<p>量子计算已经取得了一些进展，但还没有达到能够对比特币网络及相关钱包构成威胁的程度。</p>
<p>根据 Blockstream 的首席执行官亚当·巴克（Adam Back）所说，目前的量子计算机无法使比特币崩溃。</p>
<p>他驳斥了一篇声称唯一能将比特币从 87,000 美元崩溃到 3 美元的原因是能够破解钱包和整个网络的量子计算机的帖子。</p>
<p>上个月，巴克表示，量子计算机在未来 20 到 40 年内才能稳定并对比特币构成威胁。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-163226.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-163226.png"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>不过，在风险变得真实之前，网络可能已经安全。事实上，Blockstream 的研究人员已经在开发将比特币网络升级为量子安全网络的提案。</p>
<p>然而，并不是每个人都认为这一威胁距离我们还有二十年。</p>
<h2>为什么量子安全的比特币是紧迫的</h2>
<p>或许，关于量子计算风险最直言不讳的投资者是 Capriole Investments 的首席执行官查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）。根据他的说法，今年比特币在价格表现上落后于黄金，正是因为这种风险。</p>
<p>他补充说，最佳解决方案是在 2026 年达成共识，使比特币网络具备抗量子攻击的能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-165123.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-165123.png"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>从某种角度来看，量子计算机与当前的经典计算机不同，因为它们利用所谓的量子比特（qubits），而不是典型的基于 0 和 1 操作的固态芯片。然而，目前它们的创建、扩展和防止错误（如过热）都非常困难。</p>
<p>到目前为止，IBM 有一个约 1000 个量子比特的工作原型，而谷歌和微软分别实现了 50 个和 8 个量子比特。可惜的是，错误率极高。</p>
<p>要破解当前的比特币加密，量子计算机必须至少具备 2500 个逻辑稳定的量子比特，并且能够连续运行数天而不出错。这就是为什么像亚当·巴克这样的专家将这一威胁视为长期问题，而不是立即或中期风险。</p>
<h2>比特币持有者寻求相对安全</h2>
<p>事实上，推动量子计算机的顶级公司如果在没有适当保护措施的情况下开发出量子计算机，将面临风险。基于这一前提，即使是 Strategy 的创始人迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）也淡化了量子计算机对比特币构成的中期威胁。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“谷歌和微软不会向你出售能够破解现代加密的量子计算机，因为这会摧毁他们、美国政府和银行系统。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>与此同时，一些顶级持有者已经从最新格式（taproot，紫色）迁移到更具抗性的比特币地址（Segwit，蓝色）。</p>
<p>根据比特币分析师威利·吴（Willy Woo）的说法，如果地址不被重复使用，Segwit 可以减少 “量子长程攻击”。</p>
<p>自 2024 年以来，Segwit 地址的数量一直在增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Glassnode-Bitcoin-quantum.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Glassnode-Bitcoin-quantum.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>加密专家认为，量子计算机可能需要几十年才能破解比特币网络。</em></li>
<li><em>一些投资者已经迁移到相对安全的 Segwit 地址。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

<p>Blockstream 的首席执行官亚当·巴克（Adam Back）驳斥了关于量子计算机可能会迅速崩溃比特币的说法。他认为，目前的量子技术尚不够先进，无法威胁比特币网络。虽然像查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）这样的人将量子威胁视为紧迫问题，但巴克认为，量子计算机要真正构成风险还需要 20 到 40 年。目前正在进行努力，使比特币具备抗量子攻击的能力，一些投资者已经开始转向更安全的比特币地址</p>

