<p>正如传奇投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）常说，投资的一个重要部分是理解宏观经济环境。宏观环境的一个重要部分是由美联储主导的货币政策驱动的，美联储有能力提高和降低利率，并影响经济中的货币供应。</p>
<p>当美联储通过降低利率和增加货币供应来放松货币政策时，这通常是投资者买入股票的信号。当美联储提高利率并收紧货币供应时，投资者应该保持警惕，尽管股市没有绝对的黑白之分。这就是为什么你经常会听到策略师说：“不要与美联储对抗。”</p>
<p>在最近的一次演讲中，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示，美联储正在考虑在未来几个月内 “打破酒会的欢乐气氛”。这可能会引发股票的大幅波动。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgwNDgvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgwNDgvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>准备打破酒会的欢乐气氛</h2>
<p>1955 年，美联储主席威廉·麦克切斯尼·马丁（William McChesney Martin）在一次演讲中表示，美联储 “就像一个监护人，在派对真正热起来的时候下令撤走酒会的饮料。”</p>
<p>这个表达后来被广泛使用，成为描述货币政策的一种方式。当美联储 “撤走酒会的饮料” 时，指的是该机构通过提高利率或量化紧缩（QT）来收紧货币政策，量化紧缩是指美联储减少其资产负债表上的债券持有量，从而有效地从经济中移除资金。而 “打破酒会的欢乐气氛” 则是相反的，当美联储降低利率并通过量化宽松（QE）向经济注入资金时。</p>
<p>尽管市场表现强劲，但美联储在过去几年中一直在撤走酒会的饮料——或者至少减少了一些饮料。这包括自 2022 年开始的激进加息行动，以及在疫情高峰期间美联储采取的所有措施导致其资产负债表膨胀后，进行的量化紧缩。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fd851bb47fd4fbe8d72b8c7a86abe9cb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fd851bb47fd4fbe8d72b8c7a86abe9cb.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>如上所示，在疫情开始之前，美联储的资产负债表上大约有 4 万亿美元的资产，这主要是由于 2008-09 年大萧条后发生的所有量化宽松。这个数字在 2022 年初翻了一番，因为美联储采取了重大措施来支撑经济，而经济在疫情最严重时基本关闭了几个月，并短暂经历了失业率飙升。</p>
<p>然而，美联储最终开始了量化紧缩，并在降低资产负债表上的资产方面取得了显著进展，目前约为 6.6 万亿美元。此外，请记住，美联储在 2024 年开始降低利率。由于对高通胀的不确定性，该机构在今年大部分时间内暂停了行动，但在 9 月份恢复了降息。</p>
<p>尽管许多人仍在争论美联储是否真的需要降息，以及未来降息的次数，鲍威尔在 10 月 14 日于费城全国商业经济学协会会议上的演讲中似乎让投资者感到意外，他暗示美联储可能很快会暂停量化紧缩：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我们长期以来的计划是在储备水平略高于我们认为与充足储备条件一致的水平时停止资产负债表的缩减。我们可能在未来几个月接近这一点，我们正在密切监测一系列指标以指导这一决定。一些迹象已经开始出现，流动性条件正在逐渐收紧，包括回购利率的一般上升，以及在特定日期上更明显但暂时的压力。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>尽管美联储的资产负债表仍然比疫情前的水平高出约 2.5 万亿美元，但鲍威尔明确表示，正常化美联储的资产负债表并不一定意味着回到疫情前的水平。美联储还希望避免 2019 年在美联储首次进行量化紧缩时发生的事件。银行储备过低，短期回购市场的收益率（银行用来有效管理短期流动性的市场）大幅飙升。这迫使美联储恢复量化紧缩，并向回购市场注入数百亿资金。</p>
<h2>为什么这可能引发股票的大幅波动</h2>
<p>简单来说，经济中流通的资金越多，进入金融资产的可能性就越大。许多专家将多年来的巨额量化宽松归因于住房价格和股市等其他资产的激增。</p>
<p>虽然这并不完美，但在更广泛的基准 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong>、美联储的资产负债表和 M2 货币供应量之间似乎确实存在某种相关性。M2 是衡量美国流动资产总量的指标，包括现金、支票和储蓄账户余额，以及货币市场基金和存款证等其他短期账户。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1f2433174816a71ca5f7d1fa9938395a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1f2433174816a71ca5f7d1fa9938395a.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX 数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>重要的是要理解，美联储并没有重新启动量化宽松，至少目前还没有。但是，如果该机构结束量化紧缩，这将使经济中留存更多资金。结合降息，美联储将会 “打破酒会的欢乐气氛”，这在历史上对股票是有利的。</p>
<p>当然，投资者还必须考虑其他因素，包括市场的高估值以及人工智能行业是否能够继续增长。这就是为什么投资者可能希望继续进行定投。无论如何，量化紧缩的结束应该为股票创造一个更有利的环境，以便进行下一轮上涨。</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近的评论暗示货币政策可能发生变化，这可能会对股市产生重大影响。历史上，当美联储通过降低利率和增加货币供应来放松货币政策时，这通常会向投资者发出买入股票的信号。相反，收紧措施可能会导致投资者保持谨慎。鲍威尔暗示可能会暂停量化紧缩，这可能会导致经济中的流动性增加，随着更多资金流入金融资产，可能会引发股票价格的重大波动</p>

<p>As legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller often says, a big part of investing involves understanding the macroeconomic environment. A big part of the macro environment is driven by monetary policy led by the Federal Reserve, which has the power to increase and decrease interest rates and influence the money supply in the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如传奇投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）常说，投资的一个重要部分是理解宏观经济环境。宏观环境的一个重要部分是由美联储主导的货币政策驱动的，美联储有能力提高和降低利率，并影响经济中的货币供应。</p>
</div><p>When the Fed is easing monetary policy by lowering rates and increasing the money supply, that's often a signal for investors to buy stocks. When the Fed is increasing interest rates and tightening the money supply, investors should be wary, although nothing in the stock market is black and white. This is why you'll often hear strategists say, &#34;Don't fight the Fed.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当美联储通过降低利率和增加货币供应来放松货币政策时，这通常是投资者买入股票的信号。当美联储提高利率并收紧货币供应时，投资者应该保持警惕，尽管股市没有绝对的黑白之分。这就是为什么你经常会听到策略师说：“不要与美联储对抗。”</p>
