<p>作者：Naeem Aslam</p>
<p>当中央银行没有官方数据时，投资者应该怎么做</p>
<p>本周美联储的发言将比以往任何时候都更为重要。</p>
<p>当中央银行在盲目飞行时该怎么办？</p>
<p>美国股市正受到与科技相关的乐观情绪的推动，这种情绪在整个年度中都在推动市场。标准普尔 500 指数（S&amp;P 500 SPX）和纳斯达克综合指数（Nasdaq COMP）因与人工智能相关的股票而上涨，包括英伟达（Nvidia，NVDA）和超微（AMD，AMD）——无视美国政府停摆带来的不适。</p>
<p>但在这种狂欢的表面之下，关于下一个重大宏观经济事件的焦虑正在加剧：联邦公开市场委员会的十月会议。</p>
<p>这次会议定于 10 月 28 日至 29 日举行，正值美联储必须在没有完整政府数据的情况下决定货币政策的时刻。这不仅对美联储提出了操作性问题，也提出了哲学性问题：当中央银行在盲目飞行时该怎么办？</p>
<p>这并非没有先例。美国历史上最长的政府停摆发生在 2018 年底，并持续到 2019 年初，持续了 35 天。那次停摆也延迟了政府数据的发布，迫使美联储使用私营部门的代理数据和基于市场的指标。</p>
<p>这一次风险可能更大：美国经济正在放缓，财政政策动荡不安，货币政策已经紧缩。做错事情或发出错误信号可能会扰乱市场，不必要地收紧金融条件，或导致通货膨胀重新加速。</p>
<p>几乎所有关于本周美联储会议的猜测都集中在美联储是否会将关键利率下调 0.25%（25 个基点）。市场参与者将此视为基本情景，但美联储使用的措辞和语气将是最重要的。</p>
<p>如果美联储降息但继续采取鹰派言辞，市场可能会下跌。股票最初会因降息而欢庆，但美联储对持续通胀威胁的任何谨慎态度都会推高实际收益率和美元指数（DXY），使成长型股票陷入困境。在这种情况下，依赖实际收益率压缩的黄金（GC00）将会下跌，而高贝塔股票的保证金头寸将迅速被平仓。</p>
<p>另一方面，若美联储降息 0.25% 并伴随鸽派评论，市场可能会将其视为宽松周期的开始。如果美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔及其团队强调下行风险——包括劳动市场条件的放缓或全球经济的疲软——市场将大幅上涨。美元将下跌，黄金将突破上涨，股票和加密货币的风险偏好将飙升。</p>
<p>这就是 “软着陆加流动性” 的情景，也是市场多头所押注的方向。</p>
<p>还有可能出现更强有力的美联储举措——0.50%（50 个基点）的降息。这只有在私人数据或金融市场困境表明情况比预期更糟时才会发生。</p>
<p>如此规模的干预将表明美联储意识到即将到来的衰退危险或信贷扭曲。如果伴随鸽派言辞，这样的举动将引发风险资产（股票、加密货币、黄金）的狂欢反应——几乎所有资产都会上涨。但如此大胆的举动也可能引发恐慌，认为美联储意识到了一些公众未能察觉的事情。在这种情况下，初始的激增将被防御性再平衡所跟随，特别是如果投资者开始积极寻找系统性弱点的迹象。</p>
<p>另一个尚未深入探讨的结果是美联储维持利率不变，同时发布鸽派指引。这将是一种经典的 “观望” 策略，特别是如果停摆延迟了太多经济数据，无法证明立即采取行动的必要性。美联储可以说，实际上是 “我们现在不降息，但如果情况恶化，我们会准备好降息。” 这种立场可能会受到股市的欢迎，具体取决于指引的可信度。但如果市场将暂停解读为恐惧或犹豫，波动性将急剧上升。</p>
<p>如果鲍威尔传达的信息对最终发布的数据过于谨慎，或对投资者所预期的情况过于激进，反应可能会非常剧烈。</p>
<p>最后，市场的末日情景：美联储维持利率不变并发出鹰派信号。这种信息在通胀数据滞后但在美联储的替代追踪指标中仍然令人不安时是合理的——或者如果工资增长和住房通胀没有迅速降温。</p>
<p>如果鲍威尔提到诸如 “通胀持续”、“过早宽松” 或 “金融条件过于宽松” 等术语，市场将解读为降息的前景不久将来不会出现。在这种情况下，准备好在标准普尔 500 指数（S&amp;P 500 SPX）中出现急剧抛售，美元上涨，黄金疲软，以及在高杠杆交易中出现极度困扰。</p>
<p>美联储的发言将比以往任何时候都更为重要。由于官方失业率、消费者物价指数（CPI）和工资数据可能缺失，鲍威尔可能会更加依赖 “软” 指标，包括 ISM 调查、失业救济申请和基于市场的通胀预期。这是个问题。这些代理数据往往波动性大且滞后。而这就是风险所在——如果鲍威尔传达的信息对最终发布的数据过于谨慎，或对投资者所预期的情况过于激进，反应可能会非常剧烈。</p>
<p>政治与政策</p>
<p>在政策要求之上，政治正在助长这种狂热。政府停摆持续的时间越长，经济摩擦就越大。联邦工作人员的薪水延迟、合同延迟、建筑项目停工——这些二次影响将开始在收益、消费者数据和情绪中显现。</p>
<p>在紧张局势高涨的情况下，即使美联储降息也可能不足以缓解恐惧。投资者需要积极准备应对所有这些可能性——不仅仅是预期的那一个。这意味着要关注实际收益率、波动率指数和外汇头寸。</p>
<p>黄金仍然是非对称环境中最好的对冲工具之一，特别是在美联储过度调整或不再掌控叙事时。对于股票，要挑剔。避免追逐指数。关注那些具有定价能力、稳健资产负债表和低利率敏感性的公司。</p>
<p>美联储的工作从来都不是简单的。但当它必须在没有所有仪表盘工具的情况下驾驭全球最大经济体时，这就变得更加困难。市场预期经济将实现软着陆。美联储是否支持或破坏这种看法取决于它所说的话，而不是它所做的事。</p>
<p>Naeem Aslam 是伦敦 Zaye Capital Markets 的首席投资官。</p>
<p>更多：在通胀如此高的情况下，美联储怎么可能再次降息？</p>
<p>另请阅读：美国股市的估值几乎在历史上任何时候都更高——几乎所有指标都如此。</p>
<p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>2011 年 10 月 27 日 2011ET</p>

<p>即将于 10 月 28 日至 29 日召开的联邦公开市场委员会会议至关重要，因为美联储在美国政府持续停摆的情况下，无法获得完整的政府数据来调整货币政策。投资者正在猜测可能会有 0.25% 的降息，市场反应将取决于美联储的语气。鸽派立场可能会提振市场，而鹰派信号则可能导致抛售。美联储的决定可能会对股票、美元和黄金产生重大影响，情景包括降息到维持当前利率并提供谨慎的指导</p>

<p>By Naeem Aslam</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Naeem Aslam</p>
</div><p>Here's what investors should do when the central bank doesn't have official data</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当中央银行没有官方数据时，投资者应该怎么做</p>
</div><p>What the Fed says this week will matter more than ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周美联储的发言将比以往任何时候都更为重要。</p>
</div><p>What is a central bank to do when it is flying blind?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当中央银行在盲目飞行时该怎么办？</p>
