<p>如果你关注日本的自动化股票，你可能注意到基恩士（Keyence）的股价最近经历了一段波动。在最近的收盘价为 56,060 日元时，该股票在过去一周和一个月内略有下跌，但从长远来看，情况显得更加严峻。自年初以来，它下跌了 11.3%，在过去的十二个月中下跌了 18.2%。尽管面临这些挑战，基恩士在过去五年中仍上涨了近 20%。这使得近期的下跌对于长期投资者来说显得更加突出。</p>
<p>这种短期疲软部分反映了市场对工业技术公司的情绪变化，以及关于自动化投资速度的更广泛讨论。还有关于全球经济不确定性如何影响资本支出的讨论。这些因素对像基恩士这样的股票产生了一定的制约。尽管波动性回归，但值得注意的是，在这些波动中，公司仍然继续实现令人印象深刻的多年增长。</p>
<p>考虑到这一切，自然会想知道最近的价格波动是否创造了一个买入机会，或者是否有更深层次的挑战潜伏在表面之下。根据一个综合估值评分工具，该工具旨在检查公司的价格标签与关键基本面之间的关系，基恩士在六个关键指标中仅在一个指标上被认为是低估的。这是一个 1 的评分，表明按照传统标准，这里可能没有重大价值隐藏。</p>
<p>但在做出任何快速判断之前，让我们更仔细地看看基恩士在几个估值检查中的表现。之后，我将分享一种更强大的方式来思考公司当前价格的真正含义。</p>
<p>基恩士在我们的估值检查中仅得分 1/6。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
<h3>方法 1：基恩士折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流（DCF）模型通过预测公司的未来自由现金流并将其折现回今天的价值来估算公司的内在价值。这种方法帮助投资者判断一只股票是高于还是低于其真实价值。</p>
<p>对于基恩士，DCF 模型使用当前的自由现金流作为基础，目前为 3863 亿日元。分析师预测，到 2030 年 3 月结束的财年，年自由现金流可能攀升至约 5075 亿日元。值得强调的是，分析师的估计通常涵盖前五年，2028 年以后的预测是基于现有趋势的外推。所有数值均以日元报告，与上市和报告货币一致。</p>
<p>该方法得出的基于 DCF 的内在价值为每股 35,715 日元。与当前市场价格 56,060 日元相比，DCF 分析表明基恩士的交易价格存在溢价。具体而言，该股票在这一指标上似乎被高估了约 57%，这表明市场对超出模型预测的增长抱有显著期望。</p>
<p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
<p>请前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出基恩士的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>6861 折现现金流截至 2025 年 9 月</p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明基恩士可能被高估了 57.0%。寻找被低估的股票或创建自己的筛选器，以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
<h3>方法 2：基恩士价格与收益</h3>
<p>市盈率（PE）通常是像基恩士这样的成熟盈利公司的首选估值指标。由于它将公司的股价与每股收益相关联，市盈率使投资者能够了解市场愿意为每单位当前利润支付多少。对于收益稳定且增长的企业，这是一种特别有用的衡量标准。</p>
<p>什么算是 “合理” 的市盈率在很大程度上取决于对未来收益增长的预期以及对这些收益的风险感知。高增长公司往往会要求更高的市盈率倍数，而风险增加可能会抑制投资者愿意支付的倍数。作为参考，基恩士目前的市盈率为 34.2 倍，远高于其行业的平均水平 14.7 倍和同行组的平均水平 18.2 倍。</p>
<p>虽然行业和同行比较提供了信息，但 Simply Wall St 的专有 “公允比率” 更深入地考虑了基恩士的独特特征，包括其预期增长、利润率、商业风险、行业趋势和整体市值。这种量身定制的方法将基恩士的公允比率定为 22.8 倍。这个数值弥合了广泛基准与公司的具体基本面之间的差距。由于基恩士的实际市盈率 34.2 倍明显高于其公允比率，这意味着该股票的交易价格显著高于其基本面所暗示的合理水平。</p>
<p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>TSE:6861 市盈率截至 2025 年 9 月</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现内部人士在大力押注爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
<h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的基恩士叙述</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，所以让我们向你介绍叙述。叙述不仅仅是一个数字；它是一种以故事为驱动的方法，你将对像基恩士这样的公司的看法与自己对未来收入、利润率和公允价值的估计结合起来。这种强大的工具将你对基恩士商业旅程的看法与自定义的财务预测相连接，展示你认为基于你的故事真正合理的价格。</p>
<p>叙述旨在让每个人都能轻松理解，并且可以在 Simply Wall St 的社区页面上获取，数百万投资者在此分享和完善他们的观点。通过构建叙述，您可以轻松将您的公允价值估算与当前市场价格进行比较，从而决定现在是否是买入或卖出的合适时机。由于现实世界的信息总是在变化，叙述会在每次发布新数据或重大新闻时自动更新，保持您的估值相关性。</p>
<p>举例来说，关于基恩士 (ADR) 的一个叙述基于快速的自动化需求预测了更高的公允价值；另一个则更为谨慎，考虑到全球经济风险而给予较低的估值。叙述让您能够看到一系列投资者的观点，瞬间弥合公司故事、数字与您的决策之间的差距。</p>
<p>您认为基恩士 (ADR) 的故事还有更多内容吗？创建您自己的叙述，让社区知道！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/community-fair-value?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/community-fair-value"/></p>
<p>TSE:6861 截至 2025 年 9 月的社区公允价值</p>
<p><em>这篇文章由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不构成财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>

基恩士(ADR)

<p>基恩士的股票近期面临下跌，今年下跌了 11.3%，过去一年下跌了 18.2%，尽管在过去五年中上涨了 20%。市场情绪和全球经济不确定性正在影响其表现。估值检查显示，基恩士在六项指标中仅有一项被低估，现金流折现分析表明其每股价格为¥56,060，估值过高 57%。此外，其市盈率为 34.2 倍，显著高于行业平均水平，表明其交易价格处于溢价状态。投资者对这是否意味着买入机会，或是预示着更深层次的问题感到疑惑</p>

