<p>美联储在通胀持续高企的情况下减弱鸽派倾向</p>
<p>投资者在滞胀威胁下对风险资产保持谨慎</p>
<p>市场对自去年 12 月以来首次降息的反应平淡</p>
<p>美联储内部的分歧预计将增加市场波动性</p>
<p>作者：Davide Barbuscia 和 Suzanne McGee</p>
<p>纽约，9 月 18 日（路透社）- 随着美联储恢复降息并为进一步宽松打开大门，但又以通胀高企的警告来减弱其信息，投资者似乎将面临未来几个月的波动局面，这让未来政策调整的速度充满疑虑。</p>
<p>一些投资者现在对快速降低借贷成本的实现不再那么确定，这可能会抑制对股票和债券因政策宽松而获得强劲提振的乐观情绪。美联储内部对未来利率路径的多种观点进一步增加了不确定性。</p>
<p>“我们在这里有一种相对谨慎的、并不完全防御性的看法，” 富兰克林邓普顿投资公司全球投资策略师 Larry Hatheway 表示，这种看法 “得到了美联储信息的强化”。</p>
<p>Hatheway 补充说，市场上许多人可能会对美联储缺乏清晰和方向感感到略微失望，因为美联储没有明确支持市场对一系列降息的预期，而是强调了逐次会议、依赖数据的方法。</p>
<p>在周三的会议上，美联储将政策利率下调 25 个基点至 4%-4.25% 的区间，这是自去年 12 月以来的首次降息，并表示将逐步放宽政策，以应对日益严重的劳动力市场担忧。同时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调了政策制定者面临的 “挑战性局面”，指出通胀风险偏向上行，失业风险偏向下行。</p>
<p>尽管最近数据显示 8 月份失业率攀升至 4.3% 且就业人数增长远低于预期，但这些评论仍然抑制了市场的乐观情绪。对截至 3 月的基准就业数据的急剧下调也进一步加重了劳动力市场失去动力的观点，增强了未来多次降息的理由。</p>
<p>美联储在周三发布的更新季度经济预测中，包括在被称为 “点阵图” 的图表中发布的利率预测，与 6 月份会议的 “点” 相比，反映出对今年更多宽松的预期，预计在年底前将有 50 个基点的降息。</p>
<p>与此同时，美联储的预测仍然预计今年年底通胀将达到 3%，远高于美联储 2% 的目标，而其对经济增长的预测略微上调至 1.6%，而 6 月份为 1.4%。</p>
<p>“市场可能会欢迎宽松的倾向，但信息仍然是微妙的，远未完全转向，” Janus Henderson Investors 的全球短期流动性负责人兼投资组合经理 Dan Siluk 表示。</p>
<p>纳斯达克和标准普尔 500 指数在会议前接近历史高点，但在周三的波动交易中收盘下跌。</p>
<p>国债收益率与债券价格呈反向关系，上涨，2 年期收益率当天上涨 4 个基点至 3.55%，基准 10 年期收益率上涨约 7 个基点至 4.09%。收益率曲线在最近几周趋于平坦，长期和短期收益率之间的差距因降息预期而缩小。</p>
<p>“美联储处于一个困难的境地，” Brandywine Global Investment Management 的投资组合经理 Jack McIntyre 表示。“他们预期滞胀，或者说更高的通胀和疲弱的劳动力市场。这对金融资产来说并不是一个良好的环境。”</p>
<p>滞胀风险依然存在，美国消费者价格在 8 月份因住房和食品成本上升而上涨，这是七个月以来的最大涨幅，导致通胀年同比增幅达到自 1 月份以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>加上劳动力市场条件的软化，更高的通胀引发了对滞胀的担忧——这是一种令人担忧的经济增长缓慢和高通胀的组合，这在 1970 年代困扰着美国，可能会使美联储在大幅降息以支持就业市场时面临困难。</p>
<p>“这远不是 1970 年代的滞胀，但在边际上支持了对股票和债券回报的更保守展望，” Angeles Investments 的首席投资官 Michael Rosen 表示。</p>
<p>美联储周三的宽松转变也在特朗普总统政府对美联储施加持续压力以降息后受到审视。</p>
<p>特朗普提名的经济顾问 Stephen Miran 于周二宣誓就职美联储理事会，并对美联储的 25 个基点降息决定表示唯一异议，主张应进行更大幅度的 50 个基点降息。</p>
<p>市场还需应对美联储的 “点阵图”，显示出广泛的预测，其中一位参与者预计年末利率为 4.4%，高于新的 4.00%-4.25% 区间。另一方面，一位政策制定者将年末政策利率下调至 2.9%。</p>
<p>“我认为市场在消化他们获得的所有信息时遇到了困难。显然，这并没有给任何人提供清晰的视野，” Vanguard 的高级美国经济学家 Josh Hirt 表示。</p>
<p>“委员会成员之间存在如此大的分歧，导致不确定性加大，” Hirt 补充道，增加的不同交叉潮流 “可能导致更大的波动性。”</p>
<p>政策制定者预计将如何引导利率</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4mjztuw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="640" height="912" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4mjztuw"/></p>