</div><p>The U.S. stock market is being powered by the same tech-heavy optimism that has driven momentum all year. The S&amp;P 500 SPX and Nasdaq COMP have been lifted by AI-related stocks including Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) - brushing aside the discomfort of the U.S. government shutdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股市正受到与科技相关的乐观情绪的推动，这种情绪在整个年度中都在推动市场。标准普尔 500 指数（S&amp;P 500 SPX）和纳斯达克综合指数（Nasdaq COMP）因与人工智能相关的股票而上涨，包括英伟达（Nvidia，NVDA）和超微（AMD，AMD）——无视美国政府停摆带来的不适。</p>
</div><p>But beneath the surface of this euphoria lies growing anxiety about the next big macroeconomic event: the October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在这种狂欢的表面之下，关于下一个重大宏观经济事件的焦虑正在加剧：联邦公开市场委员会的十月会议。</p>
</div><p>That meeting - set for Oct. 28-29 - comes at a time when the Federal Reserve has to decide on monetary policy without the full panoply of government data it would ordinarily rely on. This poses not just operational questions for the Fed, but also philosophical ones: What is a central bank to do when it is flying blind?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这次会议定于 10 月 28 日至 29 日举行，正值美联储必须在没有完整政府数据的情况下决定货币政策的时刻。这不仅对美联储提出了操作性问题，也提出了哲学性问题：当中央银行在盲目飞行时该怎么办？</p>
</div><p>This is not without precedent. The longest U.S. government shutdown came in late 2018 and carried into early 2019, lasting 35 days. That one delayed government data too, forcing the Fed to use private-sector proxies and market-based indicators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并非没有先例。美国历史上最长的政府停摆发生在 2018 年底，并持续到 2019 年初，持续了 35 天。那次停摆也延迟了政府数据的发布，迫使美联储使用私营部门的代理数据和基于市场的指标。</p>
</div><p>This time the risks may be greater: The U.S. economy is slowing, fiscal policy is in turmoil and monetary policy is already tight. Doing the wrong thing or sending the wrong signal could unsettle markets, tighten financial conditions unnecessarily or allow inflation to reaccelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一次风险可能更大：美国经济正在放缓，财政政策动荡不安，货币政策已经紧缩。做错事情或发出错误信号可能会扰乱市场，不必要地收紧金融条件，或导致通货膨胀重新加速。</p>
</div><p>Almost all the conjecture heading into this week's Fed meeting is focused on whether the Fed will lower the key rate by 0.25%, or 25 basis points. Market participants are seeing this as the base-case scenario, but the wording and tone the Fed uses will be most important.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几乎所有关于本周美联储会议的猜测都集中在美联储是否会将关键利率下调 0.25%（25 个基点）。市场参与者将此视为基本情景，但美联储使用的措辞和语气将是最重要的。</p>
</div><p>Should the Fed reduce rates but continue hawkish rhetoric, markets might sell off. Stocks would initially celebrate the reduction, but any Fed caution about a persistent inflation menace would inflate real yields and the U.S. dollar DXY, putting growth stocks in trouble. Gold (GC00), which lives on real-yield compression, would decline under these circumstances, and margin positioning would be quickly unwound in high-beta stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美联储降息但继续采取鹰派言辞，市场可能会下跌。股票最初会因降息而欢庆，但美联储对持续通胀威胁的任何谨慎态度都会推高实际收益率和美元指数（DXY），使成长型股票陷入困境。在这种情况下，依赖实际收益率压缩的黄金（GC00）将会下跌，而高贝塔股票的保证金头寸将迅速被平仓。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, a 0.25% rate cut with dovish commentary would likely be viewed as the beginning of an easing cycle. If Fed Chair Jerome Powell and team highlight risks on the downside - including softening labor-market conditions or weakness in the economy globally - markets would pop much higher. The dollar would fall, gold would break to the upside and risk appetite for equities and crypto would go through the ceiling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，若美联储降息 0.25% 并伴随鸽派评论，市场可能会将其视为宽松周期的开始。如果美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔及其团队强调下行风险——包括劳动市场条件的放缓或全球经济的疲软——市场将大幅上涨。美元将下跌，黄金将突破上涨，股票和加密货币的风险偏好将飙升。</p>
