<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>银价今年经历了剧烈波动，几乎翻了一番。然而，一些分析师担心银价将带我们走向失望的道路。他们的看跌情绪基于历史。毕竟，银价在 1980 年和 2011 年都曾让我们期待双重纪录，但随后迅速回落。</p>
<p>因此，市场上存在很多不安情绪，这反映在银价当前的波动性上。一些交易者担心，银价会像 1980 年和 2011 年突破每盎司 48 美元后那样迅速抛售。</p>
<p>历史会重演吗？</p>
<p>Sprott Money 的分析师 Craig Hemke 认为不会。他表示这次 <strong>有所不同</strong>。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“经济、货币和实物的情况与 1980 年和 2011 年完全不同。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Hemke 不认为银价会跟随 1980 年的祖父或 2011 年的父亲的轨迹。他认为当前的走势更像是近几年黄金的轨迹。</p>
<h2>银的历史教训</h2>
<p>那么，1980 年和 2011 年发生了什么？</p>
<p>在这两次情况下，银价迅速突破 48 美元，然后更快地回落。</p>
<p>在 1980 年，银价在短短四个月内从每盎司 10 美元飙升至 48 美元。两个月后，又回到了 10 美元。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/1980-silver-chart-min.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/1980-silver-chart-min.png"/></p>
<p>自 2010 年底以来，银价再次上涨，在八个月内达到 48 美元。但同样，它迅速失去了这些涨幅，仅在几个月内跌至 26 美元。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/2011-silver-chart-min.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/2011-silver-chart-min.png"/></p>
<p>这次看起来确实不同。银价在 10 月 3 日达到了 48 美元，并在接下来的一周首次收于 50 美元以上。它在 48 美元附近短暂整合，几次测试该水平后，最近几周再次上涨。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/silver-2025-chart-min.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/silver-2025-chart-min.png"/></p>
<p>银价能够在这么长时间内保持在 48 美元之上，使得这次上涨与 1980 年和 2011 年的上涨有所不同。</p>
<p>一些人宣称银价今年形成了双顶，这是一个看跌信号。但 Hemke 指出，要确认双顶，银价需要跌破 46 美元。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“在那之前，两个相同水平的峰值表示的是一个交易区间和整合——仅此而已。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>看黄金</h2>
<p>Hemke 认为当前的价格模式与 2023 年和 2024 年黄金的突破更为相似，而不是 1980 年和 2011 年的银牛市。</p>
<p>正如你可能记得的，黄金在 2023 年 12 月终于突破了每盎司 2000 美元的强阻力，并飙升至 2100 美元。然后我们看到了一次急剧的回调。仅仅 17 天后，黄金再次突破 2100 美元，然后再次回落。在接下来的几个月里，黄金在每盎司 2000 美元的区间内震荡，直到 2024 年 3 月再次突破并上涨。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-chart-2022-min.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-chart-2022-min.png"/></p>
<p>当黄金在几周内两次反弹至 2100 美元时，许多专家宣称这是双顶和虚假突破。正如 Hemke 指出的，这些专家被证明是错误的。这仅仅是一个整合和震荡交易的时期。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“黄金价格并没有达到顶峰，而是仅仅在一个整合区间内盘整。真正的突破发生在 2024 年 3 月初的 90 天后。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Hemke 认为银价也有类似的技术形态。他在九月底写道。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“我预计银价在接下来的几周内的走势将与 2023 年 12 月底到 2024 年初的黄金价格走势有些相似。将上涨至 48-50 美元的历史高点，随后急剧回调，并在最终和正式突破之前再进行几次失败的突破尝试。让我们将 2023 年底的黄金图表视为我们的银价类比。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>展望未来，我们可能会看到进一步的整合和横盘交易。但 Hemke 认为银价的真正突破仍在未来。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“这不是 1980 年，也不是 2011 年。银价不会崩溃，也没有刚刚形成双顶。相反，就像两年前的黄金一样，银价正在整合并在其旧的历史高点附近及其上方盘整，真正的突破将在 2026 年初到来。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Hemke 表示，明年的突破可能会将银价推向新的历史高点。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“自 2024 年 3 月突破以来，黄金价格已经翻倍，而银价的类似走势将使价格在 2027 年中后期达到每盎司 100 美元。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>银不够！</h2>
<p>基本面支持 Hemke 的技术分析。供需动态对银价依然极为看涨。</p>
<p>许多分析师声称，去年春天由于关税担忧，银从伦敦转移到纽约，为 10 月份银价的创纪录上涨奠定了基础。随着需求的增加，特别是在印度，交易者争相寻找可用的金属。银从纽约迅速转移到伦敦缓解了紧张局势，但并没有解决根本问题。</p>
<p>并不是说伦敦没有足够的金属。问题在于根本没有足够的金属。</p>
<p>这不是一个可以通过将金属从一个仓库转移到另一个仓库来解决的问题。问题在于需求多年来超过了供应。</p>
<p>根据 Metals Focus 的数据，银市场正面临第五个连续的结构性市场赤字。</p>
<p>Metals Focus 预计今年需求将超过供应 9500 万盎司。这将使五年累计市场赤字达到 8.2 亿盎司，相当于一整年的平均矿产产量。</p>
<p>自 2010 年以来，银市场累计供应赤字超过 5.8 亿盎司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cumulative-silver-deficit--min.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cumulative-silver-deficit--min.png"/></p>
<p>为了弥补供应赤字，银的使用者将不得不从现有的地面库存中提取。这可能需要更高的价格。</p>
<p>美联储转向宽松货币政策和降低利率也可能在未来一年支持银价。</p>
<p>当你将技术面和基本面结合在一起时，没有理由对银价转为看空，尽管 1980 年和 2011 年有过这样的情况。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
<p>印度将允许银作为贷款抵押品</p>
<p>中央银行在十月份再次增加了黄金购买</p>
<p>随着全球供应紧缩，银价创下新高</p>