</div><p>In a recent speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is thinking about spiking the punch bowl in the coming months. It could trigger a big move for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的一次演讲中，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示，美联储正在考虑在未来几个月内 “打破酒会的欢乐气氛”。这可能会引发股票的大幅波动。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzgwNDgvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F838048%2Fperson-computer-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Preparing to spike the punch bowl</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>准备打破酒会的欢乐气氛</h2>
</div><p>In 1955, Fed Chair William McChesney Martin said during a speech that the Fed &#34;is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1955 年，美联储主席威廉·麦克切斯尼·马丁（William McChesney Martin）在一次演讲中表示，美联储 “就像一个监护人，在派对真正热起来的时候下令撤走酒会的饮料。”</p>
</div><p>The expression would go on to stick and serve as a way to describe monetary policy. When the Fed &#34;takes away the punch bowl,&#34; that refers to the agency tightening monetary policy through higher interest rates or quantitative tightening (QT), which is when the Fed reduces the bond holdings on its balance sheet and effectively removes money from the economy. &#34;Spiking the punch bowl&#34; is the opposite, when the Fed lowers rates and pumps money into the economy through quantitative easing (QE).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个表达后来被广泛使用，成为描述货币政策的一种方式。当美联储 “撤走酒会的饮料” 时，指的是该机构通过提高利率或量化紧缩（QT）来收紧货币政策，量化紧缩是指美联储减少其资产负债表上的债券持有量，从而有效地从经济中移除资金。而 “打破酒会的欢乐气氛” 则是相反的，当美联储降低利率并通过量化宽松（QE）向经济注入资金时。</p>
</div><p>While you wouldn't know it by how strong the market has been, the Fed has been taking away the punch bowl -- or at least removing some punch -- over the past few years. This includes an intense interest rate hiking campaign starting in 2022, and QT to reduce the Fed's balance sheet after it swelled up due to all the actions the Fed took during the pandemic's height.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管市场表现强劲，但美联储在过去几年中一直在撤走酒会的饮料——或者至少减少了一些饮料。这包括自 2022 年开始的激进加息行动，以及在疫情高峰期间美联储采取的所有措施导致其资产负债表膨胀后，进行的量化紧缩。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fd851bb47fd4fbe8d72b8c7a86abe9cb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fd851bb47fd4fbe8d72b8c7a86abe9cb.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>As you can see above, the Fed had about $4 trillion of assets on its balance sheet right before the start of the pandemic, which was mostly due to all the QE that occurred after the Great Recession in 2008-09. That number more than doubled in early 2022 after the Fed took significant actions to shore up the economy, which essentially closed for several months during the worst of the pandemic, and briefly experienced a surge in unemployment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上所示，在疫情开始之前，美联储的资产负债表上大约有 4 万亿美元的资产，这主要是由于 2008-09 年大萧条后发生的所有量化宽松。这个数字在 2022 年初翻了一番，因为美联储采取了重大措施来支撑经济，而经济在疫情最严重时基本关闭了几个月，并短暂经历了失业率飙升。</p>
</div><p>However, the Fed eventually began QT and has made significant progress in lowering assets on its balance sheet to about $6.6 trillion. Also, keep in mind that the Fed began lowering interest rates in 2024. The agency went on pause for most of this year, due to uncertainty about elevated inflation, but resumed cutting in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美联储最终开始了量化紧缩，并在降低资产负债表上的资产方面取得了显著进展，目前约为 6.6 万亿美元。此外，请记住，美联储在 2024 年开始降低利率。由于对高通胀的不确定性，该机构在今年大部分时间内暂停了行动，但在 9 月份恢复了降息。</p>
