<p>一个多世纪以来，股票一直是首屈一指的财富创造者。虽然其他资产类别，如房地产、商品和债券，也在一定程度上帮助投资者增加名义财富，但这些策略都无法与股票在长期内的年化回报相提并论。</p>
<p>最近，我们看到基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.53%)、受增长驱动的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC 0.52%) 和历久弥新的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI 0.52%) 都达到了创纪录的收盘高点。人工智能（AI）和量子计算的崛起，加上美联储持续降息的前景，显然让投资者对未来充满期待。</p>
<p>然而，股票在任何较长的时间框架内都很少会直线上涨。尽管对未来降息的兴奋情绪推动了华尔街的牛市，但历史告诉我们，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的宽松周期将使股票面临颠簸和失望的旅程。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNTMvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1mb21jLW9mZmljaWFsLXBob3RvLWZlZGVyYWwtcmVzZXJ2ZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNTMvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1mb21jLW9mZmljaWFsLXBob3RvLWZlZGVyYWwtcmVzZXJ2ZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在联邦公开市场委员会会议后回答问题。图片来源：美联储官方照片。</p>
<h2>在美联储货币政策方面，表象并不总是如实</h2>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和国家中央银行的其他理事有两个常常相互对立的任务：保持美国经济增长，并防止通货膨胀率失控。稳定增长与适度通胀——2% 是美联储历史上的长期通胀目标——是最终目标。</p>
<p>美联储通过调整联邦基金利率来实现其任务，这是一种银行在隔夜基础上向其他金融机构借贷其储备的利率。</p>
<p>它还可以进行公开市场操作，例如购买或出售长期国债。债券价格和收益率之间存在反向关系，这意味着购买债券并提高其价格可以降低长期收益率。相反，出售国债可以提高长期收益率。</p>
<p>从表面上看，美联储的工具包似乎简单明了。如果国家中央银行正在提高联邦基金利率，这最终会提高企业/个人贷款和信用卡的借贷利率，并可能间接影响抵押贷款利率，这应该被视为对美国企业的负面影响。这就像美联储在对美国经济踩刹车。</p>
<p>相反，如果中央银行正在降低联邦基金利率，逻辑上应该是它试图鼓励企业借贷并推动经济增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7faff349294506554ede036c3582ec5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7faff349294506554ede036c3582ec5.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的有效联邦基金利率数据。</p>
<p>然而，还有一个尚未提及的变量混入这些决策中：反应性。</p>
<p>国家中央银行根据向后看的经济数据做出货币政策决策。它是一个反应性而非前瞻性的实体，这意味着其行动往往与所暗示的效果相反。</p>
<p>例如，美联储通常在美国经济运转良好时提高联邦基金利率。在这种情况下，即使企业借贷成本上升，债券收益率变得更具吸引力，股票往往也会表现优异。</p>
<p>另一方面，中央银行通常在出现问题时采取降息周期。这可能包括就业市场疲软、通缩迹象或其他经济指标，表明衰退的可能性增加。</p>
<p>美联储目前正处于降息周期，根据历史经验，这对股票来说是个坏消息。</p>
<h2>降息周期在 21 世纪对华尔街发出了警告</h2>
<p>自本世纪开始以来，国家中央银行进行了四次独立的降息周期，包括当前的这一轮。在之前的三轮中，广泛的标准普尔 500 指数经历了显著的熊市。</p>
<p>21 世纪的第一次降息周期开始于互联网泡沫形成不到一年，并在 2001 年 9 月美国发生悲惨的恐怖袭击期间持续。2001 年 1 月 3 日，美联储将联邦基金利率降低了 50 个基点至 6%。到 2001 年 12 月 11 日，国家中央银行已将其联邦基金利率从 6.5% 降至 1.75%。</p>
<p>但正如您在图表中所注意到的，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数在美联储降息周期的早期阶段逆转了适度的涨幅，到 2002 年 10 月分别损失了 42% 和 57% 的价值。成熟的以股票驱动的道琼斯工业平均指数表现也不佳，该指数损失了三分之一的价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d96657d5b3155c49e9118c9fd2c43646.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d96657d5b3155c49e9118c9fd2c43646.png"/></p>
<p>^DJI 数据来源于 YCharts。2001 年 1 月 3 日至 2002 年 10 月 9 日的回报率。</p>
<p>本世纪的第二次鸽派货币政策发生在金融危机（即大衰退）形成的几周前。2007 年 9 月 18 日，美联储将联邦基金利率下调 50 个基点至 4.75%。到 2008 年 12 月 16 日，随着美国金融系统陷入困境，美联储已将联邦基金利率降低至创纪录的 0% 至 0.25% 的区间。</p>
<p>在大衰退期间，华尔街的主要指数没有一个幸免，标志性的道琼斯和依赖科技的纳斯达克在 2007 年 9 月的第一次降息后暴跌 52%，而标准普尔 500 指数则损失了 55% 的价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7699e0fc7e10191eb25ef5e70210af23.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7699e0fc7e10191eb25ef5e70210af23.png"/></p>
<p>^DJI 数据来源于 YCharts。2007 年 9 月 18 日至 2009 年 3 月 9 日的回报率。</p>
<p>本世纪第三次美联储降息始于 2019 年 8 月 1 日，由现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔主持。在鲍威尔所称的 “中期调整” 中，国家中央银行将联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点，至 2% 至 2.25% 的区间。但由于不可预见的 COVID-19 疫情在几个月后爆发，美联储再次将联邦基金利率在 2020 年 3 月 16 日降至 0% 至 0.25%。</p>
