<p>（重复周五首次发布的故事）</p>
<p>投资者预计本月美联储会议上有可能降息半个百分点</p>
<p>美国 8 月份就业增长远低于预期</p>
<p>报告发布后股市波动，美元下滑</p>
<p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf 和 Davide Barbuscia</p>
<p>纽约，9 月 5 日（路透社）——在一份意外疲软的美国就业报告显示经济放缓后，投资者认为需要加快货币宽松，包括本月降息的可能性增加。在周五的就业报告发布之前，投资者已经普遍预计美联储将在 9 月 16 日至 17 日的会议上将基准利率下调 25 个基点，这是九个月以来的首次降息。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上个月的讲话为这样的降息奠定了基础，指出了劳动力市场的风险。</p>
<p>但在数据显示美国 8 月份新增就业岗位仅为 22,000 个，远低于预期后，市场定价开始为可能的更大幅度的降息（半个百分点）留出空间，同时预计整体宽松将持续到 2025 年。</p>
<p>“这是连续两份令人失望的就业报告，确实表明经济正在减弱，” Cresset Capital 的创始合伙人兼首席投资官 Jack Ablin 表示。“如果将此与鲍威尔主席偏向于充分就业而非价格稳定的立场结合起来，这确实暗示美联储可能会采取比最初计划更大的行动。”</p>
<p>近期低利率的前景一直支撑着股市，但在周五的报告发布后，股市出现波动。数据发布后，股指期货最初上涨，随后转为下跌。基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）最后下跌 0.5%。</p>
<p>“如果投资者关注美联储的政策削减，那么这可能会支持股市，” Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投资官 Jim Baird 表示。</p>
<p>“如果投资者将其视为劳动力状况和失业率进一步恶化的前兆，可能会导致经济进一步放缓，那对股市来说就不是好消息。”</p>
<p>投资者纷纷涌入美国国债，导致短期和长期收益率均下滑。基准美国 10 年期国债收益率降至 4.06%，为约五个月来的最低水平。同时，在外汇市场上，加速降息的前景使美元指数（.DXY）跌至近六周低点。</p>
<p>“我们发现 G10 外汇市场的前端名义收益率正在交易。这就是为什么在就业数据低于预期后，美元下跌，” 宏观研究和战略公司 Macro Hive 的研究员 Benjamin Ford 表示。</p>
<p>截至周五下午，美联储基金期货显示本月降息 50 个基点的概率为 10%，而降息 25 个基点的概率为 90%，根据 LSEG 的数据。</p>
<p>当美联储在 2024 年 9 月开始降息周期时，中央银行以半个百分点的降息开始，US Bank 的投资级销售和交易负责人 Blair Shwedo 指出。</p>
<p>“所以我想市场正在回顾这一点，并意识到美联储并不害怕以更激进的 50 个基点降息开始，” Shwedo 说。</p>
<p>Siebert Financial 的首席投资官 Mark Malek 表示，50 个基点的降息 “将为（股市）提供顺风”。</p>
<p>“这无疑会对大型成长股形成提振，并为投资者承担更多风险提供绿灯，” Malek 表示。</p>
<p>50 个基点的降息可能导致国债曲线前端的空头头寸 “投降”，这可能加剧债市的波动，Crown Agents Investment Management 的固定收益负责人 Slawomir Soroczynski 表示。更激进的宽松前景也可能进一步加剧对通胀的担忧。目前的通胀率仍高于美联储 2% 的目标，鲍威尔和其他美联储官员一直担心特朗普总统的关税可能导致价格上涨。</p>
<p>“鲍威尔的担忧是，关税的不确定性仍然存在，他知道从通胀的角度来看，风险情绪的上升肯定会推动资产价格通胀，” Penn Mutual Asset Management 的投资组合经理 George Cipolloni 表示。“现在这是否会推动消费者价格通胀？这就是拉锯战。”</p>
<p>并不是所有人都相信在就业数据发布后会有大幅降息。8 月份是一个 “嘈杂的月份”，数据往往会被向上修正，Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management 的首席执行官 Phil Blancato 表示。</p>
<p>在美联储会议之前，还会有更多数据发布，特别是下周四的 8 月份消费者物价指数报告，将提供关于通胀趋势的另一个解读。</p>
<p>“通胀仍然是一个主要问题，并未因经济增长放缓而得到遏制，” Simcorp 的投资决策研究董事总经理 Melissa Brown 表示。</p>
<p>即时观点：美国 8 月份就业增长急剧放缓，失业率小幅上升 这里</p>

