<p>没有办法确切知道股市何时会有大幅波动。有时，早晨或交易日中会发布意外消息，这可能会使市场朝一个方向急剧波动。</p>
<p>另一方面，有些日子我们可以预测市场的波动性高于平均水平，其中一个例子是美联储发布货币政策决策的日子。虽然无法提前知道市场会以积极还是消极的方式反应，但在美联储会议日，市场上涨或下跌的幅度通常会高于平均水平。</p>
<p>随着下次美联储会议定于十月最后一周举行，并于 10 月 29 日（星期三）结束，投资者应该了解以下信息。</p>
<h2>市场的预期</h2>
<p>根据最近的经济数据，以及美联储官员的评论和上次会议的纪要，投资者普遍预计美联储将在十月会议结束时再次降息。</p>
<p>根据 CME FedWatch 工具，该工具显示期货市场中已计入的利率变动，联邦基金利率降低 25 个基点（0.25%）的概率为 94.6%。没有降息的概率为 5.4%。同样重要的是要意识到，尽管美联储在技术上可以采取其他措施，例如降息 50 个基点，但这两种概率加起来为 100%——因此投资者并未考虑其他任何现实的可能性。</p>
<h2>可能影响市场的因素</h2>
<p>在美联储会议后，有四个主要因素可能会影响股市，我们逐一来看：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>利率决定</strong>-当然，如果美联储采取除了降息 25 个基点以外的任何行动，这将对投资者来说是一个重大惊喜，并可能影响市场。具体来说，如果美联储让投资者感到意外，完全不降息，这几乎肯定会对股票产生负面影响。</li>
<li><strong>经济预测</strong>-美联储的政策制定机构——联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员会发布对 GDP 增长、失业率和未来利率的预测。但这仅在_每隔一次的美联储会议_上进行，而在十月不会发生。</li>
<li><strong>声明</strong>-与利率决定一起，FOMC 会发布一份声明来解释其决定。世界上几乎没有任何文件的语言受到如此严格的审查。即使是微小的措辞变化也可能被解读为未来降息概率的指标。</li>
<li><strong>新闻发布会</strong>-在 FOMC 会议结束和利率决定公布后不久，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会，回答有关美联储决定及其背景的问题。鲍威尔的评论无疑会影响市场，即使利率决定和声明如预期那样。</li>
</ul>
<p>还值得注意的是，这些因素是相互关联的，某一领域看似负面的消息可能会被其他地方的好消息抵消。例如，如果美联储在十月决定维持利率不变，但在声明中表示 2026 年将有更多降息，而不是目前预期的那样，这可能被视为积极的发展。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1NDUvc2hvY2tlZC1leHByZXNzaW9uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtbGFwdG9wLTIwMjIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1NDUvc2hvY2tlZC1leHByZXNzaW9uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtbGFwdG9wLTIwMjIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>虽然几乎可以肯定我们将在本月底再次降息，但美联储声明的内容和鲍威尔的新闻发布会内容仍然无法预测，可能会对市场产生影响。10 月 29 日，我们将在下午 2 点获得美联储最新的货币政策见解，当时将公布利率决定，这可能会成为股市中一个激动人心的日子。</p>

<p>即将于 10 月 29 日召开的美联储会议预计将对股市产生重大影响，目前市场对降息 25 个基点的概率为 94.6%。投资者正密切关注美联储的利率决定、经济预测、声明以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会，因为这些因素可能导致市场波动性高于平均水平。虽然预计会降息，但市场的反应将取决于美联储沟通的具体内容以及会议期间可能出现的任何意外情况</p>