<p>If you follow Japanese automation stocks, you've probably noticed Keyence’s share price has had a rough ride lately. At its last close of 56,060 yen, the stock is down just slightly over the past week and month, but when you zoom out, things look a bit tougher. It's dipped 11.3% since the start of the year and is down 18.2% over the last twelve months. Despite these headwinds, Keyence is still up nearly 20% across five years. This makes the recent declines stand out all the more for long-term investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你关注日本的自动化股票，你可能注意到基恩士（Keyence）的股价最近经历了一段波动。在最近的收盘价为 56,060 日元时，该股票在过去一周和一个月内略有下跌，但从长远来看，情况显得更加严峻。自年初以来，它下跌了 11.3%，在过去的十二个月中下跌了 18.2%。尽管面临这些挑战，基恩士在过去五年中仍上涨了近 20%。这使得近期的下跌对于长期投资者来说显得更加突出。</p>
</div><p>Some of this short-term weakness reflects shifting market sentiment toward industrial technology companies, as well as broader debates about the pace of automation investment. There’s also chatter about how global economic uncertainty could impact capital spending. These factors have put a bit of a brake on stocks like Keyence. Still, while volatility has returned, it’s worth noting how the company continues to post impressive multi-year gains amid these swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种短期疲软部分反映了市场对工业技术公司的情绪变化，以及关于自动化投资速度的更广泛讨论。还有关于全球经济不确定性如何影响资本支出的讨论。这些因素对像基恩士这样的股票产生了一定的制约。尽管波动性回归，但值得注意的是，在这些波动中，公司仍然继续实现令人印象深刻的多年增长。</p>
</div><p>With all of this in mind, it’s natural to wonder whether the recent price action has carved out a buying opportunity or if there are deeper challenges lurking beneath the surface. According to a composite valuation score, a tool designed to check a company’s price tag against key fundamentals, Keyence is currently undervalued in just one out of six key measures. That’s a score of 1, suggesting there might not be major value hiding here by traditional standards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一切，自然会想知道最近的价格波动是否创造了一个买入机会，或者是否有更深层次的挑战潜伏在表面之下。根据一个综合估值评分工具，该工具旨在检查公司的价格标签与关键基本面之间的关系，基恩士在六个关键指标中仅在一个指标上被认为是低估的。这是一个 1 的评分，表明按照传统标准，这里可能没有重大价值隐藏。</p>
</div><p>But before making any snap judgments, let’s take a closer look at how Keyence stacks up across several valuation checks. After that, I’ll share an even more powerful way to think about what the company’s price really means today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在做出任何快速判断之前，让我们更仔细地看看基恩士在几个估值检查中的表现。之后，我将分享一种更强大的方式来思考公司当前价格的真正含义。</p>
</div><p>Keyence scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基恩士在我们的估值检查中仅得分 1/6。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: Keyence Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 1：基恩士折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates the intrinsic value of a company by projecting its future free cash flows and then discounting them back to today's value. This approach helps investors gauge whether a stock is trading above or below its true worth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流（DCF）模型通过预测公司的未来自由现金流并将其折现回今天的价值来估算公司的内在价值。这种方法帮助投资者判断一只股票是高于还是低于其真实价值。</p>