<p>投资者预计在一份疲弱的就业报告发布后，美国将采取更激进的降息措施，该报告显示 8 月份仅新增 22,000 个就业岗位。这增加了美联储即将召开的会议上降息半个百分点的可能性。尽管降息前景支撑了股票市场，但市场反应却喜忧参半，标准普尔 500 指数下跌了 0.5%。由于投资者转向美国国债，美元指数也跌至近六周低点。关于通胀的担忧依然存在，给美联储的决策过程带来了复杂性</p>

<p>(Repeats story first published on Friday)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（重复周五首次发布的故事）</p>
</div><p>Investors anticipate chance of half-point cut at Fed meeting later in month</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者预计本月美联储会议上有可能降息半个百分点</p>
</div><p>US job growth in August comes in much weaker than expected</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国 8 月份就业增长远低于预期</p>
</div><p>Stocks waver after report, dollar slides</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告发布后股市波动，美元下滑</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf and Davide Barbuscia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf 和 Davide Barbuscia</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - After a surprisingly weak U.S. payrolls report that underscored that the economy is slowing, investors see the need for accelerated monetary easing, including an increased chance of a jumbo interest rate cut this month. Heading into Friday’s employment report, investors were already widely projecting the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate by a standard quarter-point at its September 16-17 meeting, in what would be its first reduction in nine months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had set the stage for such a cut in remarks last month that pointed to risks in the labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，9 月 5 日（路透社）——在一份意外疲软的美国就业报告显示经济放缓后，投资者认为需要加快货币宽松，包括本月降息的可能性增加。在周五的就业报告发布之前，投资者已经普遍预计美联储将在 9 月 16 日至 17 日的会议上将基准利率下调 25 个基点，这是九个月以来的首次降息。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上个月的讲话为这样的降息奠定了基础，指出了劳动力市场的风险。</p>
</div><p>But after data showed U.S. jobs grew by a paltry 22,000 in August, well below estimates, market pricing began making room for the possibility of a heftier half-percentage-point reduction, while more easing is now expected through 2025 overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在数据显示美国 8 月份新增就业岗位仅为 22,000 个，远低于预期后，市场定价开始为可能的更大幅度的降息（半个百分点）留出空间，同时预计整体宽松将持续到 2025 年。</p>
</div><p>“This is two disappointing jobs reports in a row and certainly makes the case for a weakening economy,” said Jack Ablin, founding partner and chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. “If you combine that with Chairman Powell’s bias toward full employment rather than price stability, it does suggest that the Fed could go more than originally planned.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是连续两份令人失望的就业报告，确实表明经济正在减弱，” Cresset Capital 的创始合伙人兼首席投资官 Jack Ablin 表示。“如果将此与鲍威尔主席偏向于充分就业而非价格稳定的立场结合起来，这确实暗示美联储可能会采取比最初计划更大的行动。”</p>
</div><p>The prospect of lower interest rates has been a support for stocks in recent weeks but equities wavered after Friday’s report. Stock futures jumped initially after the data, before reversing course. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) was last down 0.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期低利率的前景一直支撑着股市，但在周五的报告发布后，股市出现波动。数据发布后，股指期货最初上涨，随后转为下跌。基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）最后下跌 0.5%。</p>
</div><p>“If investors are focused on Fed policy cuts, then that could be supportive of the stock market,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果投资者关注美联储的政策削减，那么这可能会支持股市，” Plante Moran Financial Advisors 的首席投资官 Jim Baird 表示。</p>
</div><p>“If investors are instead looking at it as a precursor to further slippage in labor conditions and job losses and perhaps an economy that softens up further from here, that’s not good news for stocks.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果投资者将其视为劳动力状况和失业率进一步恶化的前兆，可能会导致经济进一步放缓，那对股市来说就不是好消息。”</p>
</div><p>Investors piled in to U.S. Treasuries, sending both short and long-term yields lower. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 4.06%, its lowest in about five months. Meanwhile, in foreign exchange markets, the prospect of accelerated rate cuts sank the dollar index (.DXY) to a near six-week low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者纷纷涌入美国国债，导致短期和长期收益率均下滑。基准美国 10 年期国债收益率降至 4.06%，为约五个月来的最低水平。同时，在外汇市场上，加速降息的前景使美元指数（.DXY）跌至近六周低点。</p>