<p>分析师们正在讨论白银是否会像 1980 年和 2011 年那样崩溃。Craig Hemke 认为，目前的经济状况与那几年不同，暗示白银的价格模式类似于黄金最近的走势。Hemke 预测白银将在 2026 年初前进行整合，可能在 2027 年达到每盎司 100 美元。供需动态依然看涨，支持 Hemke 的分析</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>Silver has taken us on a wild ride, nearly doubling in price this year. However, some analysts worry that silver is taking us down a path of disappointment. They base their bearish sentiment on history. After all, silver teased us with twin records in 1980 and 2011 before quickly selling off both times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价今年经历了剧烈波动，几乎翻了一番。然而，一些分析师担心银价将带我们走向失望的道路。他们的看跌情绪基于历史。毕竟，银价在 1980 年和 2011 年都曾让我们期待双重纪录，但随后迅速回落。</p>
</div><p>As such, there is a lot of jitteriness out there, reflected in silver’s current price volatility. Some traders are concerned that we will see a rapid selloff of silver as we did after the metal broke $48 an ounce in 1980 and 2011.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市场上存在很多不安情绪，这反映在银价当前的波动性上。一些交易者担心，银价会像 1980 年和 2011 年突破每盎司 48 美元后那样迅速抛售。</p>
</div><p>Will history repeat?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史会重演吗？</p>
</div><p>Sprott Money analyst Craig Hemke doesn’t think so. He says this time <strong>is</strong> different.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sprott Money 的分析师 Craig Hemke 认为不会。他表示这次 <strong>有所不同</strong>。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The situation economically, monetarily, and physically is entirely different from 1980 and 2011.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“经济、货币和实物的情况与 1980 年和 2011 年完全不同。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Hemke doesn’t expect silver to follow Grandfather’s path in the 80s or Pappa’s path in 2011. He thinks the setup looks more like Uncle Gold’s trajectory over the last couple of years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hemke 不认为银价会跟随 1980 年的祖父或 2011 年的父亲的轨迹。他认为当前的走势更像是近几年黄金的轨迹。</p>
</div><h2>A Silver History Lesson</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>银的历史教训</h2>
</div><p>So, what happened in 1980 and 2011?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，1980 年和 2011 年发生了什么？</p>
</div><p>In both cases, silver soared quickly over $48 and then fell back to earth even faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这两次情况下，银价迅速突破 48 美元，然后更快地回落。</p>
</div><p>In 1980, the silver price moved from $10 an ounce to $48 in just four months. Two months later, it was back at $10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1980 年，银价在短短四个月内从每盎司 10 美元飙升至 48 美元。两个月后，又回到了 10 美元。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/1980-silver-chart-min.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/1980-silver-chart-min.png"/></p>
<p>Starting in late 2010, silver rallied again, hitting $48 in eight months. But again, it quickly gave up those gains, falling to $26 in just a few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2010 年底以来，银价再次上涨，在八个月内达到 48 美元。但同样，它迅速失去了这些涨幅，仅在几个月内跌至 26 美元。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/2011-silver-chart-min.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/2011-silver-chart-min.png"/></p>
<p>This time does look different. Silver hit $48 on October 3 and closed above $50 for the first time the following week. It consolidated briefly around $48, testing the level several times before taking off again in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这次看起来确实不同。银价在 10 月 3 日达到了 48 美元，并在接下来的一周首次收于 50 美元以上。它在 48 美元附近短暂整合，几次测试该水平后，最近几周再次上涨。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/silver-2025-chart-min.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/silver-2025-chart-min.png"/></p>