</div><p>This is the &#34;soft landing plus liquidity&#34; scenario, and what the market bulls are betting on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是 “软着陆加流动性” 的情景，也是市场多头所押注的方向。</p>
</div><p>There is also a chance for a more forceful Fed move - a 0.50% (50-basis-point) reduction. This would be done only if private data or financial-market distress indicates things are breaking faster than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有可能出现更强有力的美联储举措——0.50%（50 个基点）的降息。这只有在私人数据或金融市场困境表明情况比预期更糟时才会发生。</p>
</div><p>An intervention on that scale would indicate the Fed recognizes imminent recession danger or credit distortions. If accompanied by dovish rhetoric, such a move would induce a euphoric response for risk assets - stocks, crypto, gold - nearly everything goes up. But such a bold move could also stoke panic that the Fed recognizes something the general public doesn't. In that scenario, the initial surge would be followed by a defensive rebalancing, particularly if investors start searching hard for hints of systemic weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此规模的干预将表明美联储意识到即将到来的衰退危险或信贷扭曲。如果伴随鸽派言辞，这样的举动将引发风险资产（股票、加密货币、黄金）的狂欢反应——几乎所有资产都会上涨。但如此大胆的举动也可能引发恐慌，认为美联储意识到了一些公众未能察觉的事情。在这种情况下，初始的激增将被防御性再平衡所跟随，特别是如果投资者开始积极寻找系统性弱点的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Yet another underexplored outcome is the Fed holding rates steady while issuing dovish guidance. This would be a classic &#34;wait-and-see&#34; approach, particularly if the shutdown delays too much economic data to justify immediate action. The Fed could say, in effect, &#34;We're not cutting now, but we're prepared to if conditions worsen.&#34; That sort of stance could be well received by equity markets, depending on how credible the guidance is. But if markets interpret the pause as fear or indecision, volatility would rise sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个尚未深入探讨的结果是美联储维持利率不变，同时发布鸽派指引。这将是一种经典的 “观望” 策略，特别是如果停摆延迟了太多经济数据，无法证明立即采取行动的必要性。美联储可以说，实际上是 “我们现在不降息，但如果情况恶化，我们会准备好降息。” 这种立场可能会受到股市的欢迎，具体取决于指引的可信度。但如果市场将暂停解读为恐惧或犹豫，波动性将急剧上升。</p>
</div><p>If Powell delivers a message too cautious for the data that eventually comes out, or too aggressive for what investors are bracing for, the reaction could be violent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果鲍威尔传达的信息对最终发布的数据过于谨慎，或对投资者所预期的情况过于激进，反应可能会非常剧烈。</p>
</div><p>And lastly, the doomsday scenario for markets: The Fed keeps rates unchanged and sends a hawkish signal. This is the type of message that would be reasonable if inflation data is lagging but still too uncomfortable in the Fed's alternative trackers - or if wage growth and shelter inflation have not cooled quickly enough.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，市场的末日情景：美联储维持利率不变并发出鹰派信号。这种信息在通胀数据滞后但在美联储的替代追踪指标中仍然令人不安时是合理的——或者如果工资增长和住房通胀没有迅速降温。</p>
</div><p>Should Powell refer to such terms as &#34;inflation persistence,&#34; &#34;premature easing&#34; or &#34;financial conditions too loose,&#34; markets will interpret it as the message that rate cuts are not on the horizon anytime soon. In that event, prepare for a precipitous selloff in the S&amp;P 500 SPX, a rising dollar, weakness in gold and extreme distress in highly leveraged trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果鲍威尔提到诸如 “通胀持续”、“过早宽松” 或 “金融条件过于宽松” 等术语，市场将解读为降息的前景不久将来不会出现。在这种情况下，准备好在标准普尔 500 指数（S&amp;P 500 SPX）中出现急剧抛售，美元上涨，黄金疲软，以及在高杠杆交易中出现极度困扰。</p>
