<p>到 2025 年底，全球金融市场正处于一个关键的转折点。美联储（Fed）已正式结束量化宽松（QT），转向在储备管理下进行资产购买，标志着货币政策从紧缩周期转向宽松周期。到 2025 年 12 月，美联储的资产负债表将约为 6.5 万亿美元，较疫情高峰时的 8.9 万亿美元大幅收缩。美联储现在通过每月购买短期国债（最初约 400 亿美元）来维持充足的储备。这种 “技术性” 的流动性注入，尽管美联储强调这不是量化宽松（QE），但实际上有效地增加了系统内的货币供应，支持了资产价格的上涨。目前的宏观经济环境表明，美联储的联邦基金利率目标区间为 3.5%-3.75%，在 2025 年经历了三次 25 个基点的降息后，已降至自 2022 年以来的最低水平。点阵图显示，预计 2026 年仅会有一次降息，长期中性利率仍保持在约 3%。这反映了美联储在通胀和就业双重任务之间的谨慎平衡：核心个人消费支出（PCE）通胀预计在 2025 年为 3.0%，在 2026 年降至 2.5%，失业率稳定在 4.4%-4.5%。然而，市场定价表明，投资者预计将进一步宽松以应对潜在的经济放缓。流动性概念是理解 2026 年资产价格的关键。当流动性充足时，借贷成本降低，资金流入风险资产，推动股票、贵金属和商品价格上涨；相反，紧缩的流动性则对资产价格施加压力。2025 年，紧缩向宽松流动性的转变迹象已显现：回购市场的压力有所缓解，美联储通过储备管理购买注入资金，以防止 2019 年危机的重演。这类似于游泳池水位上升，导致所有资产 “浮得更高”。历史数据显示，在宽松期间，资产价格通常与基本面同步上涨，即使经济增长适中。利率路径是宽松周期的核心驱动因素。美联储控制短期利率；降息使借贷成本降低，导致企业债务再融资、投资者风险敞口增加和现金收益率降低，推动资金流向股票和实物资产。估值扩张源于以较低折现率计算的未来收益。降息周期已在 2025 年开始，如果在 2026 年继续（即使仅一次），将进一步放大这一效应。美元指数（DXY）已降至约 97.86，较年初高点下跌约 12%。疲软的美元增强了以美元计价资产的吸引力，特别是黄金、白银和商品。尽管美联储的资产负债表扩张被称为 “储备管理”，但市场将其视为流动性注入。从 2025 年 12 月开始，美联储将开始购买短期国债以维持充足的储备。这不是一次性事件：美国政府的巨大赤字、银行的储备需求和市场稳定性需要持续的流动性支持。一旦 “水龙头” 打开，迅速关闭将面临系统性崩溃的风险；因此，宽松周期往往超出预期。历史上，美联储在 2008 年金融危机和 2020 年疫情等事件中通过扩张应对压力。疲软的美元是宽松的副产品。降息降低了持有美元的吸引力，增加的货币供应稀释了购买力。疲软的美元推动股票、黄金、白银和商品价格上涨。例如，黄金和白银以美元计价；贬值的美元需要更多的美元来购买相同数量的金属。本质上，贵金属价格的上涨反映了美元的贬值，而不是金属内在价值的增加。这也是为什么贵金属在货币宽松期间表现特别良好的原因。截至 2025 年 12 月，黄金的价格约为每盎司 4490 美元，年初至今上涨超过 70%；白银的价格约为每盎司 71 美元，涨幅约为 140%。标准普尔 500 指数年初至今上涨约 16%-18%（包括股息约 17.8%）。这些涨幅部分源于对进一步货币宽松的预期。分析师对 2026 年的展望存在分歧：乐观者如高盛预测黄金将达到 4900 美元，一些机构认为其将超过 5000 美元；白银的平均预测为 56-65 美元，极为乐观的预测超过 100 美元。预计股市将出现适度上涨，但波动性增加。然而，这一观点并非没有争议。批评者认为，宽松的货币政策会造成资产泡沫，脱离经济基本面。尽管预计 2025 年经济增长强劲（第三季度 GDP 年化增长 4.3%），但就业放缓和高债务（联邦债务超过 GDP 的 120%）带来了风险。过度宽松可能会重新点燃通胀，迫使美联储逆转政策，导致市场修正。一些分析师警告，尽管流动性注入可能在短期内提振风险资产，但从长远来看，它们加剧了不平等，鼓励投机，并增加了系统脆弱性。历史上，宽松的货币政策往往伴随着泡沫破裂，如 2008 年所见。美联储的 “隐性担保”（Fed Put）是另一种支持。当市场经历剧烈下跌时，美联储通常会通过降息、流动性注入或紧急计划来干预以稳定市场。这源于市场崩溃可能蔓延到信贷、就业、住房和政府财政的风险。当前系统对流动性更加敏感：债务水平创历史新高，市场互联性更强，压力传播更快。因此，重大修正可能会得到政策支持。然而，这并不意味着市场永远不会下跌；这只是表明深度衰退将受到缓冲。2026 年 5 月，美联储主席鲍威尔的任期结束，新领导层通常会将政策基调转向宽松，以刺激经济增长和资产价格，特别是在中期选举之前。这可能进一步强化 “过热经济” 的趋势，并进一步支持资产。将这些因素联系起来：在利率下降、流动性增加、美元疲软和美联储干预准备的环境中，实物资产和风险资产均受益。股票、ETF、黄金和白银等价值储存将吸引资本。这并不意味着会出现直线上涨的趋势：波动性和回调是不可避免的。然而，在充足的流动性下，回调往往会被买入。</p><p>具体资产展望：</p><ul><li>股票市场标准普尔 500 指数在 2025 年表现强劲，预计在 2026 年将继续适度上升。科技股将占主导地位，但价值股和小盘股可能会轮动。风险在于估值已经很高；如果盈利增长放缓，可能会出现修正。分析师预测 2026 年平均增长 10%-15%，但如果流动性持续，超出预期的收益也是可能的。标准普尔 500 指数在 2025 年表现强劲，预计在 2026 年将继续适度上升。科技股将占主导地位，但价值股和小盘股可能会轮动。风险在于估值已经很高，如果盈利增长放缓，可能会出现修正。</li></ul>

<p>2026 年投资展望强调了美国货币政策的转变，联邦储备委员会从量化紧缩转向宽松，资产负债表从 8.9 万亿美元减少到 6.5 万亿美元。美联储每月购买短期国债的目的是维持流动性，支持资产价格。分析师预测黄金可能上涨至 4,900 美元，白银在 56-65 美元之间，标准普尔 500 指数在波动性增加的情况下将实现适度增长。然而，考虑到高额的联邦债务和就业放缓，关于资产泡沫和经济基本面的担忧依然存在</p>

<p>At the end of 2025, global financial markets are at a critical turning point. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially ended quantitative easing (QT) and shifted to asset purchases under reserve management, marking a transition in monetary policy from a tightening cycle to an easing cycle. As of December 2025, the Fed's balance sheet will be approximately $6.5 trillion, a significant contraction from $8.9 trillion at the peak of the pandemic. It is now maintaining ample reserves by purchasing short-term Treasury bonds monthly (initially around $40 billion). This &#34;technical&#34; liquidity injection, while the Fed emphasizes it is not quantitative easing (QE), effectively increases the money supply within the system, supporting asset price increases. The current macroeconomic environment