</div><p>For Keyence, the DCF model uses current Free Cash Flow, which stands at ¥386.3 billion, as the base. Analysts have forecast that annual free cash flow could climb to approximately ¥507.5 billion by the fiscal year ending March 2030. It is worth highlighting that analyst estimates generally cover the first five years, and projections beyond 2028 are extrapolated from existing trends. All values are reported in Japanese yen, matching both the listing and reporting currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于基恩士，DCF 模型使用当前的自由现金流作为基础，目前为 3863 亿日元。分析师预测，到 2030 年 3 月结束的财年，年自由现金流可能攀升至约 5075 亿日元。值得强调的是，分析师的估计通常涵盖前五年，2028 年以后的预测是基于现有趋势的外推。所有数值均以日元报告，与上市和报告货币一致。</p>
</div><p>This method arrives at a DCF-based intrinsic value of ¥35,715 per share. Compared to the current market price of ¥56,060, the DCF analysis suggests Keyence is trading at a premium. Specifically, the stock appears to be about 57% overvalued by this measure, indicating the market is pricing in significant expectations for growth beyond what the model projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该方法得出的基于 DCF 的内在价值为每股 35,715 日元。与当前市场价格 56,060 日元相比，DCF 分析表明基恩士的交易价格存在溢价。具体而言，该股票在这一指标上似乎被高估了约 57%，这表明市场对超出模型预测的增长抱有显著期望。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Keyence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出基恩士的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>6861 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6861 折现现金流截至 2025 年 9 月</p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Keyence may be overvalued by 57.0%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明基恩士可能被高估了 57.0%。寻找被低估的股票或创建自己的筛选器，以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: Keyence Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 2：基恩士价格与收益</h3>
</div><p>The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is often the go-to valuation metric for established, profitable companies like Keyence. Since it relates a company's share price to its earnings per share, the PE ratio gives investors a sense of how much the market is willing to pay for each unit of current profit. For businesses with steady earnings and growth, it is a particularly useful yardstick.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率（PE）通常是像基恩士这样的成熟盈利公司的首选估值指标。由于它将公司的股价与每股收益相关联，市盈率使投资者能够了解市场愿意为每单位当前利润支付多少。对于收益稳定且增长的企业，这是一种特别有用的衡量标准。</p>
</div><p>What counts as a “fair” PE ratio depends largely on expectations for future earnings growth and the perceived risks to those earnings. Higher growth companies tend to command higher PE multiples, while increased risk can suppress the multiple that investors are willing to pay. For context, Keyence currently trades at a PE ratio of 34.2x, which is considerably higher than the average for its industry, at 14.7x, and the peer group average of 18.2x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>什么算是 “合理” 的市盈率在很大程度上取决于对未来收益增长的预期以及对这些收益的风险感知。高增长公司往往会要求更高的市盈率倍数，而风险增加可能会抑制投资者愿意支付的倍数。作为参考，基恩士目前的市盈率为 34.2 倍，远高于其行业的平均水平 14.7 倍和同行组的平均水平 18.2 倍。</p>
