 目标 1 个百分点，且就业市场虽有所放缓但仍然健康，可能会出现更微妙的平衡。</p>
<p>尽管如此，平衡的信息可能被视为鹰派，可能在接下来的几周内引发股票和债券的价格波动，Neuberger Berman 财富管理的首席投资官香农·萨科西亚表示。</p>
<p>“我们对客户的建议是要预期波动性，” 她说。</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>投资者正在为市场波动做准备，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔讨论通胀和就业市场。关于关税的担忧以及特朗普政府的压力使他的货币政策立场变得复杂。虽然预计会降息，但鲍威尔的任何反对意见都可能带来风险。目前的市场流动性可能会放大对他演讲的反应，滞胀的担忧依然存在。分析师建议，平衡的信息可能会导致股票和债券价格的波动，敦促客户做好应对波动的准备</p>

<p>Powell to walk tightrope between inflation, softening job market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔将在通胀与疲软的就业市场之间走钢丝</p>
</div><p>Thin August market liquidity could exacerbate volatility</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>八月市场流动性稀薄可能加剧波动性</p>
</div><p>Pushback against imminent easing seen as biggest market risk</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对即将放松政策的反对被视为最大的市场风险</p>
</div><p>By Davide Barbuscia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：达维德·巴布西亚</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Investors are bracing for volatility as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell walks a fine line between curbing inflation and supporting the labor market, with thin August trading poised to magnify any market moves from his Jackson Hole speech on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，8 月 21 日（路透社）- 投资者正准备迎接波动，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在遏制通胀和支持劳动市场之间走钢丝，而八月交易稀薄可能放大他周五在杰克逊霍尔演讲后的市场波动。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street largely expects Powell will signal an imminent easing in monetary policy, but concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could reignite price pressures may force him to tread carefully. Meanwhile, Powell faces relentless pressure from the Trump administration to cut interest rates, turning his final address as Fed boss at the Jackson Hole economic symposium into a test of Fed independence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街普遍预计鲍威尔将暗示货币政策即将放松，但对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税可能重新点燃价格压力的担忧，可能迫使他谨慎行事。同时，鲍威尔面临来自特朗普政府的持续压力，要求降息，使他在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上的最后一次讲话成为美联储独立性的考验。</p>
</div><p>“There is a market tightrope here from a macroeconomic perspective between the inflation data and what’s happening in the employment market,” said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen. “And now you combine that with the political tightrope that’s not usually there that he has to navigate. It makes for an incredibly difficult, tricky situation,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“从宏观经济的角度来看，这里存在一个市场钢丝绳，介于通胀数据和就业市场之间，” Nuveen 固定收益策略负责人托尼·罗德里格斯表示。“而现在你还要结合他必须应对的政治钢丝绳，这通常是不存在的。这使得情况变得极其困难和棘手，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the drama, Trump on Wednesday urged Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign over mortgage allegations raised by one of his political allies, intensifying his effort to gain influence over the U.S. central bank. Cook said she had “no intention of being bullied” out of her post.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增加戏剧性的是，特朗普周三敦促美联储理事丽莎·库克因其政治盟友提出的抵押贷款指控辞职，加大了他对美国中央银行的影响力。库克表示，她 “没有被欺负辞职的意图”。</p>
</div><p>“This (Jackson Hole) would be a good opportunity for Powell to speak about the importance of independence,” said Idanna Appio, portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments, noting that the pressure could eventually lead to a more dovish rate-setting Fed board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这次（杰克逊霍尔）将是鲍威尔谈论独立性重要性的好机会，” 第一鹰投资的投资组合经理伊达娜·阿皮奥表示，并指出这种压力最终可能导致美联储委员会采取更鸽派的利率政策。</p>
</div><p>A soft July jobs report and hefty downward revisions to earlier job figures fueled bets the U.S. central bank would cut interest rates from the current 4.25%-4.5% range later this year. But a surge in wholesale prices in July dimmed investor hopes for a half-point move at the Fed’s next rate-setting meeting in September, leaving markets braced for about two 25 basis point cuts for the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七月的就业报告疲软，以及对早期就业数据的重大下调，增强了市场对美国中央银行将在今年晚些时候将利率从当前的 4.25%-4.5% 区间下调的押注。但七月批发价格的激增使投资者对美联储下次利率会议上半点降息的希望黯淡，市场预计今年剩余时间将进行约两次 25 个基点的降息。</p>