<p>尽管在 2019 年 8 月美联储降息周期启动后，股票市场最初出现反弹，但纳斯达克综合指数、标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯工业平均指数从降息第一天到 2020 年 3 月 23 日的低点，分别下跌了 15%、24% 和 30%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ea2b54fb5148149aa361eeac38fd27dd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ea2b54fb5148149aa361eeac38fd27dd.png"/></p>
<p>^DJI 数据来源于 YCharts。2019 年 8 月 1 日至 2020 年 3 月 23 日的回报率。</p>
<p>历史非常清楚：美联储降息与股票市场最终出现问题相关联。</p>
<h2>相关性是双向的</h2>
<p>如果在这些数据中有一个积极的方面，那就是相关性是双向的，从历史上看，这强烈支持长期乐观的投资者。</p>
<p>这并不是说股市修正、熊市，甚至偶尔的暴跌不会发生，因为这些都是在投资周期中完全正常、健康和不可避免的事件。如果历史重演，美联储当前的鸽派货币政策将与股市的另一次大幅下跌相吻合。</p>
<p>然而，历史也告诉我们，市场周期绝非线性。</p>
<p>例如，自第二次世界大战结束以来，美国经济经历了十几次衰退。平均衰退持续约 10 个月，最长的衰退仅持续 18 个月。</p>
<p>相比之下，典型的经济扩张持续约五年，其中有两个增长期超过 10 年。美国经济在扩张中花费了不成比例的时间，这对企业盈利增长是有利的。</p>
<p>我们在华尔街也看到了这种非线性表现。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>官方消息。新的牛市已确认。</p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数目前比 2022 年 10 月 12 日的收盘低点上涨了 20%。之前的熊市使该指数在 282 天内下跌了 25.4%。</p>
<p>更多信息请访问 https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn。 pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp</p>
<p>-- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) 2023 年 6 月 8 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>如前所述，股票在所有资产类别中长期以来一直是财富创造的首选。在 2023 年 6 月，Bespoke 投资集团的研究人员比较了自 1929 年大萧条开始以来，标准普尔 500 指数每个牛市和熊市的日历天数，发现了相当大的差异。</p>
<p>在一方面，典型的标准普尔 500 熊市持续 286 个日历天，或相当于 9.5 个月。另一方面，平均标准普尔 500 牛市持续 1,011 个日历天，或大约两年零九个月。</p>
<p>即使当股市相关性看起来严峻时，拥有长期思维的投资者也有时间在自己这一边。</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>杰罗姆·鲍威尔正在引领降息周期，历史上这通常会导致股票市场动荡。尽管标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克和道琼斯指数最近达到了历史新高，但美联储的宽松周期往往预示着经济前景的困难。过去的降息与显著的熊市相吻合，这表明当前的乐观情绪可能是错位的。投资者应为潜在的波动做好准备，因为美联储的应对政策可能无法支持股票的持续增长</p>

<p>For more than a century, stocks have been the premier wealth creator. While other asset classes, such as real estate, commodities, and bonds, have done their part to grow the nominal wealth of investors, none of these other strategies have come close to matching the annualized return of stocks over long periods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个多世纪以来，股票一直是首屈一指的财富创造者。虽然其他资产类别，如房地产、商品和债券，也在一定程度上帮助投资者增加名义财富，但这些策略都无法与股票在长期内的年化回报相提并论。</p>
</div><p>Recently, we witnessed the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.53%), growth-fueled <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC 0.52%), and ageless <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI 0.52%) all climb to record-closing highs. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing, coupled with the prospect of ongoing rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, clearly have investors excited about the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，我们看到基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.53%)、受增长驱动的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC 0.52%) 和历久弥新的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI 0.52%) 都达到了创纪录的收盘高点。人工智能（AI）和量子计算的崛起，加上美联储持续降息的前景，显然让投资者对未来充满期待。</p>
</div><p>However, stocks rarely move higher in a straight line for any extended time frame. Though excitement surrounding future interest rate cuts is fueling Wall Street's bull market, history tells us that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's easing cycle is setting stocks up for a bumpy and disappointing ride.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股票在任何较长的时间框架内都很少会直线上涨。尽管对未来降息的兴奋情绪推动了华尔街的牛市，但历史告诉我们，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的宽松周期将使股票面临颠簸和失望的旅程。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgyNTMvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1mb21jLW9mZmljaWFsLXBob3RvLWZlZGVyYWwtcmVzZXJ2ZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838253%2Fjerome-powell-fomc-official-photo-federal-reserve.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell answering questions following a Federal Open Market Committee Meeting. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在联邦公开市场委员会会议后回答问题。图片来源：美联储官方照片。</p>
