<p>没有哪家公司比半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -2.96%) 更加受益于人工智能（AI）热潮。如果你在 ChatGPT 发布的那天（2022 年 11 月 30 日）投资了这家芯片制造商并持有至今，你的投资价值今天大约是原来的 10 倍。</p>
<p>在过去几年中，包括 <strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Oracle</strong> 在内的科技巨头们在其与 AI 相关的基础设施上投入了数千亿美元的资本支出，其中相当大的一部分用于为数据中心配备 Nvidia 的行业领先芯片。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bd78e470f0dfd9efb64faf6d11552a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="507" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bd78e470f0dfd9efb64faf6d11552a.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>这种前所未有的需求使得 Nvidia 的市值从 AI 革命初期的约 3450 亿美元飙升至今天的超过 4 万亿美元。</p>
<p>在如此巨大的涨幅之后，自然会有人想知道 Nvidia 股票的最佳时光是否已经过去。毕竟，一只飙升至如此高度的股票怎么可能继续上涨呢？</p>
<p>然而，就在怀疑者开始呼吁见顶之际，Nvidia 的管理层已采取措施，通过 600 亿美元的承诺来支持股票的走势。</p>
<p>对我来说，问题不在于 Nvidia 是否已经达到顶峰，而在于这个全球最有价值的公司是否才刚刚起步。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票是否被高估？</h2>
<p>Nvidia 的交易价格与其三年平均市销率（P/S）相符，且显著低于其在 AI 热潮初期达到的峰值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/436d185b36a7ec5d8349da56972946f7.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/436d185b36a7ec5d8349da56972946f7.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>因此，与之前 AI 狂热时期的水平相比，Nvidia 股票可能看起来 “便宜”。不过，这种所谓的折扣是相对的。在 1990 年代末的互联网泡沫期间，许多高飞股票的市销率达到了 30 到 40 的倍数。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57526aa3171d109e9bf38cf507ae57b9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57526aa3171d109e9bf38cf507ae57b9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE 比率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>乍一看，Nvidia 的市盈率（P/E）倍数似乎与其历史平均水平和过去几年的峰值相比大幅折扣。需要指出的细微差别是，AI 趋势导致了 Nvidia 盈利能力的爆炸性增长。这意味着其市盈率中的分母（收益）大幅扩大。换句话说，Nvidia 当前的市盈率为 49 反映的是正常化的盈利能力，而不是投资者突然以较低的增长倍数来评估公司。</p>
<p>从绝对角度来看，Nvidia 的估值要求较高。但对于那些试图判断股票是否真的被高估的投资者来说，管理层的最新公告可能提供了一些见解。</p>
<h2>600 亿（更多）理由关注 Nvidia</h2>
<p>在今年上半年，Nvidia 回购了 1.93 亿股普通股，花费了 242 亿美元。此外，在 8 月底的第二季度财报电话会议上，管理层公布了一个更引人注目的举措：董事会批准了额外的 600 亿美元股票回购计划。</p>
<p>这样的回购通常被解读为信心的投票。它们通常表明管理层相信公司的现金流是可持续的，并且回购自家股票是资本的最佳使用之一。但在 Nvidia 的情况下，可能还有更具战略性的层面在发挥作用。</p>
<p>在过去几年中，Nvidia 的增长叙事主要基于其芯片用于训练大型语言模型（LLMs）和其他生成性 AI 工具。然而，展望未来，真正的上行空间将来自于它们在更先进应用中的使用，如机器人技术、量子计算和自主系统——每一个都代表着潜在的万亿市场。这些应用场景将需要更多的计算能力，这可能意味着 Nvidia 的下一代芯片架构。</p>
<p>虽然公司继 Blackwell 之后的继任者 Rubin 预计将在明年发货，但 Nvidia 下一次大规模反弹的关键在于时机。</p>
<p>在这些新的复杂应用场景推动足够的销售以实质性改变 Nvidia 盈利能力的情况下，可能需要五到十年。在此期间，公司的增长可能会继续——尽管速度较慢。</p>
<p>这就是为什么新的股票回购计划显得特别聪明。通过在未来几年内积极减少流通股数量，Nvidia 可以在 AI 叙事的过渡阶段增强每股收益（EPS）的增长。实际上，新的回购计划充当了一座桥梁——在 AI 时代的基础设施浪潮在后台扩展的同时，保持 EPS 动能在短期内强劲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1ODkwNjcwMi00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1ODkwNjcwMi00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>总的来说，Nvidia 处于一个有利的位置，可以从超大规模企业的 AI 基础设施支出中获得丰厚收益。同时，公司通过股票回购返还资本的能力突显了其现金生成的强劲、管理层对回报股东的承诺，以及公司认为其股票仍然适当定价的观点。</p>
<p>综合来看，这些动态强调了我为何将 Nvidia 视为一个引人注目的买入和持有机会。随着结构性增长驱动因素和以股东为中心的资本配置在其战略路线图的前沿，Nvidia 股票在 AI 领域仍然是一个不容错过的机会。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>由于人工智能的繁荣，英伟达的市值从 3450 亿美元飙升至超过 4 万亿美元，科技巨头对其芯片进行了大量投资。尽管市场对高估值存在担忧，英伟达的股票以 49 的正常市盈率交易，反映出强劲的盈利增长。该公司宣布了一项 600 亿美元的股票回购计划，表明对可持续现金流的信心，并旨在在过渡阶段提升每股收益增长。英伟达在持续的人工智能基础设施支出中处于有利位置，未来的增长预计将来自机器人技术和量子计算等先进应用</p>

<p>No company has benefited more from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom than semiconductor powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -2.96%). If you had invested in the chipmaker on the day that ChatGPT launched (Nov. 30, 2022) and held on, your stake today would be worth roughly 10 times as much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有哪家公司比半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -2.96%) 更加受益于人工智能（AI）热潮。如果你在 ChatGPT 发布的那天（2022 年 11 月 30 日）投资了这家芯片制造商并持有至今，你的投资价值今天大约是原来的 10 倍。</p>