<p>There's no way to know for sure when the stock market is going to have a big day. Sometimes, there is unexpected news released in the morning or even during the trading day that can move the market sharply in one direction or the other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有办法确切知道股市何时会有大幅波动。有时，早晨或交易日中会发布意外消息，这可能会使市场朝一个方向急剧波动。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, there are some days that we can predict above-average volatility in the market, and one example of this is days when the Federal Reserve releases its monetary policy decisions. While it's impossible to know ahead of time whether the market will react in a positive or negative way, it's quite common to see the market rise or fall by an above-average percentage on Fed meeting days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，有些日子我们可以预测市场的波动性高于平均水平，其中一个例子是美联储发布货币政策决策的日子。虽然无法提前知道市场会以积极还是消极的方式反应，但在美联储会议日，市场上涨或下跌的幅度通常会高于平均水平。</p>
</div><p>With the next Fed meeting scheduled to take place in the last week of October and to wrap up on Wednesday, Oct. 29, here's what investors should know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着下次美联储会议定于十月最后一周举行，并于 10 月 29 日（星期三）结束，投资者应该了解以下信息。</p>
</div><h2>What the market expects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场的预期</h2>
</div><p>After recent economic data, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials and the minutes from the last meeting, investors are widely expecting the Fed to cut rates again at the conclusion of its October meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据最近的经济数据，以及美联储官员的评论和上次会议的纪要，投资者普遍预计美联储将在十月会议结束时再次降息。</p>
</div><p>According to the CME FedWatch tool, which shows the interest rate moves priced into futures markets, there is a 94.6% chance that the federal funds rate will be lowered by a quarter of a percentage point (25 basis points). There is a 5.4% chance that there will be no interest rate cut. It's also important to realize that while the Fed could technically do something else entirely, like cut rates by half a percent, these two probabilities add up to 100% -- so investors aren't considering anything else as a realistic possibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME FedWatch 工具，该工具显示期货市场中已计入的利率变动，联邦基金利率降低 25 个基点（0.25%）的概率为 94.6%。没有降息的概率为 5.4%。同样重要的是要意识到，尽管美联储在技术上可以采取其他措施，例如降息 50 个基点，但这两种概率加起来为 100%——因此投资者并未考虑其他任何现实的可能性。</p>
</div><h2>What could move the market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>可能影响市场的因素</h2>
</div><p>There are four main things that could potentially move the stock market after a Fed meeting, so let's take them one at a time:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储会议后，有四个主要因素可能会影响股市，我们逐一来看：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>The rate decision</strong>-Of course, if the Fed does anything besides a quarter-percent rate cut, it would be a big surprise to investors and would likely move the market. Specifically, if the Fed surprised investors by not cutting rates at all, it would almost certainly be a negative catalyst for stocks.</li>
<li><strong>The economic projections</strong>-The members of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), which is the policy-making arm of the Fed, release their projections for GDP growth, unemployment, and future interest rates. But this is only done at <em>every other Fed meeting</em> and will not happen in October.</li>
<li><strong>The statement</strong>-Along with its interest rate decision, the FOMC releases a statement justifying its decision. And there are few documents anywhere in the world whose language is quite as scrutinized. Even minor wording changes can be interpreted as indicators of future rate cut probabilities.</li>
<li><strong>The press conference</strong>-Shortly after the conclusion of the FOMC meeting and the announcement of the interest rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference where he'll take questions about the Fed's decision and the circumstances around it. Powell's comments can certainly move the market, even if the rate decision and statement are as expected.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>利率决定</strong>-当然，如果美联储采取除了降息 25 个基点以外的任何行动，这将对投资者来说是一个重大惊喜，并可能影响市场。具体来说，如果美联储让投资者感到意外，完全不降息，这几乎肯定会对股票产生负面影响。</li>
<li><strong>经济预测</strong>-美联储的政策制定机构——联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员会发布对 GDP 增长、失业率和未来利率的预测。但这仅在_每隔一次的美联储会议_上进行，而在十月不会发生。</li>
<li><strong>声明</strong>-与利率决定一起，FOMC 会发布一份声明来解释其决定。世界上几乎没有任何文件的语言受到如此严格的审查。即使是微小的措辞变化也可能被解读为未来降息概率的指标。</li>
<li><strong>新闻发布会</strong>-在 FOMC 会议结束和利率决定公布后不久，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会，回答有关美联储决定及其背景的问题。鲍威尔的评论无疑会影响市场，即使利率决定和声明如预期那样。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>It's also worth noting that these work in combination with one another, and seemingly negative news in one area could be offset by good news elsewhere. For example, if the Fed decides to leave rates alone in October but indicates in the statement that more rate cuts are coming in 2026 than are currently expected, it could be perceived as a positive development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还值得注意的是，这些因素是相互关联的，某一领域看似负面的消息可能会被其他地方的好消息抵消。例如，如果美联储在十月决定维持利率不变，但在声明中表示 2026 年将有更多降息，而不是目前预期的那样，这可能被视为积极的发展。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzY1NDUvc2hvY2tlZC1leHByZXNzaW9uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtbGFwdG9wLTIwMjIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836545%2Fshocked-expression-looking-at-laptop-2022.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>While it's nearly certain that we'll get another rate cut at the end of this month, the contents of the Fed's statement and Powell's press conference are anyone's guess and could certainly move the market. On Oct. 29, we'll get the latest insights into monetary policy from the Fed starting at 2pm when the rate decision is revealed, and it could turn into an exciting day in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然几乎可以肯定我们将在本月底再次降息，但美联储声明的内容和鲍威尔的新闻发布会内容仍然无法预测，可能会对市场产生影响。10 月 29 日，我们将在下午 2 点获得美联储最新的货币政策见解，当时将公布利率决定，这可能会成为股市中一个激动人心的日子。</p>
</div>

Why Oct. 29 Could Be a Big Day for the Stock Market

- 投资者预计美联储将在 10 月会议上再次降息，概率为 94.6%。  
- 美联储的利率决策、经济预测、声明和新闻发布会可能影响市场波动。  
- 10 月 29 日的会议将揭示最新货币政策，可能引发股市剧烈波动。  

为什么 10 月 29 日可能会成为股市的一个重要日子