<p>加密货币投机者普遍相信 <strong>美联储</strong> 将在周三将利率下调 25 个基点。</p>
<h2>交易已成定局？</h2>
<p>截至目前，在去中心化预测平台 <strong>Polymarket</strong> 上，降息 25 个基点的概率为 98%。另一方面，利率维持在当前 4.00% 至 4.25% 区间的概率仅为 1%。</p>
<p>目前已有超过 2.08 亿美元的赌注押在这一结果上。市场的最终结果将取决于美联储在 10 月会议后的声明。</p>
<p>请注意，美国居民目前被禁止使用基于 <strong>Polygon</strong>(CRYPTO: POL) 的平台 <strong>Polymarket</strong>，但预计不久将开始运营。</p>
<p>与此同时，在联邦监管的平台 <strong>Kalshi</strong> 上，投注者看到 25 个基点降息的概率为 98%。</p>
<p>这些赌注与 CME FedWatch 追踪器的结果大致一致，该追踪器显示美联储在会议后宣布降息 25 个基点的概率为 99.9%。</p>
<h2>鲍威尔会转向鸽派吗？</h2>
<p>有趣的是，<strong>Polymarket</strong> 上 12 月降息的概率也相当高，达 85%。</p>
<p>牛津经济研究院的 <strong>Ryan Sweet</strong> 指出，持续的政府停摆已扰乱了关键经济数据的发布，这种情况可能促使美联储考虑再次降息，以避免在数据驱动的决策中落后。</p>
<p>注意力也将转向美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 的政策声明。美国银行经济学家 <strong>阿迪提亚·巴哈夫</strong> 预计，鲍威尔会因缺乏政府数据而故意保持模糊。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Andrii Yalanskyi，来自 Shutterstock.com</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>货币市场期待可预测的鲍威尔和不可预测的特朗普</strong></li>
</ul>

<p>加密货币投注者对美联储将在周三降息 25 个基点的信心非常高，Polymarket 显示这一结果的概率为 98%。对此结果的投注金额超过 2.08 亿美元。CME FedWatch 追踪器也显示降息的概率为 99.9%。此外，12 月降息的概率为 85%。分析师指出，持续的政府停摆可能会影响美联储的决策，而由于缺乏经济数据，市场对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的声明保持谨慎预期</p>

<p>Cryptocurrency punters are largely confident that the <strong>Federal Reserve</strong> will slash interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密货币投机者普遍相信 <strong>美联储</strong> 将在周三将利率下调 25 个基点。</p>
</div><h2>A Done Deal?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>交易已成定局？</h2>
</div><p>As of this writing, the odds of a quarter-point reduction stood at 98% on the decentralized prediction platform <strong>Polymarket</strong>. On the other hand, there was only a 1% chance that the rates would stay at their current range of 4.00% to 4.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，在去中心化预测平台 <strong>Polymarket</strong> 上，降息 25 个基点的概率为 98%。另一方面，利率维持在当前 4.00% 至 4.25% 区间的概率仅为 1%。</p>
</div><p>More than $208 million has been wagered on the outcome already. The market’s resolution will depend on the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement following its October meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前已有超过 2.08 亿美元的赌注押在这一结果上。市场的最终结果将取决于美联储在 10 月会议后的声明。</p>
</div><p>Note that U.S. residents are currently barred from using <strong>Polymarket</strong>, a <strong>Polygon</strong>(CRYPTO: POL)-based platform, but it is expected to start operations in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意，美国居民目前被禁止使用基于 <strong>Polygon</strong>(CRYPTO: POL) 的平台 <strong>Polymarket</strong>，但预计不久将开始运营。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, bettors on the federally-regulated platform <strong>Kalshi</strong> saw a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，在联邦监管的平台 <strong>Kalshi</strong> 上，投注者看到 25 个基点降息的概率为 98%。</p>
</div><p>These bets were roughly consistent with the CME FedWatch tracker, which showed a 99.9% chance of the central bank announcing a 25 basis point cut after the meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些赌注与 CME FedWatch 追踪器的结果大致一致，该追踪器显示美联储在会议后宣布降息 25 个基点的概率为 99.9%。</p>
</div><h2>Will Powell Turn Dovish?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>鲍威尔会转向鸽派吗？</h2>
</div><p>Interestingly, the odds of a December rate cut were also significantly high on Polymarket, at 85%,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，<strong>Polymarket</strong> 上 12 月降息的概率也相当高，达 85%。</p>
</div><p>Oxford Economics' <strong>Ryan Sweet</strong> noted that the ongoing government shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic data and that the situation might prompt the Fed to consider another rate cut to avoid falling behind in data-driven decision-making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>牛津经济研究院的 <strong>Ryan Sweet</strong> 指出，持续的政府停摆已扰乱了关键经济数据的发布，这种情况可能促使美联储考虑再次降息，以避免在数据驱动的决策中落后。</p>
</div><p>Attention will also shift to the Fed Chair <strong>Jerome Powell’s</strong> policy statement. Bank of America economist <strong>Aditya Bhave</strong> expects Powell to keep things intentionally vague due to the absence of government data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>注意力也将转向美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 的政策声明。美国银行经济学家 <strong>阿迪提亚·巴哈夫</strong> 预计，鲍威尔会因缺乏政府数据而故意保持模糊。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo Courtesy: Andrii Yalanskyi on Shutterstock.com</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Andrii Yalanskyi，来自 Shutterstock.com</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Currency Market Looks To Predictable Powell And Unpredictable Trump</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>货币市场期待可预测的鲍威尔和不可预测的特朗普</strong></li>
</ul>
</div>

Rate Cuts A Foregone Conclusion? Polymarket Bettors Convinced Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve Will Slash On Wednesday

- 加密货币投资者预计美联储将下调利率 25 个基点，概率达 98%。  
- 超过 2.08 亿美元已在此结果上下注，市场将关注美联储会议后的声明。  
- 经济学家认为政府停摆可能促使美联储考虑进一步降息。  

降息是否已成定局？Polymarket 的投注者确信由杰罗姆·鲍威尔领导的美联储将在周三降息