<p>李丹，华尔街洞察</p>
<p>美联储会议纪要显示，在上个月底的货币政策会议上，政策制定者在是否在 12 月降息的问题上严重分歧。认为今年没有必要降息的人数未达到多数，但超过了支持降息的人数。一些中间派将根据数据做出决定。关于减少资产负债表的量化紧缩（QT）行动，几乎达成一致意见认为应该停止。关于金融稳定的风险，有人担心股市出现无序下跌。</p>
<p>美联储于 11 月 19 日东部时间发布的会议纪要指出：“在讨论货币政策的短期方向时，与会者对美联储委员会（FOMC）12 月会议上最可能的政策决定表达了非常不同的看法。大多数与会者认为，随着委员会逐渐转向更中性的政策立场，进一步降息可能是合适的。” “然而，一些人表示，他们可能不认为在 12 月会议上进一步降息 25 个基点是合适的。一些与会者评估，如果在接下来的两次会议之间的经济发展符合他们的预期，12 月进一步降息可能更为合适。” “许多与会者表示，基于他们的经济展望，维持当前利率至年底可能是合适的。” 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策不是静态的，而是受到各种最新数据、不断变化的经济展望和风险平衡的影响。媒体指出，在美联储会议纪要中常用的所谓计数术语中，“许多” 一词代表的人数少于 “多数/大多数”。因此，上述声明表明，在上一次 FOMC 会议上，反对在 12 月再次降息的人仍然是少数。被称为 “新美联储发言人” 的资深美联储记者 Nick Timiraos 指出，会议纪要提到 “许多” 官员认为 12 月降息没有必要，超过了认为降息更可能的官员人数。然而，大多数官员仍然认为，无论是否在 12 月，都应该在未来进行降息。总的来说，大多数美联储官员认为未来会降息，无论何时。这包括将根据数据决定是否在 12 月降息的中间派；许多人认为今年不需要进一步降息，而一些人认为降息是合适的。反对 12 月降息的阵营并不代表多数，但其人数超过了支持 12 月降息的阵营。FOMC 在 10 月 29 日会议后发布的声明显示，FOMC 决定连续第二次将利率下调 25 个基点，但 12 名投票者中有两名反对这一决定。与以往不同，这次在降息幅度和是否继续降息的问题上存在分歧。在反对者中，特朗普总统挑选的新任州长 Milan 仍希望降息 50 个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席 Schmid 支持维持利率不变。许多人认为，今年的关税增加对整体通胀的影响有限。大多数人认为降息可能加剧通胀风险。美联储内部的鹰派观点在会议纪要中得到了反映，提到在讨论风险管理考虑时，大多数与会者认为 FOMC 转向更中性政策立场将有助于避免劳动市场条件的显著恶化。“许多与会者还认为，考虑到今年关税增加的证据越来越多，可能对整体通胀的影响有限，委员会应适当放宽政策立场，以应对就业的下行风险。” 大多数与会者指出，在持续高通胀和劳动市场缓慢降温的背景下，进一步降息可能加剧持续高通胀的风险，或者可能被误解为对 2% 通胀目标缺乏承诺。一些人担心，如果市场突然重新评估人工智能的前景，可能会出现股市崩盘。会议纪要显示，在讨论金融稳定风险时，一些美联储官员对 “金融市场资产的高估值” 表示担忧。会议纪要指出：“一些与会者评论了金融市场资产高估值的问题，几位与会者强调了股价无序下跌的风险，尤其是如果市场突然重新评估与人工智能（AI）相关技术的前景。” 几位与会者还提到了与高企业债务相关的风险。这些担忧反映出美联储在制定货币政策时，不仅关注通胀和就业，还密切关注金融稳定。几乎一致支持结束资产负债表缩减；许多人支持增加短期债务持有比例。上次会议的 FOMC 声明指出，决定于 12 月 1 日结束资产负债表缩减计划。这意味着自 2022 年 6 月 1 日开始的资产负债表缩减计划将在三年半后结束。美联储的公告显示，在 12 月停止资产负债表缩减后，从美联储的机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）中赎回的本金将再投资于短期美国国债，以替代到期的 MBS 持有。周三发布的会议纪要显示，“几乎所有” 与会者认为在 12 月 1 日停止资产负债表缩减是合适的，换句话说，他们都认为这一决定是可以接受的。一些市场参与者此前担心，美联储延迟停止资产负债表缩减可能导致由于流动性压力而引发隔夜融资利率波动。会议纪要指出，与会者一致认为，近期货币市场条件的收紧表明资产负债表缩减接近尾声。“许多与会者指出，更高比例的短期国债持有将为美联储提供更多灵活性，以应对准备金要求或非准备金负债的变化，从而帮助维持充足的准备金水平。” 被称为 “新美联储发言人” 的资深美联储记者 Nick Timiraos 写道，10 月的降息决定引发了对可能在 12 月降息的强烈反对。在他的文章中，Timiraos 强调，会议纪要显示 FOMC 内部对 12 月下次会议的政策决定存在强烈分歧。这使得越来越多的美联储政策制定者——或许是一个狭窄的多数——对 12 月降息感到不安。他指出，这是多年来 FOMC 对下次会议的最大分歧。Timiraos 指出，会议纪要显示几位美联储官员在当时反对 10 月的降息决定，可能包括一些在今年 FOMC 会议上没有投票权的地区联储主席。支持降息的其他官员也表示，他们可以接受不采取行动，突显出委员会内部分歧的严重性。Timiraos 进一步指出，无论 12 月会议的决定如何，大多数美联储官员认为未来需要进一步降息。</p>

<p>美联储会议纪要显示，政策制定者之间对 12 月降息存在严重分歧。虽然许多人认为降息没有必要，但他们仍然是少数。大多数官员预计未来会降息，中间派则根据数据做出决定。担忧包括通胀风险和股市稳定性。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）转向中性政策立场，旨在防止劳动力市场恶化。纪要强调了资产高估的担忧和潜在的股市风险</p>

<p>Li Dan, Wall Street Insights</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>李丹，华尔街洞察</p>
</div><p>The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that at the monetary policy meeting at the end of last month, policymakers were seriously divided on whether to cut interest rates in December. The number of people who believed that there was no need to cut interest rates this year did not reach a majority, but it exceeded the number of people who supported cutting interest rates. Some centrists would decide based on the data. Regarding the quantitative tightening (QT) action to reduce the balance sheet (quantitative tightening), there was almost unanimous agreement that it should be stopped. Regarding the risks to financial stability, some people were worried about a disorderly decline in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储会议纪要显示，在上个月底的货币政策会议上，政策制定者在是否在 12 月降息的问题上严重分歧。认为今年没有必要降息的人数未达到多数，但超过了支持降息的人数。一些中间派将根据数据做出决定。关于减少资产负债表的量化紧缩（QT）行动，几乎达成一致意见认为应该停止。关于金融稳定的风险，有人担心股市出现无序下跌。</p>