</div><p>“We find G10 FX is trading with front-end nominal yields. That’s why the dollar dropped after weaker-than-expected payrolls,” said Benjamin Ford, researcher at macro research and strategy firm Macro Hive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们发现 G10 外汇市场的前端名义收益率正在交易。这就是为什么在就业数据低于预期后，美元下跌，” 宏观研究和战略公司 Macro Hive 的研究员 Benjamin Ford 表示。</p>
</div><p>Fed fund futures as of Friday afternoon were baking in a 10% chance of a 50 basis-point reduction later this month, with the 90% balance of probability on a 25 bp cut, according to LSEG data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至周五下午，美联储基金期货显示本月降息 50 个基点的概率为 10%，而降息 25 个基点的概率为 90%，根据 LSEG 的数据。</p>
</div><p>When the Fed started its cutting cycle in September 2024, the central bank began with a half-percentage-point reduction, noted Blair Shwedo, head of investment grade sales and trading at US Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当美联储在 2024 年 9 月开始降息周期时，中央银行以半个百分点的降息开始，US Bank 的投资级销售和交易负责人 Blair Shwedo 指出。</p>
</div><p>“So I would imagine the market is looking back at that and realizing the Fed is not scared to start out with a more aggressive 50 bp cut,” Shwedo said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“所以我想市场正在回顾这一点，并意识到美联储并不害怕以更激进的 50 个基点降息开始，” Shwedo 说。</p>
</div><p>Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, said a 50 basis-point move “would add a tailwind to the (stock) market.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Siebert Financial 的首席投资官 Mark Malek 表示，50 个基点的降息 “将为（股市）提供顺风”。</p>
</div><p>“It would definitely be a boost for the megacap growth stocks, and a green light for investors to take on more risk,” Malek said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这无疑会对大型成长股形成提振，并为投资者承担更多风险提供绿灯，” Malek 表示。</p>
</div><p>A 50 basis-point cut could lead to the “capitulation” of short bets for the front-end part of the Treasury curve, which may exacerbate volatility in the bond market, said Slawomir Soroczynski, head of fixed income at Crown Agents Investment Management. The prospect of more aggressive easing could also further raise fears about inflation. Current inflation rates are still above the Fed’s 2% target and Powell and other Fed officials have been wary that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could lead to higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50 个基点的降息可能导致国债曲线前端的空头头寸 “投降”，这可能加剧债市的波动，Crown Agents Investment Management 的固定收益负责人 Slawomir Soroczynski 表示。更激进的宽松前景也可能进一步加剧对通胀的担忧。目前的通胀率仍高于美联储 2% 的目标，鲍威尔和其他美联储官员一直担心特朗普总统的关税可能导致价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>“Powell’s concern is there’s still tariff uncertainty, and he knows that from an inflation standpoint the increase in risk sentiment will certainly spur asset price inflation,” said George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. “Now will it spur consumer price inflation? That’s the tug of war.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“鲍威尔的担忧是，关税的不确定性仍然存在，他知道从通胀的角度来看，风险情绪的上升肯定会推动资产价格通胀，” Penn Mutual Asset Management 的投资组合经理 George Cipolloni 表示。“现在这是否会推动消费者价格通胀？这就是拉锯战。”</p>
</div><p>Not everyone was convinced a hefty cut was coming after the jobs data. August is a “noisy month” with figures that tend to get revised higher, said Phil Blancato, chief executive officer of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>并不是所有人都相信在就业数据发布后会有大幅降息。8 月份是一个 “嘈杂的月份”，数据往往会被向上修正，Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management 的首席执行官 Phil Blancato 表示。</p>
</div><p>And more data will come ahead of the Fed meeting, in particular next Thursday’s August Consumer Price Index report that offers another read on inflation trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储会议之前，还会有更多数据发布，特别是下周四的 8 月份消费者物价指数报告，将提供关于通胀趋势的另一个解读。</p>
</div><p>“Inflation is still a major concern and is not being tamed by the slower economic growth,” said Melissa Brown, managing director of investment decision research at Simcorp.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通胀仍然是一个主要问题，并未因经济增长放缓而得到遏制，” Simcorp 的投资决策研究董事总经理 Melissa Brown 表示。</p>
</div><p>Instant view: US job growth slows sharply in August, unemployment rate ticks higher here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即时观点：美国 8 月份就业增长急剧放缓，失业率小幅上升 这里</p>
</div>

Investors look for more aggressive US rate cuts after weak jobs data

- 美国 8 月就业增长远低于预期，仅增加 22,000 个职位。  
- 投资者预计美联储本月可能进行 50 个基点的降息。  
- 降息预期导致美元指数下滑至近六周低点。  

在疲软的就业数据公布后，投资者希望美国采取更激进的降息措施