<p>TradingKey – 美联储于美国东部时间 12 月 10 日如预期将利率下调 25 个基点，决议以 9-3 的投票结果通过。这是六年来首次有三位官员表示异议，其中两位反对降息，新任美联储理事 Smirlan 支持更大幅度的降息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-Disagreement-506ffde39c714634a1d5b60f25cbc727.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1286" height="1246" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-Disagreement-506ffde39c714634a1d5b60f25cbc727.jpg"/></p>
<p>[美联储内部异议概述，来源：美联储]</p>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔多次表示，某种程度的分歧是正常的。他强调，这些分歧主要集中在两个关键风险的相对权重和政策调整的节奏上。这种深入、尊重的辩论对美联储做出最佳决策至关重要，因此，这不会限制下次会议的任何政策选项，也不会产生任何先入为主的结果。</p>
<p>尽管降息符合市场预期，但投资者更关注美联储对明年利率的隐含指引。</p>
<p>鲍威尔指出，经过重复计算后，自四月以来，职位增长可能略微为负。他暗示劳动力市场可能比最初预期的要疲软。值得注意的是，鲍威尔在过去两次降息中越来越重视劳动力市场疲软的影响。</p>
<p>此外，鲍威尔表示，没有人将加息视为基线预期。反对降息的异议票数并未超过市场预期，鲍威尔的言论也比预期的 “鹰派” 程度低。这为市场注入了信心，同时为 2026 年的潜在降息定下了基调。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-dot-matrix-dd39f17d6d714b9186c5e861a267e1b0.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1600" height="1182" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-dot-matrix-dd39f17d6d714b9186c5e861a267e1b0.jpg"/></p>
<p>[美联储点阵图，来源：美联储]</p>
<p>华尔街普遍预计，美联储将在 2026 年大幅降息，降幅远超点阵图所示的 25 个基点。这一观点基于对工资增长减弱的预期，以及在 2026 年上半年几乎没有通胀反弹迹象。</p>
<p>因此，2026 年降息的路径仍然是市场共识，表明主流市场观点显著偏向鸽派，至少在美国劳工部下周发布 10 月和 11 月就业数据之前。</p>
<p>需要注意的是，美联储仍在考虑通胀和就业市场哪个更具担忧。如果未来几个月的就业数据没有显示出显著疲软，1 月 FOMC 会议上不太可能进行基准利率调整。</p>
<p>其次，尽管通胀仍然高企，但当前数据并未显示出持续上升的迹象，而是相对稳定。与持续的劳动力市场疲软相比，就业数据的质量仍然是指导美联储是否降息的主导因素。</p>
<p>此外，在回答有关准备金水平和货币市场紧张的问题时，鲍威尔澄清，恢复资产负债表购买属于技术性准备金管理，而非量化宽松。他重申，这些准备金管理购买（RMP）的目的是维持充足的准备金水平，防范季节性流动性波动（如 2026 年 4 月 15 日的税日冲击），并支持长期经济扩张的需求，与货币政策放松 “完全分开”。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

<p>美联储将利率下调 25 个基点，投票结果为 9 票赞成、3 票反对，显示出内部显著的分歧。美联储主席鲍威尔强调了辩论在决策中的重要性。投资者关注美联储对 2026 年的指引，预计由于工资增长疲软和通胀稳定，将进一步降息。鲍威尔澄清了储备管理与货币政策宽松是分开的。美联储的决定取决于即将发布的就业数据和通胀担忧</p>