</div><h2>All is not what it appears when it comes to Federal Reserve monetary policy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在美联储货币政策方面，表象并不总是如实</h2>
</div><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the other governors of the nation's central bank have two tasks that often work opposite of each other: keep the U.S. economy growing, and keep the prevailing rate of inflation from getting out of hand. Steady growth with modest inflation -- 2% is the historical long-term inflation rate target of the Fed -- is the ultimate goal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和国家中央银行的其他理事有两个常常相互对立的任务：保持美国经济增长，并防止通货膨胀率失控。稳定增长与适度通胀——2% 是美联储历史上的长期通胀目标——是最终目标。</p>
</div><p>The Fed aims to accomplish its task by adjusting the federal funds rate, which is the rate banks lend their reserves on an overnight basis to other financial institutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储通过调整联邦基金利率来实现其任务，这是一种银行在隔夜基础上向其他金融机构借贷其储备的利率。</p>
</div><p>It can also undertake open market operations, such as purchasing or selling long-term Treasury bonds. Bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship, meaning purchasing bonds and increasing their price can drive down long-term yields. Conversely, selling Treasury bonds can boost long-term yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还可以进行公开市场操作，例如购买或出售长期国债。债券价格和收益率之间存在反向关系，这意味着购买债券并提高其价格可以降低长期收益率。相反，出售国债可以提高长期收益率。</p>
</div><p>On the surface, the Fed's tool kit appears cut-and-dried. If the nation's central bank is raising the federal funds rate, which ultimately lifts borrowing rates for corporate/personal loans and credit cards, and can have an indirect impact on mortgage rates, it should be viewed as a negative for corporate America. It's akin to the Fed pumping the brakes on the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，美联储的工具包似乎简单明了。如果国家中央银行正在提高联邦基金利率，这最终会提高企业/个人贷款和信用卡的借贷利率，并可能间接影响抵押贷款利率，这应该被视为对美国企业的负面影响。这就像美联储在对美国经济踩刹车。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, if the central bank is lowering the federal funds rate, logic would dictate that it's trying to encourage corporate borrowing and provide a boost to economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，如果中央银行正在降低联邦基金利率，逻辑上应该是它试图鼓励企业借贷并推动经济增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7faff349294506554ede036c3582ec5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7faff349294506554ede036c3582ec5.png"/></p>
<p>Effective Federal Funds Rate data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的有效联邦基金利率数据。</p>
</div><p>Yet there's another variable mixed into these decisions that hasn't yet been mentioned: reactivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，还有一个尚未提及的变量混入这些决策中：反应性。</p>
</div><p>The nation's central bank makes its monetary policy decisions based on backward-looking economic data. It's a reactive, not proactive, entity, which means its actions often have the opposite effect of what's implied.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国家中央银行根据向后看的经济数据做出货币政策决策。它是一个反应性而非前瞻性的实体，这意味着其行动往往与所暗示的效果相反。</p>