<p>Quantum computing has made some progress, but not to the extent that it could pose a threat to the Bitcoin network and related wallets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算已经取得了一些进展，但还没有达到能够对比特币网络及相关钱包构成威胁的程度。</p>
</div><p>According to Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a cypherpunk who was once mistaken for Satoshi, quantum computers right now can’t crash BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Blockstream 的首席执行官亚当·巴克（Adam Back）所说，目前的量子计算机无法使比特币崩溃。</p>
</div><p>He discredited a post that claimed that the only thing that could crash BTC by 99% from $87k to $3 is a quantum computer capable of cracking wallets and the entire network.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他驳斥了一篇声称唯一能将比特币从 87,000 美元崩溃到 3 美元的原因是能够破解钱包和整个网络的量子计算机的帖子。</p>
</div><p>Last month, Back said that quantum computers could only become stable and pose a threat to BTC in the next 20-40 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月，巴克表示，量子计算机在未来 20 到 40 年内才能稳定并对比特币构成威胁。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-163226.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-163226.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>Still, the network could be secure by the time the risk becomes real. In fact, Blockstream researchers are already developing proposals for upgrading the Bitcoin network to a quantum-secure one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，在风险变得真实之前，网络可能已经安全。事实上，Blockstream 的研究人员已经在开发将比特币网络升级为量子安全网络的提案。</p>
</div><p>However, not everyone believes the threat is two decades away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，并不是每个人都认为这一威胁距离我们还有二十年。</p>
</div><h2>Why quantum-secure BTC is urgent</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么量子安全的比特币是紧迫的</h2>
</div><p>Perhaps one of the most vocal investors about the risks of quantum computing is Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investments. According to him, BTC has lagged behind gold in terms of price performance this year because of the risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许，关于量子计算风险最直言不讳的投资者是 Capriole Investments 的首席执行官查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）。根据他的说法，今年比特币在价格表现上落后于黄金，正是因为这种风险。</p>
</div><p>The best solution, he added, is to reach a consensus in 2026 and make the Bitcoin network quantum-resistant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，最佳解决方案是在 2026 年达成共识，使比特币网络具备抗量子攻击的能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-165123.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-15-165123.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>For perspective, quantum computers differ from current classical computers because they utilize the so-called qubits instead of typical solid-state chips that operate on 0 and 1. However, they are currently difficult to create, scale, and shield from errors (such as overheating).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从某种角度来看，量子计算机与当前的经典计算机不同，因为它们利用所谓的量子比特（qubits），而不是典型的基于 0 和 1 操作的固态芯片。然而，目前它们的创建、扩展和防止错误（如过热）都非常困难。</p>
</div><p>So far, IBM has a working prototype with about 1000 qubits, while Google and Microsoft have managed 50 and 8 qubits, respectively. Alas, the error rates have been extremely high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，IBM 有一个约 1000 个量子比特的工作原型，而谷歌和微软分别实现了 50 个和 8 个量子比特。可惜的是，错误率极高。</p>
</div><p>To crack the current Bitcoin cryptography, a quantum computer must have at least 2,500 logical and stable qubits that can operate for days without errors. That’s why experts like Adam Back view the threat as a long-term issue, rather than an immediate or mid-term risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要破解当前的比特币加密，量子计算机必须至少具备 2500 个逻辑稳定的量子比特，并且能够连续运行数天而不出错。这就是为什么像亚当·巴克这样的专家将这一威胁视为长期问题，而不是立即或中期风险。</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin holders seek relative security</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币持有者寻求相对安全</h2>
</div><p>In fact, most of the top firms that are pushing for quantum computers will be at risk if they develop one without proper safeguards.Based on this premise, even Strategy founder Michael Saylor has downplayed the mid-term threats posed by quantum computers to Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，推动量子计算机的顶级公司如果在没有适当保护措施的情况下开发出量子计算机，将面临风险。基于这一前提，即使是 Strategy 的创始人迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）也淡化了量子计算机对比特币构成的中期威胁。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Google and Microsoft won’t sell you a quantum computer that cracks modern cryptography because it’ll destroy them, the US government, and the banking system.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“谷歌和微软不会向你出售能够破解现代加密的量子计算机，因为这会摧毁他们、美国政府和银行系统。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>In the meantime, some top holders are already migrating to more resistant Bitcoin addresses (Segwit, blue) from the latest format (taproot, purple).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，一些顶级持有者已经从最新格式（taproot，紫色）迁移到更具抗性的比特币地址（Segwit，蓝色）。</p>
</div><p>According to BTC analyst Willy Woo, Segwit reduces “quantum long range attacks” if the address is not reused.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据比特币分析师威利·吴（Willy Woo）的说法，如果地址不被重复使用，Segwit 可以减少 “量子长程攻击”。</p>
</div><p>The number of Segwit addresses has been increasing since 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2024 年以来，Segwit 地址的数量一直在增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Glassnode-Bitcoin-quantum.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Glassnode-Bitcoin-quantum.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Cryptography experts believe that it could take decades for quantum computers to crack the Bitcoin network.</em></li>
<li><em>Some investors have already migrated to relatively secure Segwit addresses.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>加密专家认为，量子计算机可能需要几十年才能破解比特币网络。</em></li>
<li><em>一些投资者已经迁移到相对安全的 Segwit 地址。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

Adam Back 驳斥了可能导致比特币市场崩溃的量子计算恐惧、疑虑和不确定性（FUD）