</div><p>Over the last few years, tech giants including <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Oracle</strong> have poured hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures into their AI-related infrastructure -- a significant fraction of which has gone toward equipping data centers with Nvidia's industry-leading chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，包括 <strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Oracle</strong> 在内的科技巨头们在其与 AI 相关的基础设施上投入了数千亿美元的资本支出，其中相当大的一部分用于为数据中心配备 Nvidia 的行业领先芯片。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bd78e470f0dfd9efb64faf6d11552a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bd78e470f0dfd9efb64faf6d11552a.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>This unprecedented demand has propelled Nvidia's market value from about $345 billion at the dawn of the AI revolution to more than $4 trillion today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种前所未有的需求使得 Nvidia 的市值从 AI 革命初期的约 3450 亿美元飙升至今天的超过 4 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>After gains of this magnitude, it's natural to wonder if the best days for Nvidia stock are already in the rear-view mirror. After all, how could a stock that has skyrocketed to such a height keep climbing?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此巨大的涨幅之后，自然会有人想知道 Nvidia 股票的最佳时光是否已经过去。毕竟，一只飙升至如此高度的股票怎么可能继续上涨呢？</p>
</div><p>Yet just as skeptics are beginning to call a top, Nvidia's management has moved to support the stock's trajectory with a $60 billion commitment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，就在怀疑者开始呼吁见顶之际，Nvidia 的管理层已采取措施，通过 600 亿美元的承诺来支持股票的走势。</p>
</div><p>To me, the question isn't whether Nvidia has peaked, but whether the world's most valuable company is just getting started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对我来说，问题不在于 Nvidia 是否已经达到顶峰，而在于这个全球最有价值的公司是否才刚刚起步。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock overvalued?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票是否被高估？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia is trading in line with its three-year average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio and significantly below the peak it hit during the early days of the AI boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的交易价格与其三年平均市销率（P/S）相符，且显著低于其在 AI 热潮初期达到的峰值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/436d185b36a7ec5d8349da56972946f7.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/436d185b36a7ec5d8349da56972946f7.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>So Nvidia stock may appear &#34;cheap&#34; compared to where it stood during prior periods of AI euphoria. That said, the so-called discount is relative. During the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, many high-flying stocks peaked at P/S multiples in the 30 to 40 range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，与之前 AI 狂热时期的水平相比，Nvidia 股票可能看起来 “便宜”。不过，这种所谓的折扣是相对的。在 1990 年代末的互联网泡沫期间，许多高飞股票的市销率达到了 30 到 40 的倍数。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57526aa3171d109e9bf38cf507ae57b9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57526aa3171d109e9bf38cf507ae57b9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PE 比率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>At first glance, Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple looks deeply discounted to both its historical average and its peak levels over the last few years. The nuance to point out here is that the AI trend has led to explosive growth in Nvidia's profitability. This means that the denominator in its P/E ratio (earnings) has expanded dramatically. In other words, Nvidia's current P/E of 49 reflects normalized profitability rather than investors suddenly valuing the company at a less aggressive growth multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，Nvidia 的市盈率（P/E）倍数似乎与其历史平均水平和过去几年的峰值相比大幅折扣。需要指出的细微差别是，AI 趋势导致了 Nvidia 盈利能力的爆炸性增长。这意味着其市盈率中的分母（收益）大幅扩大。换句话说，Nvidia 当前的市盈率为 49 反映的是正常化的盈利能力，而不是投资者突然以较低的增长倍数来评估公司。</p>
</div><p>On an absolute basis, Nvidia's valuation is demanding. But for investors who are trying to determine whether the shares are truly overvalued, management's latest announcement may offer some insight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从绝对角度来看，Nvidia 的估值要求较高。但对于那些试图判断股票是否真的被高估的投资者来说，管理层的最新公告可能提供了一些见解。</p>
</div><h2>60 billion (more) reasons to pay attention to Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>600 亿（更多）理由关注 Nvidia</h2>