</div><p>The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday, November 19th, Eastern Time, stated: &#34;In discussing the near-term direction of monetary policy, participants expressed very different views on the most likely policy decision at the December meeting of the Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC). Most participants believed that further rate cuts might be appropriate as the Committee gradually shifts to a more neutral policy stance.&#34; &#34;However, some suggested that they might not believe a further 25 basis point rate cut would be appropriate at the December meeting. Some participants assessed that if economic developments between the next two meetings met their expectations, a further rate cut in December might be more appropriate.&#34; &#34;Many participants indicated that, based on their economic outlook, maintaining the current interest rate for the remainder of the year might be appropriate.&#34; All participants agreed that monetary policy is not static but is influenced by various latest data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks. Media outlets pointed out that in the so-called counting terminology commonly used in Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the word &#34;many&#34; represents fewer people than &#34;most/majority.&#34; Therefore, the above statement shows that those opposing another rate cut in December were still a minority at the last FOMC meeting. Nick Timiraos, a senior Fed reporter known as the &#34;new Fed mouthpiece,&#34; pointed out that the minutes mentioned &#34;many&#34; officials who believed a rate cut in December was unnecessary, exceeding the number of officials who thought a rate cut was more likely. However, most officials still believed that a rate cut should be made in the future, regardless of whether it is in December. In summary, overall, most Federal Reserve officials believe that interest rates will be cut in the future, regardless of when. This includes centrists who will decide whether to cut rates in December based on data; many believe that no further rate cuts are necessary this year, while several believe that a rate cut is appropriate. The camp advocating against a December rate cut does not represent a majority, but its number exceeds that of the camp supporting a December rate cut. The FOMC's statement released after its October 29th meeting showed that the FOMC decided to cut rates for the second consecutive time by 25 basis points, but two of the 12 voters opposed this decision. Unlike previous instances, this time there was disagreement on both the magnitude of the rate cut and whether to continue. Among the opponents, President Trump's handpicked new governor, Milan, still hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid supports keeping rates unchanged. Many believe that tariff increases this year will have a limited impact on overall inflation. Most believe that interest rate cuts may exacerbate inflation risks. The hawkish view within the Federal Reserve is reflected in the minutes statement, which mentions that when discussing risk management considerations, most participants believed that the FOMC's shift to a more neutral policy stance would help avoid a significant deterioration in labor market conditions. &#34;Many participants also believed that, given mounting evidence that tariff increases this year may have a limited impact on overall inflation, the Committee should appropriately ease its policy stance to address downside risks to employment.