<p>在 8 月 22 日的杰克逊霍尔会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔维持利率不变，但提到 “可以考虑降息”。虽然表面上似乎没有变化，但市场立即做出了反应。从美国 10 年期国债收益率来看，利率在讲话前已经呈下降趋势，但在他发言期间，从 <strong>4.31% → 4.25%</strong> 急剧下跌。</p>
<p>** 来源：TradingView 美国政府债券 10 年期收益率 8/22/25 **</p>
<p>这里需要认识的关键点是，收益率下降意味着债券需求上升。债券收益率与债券价格呈反向移动。当机构大量购买国债时，价格上涨，收益率必须下降，因为票息保持不变。因此，收益率的急剧下降可以解读为机构因预期降息而触发的购买。这使得分析市场情绪和机构资金流动在这一事件中的重要性。</p>
<h2><strong>来自机构流动的线索</strong></h2>
<p>杰克逊霍尔会议前后国债的购买并非巧合。<strong>全球宏观基金和对冲基金</strong> 率先行动。甚至在鲍威尔发言之前，他们已经扩大了长期国债头寸，已经将降息预期纳入考虑。CME FedWatch 数据证实了这一点：自 7 月就业报告发布以来，市场一直在持续定价 80% 以上的降息概率。</p>
<p><strong>地方机构（养老金、保险公司）</strong> 也参与其中，尽管更为谨慎。他们的购买可能是出于资产负债管理（ALM）的原因，以将负债与长期资产匹配。但结合降息预期，他们的购买以确保其头寸进一步加大了收益率的下降。</p>
<p><strong>量化基金</strong> 在其模型检测到收益率下降后，很可能紧随其后，迅速转向成长股指数期货。这不仅仅是趋势跟随，而是将债券价格信号与股票行业轮动相联系的算法交易。因此，国债的反弹蔓延到了科技和半导体股票。8 月 22 日的 TradePulse ETF 图表确认了成长股 ETF 的机构资金流入。</p>
<p>** 来源：TradePulse PowerInflows | 8/22 图表 [QQQ, SPY, VOO] **</p>
<p>不过，仍需保持谨慎。机构流动并不保证长期方向。一些交易可能是对冲或回补空头，这可能不会持续很长时间。对于散户投资者来说，最好将其视为对降息考虑的短期市场反应，直到正式的 9 月降息公告。</p>
<p>总之，杰克逊霍尔会议并没有改变政策，但将市场转移到了 “降息信念区”。机构首先通过国债行动，股票（特别是以成长股为基础的 ETF）随之而来。对于散户投资者来说，关键的收获是与机构流动保持一致，但要管理风险，并在不确定事件之前分批进入。</p>
<h2><strong>宏观与流动：机构支持的利率策略</strong></h2>
<p><em><strong>国债收益率作为领先指标</strong></em> 10 年期收益率是衡量 “机构情绪” 的最相关方式。请注意，收益率在鲍威尔发言之前就已经在变化。这是养老金和宏观基金的预期布局的证据。对于散户投资者来说，在美联储事件之前监测国债收益率提供了市场在公告后可能走向的路线图。</p>
<p>如果收益率在事件之前稳步下降，这表明机构购买势头和成长股反弹的更高概率，而平稳或反弹的收益率则表明降息预期较弱以及短期股票修正的风险。这一框架不仅适用于债券，也适用于股票、外汇和商品。</p>
<p><em><strong>机构增加对成长股的敞口</strong></em> 在降息周期中，利率敏感的行业如大型科技、人工智能和半导体往往受益最大。8 月 22 日的 TradePulse 数据显示，机构流入以成长为重点的 ETF，反映出旨在防御性平衡机构的上行捕获的策略。这种基于流动的决策是散户投资者可以积极监测和对齐的。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>

