<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4386419/pexels-photo-4386419.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4386419/pexels-photo-4386419.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>美联储正在争论通货膨胀……就好像他们知道自己在说什么一样。</p>
<p>根据特朗普团队的说法，通货膨胀已经被击败。特朗普总统的经济顾问之一，斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）认为，“基于市场的” 通货膨胀实际上接近 2%，尽管官方的通货膨胀指标（消费者价格指数 CPI 和个人消费支出 PCE）接近 3%。他公开呼吁美联储将利率下调 0.5%，而不是通常的 0.2%。</p>
<p>相比之下，许多其他美联储官员担心通货膨胀并没有得到控制。他们指出无数指标表明通货膨胀并没有达到美联储所偏好的 2% 的目标。事实上，通货膨胀压力在数据中正在_扩大_，几乎一半（47%）的核心个人消费支出组成部分的年同比增幅超过 3%。</p>
<p>这怎么可能？两组聪明的人如何能对同一数据有如此不同的看法？</p>
<p>答案是 <strong>美国的通货膨胀数据是一场笑话，已经持续多年。</strong> 因此，美联储当前的通货膨胀辩论基本上是一群白领知识分子在争论他们对像牙仙子这样的虚构实体的解读。</p>
<p>关于通货膨胀数据的一些更严重的问题：</p>
<ol>
<li>住房的测量是数据中最大的组成部分，这些数据是美联储发明的_估算_，而不是基于市场的测量。</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>数据不包括食品或能源价格，因为毕竟，谁真的需要这些来生存呢？</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>数据经过如此处理和修饰，以至于声称医疗保险成本每年仅上涨 2%-5%。我还没有遇到过一个人，他们的保险成本上涨得如此缓慢。</li>
</ol>
<p>等等。</p>
<p>现实是，美国的所有通货膨胀数据都是为了做一件事：<strong>低估真实的通货膨胀率，以掩盖美国生活水平在几十年来的下降。</strong></p>
<p>这个事实每天都在我们面前，但媒体或美联储中没有人有体面地公开承认这一点。</p>
<p>在 1950 年代，大多数家庭只需一位家长工作就能过得很好。如今，通常两位家长都工作，并且家庭还有抵押贷款、信用卡债务、汽车贷款和可能的学生贷款。</p>
<p>如果通货膨胀接近声称的水平，上述情况是_不可能_的。</p>
<p>现实是，自 1970 年代以来，美国的真实生活成本相对于收入已经飙升。因此，当美联储官员在公开场合辩论通货膨胀时，<strong>他们基本上是在辩论一个与现实没有任何联系的虚构数字。</strong></p>
<p>我知道这一点。你也知道。市场也知道。</p>
<p>人们喜欢指出股票作为信号，表明今天每个人的财富比二十年前更富有。根据图表，标准普尔 500 指数在此期间上涨了超过 400%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216251.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="620" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216251.png"/></p>
<p>然而，股票是以美元定价的。由于通货膨胀的真实状态，<strong>在此期间，美元的购买力已经损失了超过 40%。</strong> 当你以黄金为基准定价股票时，标准普尔 500 指数实际上自 2006 年以来是下跌的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216252.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="620" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216252.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>美联储正在这样做……无论我们是否喜欢。</p>
<p>世界上最重要的市场再次崩溃。</p>
<p>特朗普美联储将引发一场大涨。</p>

<p>美联储正在讨论通货膨胀率，特朗普的顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）与其他美联储官员的观点截然不同。米兰声称基于市场的通货膨胀接近 2%，呼吁降息 0.5%，而其他人则认为通货膨胀超过 3%。文章批评美国的通货膨胀数据具有误导性，认为其低估了真实的通货膨胀，影响了生活水平。文章强调了通货膨胀测量中的差异以及对美元购买力的影响</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4386419/pexels-photo-4386419.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4386419/pexels-photo-4386419.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>The Fed is arguing about inflation… as if they have a clue what they are talking about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储正在争论通货膨胀……就好像他们知道自己在说什么一样。</p>
</div><p>According to Team Trump, inflation has been defeated. One of President Trump’s closest economic advisors, Stephen Miran, has argued that “market-based” inflation is in fact close to 2%, despite the official inflation metrics (Consumer Price Index, CPI and Personal Consumption Expenditures, PCE) being closer to 3%. He is openly calling for the Fed to cut rates by 0.5% instead of the usual 0.2% rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据特朗普团队的说法，通货膨胀已经被击败。特朗普总统的经济顾问之一，斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）认为，“基于市场的” 通货膨胀实际上接近 2%，尽管官方的通货膨胀指标（消费者价格指数 CPI 和个人消费支出 PCE）接近 3%。他公开呼吁美联储将利率下调 0.5%，而不是通常的 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>By way of contrast, numerous other Fed officials are concerned that inflation is NOT tamed. They point to countless metrics which indicate inflation has NOT hit the Fed’s preferred target of 2%. In fact, if anything, inflationary pressures are <em>broadening</em> in the data with nearly HALF (47%) of the components that make up the Core-PCE clocking in at over 3% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，许多其他美联储官员担心通货膨胀并没有得到控制。他们指出无数指标表明通货膨胀并没有达到美联储所偏好的 2% 的目标。事实上，通货膨胀压力在数据中正在_扩大_，几乎一半（47%）的核心个人消费支出组成部分的年同比增幅超过 3%。</p>
</div><p>How is this possible? How can two sets of intelligent people have such different views over the same data?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这怎么可能？两组聪明的人如何能对同一数据有如此不同的看法？</p>
</div><p>The answer is that <strong>the inflation data in the U.S. is a joke and has been for years.</strong> So, the current inflation debate at the Fed is basically a bunch of white-collar intellectuals arguing over their interpretation of imaginary entity like the tooth fairy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>答案是 <strong>美国的通货膨胀数据是一场笑话，已经持续多年。</strong> 因此，美联储当前的通货膨胀辩论基本上是一群白领知识分子在争论他们对像牙仙子这样的虚构实体的解读。</p>