&#34; Most participants pointed out that against the backdrop of persistently high inflation and a slowly cooling labor market, further interest rate cuts could exacerbate the risk of persistent high inflation, or could be misinterpreted as a lack of commitment to the 2% inflation target. Some worried about a potential stock market crash if the market suddenly reassessed the prospects of AI. The minutes show that in discussions about financial stability risks, some Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about “overvaluation of assets in financial markets.” The minutes state: “Some participants commented on the issue of overvaluation of assets in financial markets, and several participants emphasized the risk of a disorderly decline in stock prices, especially if the market suddenly reassesses the prospects of artificial intelligence (AI) related technologies.” A couple of participants also mentioned the risks associated with high corporate debt. These concerns reflect that the Federal Reserve, in formulating monetary policy, not only focuses on inflation and employment but also closely monitors financial stability. Almost unanimous support for ending balance sheet reduction; many support increasing the proportion of short-term debt holdings. The FOMC statement from the last meeting indicated that it decided to end the balance sheet reduction program on December 1st. This means that the balance sheet reduction program, which began on June 1, 2022, will end after three and a half years. The Fed's announcement shows that after stopping balance sheet reduction in December, the principal redeemed from the Fed's agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will be reinvested in short-term U.S. Treasury securities, replacing maturing MBS holdings. The meeting minutes released this Wednesday show that &#34;almost all&#34; of the participants believed that stopping balance sheet reduction on December 1st was appropriate, or in other words, they all believed that this decision was acceptable. Some market participants had previously worried that the Fed's delay in stopping balance sheet reduction could lead to fluctuations in overnight funding rates due to liquidity pressures. The minutes stated that participants unanimously agreed that the recent tightening of money market conditions indicated that the balance sheet reduction was nearing its end. &#34;Many participants noted that a higher proportion of short-term Treasury holdings would provide the Federal Reserve with more flexibility to respond to changes in reserve requirements or non-reserve liabilities, thereby helping to maintain adequate reserve levels.