</div><p>While many still debate whether or not the Fed actually needs to be cutting rates, and how many times going forward, Powell seemed to surprise investors in a speech on Oct. 14 at the National Association for Business Economics Conference in Philadelphia when he suggested the Fed may soon pause QT:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管许多人仍在争论美联储是否真的需要降息，以及未来降息的次数，鲍威尔在 10 月 14 日于费城全国商业经济学协会会议上的演讲中似乎让投资者感到意外，他暗示美联储可能很快会暂停量化紧缩：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions. We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision. Some signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening, including a general firming of repo rates along with more noticeable but temporary pressures on selected dates.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我们长期以来的计划是在储备水平略高于我们认为与充足储备条件一致的水平时停止资产负债表的缩减。我们可能在未来几个月接近这一点，我们正在密切监测一系列指标以指导这一决定。一些迹象已经开始出现，流动性条件正在逐渐收紧，包括回购利率的一般上升，以及在特定日期上更明显但暂时的压力。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>While the Fed's balance sheet is still roughly $2.5 trillion above pre-pandemic levels, Powell made it clear that normalizing the Fed's balance sheet does not necessarily mean returning to pre-pandemic levels. The Fed also wants to avoid an incident like what happened in 2019 during the Fed's first go at QT. Bank reserves got too low, and yields in the short-term repo market, which banks use to effectively manage short-term liquidity, spiked significantly. This forced the Fed to revert to QT and inject tens of billions into the repo market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美联储的资产负债表仍然比疫情前的水平高出约 2.5 万亿美元，但鲍威尔明确表示，正常化美联储的资产负债表并不一定意味着回到疫情前的水平。美联储还希望避免 2019 年在美联储首次进行量化紧缩时发生的事件。银行储备过低，短期回购市场的收益率（银行用来有效管理短期流动性的市场）大幅飙升。这迫使美联储恢复量化紧缩，并向回购市场注入数百亿资金。</p>
</div><h2>Why it could trigger a big move in stocks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么这可能引发股票的大幅波动</h2>
</div><p>The simple way to think about it is that the more money there is circulating through the economy, the more likely it is to work its way into financial assets. Many experts attribute the epic amounts of QE over the years to the surge in housing prices and the stock market, among other assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，经济中流通的资金越多，进入金融资产的可能性就越大。许多专家将多年来的巨额量化宽松归因于住房价格和股市等其他资产的激增。</p>
</div><p>While it's not perfect, there definitely seems to be some correlation in the broader benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index, the Fed's balance sheet, and M2 money supply. M2 is a measure of total U.S. liquid assets, including cash on hand, checking and savings account balances, and other short-term accounts like money market funds and certificates of deposit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这并不完美，但在更广泛的基准 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong>、美联储的资产负债表和 M2 货币供应量之间似乎确实存在某种相关性。M2 是衡量美国流动资产总量的指标，包括现金、支票和储蓄账户余额，以及货币市场基金和存款证等其他短期账户。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1f2433174816a71ca5f7d1fa9938395a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1f2433174816a71ca5f7d1fa9938395a.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>^SPX 数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>It's important to understand that the Fed is not restarting QE, at least not yet. But if the agency winds down QT, that will leave more money in the economy. Combined with interest rate cuts, the Fed would be spiking the punch bowl, which has historically been good for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是要理解，美联储并没有重新启动量化宽松，至少目前还没有。但是，如果该机构结束量化紧缩，这将使经济中留存更多资金。结合降息，美联储将会 “打破酒会的欢乐气氛”，这在历史上对股票是有利的。</p>
</div><p>Of course, there are other factors investors must consider as well, including the market's elevated valuation and whether the artificial intelligence sector can continue to run. That's why investors may want to continue with dollar-cost averaging for now. Regardless, the end of QT should create a more favorable environment for stocks to make the next leg higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，投资者还必须考虑其他因素，包括市场的高估值以及人工智能行业是否能够继续增长。这就是为什么投资者可能希望继续进行定投。无论如何，量化紧缩的结束应该为股票创造一个更有利的环境，以便进行下一轮上涨。</p>
</div>

Fed Chair Jerome Powell May Soon Spike the Punch Bowl. It Could Trigger a Big Move for Stocks

- 美联储的货币政策对投资者至关重要。  
- 美联储可能暂停量化紧缩，影响市场流动性。  
- 结束量化紧缩将为股票市场创造更有利的环境。  

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔可能很快会撤走刺激措施。这可能会引发股市的大幅波动