<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251201_1002_Bitcoins-Sharp-Decline_simple_compose_01kbc2tn78epw88sqwe4kxgm5h.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251201_1002_Bitcoins-Sharp-Decline_simple_compose_01kbc2tn78epw88sqwe4kxgm5h.png"/></p>
<p>Strategy 的股价在本月继续自由下跌，目前徘徊在自去年九月以来的最低水平。尽管标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数创下历史新高，但 MSTR 股票已从 2024 年的最高点下跌超过 70%。</p>
<h2>Strategy 企业净资产价值即将转为负值</h2>
<p>MSTR 股票价格的持续下跌使其面临重大风险，即其企业净资产价值（mNAV）可能在本月内转为负值。</p>
<p>这一数字的计算方法是首先找到公司的企业价值，这通过将其市值与总债务、优先股和少数股权相加，然后从其资产负债表中的现金中减去。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，该公司的市值为 450 亿美元，远低于其资产负债表中的比特币金额。其企业价值为 590 亿美元，略高于其 582 亿美元的比特币持有量。</p>
<p>因此，其比特币持有量有可能超过公司的企业价值。从理论上讲，这样的变化将降低其估值指标；同时也会消除投资该公司的主要理由。</p>
<p>历史上，投资者之所以向 Strategy 投资，是因为其比特币持有量的溢价。这些投资者甚至对其稀释感到满意。</p>
<p>mNAV 倍数的下降意味着公司可能难以筹集额外资金来购买比特币。事实上，在今年七月，管理层发布了指引，承诺如果 mNAV 低于 2.5 倍将不再发行股票。之后，他们改变了政策，并继续发行价值数十亿美元的股票。</p>
<p>MSTR 已成为一家高度稀释的公司，这一过程将继续进行，因为它在市场上的（ATM）发行中仍有超过 120 亿美元的剩余。</p>
<p>TradingView 汇编的数据表明，其流通股数量已从 2021 年的 7700 万股跃升至 2.67 亿股。</p>
<h2>MSTR 股票价格技术面指向更多下行空间</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR-Stock-1-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR-Stock-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>MSTR 股票图表 | 来源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<p>日线图显示，Strategy 的股价在过去几个月中处于强烈的熊市趋势。它已从七月的 455 美元跌至今天的 157 美元。该股票已经跌破 200 日和 50 日移动平均线。</p>
<p>它还跌破了 230 美元的支撑位，这是三月的最低水平，以及 455 美元的双顶形态的颈线。相对强弱指数（RSI）和其他振荡器持续下跌。</p>
<p>因此，MSTR 股票价格的最可能预测是看跌，下一关键目标是 125 美元的 78.6% 回撤位。</p>
<h2>比特币价格技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Price-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Price-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>BTC 价格图表 | 来源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<p>日线图显示，比特币价格已从十月的 126,200 美元暴跌至当前的 86,787 美元。它已经形成了死亡交叉形态，因为 50 日和 200 日移动平均线交叉。</p>
<p>该币形成了一个看跌的旗形模式，由两部分组成：一条垂直线和一个对称三角形模式。因此，比特币价格可能会继续下跌，可能会跌至 80,000 美元的支撑位。</p>
<p>比特币价格的崩溃可能会导致 MSTR 股票在短期内进一步下跌。然而，从长远来看，随着比特币开始反弹，股票可能会回升。</p>
<p>这篇文章最初发布在 Invezz 上，标题为 MSTR 股票面临风险，因为一个关键的 MicroStrategy 指标接近负区间。</p>