</div><p>While industry and peer comparisons are informative, Simply Wall St's proprietary “Fair Ratio” digs deeper by factoring in Keyence’s unique characteristics, including its expected growth, profit margins, business risks, industry trends, and overall market cap. This tailored approach puts Keyence’s Fair Ratio at 22.8x. This value bridges the gap between broad benchmarks and the company’s specific fundamentals. Because Keyence’s actual PE of 34.2x is notably above its Fair Ratio, the implication is that the stock is trading at a significant premium to what its fundamentals suggest is justified right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然行业和同行比较提供了信息，但 Simply Wall St 的专有 “公允比率” 更深入地考虑了基恩士的独特特征，包括其预期增长、利润率、商业风险、行业趋势和整体市值。这种量身定制的方法将基恩士的公允比率定为 22.8 倍。这个数值弥合了广泛基准与公司的具体基本面之间的差距。由于基恩士的实际市盈率 34.2 倍明显高于其公允比率，这意味着该股票的交易价格显著高于其基本面所暗示的合理水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>TSE:6861 PE Ratio as at Sep 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSE:6861 市盈率截至 2025 年 9 月</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现内部人士在大力押注爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Keyence Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的基恩士叙述</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is more than just a number; it is a story-driven approach where you combine your perspective on a company like Keyence with your own estimates for future revenue, profit margins, and fair value. This powerful tool connects your view of Keyence’s business journey with a custom financial forecast, showing you what price you believe is truly fair based on your story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，所以让我们向你介绍叙述。叙述不仅仅是一个数字；它是一种以故事为驱动的方法，你将对像基恩士这样的公司的看法与自己对未来收入、利润率和公允价值的估计结合起来。这种强大的工具将你对基恩士商业旅程的看法与自定义的财务预测相连接，展示你认为基于你的故事真正合理的价格。</p>
</div><p>Narratives are designed to be accessible and intuitive, available to everyone on Simply Wall St's Community page, where millions of investors share and refine their outlooks. By building a Narrative, you can easily compare your Fair Value estimate to the current market price and decide if now is the right time to buy or sell. Because real-world information is always changing, Narratives update automatically whenever new data or major news is released, keeping your valuation relevant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>叙述旨在让每个人都能轻松理解，并且可以在 Simply Wall St 的社区页面上获取，数百万投资者在此分享和完善他们的观点。通过构建叙述，您可以轻松将您的公允价值估算与当前市场价格进行比较，从而决定现在是否是买入或卖出的合适时机。由于现实世界的信息总是在变化，叙述会在每次发布新数据或重大新闻时自动更新，保持您的估值相关性。</p>
</div><p>To illustrate, one Narrative for Keyence forecasts a much higher fair value based on rapid automation demand; another is more cautious and values it lower given global economic risks. Narratives let you see a range of investor viewpoints, instantly bridging the gap between a company’s story, the numbers, and your decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>举例来说，关于基恩士 (ADR) 的一个叙述基于快速的自动化需求预测了更高的公允价值；另一个则更为谨慎，考虑到全球经济风险而给予较低的估值。叙述让您能够看到一系列投资者的观点，瞬间弥合公司故事、数字与您的决策之间的差距。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for Keyence? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您认为基恩士 (ADR) 的故事还有更多内容吗？创建您自己的叙述，让社区知道！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/community-fair-value" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/b8448e13-351c-43d7-ba5f-ea6083fde61d/chart/community-fair-value"/></p>
<p>TSE:6861 Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSE:6861 截至 2025 年 9 月的社区公允价值</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇文章由 Simply Wall St 撰写，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不构成财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
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基恩士近期的亏损对 2025 年的投资者有何影响？