</div><p>For example, the Fed typically increases its fed funds rate when the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders. In such a scenario, stocks tend to outperform, even with corporate borrowing costs climbing and bond yields becoming more attractive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，美联储通常在美国经济运转良好时提高联邦基金利率。在这种情况下，即使企业借贷成本上升，债券收益率变得更具吸引力，股票往往也会表现优异。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, the central bank usually undertakes rate-easing cycles when something is amiss. This might include a weakening job market, evidence of deflation, or other economic indicators that suggest a heightened probability of a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，中央银行通常在出现问题时采取降息周期。这可能包括就业市场疲软、通缩迹象或其他经济指标，表明衰退的可能性增加。</p>
</div><p>The Fed is currently in a rate-easing cycle, and based on what history tells us, that's terrible news for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储目前正处于降息周期，根据历史经验，这对股票来说是个坏消息。</p>
</div><h2>Rate-easing cycles have been a warning for Wall Street in the 21st century</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降息周期在 21 世纪对华尔街发出了警告</h2>
</div><p>Since this century began, the nation's central bank has undertaken four separate rate-easing cycles, including the present. In each of the previous three cycles, the broad-based S&amp;P 500 endured a meaningful bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自本世纪开始以来，国家中央银行进行了四次独立的降息周期，包括当前的这一轮。在之前的三轮中，广泛的标准普尔 500 指数经历了显著的熊市。</p>
</div><p>The first easing cycle of the 21st century began less than a year after the dot-com bubble took shape, and continued amid the tragic terrorist attack on America in September 2001. On Jan. 3, 2001, the Fed ushered in a 50-basis-point reduction of the federal funds rate to 6%. By Dec. 11, 2001, the nation's central bank had reduced its fed funds rate from 6.5% to 1.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>21 世纪的第一次降息周期开始于互联网泡沫形成不到一年，并在 2001 年 9 月美国发生悲惨的恐怖袭击期间持续。2001 年 1 月 3 日，美联储将联邦基金利率降低了 50 个基点至 6%。到 2001 年 12 月 11 日，国家中央银行已将其联邦基金利率从 6.5% 降至 1.75%。</p>
</div><p>But as you'll note in the chart, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reversed modest gains in the early days of the Fed's easing cycle to lose 42% and 57% of their respective value by October 2002. The mature stock-driven Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't fare much better, with the index losing a third of its value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但正如您在图表中所注意到的，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数在美联储降息周期的早期阶段逆转了适度的涨幅，到 2002 年 10 月分别损失了 42% 和 57% 的价值。成熟的以股票驱动的道琼斯工业平均指数表现也不佳，该指数损失了三分之一的价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d96657d5b3155c49e9118c9fd2c43646.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d96657d5b3155c49e9118c9fd2c43646.png"/></p>
<p>^DJI data by YCharts. Return rate from Jan. 3, 2001-Oct. 9, 2002.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>^DJI 数据来源于 YCharts。2001 年 1 月 3 日至 2002 年 10 月 9 日的回报率。</p>
</div><p>The second dose of dovish monetary policy this century occurred mere weeks before the financial crisis (aka, Great Recession) took shape. On Sept. 18, 2007, the Fed lopped 50 basis points off of its federal funds rate to 4.75%. By Dec. 16, 2008, with America's financial system in dire straits, the Fed had lowered the fed funds rate to a record-low range of 0% to 0.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本世纪的第二次鸽派货币政策发生在金融危机（即大衰退）形成的几周前。2007 年 9 月 18 日，美联储将联邦基金利率下调 50 个基点至 4.75%。到 2008 年 12 月 16 日，随着美国金融系统陷入困境，美联储已将联邦基金利率降低至创纪录的 0% 至 0.25% 的区间。</p>