MSTR

<p>MicroStrategy（MSTR）的股票自 2024 年峰值以来已暴跌超过 70%，达到自去年九月以来的最低点。该公司的企业价值净资产值（mNAV）接近负值，面临估值风险。MSTR 的股票已跌破关键技术水平，熊市前景瞄准 125 美元。比特币价格的下跌加剧了 MSTR 的下滑，但如果比特币恢复，长期反弹是可能的</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251201_1002_Bitcoins-Sharp-Decline_simple_compose_01kbc2tn78epw88sqwe4kxgm5h.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251201_1002_Bitcoins-Sharp-Decline_simple_compose_01kbc2tn78epw88sqwe4kxgm5h.png"/></p>
<p>The Strategy stock price continued its freefall this month and is now hovering at its lowest level since September last year. MSTR stock has plunged by over 70% from its highest level in 2024, even as the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices jumped to a record high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 的股价在本月继续自由下跌，目前徘徊在自去年九月以来的最低水平。尽管标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数创下历史新高，但 MSTR 股票已从 2024 年的最高点下跌超过 70%。</p>
</div><h2>Strategy enterprise NAV is about to turn negative</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Strategy 企业净资产价值即将转为负值</h2>
</div><p>The ongoing MSTR stock price has put it at a significant risk that its enterprise value net asset value (mNAV) will turn negative as soon as this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSTR 股票价格的持续下跌使其面临重大风险，即其企业净资产价值（mNAV）可能在本月内转为负值。</p>
</div><p>This figure is calculated by first finding the company’s enterprise value, which is done by adding its market capitalization with its total debt, preferred equity, and minority interest, and then subtracting it from the cash in its balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一数字的计算方法是首先找到公司的企业价值，这通过将其市值与总债务、优先股和少数股权相加，然后从其资产负债表中的现金中减去。</p>
</div><p>In this case, the company has a market capitalization of $45 billion, which is much lower than the amount of Bitcoin in its balance sheet. Its enterprise value is $59 billion, which is a few points above its Bitcoin holdings of $58.2 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，该公司的市值为 450 亿美元，远低于其资产负债表中的比特币金额。其企业价值为 590 亿美元，略高于其 582 亿美元的比特币持有量。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, there is a possibility that its Bitcoin holdings will become more than the company’s enterprise value. In theory, such a move would lower its valuation metric; it would also remove the main case for investing in the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，其比特币持有量有可能超过公司的企业价值。从理论上讲，这样的变化将降低其估值指标；同时也会消除投资该公司的主要理由。</p>
</div><p>Historically, investors allocated money in Strategy because of its premium to its Bitcoin holdings. These investors were even comfortable with its dilution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，投资者之所以向 Strategy 投资，是因为其比特币持有量的溢价。这些投资者甚至对其稀释感到满意。</p>
</div><p>The falling mNAV multiple means that the company may struggle to raise additional cash to buy Bitcoin. Indeed, in July this year, the management issued guidance in which it pledged not to issue stock if the mNAV drops below 2.5x. It then changed the policy after that and has gone ahead to issue shares worth billions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>mNAV 倍数的下降意味着公司可能难以筹集额外资金来购买比特币。事实上，在今年七月，管理层发布了指引，承诺如果 mNAV 低于 2.5 倍将不再发行股票。之后，他们改变了政策，并继续发行价值数十亿美元的股票。</p>
</div><p>MSTR has become a highly dilutive company, a process that will continue as it has over $12 billion remaining in its at-the-market (ATM) offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSTR 已成为一家高度稀释的公司，这一过程将继续进行，因为它在市场上的（ATM）发行中仍有超过 120 亿美元的剩余。</p>
</div><p>Data compiled by TradingView shows that its outstanding shares have jumped to 267 million from 77 million in 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingView 汇编的数据表明，其流通股数量已从 2021 年的 7700 万股跃升至 2.67 亿股。</p>
</div><h2>MSTR stock price technicals point to more downside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>MSTR 股票价格技术面指向更多下行空间</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR-Stock-1-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR-Stock-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>MSTR stock chart | Source:</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>MSTR 股票图表 | 来源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the Strategy’s share price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. It has tumbled from a high of $455 in July to $157 today. The stock has already plunged below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，Strategy 的股价在过去几个月中处于强烈的熊市趋势。它已从七月的 455 美元跌至今天的 157 美元。该股票已经跌破 200 日和 50 日移动平均线。</p>
</div><p>It has also moved below the support at $230, its lowest level in March, and the neckline of the double-top pattern at $455. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other oscillators have continued falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还跌破了 230 美元的支撑位，这是三月的最低水平，以及 455 美元的双顶形态的颈线。相对强弱指数（RSI）和其他振荡器持续下跌。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the most likely MSTR stock price forecast is bearish, with the next key target being the 78.6% retracement level at $125.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，MSTR 股票价格的最可能预测是看跌，下一关键目标是 125 美元的 78.6% 回撤位。</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin price technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币价格技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Price-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Price-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>BTC price chart | Source:</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>BTC 价格图表 | 来源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily chart shows that the BTC price has crashed from a high of $126,200 in October to the current $86,787. It has aready formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed each other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，比特币价格已从十月的 126,200 美元暴跌至当前的 86,787 美元。它已经形成了死亡交叉形态，因为 50 日和 200 日移动平均线交叉。</p>
</div><p>The coin has formed a bearish pennant pattern, which is made up of two parts: a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle pattern. Therefore, Bitcoin price will likely continue falling, potentially to the support at $80,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该币形成了一个看跌的旗形模式，由两部分组成：一条垂直线和一个对称三角形模式。因此，比特币价格可能会继续下跌，可能会跌至 80,000 美元的支撑位。</p>
</div><p>A Bitcoin price crash will likely lead to more downside for MSTR stock in the near term. In the long-term, however, the stock will likely rebound as Bitcoin starts its climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币价格的崩溃可能会导致 MSTR 股票在短期内进一步下跌。然而，从长远来看，随着比特币开始反弹，股票可能会回升。</p>
</div><p>The post MSTR stock at risk as a key MicroStrategy metric approaches a negative zone appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章最初发布在 Invezz 上，标题为 MSTR 股票面临风险，因为一个关键的 MicroStrategy 指标接近负区间。</p>
</div>

MSTR 股票面临风险，因为一个关键的 MicroStrategy 指标正在接近负值区域