</div><p>During the first half of the year, Nvidia repurchased 193 million shares of its common stock for $24.2 billion. Moreover, on its second-quarter earnings call in late August, management unveiled an even more striking move: The board of directors approved an additional $60 billion stock buyback program.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年上半年，Nvidia 回购了 1.93 亿股普通股，花费了 242 亿美元。此外，在 8 月底的第二季度财报电话会议上，管理层公布了一个更引人注目的举措：董事会批准了额外的 600 亿美元股票回购计划。</p>
</div><p>Such buybacks are often interpreted as a vote of confidence. They typically signal that management believes that a company's cash flows are sustainable and that repurchasing its own stock is one of the best uses of capital. But in Nvidia's case, there may be a more strategic layer at play here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样的回购通常被解读为信心的投票。它们通常表明管理层相信公司的现金流是可持续的，并且回购自家股票是资本的最佳使用之一。但在 Nvidia 的情况下，可能还有更具战略性的层面在发挥作用。</p>
</div><p>For much of the last few years, Nvidia's growth narrative has been anchored on its chips being used for the training of large language models (LLMs) and other generative AI tools. Looking ahead, however, the real upside will stem from their use in more advanced applications, such as robotics, quantum computing, and autonomous systems -- each of which represents a potential trillion-dollar market. These use cases will require more computing power, which will likely mean next-generation chip architectures from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，Nvidia 的增长叙事主要基于其芯片用于训练大型语言模型（LLMs）和其他生成性 AI 工具。然而，展望未来，真正的上行空间将来自于它们在更先进应用中的使用，如机器人技术、量子计算和自主系统——每一个都代表着潜在的万亿市场。这些应用场景将需要更多的计算能力，这可能意味着 Nvidia 的下一代芯片架构。</p>
</div><p>While the company's successor to Blackwell, dubbed Rubin, is expected to ship next year, the catch with Nvidia's next massive rally will come down to timing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然公司继 Blackwell 之后的继任者 Rubin 预计将在明年发货，但 Nvidia 下一次大规模反弹的关键在于时机。</p>
</div><p>It could be five to 10 years before these new, sophisticated use cases are driving enough sales to materially transform Nvidia's profitability profile. In the interim, the company's growth will likely continue -- albeit at a slower pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些新的复杂应用场景推动足够的销售以实质性改变 Nvidia 盈利能力的情况下，可能需要五到十年。在此期间，公司的增长可能会继续——尽管速度较慢。</p>
</div><p>This is why the new stock buyback program looks particularly savvy. By aggressively reducing its outstanding share count over the next few years, Nvidia can bolster its earnings per share (EPS) growth during this transitional phase of the AI narrative. In effect, the new buyback program acts as a bridge -- keeping EPS momentum robust in the near term while the infrastructure wave of the AI era scales up in the background.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么新的股票回购计划显得特别聪明。通过在未来几年内积极减少流通股数量，Nvidia 可以在 AI 叙事的过渡阶段增强每股收益（EPS）的增长。实际上，新的回购计划充当了一座桥梁——在 AI 时代的基础设施浪潮在后台扩展的同时，保持 EPS 动能在短期内强劲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1ODkwNjcwMi00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831812%2Fgettyimages-1158906702-4.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>All told, Nvidia is positioned to benefit handsomely from the secular tailwinds of AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers. At the same time, the company's ability to return capital through stock buybacks highlights the strength of its cash generation, management's commitment to rewarding shareholders, and the company's view that its stock remains appropriately priced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，Nvidia 处于一个有利的位置，可以从超大规模企业的 AI 基础设施支出中获得丰厚收益。同时，公司通过股票回购返还资本的能力突显了其现金生成的强劲、管理层对回报股东的承诺，以及公司认为其股票仍然适当定价的观点。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, these dynamics underscore why I see Nvidia as a compelling opportunity to buy and hold. With structural growth drivers and shareholder-friendly capital allocation at the forefront of its strategic roadmap, the stock remains a no-brainer opportunity in the AI realm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，这些动态强调了我为何将 Nvidia 视为一个引人注目的买入和持有机会。随着结构性增长驱动因素和以股东为中心的资本配置在其战略路线图的前沿，Nvidia 股票在 AI 领域仍然是一个不容错过的机会。</p>
</div>

Think Nvidia Stock Is Too Expensive? Here Are 60 Billion Reasons to Consider Changing Your Mind

- 英伟达因人工智能热潮市值从 3450 亿美元增至 4 万亿美元。  
- 公司宣布 600 亿美元股票回购计划，显示管理层对未来增长的信心。  
- 英伟达在 AI 基础设施支出中受益，未来增长潜力巨大。  

觉得英伟达的股票价格过高？这里有 600 亿个理由让你重新考虑