</div><p>So far, consumers have been spared a sharp jump in prices despite Trump’s escalating import tariffs, but doubts linger over how much of those duties will filter through to households in the months ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，尽管特朗普的进口关税不断升级，消费者仍未遭遇价格的急剧上涨，但人们对这些关税在未来几个月将如何影响家庭的疑虑依然存在。</p>
</div><p>“I expect that Powell will signal a change in monetary policy that suggests that we’ll resume the rate-cutting cycle on September 17, and markets will welcome that news,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management. “But I think he’ll be reluctant to give too much transparency on the future path of rate cuts, because he knows what he doesn’t know,” Arone said, referring to the inflationary impact of tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我预计鲍威尔将暗示货币政策的变化，表明我们将在 9 月 17 日恢复降息周期，市场将欢迎这一消息，” 州街投资管理的首席投资策略师迈克尔·阿罗内表示。“但我认为他会不愿意对未来的降息路径给予过多透明度，因为他知道自己不知道的事情，” 阿罗内说，指的是关税对通胀的影响。</p>
</div><p>‘EXPECT VOLATILITY’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘预计波动性’</p>
</div><p>Investors see any pushback from Powell against an imminent shift to monetary policy easing as the biggest risk heading into the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, event, with poor liquidity in summer trading expected to exacerbate the market reaction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者认为，鲍威尔对即将转向货币政策放松的任何反对意见是进入杰克逊霍尔，怀俄明州活动前最大的风险，夏季交易流动性差预计将加剧市场反应。</p>
</div><p>“It’s next to the last week of August, it’s Friday, markets might be a little more susceptible to some volatility as a result of a little bit less liquidity … (this) might lead to something of an unexpected move,” said Rodriguez at Nuveen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是八月的倒数第二周，星期五，市场可能会因为流动性稍微不足而更容易受到一些波动的影响……（这）可能导致一些意想不到的变动，” Nuveen 的罗德里格斯说。</p>
</div><p>Powell’s speech comes amid market concerns of stagflation, a dreaded mix of sluggish growth and sticky inflation that could limit the Fed’s ability to ride to Wall Street’s rescue, just as a tech stock selloff this week highlighted long-standing worries over steep stock valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔的讲话正值市场对滞胀的担忧之中，滞胀是指增长缓慢和顽固通胀的可怕组合，这可能限制美联储在华尔街救助时的能力，正如本周科技股的抛售突显了对高股票估值的长期担忧。</p>
</div><p>“Stagflation is a risk,” said James Ragan, co-chief investment officer and director of investment management research at D.A. Davidson. “If Powell pulls back on the expectation for a rate cut in September, I think stocks would fall in that scenario and you obviously would see probably bond yields rise at least at the short end,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“滞胀是一个风险，” D.A.戴维森的共同首席投资官兼投资管理研究主任詹姆斯·拉根表示。“如果鲍威尔对 9 月降息的预期有所收缩，我认为在这种情况下股票会下跌，显然你会看到短期债券收益率可能会上升，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, Powell’s address may ultimately be underwhelming for markets. Hot producer prices data in July removed the possibility that the Fed could deliver a jumbo-sized cut in September, limiting the scope for resistance from an inflation-focused Powell against those expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，鲍威尔的讲话最终可能对市场来说令人失望。七月的生产者价格数据消除了美联储在九月进行大幅降息的可能性，限制了鲍威尔对这些预期的抗拒空间。</p>
</div><p>At the Jackson Hole conference in 2022, Powell echoed late Fed chair Paul Volcker with a hardline vow to crush inflation. This time, with inflation about 1 percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target and a softening but still healthy job market, a subtler balance could be in the cards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年的杰克逊霍尔会议上，鲍威尔重申了已故美联储主席保罗·沃尔克的强硬誓言，誓言要压制通胀。这一次，随着通胀约高于美联储 2% 目标 1 个百分点，且就业市场虽有所放缓但仍然健康，可能会出现更微妙的平衡。</p>
</div><p>Still, a balanced message could be perceived as hawkish, sparking price fluctuations in stocks and bonds over the next few weeks, said Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer for wealth management at Neuberger Berman.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，平衡的信息可能被视为鹰派，可能在接下来的几周内引发股票和债券的价格波动，Neuberger Berman 财富管理的首席投资官香农·萨科西亚表示。</p>
</div><p>“Our advice to clients has been to expect volatility,” she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们对客户的建议是要预期波动性，” 她说。</p>
</div>

PREVIEW-Investors see risks for market as Powell walks tightrope at Jackson Hole

- 投资者预计美联储主席鲍威尔将在通胀与就业市场之间走钢丝。  
- 由于八月市场流动性不足，鲍威尔的讲话可能加剧市场波动。  
- 任何对货币政策放松的反对都被视为进入杰克逊霍尔会议的最大风险。

预览——投资者认为市场面临风险，因为鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上如履薄冰