</div><p>Some of the more egregious issues with the inflation data:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于通货膨胀数据的一些更严重的问题：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>The measures for shelter, which are the single largest component of the data, are <em>estimates</em> that the Fed invented, NOT market-based measures.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>住房的测量是数据中最大的组成部分，这些数据是美联储发明的_估算_，而不是基于市场的测量。</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>The data doesn’t include food or energy prices, because after all, who actually needs those to survive?</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>数据不包括食品或能源价格，因为毕竟，谁真的需要这些来生存呢？</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>The data is so massaged and gimmicked that it claims healthcare insurance costs only rise 2%-5% per year. I’ve yet to meet a single person whose insurance costs rise that slowly.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>数据经过如此处理和修饰，以至于声称医疗保险成本每年仅上涨 2%-5%。我还没有遇到过一个人，他们的保险成本上涨得如此缓慢。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>And on and on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>等等。</p>
</div><p>The reality is that ALL of the inflation data is in the U.S. is designed to do one thing: <strong>understate the true rate of inflation to hide the fact that living standards have declined in the U.S. for decades.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现实是，美国的所有通货膨胀数据都是为了做一件事：<strong>低估真实的通货膨胀率，以掩盖美国生活水平在几十年来的下降。</strong></p>
</div><p>This fact stares all of us in the face every day, but no one in the media or at the Fed has the decency to admit it publicly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个事实每天都在我们面前，但媒体或美联储中没有人有体面地公开承认这一点。</p>
</div><p>In the 1950s most families did fine with one parent working. Today, typically both parents work AND the family has a mortgage, credit card debt, auto loan AND possibly a student loan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1950 年代，大多数家庭只需一位家长工作就能过得很好。如今，通常两位家长都工作，并且家庭还有抵押贷款、信用卡债务、汽车贷款和可能的学生贷款。</p>
</div><p>The above is IMPOSSIBLE if inflation is anywhere near the claimed rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通货膨胀接近声称的水平，上述情况是_不可能_的。</p>
</div><p>The reality is that the true cost of living in the U.S. has skyrocketed relative to incomes in the U.S. at least since the 1970s. So, when Fed officials debate inflation in public, <strong>they’re basically debating an imaginary number that has no connection to reality.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现实是，自 1970 年代以来，美国的真实生活成本相对于收入已经飙升。因此，当美联储官员在公开场合辩论通货膨胀时，<strong>他们基本上是在辩论一个与现实没有任何联系的虚构数字。</strong></p>
</div><p>I know this. You know it. And the markets know it as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我知道这一点。你也知道。市场也知道。</p>
</div><p>People like to point to stocks as signaling that everyone is wealthier today than they were two decades ago. According to the charts, the S&amp;P 500 is up over 400% during that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们喜欢指出股票作为信号，表明今天每个人的财富比二十年前更富有。根据图表，标准普尔 500 指数在此期间上涨了超过 400%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216251.png" alt="" original-src="https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216251.png"/></p>
<p>However, stocks are priced in the U.S. dollar. And thanks to the true state of inflation, <strong>the U.S. dollar has lost over 40% of its purchasing power during that time.</strong> When you price stocks in gold, which cannot be devalued, the S&amp;P 500 is actually DOWN since 2006.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股票是以美元定价的。由于通货膨胀的真实状态，<strong>在此期间，美元的购买力已经损失了超过 40%。</strong> 当你以黄金为基准定价股票时，标准普尔 500 指数实际上自 2006 年以来是下跌的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216252.png" alt="" original-src="https://43s.159.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/GPC1216252.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>The Fed Is Doing This… Whether We Like It Or Not</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储正在这样做……无论我们是否喜欢。</p>
</div><p>The Most Important Market In The World Is Breaking Down Again</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界上最重要的市场再次崩溃。</p>
</div><p>The Trump Fed Will Ignite A Melt Up</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普美联储将引发一场大涨。</p>
</div>

美联储在讨论通货膨胀的同时，美国正在崩溃