<p>美联储正发出对降息采取更谨慎态度的信号，其最新的《褐皮书》显示 “自上次发布以来，经济活动几乎没有变化”。</p>
<p>这一表述降低了市场对 9 月份激进降息 50 个基点的预期，暗示中央银行尚未看到需要采取此类措施的显著经济恶化。</p>
<h2><strong>美联储对经济活动的语气变化</strong></h2>
<p>《熊陷阱报告》的宏观策略师 <strong>克雷格·夏皮罗</strong> 指出，美联储的语气与一年前截然不同，当时在《褐皮书》提到 “经济活动在大多数地区持平或下降” 后，进行了 50 个基点的降息。</p>
<p>在 X 平台上的一篇帖子中，夏皮罗表示：“美联储承认经济活动下降是非常罕见的。”</p>
<p>他认为，目前这种不那么严厉的表述暗示着货币政策将采取 “更慢的降息周期”。</p>
<p>“看起来美联储尚未看到经济恶化到需要在 9 月份再降 50 个基点的程度，” 夏皮罗写道。</p>
<h2><strong>《褐皮书》观察到消费者支出持平或下降</strong></h2>
<p>美联储的报告总结了其 12 个地区的经济状况，描绘出经济停滞的图景。9 月 3 日发布的全国总结发现，大多数地区 “报告经济活动几乎没有变化或没有变化”。</p>
<p>报告强调，对于许多家庭来说，“工资未能跟上物价上涨”，导致消费者支出持平或下降。</p>
<h2><strong>劳动力市场显示降温迹象</strong></h2>
<p>此外，劳动力市场显示出降温迹象，11 个地区描述 “整体就业水平几乎没有净变化”，7 个地区指出由于需求疲软或不确定性，企业对招聘持谨慎态度。</p>
<p>虽然十个地区的价格增长被描述为 “适度或温和”，但对通货膨胀的担忧依然存在，几乎所有地区都提到与关税相关的价格上涨，夏皮罗还观察到，美联储似乎 “对通货膨胀的关注程度比以前更高。”</p>
<h2><strong>经济活动与通货膨胀暗示美联储可能会放慢步伐</strong></h2>
<p>这种停滞的增长与持续的、尽管适度的通货膨胀的结合，支持了美联储采取更渐进方式的理由。</p>
<p>夏皮罗总结道：“所有这些都表明降息周期将比不降息周期更慢。如果经济实际上比这更快地放缓，美联储将会反应迟缓，资产市场将对此不满。”</p>
<h2><strong>价格走势</strong></h2>
<p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ，分别跟踪标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数，周四在盘前交易中上涨。根据 Benzinga Pro 的数据，SPY 上涨 0.15%，报 644.73 美元，而 QQQ 上涨 0.23%，报 571.37 美元。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>美联储基金利率将在 2025 年降至 4% 以下，但策略师对预测表示谨慎：州长们 ‘不比我 7 岁的孩子更懂’</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Tanarch 在 Shutterstock 上</em></p>

<p>美联储在利率削减方面采取谨慎态度，正如其《褐皮书》所示，经济活动变化不大。宏观策略师克雷格·夏皮罗（Craig Shapiro）表示，美联储在九月份不太可能实施显著的 50 个基点的降息，这反映出降息周期的放缓。《褐皮书》强调了消费者支出的停滞和劳动力市场的降温，同时通胀担忧依然存在。总体而言，美联储目前的展望表明其在货币政策调整上将采取渐进的方式</p>