&#34; Nick Timiraos, a senior Fed reporter known as the &#34;new Fed mouthpiece,&#34; wrote that the October rate cut decision triggered strong opposition to a possible December rate cut. In his article, Timiraos emphasizes that the minutes show strong disagreement within the FOMC regarding the policy decision for its next meeting in December. This has made a growing number of Fed policymakers—perhaps a narrow majority—uneasy about a December rate cut. He points out that this is the largest division within the FOMC regarding its next meeting in years. Timiraos notes that the minutes show several Fed officials opposed the October rate cut decision at the time, possibly including some regional Fed presidents who did not have voting rights at FOMC meetings this year. Other officials who supported the rate cut also indicated they could accept inaction, highlighting the severity of the internal divisions within the committee. Timiraos further notes that regardless of the decision at the December meeting, most Fed officials believe further rate cuts are necessary in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储于 11 月 19 日东部时间发布的会议纪要指出：“在讨论货币政策的短期方向时，与会者对美联储委员会（FOMC）12 月会议上最可能的政策决定表达了非常不同的看法。大多数与会者认为，随着委员会逐渐转向更中性的政策立场，进一步降息可能是合适的。” “然而，一些人表示，他们可能不认为在 12 月会议上进一步降息 25 个基点是合适的。一些与会者评估，如果在接下来的两次会议之间的经济发展符合他们的预期，12 月进一步降息可能更为合适。” “许多与会者表示，基于他们的经济展望，维持当前利率至年底可能是合适的。” 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策不是静态的，而是受到各种最新数据、不断变化的经济展望和风险平衡的影响。媒体指出，在美联储会议纪要中常用的所谓计数术语中，“许多” 一词代表的人数少于 “多数/大多数”。因此，上述声明表明，在上一次 FOMC 会议上，反对在 12 月再次降息的人仍然是少数。被称为 “新美联储发言人” 的资深美联储记者 Nick Timiraos 指出，会议纪要提到 “许多” 官员认为 12 月降息没有必要，超过了认为降息更可能的官员人数。然而，大多数官员仍然认为，无论是否在 12 月，都应该在未来进行降息。总的来说，大多数美联储官员认为未来会降息，无论何时。这包括将根据数据决定是否在 12 月降息的中间派；许多人认为今年不需要进一步降息，而一些人认为降息是合适的。反对 12 月降息的阵营并不代表多数，但其人数超过了支持 12 月降息的阵营。FOMC 在 10 月 29 日会议后发布的声明显示，FOMC 决定连续第二次将利率下调 25 个基点，但 12 名投票者中有两名反对这一决定。与以往不同，这次在降息幅度和是否继续降息的问题上存在分歧。在反对者中，特朗普总统挑选的新任州长 Milan 仍希望降息 50 个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席 Schmid 支持维持利率不变。许多人认为，今年的关税增加对整体通胀的影响有限。大多数人认为降息可能加剧通胀风险。美联储内部的鹰派观点在会议纪要中得到了反映，提到在讨论风险管理考虑时，大多数与会者认为 FOMC 转向更中性政策立场将有助于避免劳动市场条件的显著恶化。“许多与会者还认为，考虑到今年关税增加的证据越来越多，可能对整体通胀的影响有限，委员会应适当放宽政策立场，以应对就业的下行风险。” 大多数与会者指出，在持续高通胀和劳动市场缓慢降温的背景下，进一步降息可能加剧持续高通胀的风险，或者可能被误解为对 2% 通胀目标缺乏承诺。一些人担心，如果市场突然重新评估人工智能的前景，可能会出现股市崩盘。会议纪要显示，在讨论金融稳定风险时，一些美联储官员对 “金融市场资产的高估值” 表示担忧。会议纪要指出：“一些与会者评论了金融市场资产高估值的问题，几位与会者强调了股价无序下跌的风险，尤其是如果市场突然重新评估与人工智能（AI）相关技术的前景。” 几位与会者还提到了与高企业债务相关的风险。这些担忧反映出美联储在制定货币政策时，不仅关注通胀和就业，还密切关注金融稳定。几乎一致支持结束资产负债表缩减；许多人支持增加短期债务持有比例。上次会议的 FOMC 声明指出，决定于 12 月 1 日结束资产负债表缩减计划。这意味着自 2022 年 6 月 1 日开始的资产负债表缩减计划将在三年半后结束。美联储的公告显示，在 12 月停止资产负债表缩减后，从美联储的机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）中赎回的本金将再投资于短期美国国债，以替代到期的 MBS 持有。周三发布的会议纪要显示，“几乎所有” 与会者认为在 12 月 1 日停止资产负债表缩减是合适的，换句话说，他们都认为这一决定是可以接受的。一些市场参与者此前担心，美联储延迟停止资产负债表缩减可能导致由于流动性压力而引发隔夜融资利率波动。会议纪要指出，与会者一致认为，近期货币市场条件的收紧表明资产负债表缩减接近尾声。“许多与会者指出，更高比例的短期国债持有将为美联储提供更多灵活性，以应对准备金要求或非准备金负债的变化，从而帮助维持充足的准备金水平。” 被称为 “新美联储发言人” 的资深美联储记者 Nick Timiraos 写道，10 月的降息决定引发了对可能在 12 月降息的强烈反对。在他的文章中，Timiraos 强调，会议纪要显示 FOMC 内部对 12 月下次会议的政策决定存在强烈分歧。这使得越来越多的美联储政策制定者——或许是一个狭窄的多数——对 12 月降息感到不安。他指出，这是多年来 FOMC 对下次会议的最大分歧。Timiraos 指出，会议纪要显示几位美联储官员在当时反对 10 月的降息决定，可能包括一些在今年 FOMC 会议上没有投票权的地区联储主席。支持降息的其他官员也表示，他们可以接受不采取行动，突显出委员会内部分歧的严重性。Timiraos 进一步指出，无论 12 月会议的决定如何，大多数美联储官员认为未来需要进一步降息。</p>
</div>

The Fed meeting minutes revealed serious disagreement: many believed a December rate cut was inappropriate.

- 美联储会议纪要显示，官员对 12 月降息意见分歧。  
- 大多数官员认为未来降息是必要的，但反对降息的少数派人数增加。  
- 会议一致同意于 12 月 1 日结束资产负债表缩减。

美联储会议纪要揭示了严重的分歧：许多与会者认为 12 月降息是不合适的