标普 500 指数

<p>美联储最近的降息使投资者保持谨慎，因为通胀仍然是一个问题。美联储将利率下调了 25 个基点，至 4%-4.25% 的区间，但由于通胀持续高企以及美联储内部意见不一，降低未来降息的预期。市场反应平淡，纳斯达克和标准普尔 500 指数收盘下跌。对滞胀的担忧依然存在， complicating the Fed's ability to support the labor market. 美联储的预测显示出逐步放松的周期，但关于未来政策调整的速度仍然存在不确定性</p>

<p>Fed tempers dovish tilt as inflation remains sticky</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在通胀持续高企的情况下减弱鸽派倾向</p>
</div><p>Investors cautious on risk assets amid stagflation threat</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在滞胀威胁下对风险资产保持谨慎</p>
</div><p>Market reaction muted to first rate cut since December</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对自去年 12 月以来首次降息的反应平淡</p>
</div><p>Disagreement within Fed expected to add to volatility</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储内部的分歧预计将增加市场波动性</p>
</div><p>By Davide Barbuscia and Suzanne McGee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Davide Barbuscia 和 Suzanne McGee</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Investors look set to face a volatile few months ahead after the Federal Reserve resumed interest rate cuts and opened the door to further easing but tempered its message with warnings of sticky inflation, sowing doubt over the pace of future policy adjustments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，9 月 18 日（路透社）- 随着美联储恢复降息并为进一步宽松打开大门，但又以通胀高企的警告来减弱其信息，投资者似乎将面临未来几个月的波动局面，这让未来政策调整的速度充满疑虑。</p>
</div><p>Some investors are now less certain that a rapid shift to lower borrowing costs will materialize, potentially dampening optimism that stocks and bonds would get a strong lift from easier policy. Adding to the uncertainty was a wide variety of views within the Fed on the future path of rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者现在对快速降低借贷成本的实现不再那么确定，这可能会抑制对股票和债券因政策宽松而获得强劲提振的乐观情绪。美联储内部对未来利率路径的多种观点进一步增加了不确定性。</p>
</div><p>“We’ve had a rather cautious, not necessarily fully defensive… view here for a while,” which was “reinforced” by the Fed’s message, said Larry Hatheway, global investment strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们在这里有一种相对谨慎的、并不完全防御性的看法，” 富兰克林邓普顿投资公司全球投资策略师 Larry Hatheway 表示，这种看法 “得到了美联储信息的强化”。</p>
</div><p>Hatheway added that many in the market would likely be slightly disappointed at the lack of clarity and direction from the Fed, which stopped short of endorsing market expectations for a clear string of rate cuts, emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hatheway 补充说，市场上许多人可能会对美联储缺乏清晰和方向感感到略微失望，因为美联储没有明确支持市场对一系列降息的预期，而是强调了逐次会议、依赖数据的方法。</p>
</div><p>At Wednesday’s meeting, the Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, its first cut since December, and signaled a gradual easing cycle in response to mounting labor market concerns. At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted “a challenging situation” for policymakers, noting that risks to inflation were tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周三的会议上，美联储将政策利率下调 25 个基点至 4%-4.25% 的区间，这是自去年 12 月以来的首次降息，并表示将逐步放宽政策，以应对日益严重的劳动力市场担忧。同时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调了政策制定者面临的 “挑战性局面”，指出通胀风险偏向上行，失业风险偏向下行。</p>
</div><p>The comments dampened market optimism despite a much hoped-for dovish shift after recent data that showed unemployment climbing to 4.3% in August and payrolls growing far less than expected. A steep downward revision to benchmark jobs figures for the year through March also recently added weight to the view that the labor market is losing steam, bolstering the case for multiple rate cuts ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管最近数据显示 8 月份失业率攀升至 4.3% 且就业人数增长远低于预期，但这些评论仍然抑制了市场的乐观情绪。对截至 3 月的基准就业数据的急剧下调也进一步加重了劳动力市场失去动力的观点，增强了未来多次降息的理由。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. central bank’s release on Wednesday of updated quarterly economic projections, including rate forecasts issued in a chart known as the “dot plot”, reflected expectations of more easing this year when compared to the ‘dots’ from the June meeting, with 50 basis points in cuts seen before year end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在周三发布的更新季度经济预测中，包括在被称为 “点阵图” 的图表中发布的利率预测，与 6 月份会议的 “点” 相比，反映出对今年更多宽松的预期，预计在年底前将有 50 个基点的降息。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the Fed’s projections still put inflation ending this year at 3%, well above the central bank’s 2% target, while its projection for economic growth was slightly higher at 1.6% versus 1.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美联储的预测仍然预计今年年底通胀将达到 3%，远高于美联储 2% 的目标，而其对经济增长的预测略微上调至 1.6%，而 6 月份为 1.4%。</p>
