<div id="readability-page-1">Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to keep interest rates steady at the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year, but economists say he could strike a more dovish tone as the labor market showed mixed signs. Following the delayed release of September's employment data, Bank of America economists said the rising unemployment rate makes a &#34;dovish hold&#34; the most likely outcome for December. The U.S. economy added 119,000 non-farm payrolls, sharply reversing the downwardly revised 4,000 job loss for August, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. &#34;The u-rate rose to 4.440% in Sep from 4.324% in Aug and 4.117% in Jun. This is a substantial pickup,&#34; said Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra. She also noted the surprising 33,000 downward revision to the last two months of data, with August revised down from a 22,000 gain to a 4,000 loss. <h2>A Fed Divided: Hawks vs. Doves</h2> The new data deepens the split within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). According to Bank of America's read, doves on the committee will emphasize the 32-basis-point increase in unemployment over the past three months, viewing it as the clearest indicator of rising labor-market slack. Hawks, on the other hand, may highlight the strong payroll beat, stable income growth and increased labor force participation as evidence that the labor market isn't cooling fast enough to justify another rate cut, especially with inflation still above the 2% target. &#34;The September jobs data won't do much to resolve the disagreement on the FOMC,&#34; Mishra said, suggesting Powell may signal flexibility while keeping rates steady for now. <h2>Markets Align With ‘Dovish Hold' View </h2> &#34;A December cut is still not our base case, but it's a closer call now given the u-rate jump,&#34; Mishra said. &#34;A ‘dovish hold' might be a good compromise for Powell given the mixed bag September report.&#34; Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica, said the September Fed minutes characterized the labor market as undergoing a &#34;very gradual cooling,&#34; but that view looks overly optimistic in light of the latest data. Adams highlighted how policymakers will miss the official November employment report ahead of their next meeting, relying instead on private estimates, just as they did when deciding to cut rates in October. &#34;Payrolls rose more than expected, but the trend still looks modest after downward revisions to July and August,&#34; Adams said. He added that while the Fed has been downplaying the odds of another cut, this report &#34;prods them in the other direction.&#34; Despite lingering concerns over stock market valuations, tariff-driven inflation, and climate-related food price pressures, Comerica now sees a rate cut in December as more likely than not. <h2>What Is The Bond Market Saying? </h2> Rate cut odds for December ticked higher on Thursday, with Fed futures now implying a 37% probability—up from around 25% before the September jobs report. Treasury yields eased modestly in response to the data, with the 2-year yield slipping 3 basis points to 3.56%, while the 10-year yield also fell 3 basis points to 4.11%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF rose 0.3%, on pace to break a two-day losing streak. Read Next: <ul> <li>The Fed Is Split – And A December Rate Cut Moves Further Away</li> </ul> Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney. </div>

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔预计将在今年最后一次美联储会议上维持利率不变，可能会采取温和的语气，因为劳动力市场信号混杂。九月份的就业数据表明，失业率上升至 4.4%，为 2021 年十月以来的最高水平，尽管新增就业人数有所增加。经济学家认为 “温和维持” 的可能性较大，联邦公开市场委员会内部意见分歧。市场对十二月降息的预期增加，国债收益率略微回落

Powell Set For A 'Dovish Hold' In December, Economists Say After Jobs Data

- 美联储主席鲍威尔预计将在年末会议上维持利率不变。  
- 经济学家认为，因就业市场信号混杂，鲍威尔可能采取更温和的语气。  
- 失业率上升至 4.4%，为 2021 年 10 月以来最高，增加了降息的可能性。

经济学家在就业数据公布后表示，鲍威尔将在 12 月采取 ‘鸽派维持’ 的立场