<p>The fact that silver has held $48 this long differentiates this rally from those in 1980 and 2011.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价能够在这么长时间内保持在 48 美元之上，使得这次上涨与 1980 年和 2011 年的上涨有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Some have declared that silver has charted a double top this year, a bearish indicator. But Hemke points out that to confirm a double top, silver would need to fall through $46.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些人宣称银价今年形成了双顶，这是一个看跌信号。但 Hemke 指出，要确认双顶，银价需要跌破 46 美元。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Until then, two peaks at the same level denote a trading range and consolidation—nothing more.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“在那之前，两个相同水平的峰值表示的是一个交易区间和整合——仅此而已。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Look at Gold</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看黄金</h2>
</div><p>Hemke believes the price pattern playing out is similar to gold’s breakout in 2023 and 2024 than the silver bull markets in 1980 and 2011.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hemke 认为当前的价格模式与 2023 年和 2024 年黄金的突破更为相似，而不是 1980 年和 2011 年的银牛市。</p>
</div><p>As you might recall, gold finally cracked strong resistance at $2,000 an ounce in December 2023 and surged to $2,100. Then we saw a sharp reversal. Just 17 days later, gold eclipsed $2,100 again before once again selling off. Over the next several months, gold was rangebound in the $2,000 an ounce range before breaking out and surging higher again in March 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你可能记得的，黄金在 2023 年 12 月终于突破了每盎司 2000 美元的强阻力，并飙升至 2100 美元。然后我们看到了一次急剧的回调。仅仅 17 天后，黄金再次突破 2100 美元，然后再次回落。在接下来的几个月里，黄金在每盎司 2000 美元的区间内震荡，直到 2024 年 3 月再次突破并上涨。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-chart-2022-min.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-chart-2022-min.png"/></p>
<p>When gold bounced off $2,100 twice in a matter of weeks, a lot of experts declared it a double top and false breakout. As Hemke pointed out, these experts were proven wrong. It was merely a period of consolidation and range-bound trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当黄金在几周内两次反弹至 2100 美元时，许多专家宣称这是双顶和虚假突破。正如 Hemke 指出的，这些专家被证明是错误的。这仅仅是一个整合和震荡交易的时期。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The gold price had not topped and, instead, was simply basing in a consolidation range. The true breakout came 90 days later in early March of 2024.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“黄金价格并没有达到顶峰，而是仅仅在一个整合区间内盘整。真正的突破发生在 2024 年 3 月初的 90 天后。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Hemke believes there is a similar technical setup for silver. He wrote this in late September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hemke 认为银价也有类似的技术形态。他在九月底写道。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“I expect the price action in silver over the next few weeks to somewhat mirror the gold price action seen in late December 2023 into early 2024. A rally to the $48-50 all-time highs, a sharp reversal, and a few more failed attempts at a breakout before the final and official breakout occurs. Let's refer to that gold chart from late 2023 as our silver analog.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“我预计银价在接下来的几周内的走势将与 2023 年 12 月底到 2024 年初的黄金价格走势有些相似。将上涨至 48-50 美元的历史高点，随后急剧回调，并在最终和正式突破之前再进行几次失败的突破尝试。让我们将 2023 年底的黄金图表视为我们的银价类比。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Looking ahead, we may well see further consolidation and a period of sideways trading. But Hemke believes the true breakout for silver remains in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，我们可能会看到进一步的整合和横盘交易。但 Hemke 认为银价的真正突破仍在未来。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“t is not 1980 and it's not 2011 either. The silver price is not about to collapse, and it did not just paint a double top. Instead, just like gold two years ago, the silver price is consolidating and basing near and just above its old all-time highs with the true breakout pending for early 2026.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“这不是 1980 年，也不是 2011 年。银价不会崩溃，也没有刚刚形成双顶。相反，就像两年前的黄金一样，银价正在整合并在其旧的历史高点附近及其上方盘整，真正的突破将在 2026 年初到来。