</div><p>None of Wall Street's major indexes were spared during the Great Recession, with the iconic Dow and tech-reliant Nasdaq plunging 52% following the first rate cut in September 2007, and the S&amp;P 500 shedding 55% of its value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在大衰退期间，华尔街的主要指数没有一个幸免，标志性的道琼斯和依赖科技的纳斯达克在 2007 年 9 月的第一次降息后暴跌 52%，而标准普尔 500 指数则损失了 55% 的价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7699e0fc7e10191eb25ef5e70210af23.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7699e0fc7e10191eb25ef5e70210af23.png"/></p>
<p>^DJI data by YCharts. Return rate from Sept. 18, 2007-March 9, 2009.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>^DJI 数据来源于 YCharts。2007 年 9 月 18 日至 2009 年 3 月 9 日的回报率。</p>
</div><p>The third instance of Fed rate cuts this century began on Aug. 1, 2019, under current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In what Powell termed a &#34;mid-cycle adjustment,&#34; the nation's central bank lowered the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 2% to 2.25%. But due to the unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic, which manifested mere months later, the Fed again slashed its fed funds rate to 0% to 0.25% by March 16, 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本世纪第三次美联储降息始于 2019 年 8 月 1 日，由现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔主持。在鲍威尔所称的 “中期调整” 中，国家中央银行将联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点，至 2% 至 2.25% 的区间。但由于不可预见的 COVID-19 疫情在几个月后爆发，美联储再次将联邦基金利率在 2020 年 3 月 16 日降至 0% 至 0.25%。</p>
</div><p>Although stocks initially rallied following the kickoff of the Fed's rate-easing cycle in August 2019, the Nasdaq Composite, S&amp;P 500, and Dow Jones plunged 15%, 24%, and 30%, respectively, from day one of rate cuts to their trough on March 23, 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在 2019 年 8 月美联储降息周期启动后，股票市场最初出现反弹，但纳斯达克综合指数、标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯工业平均指数从降息第一天到 2020 年 3 月 23 日的低点，分别下跌了 15%、24% 和 30%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ea2b54fb5148149aa361eeac38fd27dd.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ea2b54fb5148149aa361eeac38fd27dd.png"/></p>
<p>^DJI data by YCharts. Return rate from Aug. 1, 2019-March 23, 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>^DJI 数据来源于 YCharts。2019 年 8 月 1 日至 2020 年 3 月 23 日的回报率。</p>
</div><p>History is crystal clear: Fed rate cuts correlate with eventual trouble for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史非常清楚：美联储降息与股票市场最终出现问题相关联。</p>
</div><h2>Correlations work both ways</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>相关性是双向的</h2>
</div><p>If there's a silver lining among this data, it's that correlations are a two-way street that, historically speaking, strongly favor long-term, optimistic investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果在这些数据中有一个积极的方面，那就是相关性是双向的，从历史上看，这强烈支持长期乐观的投资者。</p>
</div><p>This isn't to say that stock market corrections, bear markets, and even the occasional elevator-down crash won't occur, because these are perfectly normal, healthy, and inevitable events that manifest during investing cycles. If history were to repeat, the current dovish monetary policy from the Fed will coincide with another sizable dip in equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是说股市修正、熊市，甚至偶尔的暴跌不会发生，因为这些都是在投资周期中完全正常、健康和不可避免的事件。如果历史重演，美联储当前的鸽派货币政策将与股市的另一次大幅下跌相吻合。</p>