</div><p>“Markets may welcome the easing bias, but the messaging remains nuanced and far from a full pivot,” said Dan Siluk, head of global short duration and liquidity, and a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市场可能会欢迎宽松的倾向，但信息仍然是微妙的，远未完全转向，” Janus Henderson Investors 的全球短期流动性负责人兼投资组合经理 Dan Siluk 表示。</p>
</div><p>The Nasdaq and the S&amp;P 500 had gone into the meeting close to record highs, but closed lower in choppy trading on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纳斯达克和标准普尔 500 指数在会议前接近历史高点，但在周三的波动交易中收盘下跌。</p>
</div><p>Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices, rose, with two-year yields up four basis points on the day at 3.55% and benchmark 10-year yields up by about seven basis points to 4.09%. The yield curve had been flattening in recent weeks, with the gap between long-dated and short-dated yields decreasing on expectations of rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国债收益率与债券价格呈反向关系，上涨，2 年期收益率当天上涨 4 个基点至 3.55%，基准 10 年期收益率上涨约 7 个基点至 4.09%。收益率曲线在最近几周趋于平坦，长期和短期收益率之间的差距因降息预期而缩小。</p>
</div><p>“The Fed is in a tough spot,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “They expect stagflation, or higher inflation and a weaker labor market. That is not a great environment for financial assets.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美联储处于一个困难的境地，” Brandywine Global Investment Management 的投资组合经理 Jack McIntyre 表示。“他们预期滞胀，或者说更高的通胀和疲弱的劳动力市场。这对金融资产来说并不是一个良好的环境。”</p>
</div><p>STAGFLATION RISKS LINGER U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, resulting in the biggest year-on-year increase in inflation since January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滞胀风险依然存在，美国消费者价格在 8 月份因住房和食品成本上升而上涨，这是七个月以来的最大涨幅，导致通胀年同比增幅达到自 1 月份以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Combined with softening labor market conditions, higher inflation has sparked fears of stagflation - a worrying mix of sluggish growth and high inflation that haunted the U.S. in the 1970s and that could complicate the Fed’s ability to support the jobs market with hefty rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加上劳动力市场条件的软化，更高的通胀引发了对滞胀的担忧——这是一种令人担忧的经济增长缓慢和高通胀的组合，这在 1970 年代困扰着美国，可能会使美联储在大幅降息以支持就业市场时面临困难。</p>
</div><p>“This is far from the stagflation of the 1970s, but at the margin argues for a more conservative outlook for returns on stocks and bonds,” said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这远不是 1970 年代的滞胀，但在边际上支持了对股票和债券回报的更保守展望，” Angeles Investments 的首席投资官 Michael Rosen 表示。</p>
</div><p>The Fed’s shift to easing on Wednesday was also being scrutinized after relentless pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration on the Fed to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储周三的宽松转变也在特朗普总统政府对美联储施加持续压力以降息后受到审视。</p>
</div><p>Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee and economic adviser, was sworn in to the Fed’s Board of Governors on Tuesday and registered the lone dissent to the Fed’s quarter-point cut decision, instead arguing for a bigger half-point reduction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普提名的经济顾问 Stephen Miran 于周二宣誓就职美联储理事会，并对美联储的 25 个基点降息决定表示唯一异议，主张应进行更大幅度的 50 个基点降息。</p>
</div><p>Markets were also left to contend with the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ showing a wide variety of forecasts, with one participant penciling in a 4.4% year-end rate, above the new 4.00%–4.25% range. At the other end, one policymaker marked down a year-end policy rate of 2.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场还需应对美联储的 “点阵图”，显示出广泛的预测，其中一位参与者预计年末利率为 4.4%，高于新的 4.00%-4.25% 区间。另一方面，一位政策制定者将年末政策利率下调至 2.9%。</p>
</div><p>“I think the market was having trouble digesting all the information they got. Certainly, it did not give anyone a tremendous line of sight” into how Fed policymakers are approaching decision-making, said Josh Hirt, senior U.S. economist at Vanguard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为市场在消化他们获得的所有信息时遇到了困难。显然，这并没有给任何人提供清晰的视野，” Vanguard 的高级美国经济学家 Josh Hirt 表示。</p>
</div><p>“There is such disagreement amongst the committee members that there is some heightened uncertainty,” Hirt added, and greater volatility “is one potential consequence of this increased number of different cross currents.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“委员会成员之间存在如此大的分歧，导致不确定性加大，” Hirt 补充道，增加的不同交叉潮流 “可能导致更大的波动性。”</p>
</div><p>Where policymakers expect to steer interest rates</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者预计将如何引导利率</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4mjztuw" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4mjztuw"/></p>

ANALYSIS-Fed's rate cut comes with caveats, leaving investors lukewarm

- 美联储首次降息 25 个基点至 4%-4.25% 区间，未来政策调整存疑。  
- 投资者对风险资产保持谨慎，担忧滞胀风险加剧。  
- 市场反应平淡，因美联储内部对未来利率路径存在分歧。  

分析 - 美联储的降息附带条件，使投资者反应平淡