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Hemke says a breakout next year will likely push silver to new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hemke 表示，明年的突破可能会将银价推向新的历史高点。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The gold price has doubled since it broke out in March of 2024, and a similar move in silver will take price to $100/ounce by mid-late 2027.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“自 2024 年 3 月突破以来，黄金价格已经翻倍，而银价的类似走势将使价格在 2027 年中后期达到每盎司 100 美元。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Not Enough Silver!</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>银不够！</h2>
</div><p>The fundamentals support Hemke's technical analysis. Supply and demand dynamics remain extremely bullish for silver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基本面支持 Hemke 的技术分析。供需动态对银价依然极为看涨。</p>
</div><p>Many analysts claim the movement of silver from London to New York last spring, due to tariff worries, set the stage for the record run by silver in October. As demand picked up, particularly in India, traders scrambled to find available metal. A rapid shift of silver from New York to London eased the squeeze, but it didn't solve the underlying problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多分析师声称，去年春天由于关税担忧，银从伦敦转移到纽约，为 10 月份银价的创纪录上涨奠定了基础。随着需求的增加，特别是在印度，交易者争相寻找可用的金属。银从纽约迅速转移到伦敦缓解了紧张局势，但并没有解决根本问题。</p>
</div><p>It's not that there's not enough metal in London. The problem is there isn't enough metal, period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>并不是说伦敦没有足够的金属。问题在于根本没有足够的金属。</p>
</div><p>This isn’t a problem that can be solved by moving metal from one warehouse to another. The issue is that demand has outstripped supply for several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不是一个可以通过将金属从一个仓库转移到另一个仓库来解决的问题。问题在于需求多年来超过了供应。</p>
</div><p>According to Metals Focus, silver is on track for its fifth straight structural market deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Metals Focus 的数据，银市场正面临第五个连续的结构性市场赤字。</p>
</div><p>Metals Focus projects demand will outstrip supply by 95 million ounces this year. That would bring the cumulative 5-year market deficit to 820 million ounces, an entire year of average mine output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Metals Focus 预计今年需求将超过供应 9500 万盎司。这将使五年累计市场赤字达到 8.2 亿盎司，相当于一整年的平均矿产产量。</p>
</div><p>Since 2010, the silver market has accumulated a supply deficit of over 580 million ounces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2010 年以来，银市场累计供应赤字超过 5.8 亿盎司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cumulative-silver-deficit--min.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cumulative-silver-deficit--min.png"/></p>
<p>To make up the supply deficit, silver users will have to draw from existing above-ground stocks. That will likely require higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了弥补供应赤字，银的使用者将不得不从现有的地面库存中提取。这可能需要更高的价格。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve's pivot to easy money and lower interest rates will also likely support silver in the year ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储转向宽松货币政策和降低利率也可能在未来一年支持银价。</p>
</div><p>When you put the technicals and fundamentals together, there is no reason to turn bearish on silver, 1980 and 2011 notwithstanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当你将技术面和基本面结合在一起时，没有理由对银价转为看空，尽管 1980 年和 2011 年有过这样的情况。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
</div><p>India To Allow Silver As Loan Collateral</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度将允许银作为贷款抵押品</p>
</div><p>Central Banks Ramped Up Gold Purchases Again In October</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行在十月份再次增加了黄金购买</p>
</div><p>Silver Scales New Highs As Global Supplies Tighten</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着全球供应紧缩，银价创下新高</p>
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白银是否会重演 1980 年和 2011 年的崩盘？