<p>在杰克逊霍尔会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示可能会降息，导致美国 10 年期国债收益率从 4.31% 降至 4.25%。这一下降表明债券需求增加，因为机构投资者预期降息，开始购买国债。全球宏观基金和对冲基金扩大了多头头寸，而地方机构则采取了防御性参与。随之而来的国债反弹影响了科技和半导体股票。散户投资者应与机构资金流动保持一致，同时管理风险，因为市场正转向 “降息信念区”。在美联储公告之前，监测国债收益率可以指导投资策略</p>

<p>At the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, Fed Chair Powell held rates steady but mentioned that &#34;rate cuts could be considered.&#34; While there appeared to be no change on the surface, markets reacted instantly. As seen in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the rate had already been trending lower before the speech, but during his remarks it plunged from <strong>4.31% → 4.25%</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 8 月 22 日的杰克逊霍尔会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔维持利率不变，但提到 “可以考虑降息”。虽然表面上似乎没有变化，但市场立即做出了反应。从美国 10 年期国债收益率来看，利率在讲话前已经呈下降趋势，但在他发言期间，从 <strong>4.31% → 4.25%</strong> 急剧下跌。</p>
</div><p>** Source : TradingView US Gov Bond 10yr yield 8/22/25**</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>** 来源：TradingView 美国政府债券 10 年期收益率 8/22/25 **</p>
</div><p>The key point here to recognize is that falling yields equals rising bond demand. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When institutions buy Treasuries in bulk, prices go up, and yields must fall since the coupon stays the same. Thus, the sharp drop can be interpreted as institutional buying triggered by expectations of rate cuts. That makes it essential to analyze both market sentiment and institutional flows around this event.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里需要认识的关键点是，收益率下降意味着债券需求上升。债券收益率与债券价格呈反向移动。当机构大量购买国债时，价格上涨，收益率必须下降，因为票息保持不变。因此，收益率的急剧下降可以解读为机构因预期降息而触发的购买。这使得分析市场情绪和机构资金流动在这一事件中的重要性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Clues from Institutional Flows</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>来自机构流动的线索</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Treasury buying before and after Jackson Hole meeting wasn't a coincidence. <strong>Global macro funds and hedge funds</strong> moved first. Even before Powell's speech, they had already expanded long Treasury positions, having priced in rate-cut expectations. CME FedWatch data confirms this: Markets had been consistently pricing in an 80%+ probability of cuts ever since the July employment report was released</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杰克逊霍尔会议前后国债的购买并非巧合。<strong>全球宏观基金和对冲基金</strong> 率先行动。甚至在鲍威尔发言之前，他们已经扩大了长期国债头寸，已经将降息预期纳入考虑。CME FedWatch 数据证实了这一点：自 7 月就业报告发布以来，市场一直在持续定价 80% 以上的降息概率。</p>
</div><p><strong>Local institutions (pensions, insurers)</strong> also joined in, though more defensively. Their purchases were likely for ALM (asset-liability management) reasons to match liabilities with longer-duration assets. But when combined with rate-cut expectations, their buying to secure their position amplified the yield drop</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>地方机构（养老金、保险公司）</strong> 也参与其中，尽管更为谨慎。他们的购买可能是出于资产负债管理（ALM）的原因，以将负债与长期资产匹配。但结合降息预期，他们的购买以确保其头寸进一步加大了收益率的下降。</p>
</div><p><strong>Quant funds</strong> most likely followed once their models detected falling yields, promptly pivoting into growth stock index futures. This wasn't just trend-following but algorithmic trading that links bond price signals with equity sector rotations. As a result, the Treasury rally spilled over into tech and semiconductor stocks. TradePulse ETF charts from August 22 confirm institutional inflows across growth-stock ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>量化基金</strong> 在其模型检测到收益率下降后，很可能紧随其后，迅速转向成长股指数期货。这不仅仅是趋势跟随，而是将债券价格信号与股票行业轮动相联系的算法交易。因此，国债的反弹蔓延到了科技和半导体股票。8 月 22 日的 TradePulse ETF 图表确认了成长股 ETF 的机构资金流入。</p>