</div><p>However, history also tells us that market cycles are anything but linear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，历史也告诉我们，市场周期绝非线性。</p>
</div><p>For instance, the U.S. economy has navigated its way through a dozen recessions since World War II came to a close 80 years ago. The average downturn resolved in about 10 months, with the longest recession sticking around for just 18 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，自第二次世界大战结束以来，美国经济经历了十几次衰退。平均衰退持续约 10 个月，最长的衰退仅持续 18 个月。</p>
</div><p>In comparison, the typical economic expansion has lasted for approximately five years, with two periods of growth surpassing the 10-year mark. The U.S. economy spends a disproportionate amount of time expanding, which is favorable to corporate earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，典型的经济扩张持续约五年，其中有两个增长期超过 10 年。美国经济在扩张中花费了不成比例的时间，这对企业盈利增长是有利的。</p>
</div><p>We see this same nonlinearity expressed on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们在华尔街也看到了这种非线性表现。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>It's official. A new bull market is confirmed.</p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 is now up 20% from its 10/12/22 closing low. The prior bear market saw the index fall 25.4% over 282 days.</p>
<p>Read more at https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn. pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp</p>
<p>-- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 8, 2023</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>官方消息。新的牛市已确认。</p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数目前比 2022 年 10 月 12 日的收盘低点上涨了 20%。之前的熊市使该指数在 282 天内下跌了 25.4%。</p>
<p>更多信息请访问 https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn。 pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp</p>
<p>-- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) 2023 年 6 月 8 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>As noted, stocks have been the premier wealth creator among all asset classes over the long run. In June 2023, the researchers at Bespoke Investment Group compared the calendar-day length of every bull and bear market in the S&amp;P 500 dating back to the start of the Great Depression in September 1929 and found quite the variance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，股票在所有资产类别中长期以来一直是财富创造的首选。在 2023 年 6 月，Bespoke 投资集团的研究人员比较了自 1929 年大萧条开始以来，标准普尔 500 指数每个牛市和熊市的日历天数，发现了相当大的差异。</p>
</div><p>In one corner, the typical S&amp;P 500 bear market persisted for 286 calendar days, or the equivalent of 9.5 months. On the other end of the spectrum, the average S&amp;P 500 bull market stuck around for 1,011 calendar days, or approximately two years and nine months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一方面，典型的标准普尔 500 熊市持续 286 个日历天，或相当于 9.5 个月。另一方面，平均标准普尔 500 牛市持续 1,011 个日历天，或大约两年零九个月。</p>
</div><p>Even when stock market correlations appear dire, investors with a long-term mindset have time on their side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使当股市相关性看起来严峻时，拥有长期思维的投资者也有时间在自己这一边。</p>
</div>

Jerome Powell Is Spearheading Rate Cuts: Based on What History Tells Us, Investors Should Buckle Up for a Bumpy Ride

- 股票长期以来是财富创造的主要方式，年化回报率高于其他资产。  
- 美联储的降息周期通常预示着股市将面临波动和下行风险。  
- 历史数据显示，降息与股市下跌存在明显关联，投资者需保持谨慎。

杰罗姆·鲍威尔正在主导降息：根据历史经验，投资者应做好准备迎接动荡的市场