<p>TradingKey – The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, US Eastern Time, as widely anticipated, with the resolution passing by a 9-3 vote. This marked the first time in six years that three officials dissented, with two arguing against a rate cut and newly appointed Fed Governor Smirlan favoring a larger reduction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey – 美联储于美国东部时间 12 月 10 日如预期将利率下调 25 个基点，决议以 9-3 的投票结果通过。这是六年来首次有三位官员表示异议，其中两位反对降息，新任美联储理事 Smirlan 支持更大幅度的降息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-Disagreement-506ffde39c714634a1d5b60f25cbc727.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-Disagreement-506ffde39c714634a1d5b60f25cbc727.jpg"/></p>
<p>[Fed Internal Dissent Overview, Source: Federal Reserve]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[美联储内部异议概述，来源：美联储]</p>
</div><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that a certain degree of disagreement is normal. He emphasized that these differences primarily center on the relative weighting of two key risks and the pacing of policy adjustments. Such thorough, respectful debate is crucial for the Fed to make optimal decisions, and therefore, it will not constrain any policy options for the next meeting, nor will it create any preconceived outcomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔多次表示，某种程度的分歧是正常的。他强调，这些分歧主要集中在两个关键风险的相对权重和政策调整的节奏上。这种深入、尊重的辩论对美联储做出最佳决策至关重要，因此，这不会限制下次会议的任何政策选项，也不会产生任何先入为主的结果。</p>
</div><p>While the rate cut met market expectations, investors focused more on the Fed's implicit guidance for next year's interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管降息符合市场预期，但投资者更关注美联储对明年利率的隐含指引。</p>
</div><p>Powell indicated that, after accounting for duplicate counting, job growth might have been slightly negative since April. He suggested the labor market could be weaker than initially projected. Notably, Powell has increasingly weighed the impact of labor market weakness during the past two rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔指出，经过重复计算后，自四月以来，职位增长可能略微为负。他暗示劳动力市场可能比最初预期的要疲软。值得注意的是，鲍威尔在过去两次降息中越来越重视劳动力市场疲软的影响。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Powell stated that no one anticipates a rate hike as a baseline expectation. The number of dissenting votes against the cut did not exceed market expectations, and Powell's remarks were less &#34;hawkish&#34; than anticipated. This injected confidence into the market and simultaneously set the tone for potential rate cuts in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，鲍威尔表示，没有人将加息视为基线预期。反对降息的异议票数并未超过市场预期，鲍威尔的言论也比预期的 “鹰派” 程度低。这为市场注入了信心，同时为 2026 年的潜在降息定下了基调。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-dot-matrix-dd39f17d6d714b9186c5e861a267e1b0.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251211/FED-dot-matrix-dd39f17d6d714b9186c5e861a267e1b0.jpg"/></p>
<p>[FED Dot Plot, Source: Federal Reserve]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[美联储点阵图，来源：美联储]</p>
</div><p>Wall Street widely projects that the Fed will cut rates by significantly more than the 25 basis points indicated by the dot plot in 2026. This view is based on expectations of weakening wage growth and little sign of an inflation rebound in the first half of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街普遍预计，美联储将在 2026 年大幅降息，降幅远超点阵图所示的 25 个基点。这一观点基于对工资增长减弱的预期，以及在 2026 年上半年几乎没有通胀反弹迹象。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the path for rate cuts in 2026 remains the market consensus, indicating a significantly more dovish mainstream market view, at least until the U.S. Labor Department releases October and November employment data next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，2026 年降息的路径仍然是市场共识，表明主流市场观点显著偏向鸽派，至少在美国劳工部下周发布 10 月和 11 月就业数据之前。</p>
</div><p>It should be noted that the Fed is still deliberating whether inflation or the job market poses a greater concern. If employment data in the coming months does not show significant weakening, a benchmark interest rate adjustment is unlikely at the January FOMC meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意的是，美联储仍在考虑通胀和就业市场哪个更具担忧。如果未来几个月的就业数据没有显示出显著疲软，1 月 FOMC 会议上不太可能进行基准利率调整。</p>
</div><p>Secondly, despite inflation remaining elevated, current data does not indicate a sustained increase but rather relative stability. Compared to persistent labor market weakness, the quality of employment data remains the dominant factor guiding the Fed's decision on whether to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，尽管通胀仍然高企，但当前数据并未显示出持续上升的迹象，而是相对稳定。与持续的劳动力市场疲软相比，就业数据的质量仍然是指导美联储是否降息的主导因素。</p>
</div><p>In addition, when addressing questions about reserve levels and money market tensions, Powell clarified that the resumption of balance sheet purchases constitutes technical reserve management, not quantitative easing. He reiterated that these Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) aim to maintain ample reserve levels, guard against seasonal liquidity fluctuations (such as the April 15, 2026 tax day shock), and support long-term economic expansion needs, remaining &#34;completely separate&#34; from monetary policy easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，在回答有关准备金水平和货币市场紧张的问题时，鲍威尔澄清，恢复资产负债表购买属于技术性准备金管理，而非量化宽松。他重申，这些准备金管理购买（RMP）的目的是维持充足的准备金水平，防范季节性流动性波动（如 2026 年 4 月 15 日的税日冲击），并支持长期经济扩张的需求，与货币政策放松 “完全分开”。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

2026 年是降息还是加息？以下是美联储在今天的联邦公开市场委员会会议上所传达的信号