</div><p>** Source : TradePulse PowerInflows | 8/22 chart[QQQ, SPY, VOO] **</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>** 来源：TradePulse PowerInflows | 8/22 图表 [QQQ, SPY, VOO] **</p>
</div><p>Still, caution is warranted. Institutional flows don't guarantee long-term direction. Some trades may be hedges or short-covering which may not last long term. For retail investors, it's better to treat it as short term market reaction to the consideration for rate cuts until the official September rate-cut announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，仍需保持谨慎。机构流动并不保证长期方向。一些交易可能是对冲或回补空头，这可能不会持续很长时间。对于散户投资者来说，最好将其视为对降息考虑的短期市场反应，直到正式的 9 月降息公告。</p>
</div><p>In short, Jackson Hole meeting didn't change policy, but it shifted the market into a &#34;rate-cut conviction zone.&#34; Institutions moved first via Treasuries, and equities(particularly growth stocks backed ETFs) followed. For retail investors, the key takeaway is to align with institutional flows, but with managed risk, and staggered entries ahead of uncertain events.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，杰克逊霍尔会议并没有改变政策，但将市场转移到了 “降息信念区”。机构首先通过国债行动，股票（特别是以成长股为基础的 ETF）随之而来。对于散户投资者来说，关键的收获是与机构流动保持一致，但要管理风险，并在不确定事件之前分批进入。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Macro Meets Flows: A Rate Strategy Backed by Institutions</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>宏观与流动：机构支持的利率策略</strong></h2>
</div><p><em><strong>Treasury yields as a leading indicator</strong></em> The 10-year yield is the most relevant way to gauge &#34;institutional sentiment&#34;. Note that yields were moving before Powell even spoke. Evidence of anticipatory positioning by pensions, and macro funds. For retail investors, monitoring Treasury yields before Fed events provides a roadmap of where markets might head post-announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>国债收益率作为领先指标</strong></em> 10 年期收益率是衡量 “机构情绪” 的最相关方式。请注意，收益率在鲍威尔发言之前就已经在变化。这是养老金和宏观基金的预期布局的证据。对于散户投资者来说，在美联储事件之前监测国债收益率提供了市场在公告后可能走向的路线图。</p>
</div><p>If yields fall steadily before an event, it signals institutional buying momentum and a higher probability of a growth-stock rally, whereas flat or rebounding yields suggest weaker rate-cut expectations and the risk of a short-term equity correction. A framework that applies not only to bonds but also to equities, FX, and commodities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果收益率在事件之前稳步下降，这表明机构购买势头和成长股反弹的更高概率，而平稳或反弹的收益率则表明降息预期较弱以及短期股票修正的风险。这一框架不仅适用于债券，也适用于股票、外汇和商品。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Institutions increasing exposure to growth stocks</strong></em> In a rate-cut cycle, rate-sensitive sectors such as Big Tech, AI, and semiconductors tend to benefit the most. TradePulse data from August 22 shows institutional inflows into growth-focused ETFs, reflecting strategies designed to balance defensively against upside capture from the institutions. This flow based decision making is something that retail investors can actively monitor and align with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>机构增加对成长股的敞口</strong></em> 在降息周期中，利率敏感的行业如大型科技、人工智能和半导体往往受益最大。8 月 22 日的 TradePulse 数据显示，机构流入以成长为重点的 ETF，反映出旨在防御性平衡机构的上行捕获的策略。这种基于流动的决策是散户投资者可以积极监测和对齐的。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>
</div>

After the Jackson Hole Meeting: What US Treasuries Bonds And Institutional Flows Are Telling Us

- 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上维持利率不变，暗示可能考虑降息。  
- 会议后，10 年期国债收益率从 4.31% 降至 4.25%，显示机构买入预期。  
- 投资者应关注国债收益率变化，以把握市场动向和风险管理。  

杰克逊霍尔会议后：美国国债和机构资金流动透露了哪些信息