<p>The Federal Reserve is signaling a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with its latest Beige Book indicating that “Economic activity was little changed since last release”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储正发出对降息采取更谨慎态度的信号，其最新的《褐皮书》显示 “自上次发布以来，经济活动几乎没有变化”。</p>
</div><p>This language dampens expectations for an aggressive 50-basis point (bps) cut in September, suggesting the central bank is not yet seeing the significant economic deterioration that would warrant such a move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一表述降低了市场对 9 月份激进降息 50 个基点的预期，暗示中央银行尚未看到需要采取此类措施的显著经济恶化。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Fed Tone On Economic Activity Shifts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美联储对经济活动的语气变化</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Macro Strategist at The Bear Traps Report, <strong>Craig Shapiro</strong>, noted the stark difference in the Fed’s tone compared to a year ago when a 50bps cut followed a Beige Book that said, “economic activity flat or declined in most districts”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《熊陷阱报告》的宏观策略师 <strong>克雷格·夏皮罗</strong> 指出，美联储的语气与一年前截然不同，当时在《褐皮书》提到 “经济活动在大多数地区持平或下降” 后，进行了 50 个基点的降息。</p>
</div><p>In a post on X, Shapiro stated, “It is very rare for the Fed to acknowledge declining economy activity”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 X 平台上的一篇帖子中，夏皮罗表示：“美联储承认经济活动下降是非常罕见的。”</p>
</div><p>He argues that the current, less severe language suggests a “slower rate cutting cycle” for easing monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他认为，目前这种不那么严厉的表述暗示着货币政策将采取 “更慢的降息周期”。</p>
</div><p>“It doesn’t appear that the Fed is yet seeing such a deterioration in the economy to warrant another 50bps cut in September,” Shapiro wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“看起来美联储尚未看到经济恶化到需要在 9 月份再降 50 个基点的程度，” 夏皮罗写道。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Beige Books Observes Flat To Declining Consumer Spending</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>《褐皮书》观察到消费者支出持平或下降</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve’s report, a summary of economic conditions across its 12 districts, paints a picture of a stalled economy. The national summary released on Sept. 3, found that most districts “reported little or no change in economic activity”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的报告总结了其 12 个地区的经济状况，描绘出经济停滞的图景。9 月 3 日发布的全国总结发现，大多数地区 “报告经济活动几乎没有变化或没有变化”。</p>
</div><p>The report highlighted that for many households, “wages were failing to keep up with rising prices,” leading to flat or declining consumer spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告强调，对于许多家庭来说，“工资未能跟上物价上涨”，导致消费者支出持平或下降。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Labor Market Shows Signs Of Cooling</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>劳动力市场显示降温迹象</strong></h2>
</div><p>Furthermore, the labor market shows signs of cooling, with eleven districts describing “little or no net change in overall employment levels” and seven noting that firms were hesitant to hire due to weaker demand or uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，劳动力市场显示出降温迹象，11 个地区描述 “整体就业水平几乎没有净变化”，7 个地区指出由于需求疲软或不确定性，企业对招聘持谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>While price growth was characterized as “moderate or modest” in ten districts, concerns about inflation persist, with nearly all districts noting tariff-related price increases, Shapiro also observed that the Fed seems “to be more concerned about inflation today than they were back then.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然十个地区的价格增长被描述为 “适度或温和”，但对通货膨胀的担忧依然存在，几乎所有地区都提到与关税相关的价格上涨，夏皮罗还观察到，美联储似乎 “对通货膨胀的关注程度比以前更高。”</p>
</div><h2><strong>Economic Activity And Inflation Suggest Fed Could Be Slow</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>经济活动与通货膨胀暗示美联储可能会放慢步伐</strong></h2>
</div><p>This combination of stagnant growth and persistent, albeit moderate, inflation supports the case for a more gradual approach from the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种停滞的增长与持续的、尽管适度的通货膨胀的结合，支持了美联储采取更渐进方式的理由。</p>
</div><p>Shapiro concluded, “All of this argues for slower rate cutting cycle than not. If the economy is actually slowing more rapidly than this, the Fed will be slow and late and risk asset markets will not like it”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>夏皮罗总结道：“所有这些都表明降息周期将比不降息周期更慢。如果经济实际上比这更快地放缓，美联储将会反应迟缓，资产市场将对此不满。”</p>
</div><h2><strong>Price Action</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>价格走势</strong></h2>
</div><p>The <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY and <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ, which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.15% at $644.73, while the QQQ advanced 0.23% to $571.37, according to Benzinga Pro data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ，分别跟踪标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数，周四在盘前交易中上涨。根据 Benzinga Pro 的数据，SPY 上涨 0.15%，报 644.73 美元，而 QQQ 上涨 0.23%，报 571.37 美元。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Fed Funds Rate To Fall Below 4% In 2025, But Strategist Urges Caution On Predictions: Govs ‘Don't Know Any Better Than My 7-Year-Old'</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>美联储基金利率将在 2025 年降至 4% 以下，但策略师对预测表示谨慎：州长们 ‘不比我 7 岁的孩子更懂’</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong> <em>This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Photo Courtesy: Tanarch on Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Tanarch 在 Shutterstock 上</em></p>
</div>

Federal Reserve To Follow 'Slower Rate Cutting Cycle' Despite Trump's Pressure As Beige Book Dampens Sentiment: Don't Expect 50 Bps Cut Hints Shapiro

- 美联储对利率削减采取更谨慎的态度，最新的 Beige Book 显示经济活动变化不大。  
- 报告指出，许多家庭的工资未能跟上物价上涨，导致消费支出持平或下降。  
- 劳动力市场显示降温迹象，企业因需求疲软而犹豫招聘。  

尽管特朗普施压，美联储将遵循 “较慢的降息周期”，因为褐皮书抑制了市场情绪：Shapiro 暗示不要期待降息 50 个基点