</div><p>What the Fed says will matter more than ever. With official unemployment, CPI and wage data potentially missing, Powell may lean more heavily on &#34;soft&#34; indicators including ISM surveys, jobless claims and market-based inflation expectations. That's problematic. These proxies are often volatile and backward-looking. And that's where the risk lies - if Powell delivers a message too cautious for the data that eventually comes out, or too aggressive for what investors are bracing for, the reaction could be violent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的发言将比以往任何时候都更为重要。由于官方失业率、消费者物价指数（CPI）和工资数据可能缺失，鲍威尔可能会更加依赖 “软” 指标，包括 ISM 调查、失业救济申请和基于市场的通胀预期。这是个问题。这些代理数据往往波动性大且滞后。而这就是风险所在——如果鲍威尔传达的信息对最终发布的数据过于谨慎，或对投资者所预期的情况过于激进，反应可能会非常剧烈。</p>
</div><p>Politics vs. policy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政治与政策</p>
</div><p>Above the policy imperatives, politics is fueling the frenzy. The longer the government shutdown continues, the more economic friction is caused. Paychecks delayed for federal workers, delayed contracts, halted construction projects - these second-order effects will start showing up in earnings, consumer data and sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在政策要求之上，政治正在助长这种狂热。政府停摆持续的时间越长，经济摩擦就越大。联邦工作人员的薪水延迟、合同延迟、建筑项目停工——这些二次影响将开始在收益、消费者数据和情绪中显现。</p>
</div><p>With tensions running high, even a Fed cut may not be enough to soothe fears. Investors need to be actively gearing up for all these possibilities - not just the expected one. That entails following through on real yields, volatility indexes and FX positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在紧张局势高涨的情况下，即使美联储降息也可能不足以缓解恐惧。投资者需要积极准备应对所有这些可能性——不仅仅是预期的那一个。这意味着要关注实际收益率、波动率指数和外汇头寸。</p>
</div><p>Gold is still one of the best hedges in asymmetric environments, especially if the Fed overcorrects or is no longer in control of the narrative. With stocks, be picky. Avoid chasing the index. Look at firms with pricing power, solid balance sheets and low interest-rate sensitivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金仍然是非对称环境中最好的对冲工具之一，特别是在美联储过度调整或不再掌控叙事时。对于股票，要挑剔。避免追逐指数。关注那些具有定价能力、稳健资产负债表和低利率敏感性的公司。</p>
</div><p>The Fed's job is never straightforward. But when it has to navigate the largest economy in the world without having all the dashboard tools, that is exponentially harder. The market expects a soft landing for the economy. Whether the Fed supports or shatters that perception depends on what it says, not what it does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的工作从来都不是简单的。但当它必须在没有所有仪表盘工具的情况下驾驭全球最大经济体时，这就变得更加困难。市场预期经济将实现软着陆。美联储是否支持或破坏这种看法取决于它所说的话，而不是它所做的事。</p>
</div><p>Naeem Aslam is chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets in London.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Naeem Aslam 是伦敦 Zaye Capital Markets 的首席投资官。</p>
</div><p>More: How can the Fed be cutting interest rates again with inflation running so high?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：在通胀如此高的情况下，美联储怎么可能再次降息？</p>
</div><p>Also read: The stock market is more overvalued than at almost any time in U.S. history - by virtually any measure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：美国股市的估值几乎在历史上任何时候都更高——几乎所有指标都如此。</p>
</div><p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>10-27-25 2011ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2011 年 10 月 27 日 2011ET</p>
</div>

美联储有充分的理由在十月进行降息，但投资者应做好准备应对任何可能发生的情况