indicates that the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%, which, after three 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. The dot plot shows that only one rate cut is expected in 2026, with the long-term neutral interest rate remaining around 3%. This reflects the Fed's cautious balance between its dual mandate of inflation and employment: core PCE inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2025 and will fall to 2.5% in 2026, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.4%-4.5%. However, market pricing suggests that investors expect further easing to address potential economic slowdown. The concept of liquidity is key to understanding asset prices in 2026. When liquidity is ample, borrowing costs decrease, funds flow into risky assets, driving up stocks, precious metals, and commodities; conversely, tight liquidity puts pressure on asset prices. In 2025, signs of a shift from tight to loose liquidity have emerged: pressure in the repo market has eased, and the Fed is injecting funds through reserve management purchases to prevent a repeat of the 2019 crisis. This is analogous to a rising water level in a pool, causing all assets to &#34;float higher.&#34; Historical data shows that during periods of easing, asset prices often rise in tandem with fundamentals, even with moderate economic growth. The interest rate path is the core driver of the easing cycle. The Fed controls short-term interest rates; rate cuts make borrowing cheaper, leading to corporate debt refinancing, increased investor risk exposure, and lower cash yields, driving funds towards stocks and real assets. Valuation expansion stems from future earnings calculated at lower discount rates. The rate-cutting cycle has already begun in 2025, and if it continues in 2026 (even just once), it will further amplify this effect. The US dollar index (DXY) has fallen to around 97.86, down about 12% from its year-to-date high. A weaker dollar amplifies the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, particularly gold, silver, and commodities. While the Fed's balance sheet expansion is termed &#34;reserve management,&#34; the market views it as a liquidity injection. Starting in December 2025, the Fed will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bonds to maintain ample reserves. This is not a one-off event: the US government's massive deficit, bank reserve needs, and market stability require sustained liquidity support. Once the &#34;tap&#34; is turned on, a rapid shutdown risks systemic collapse; therefore, easing cycles often exceed expectations. Historically, the Fed responded to pressures through expansion during events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. A weak dollar is a byproduct of easing. Interest rate cuts reduce the attractiveness of holding the dollar, and increased money supply dilutes purchasing power. A weak dollar drives up stock, gold, silver, and commodity prices. For example, gold and silver are priced in US dollars; a depreciating dollar requires more dollars to buy the same amount of metal. Essentially, the rise in precious metal prices reflects the depreciation of the dollar, not an increase in the intrinsic value of the metals. This is also why precious metals perform exceptionally well during periods of monetary easing. As of December 2025, gold was priced at approximately $4,490 per ounce, a year-to-date increase of over 70%; silver was priced at approximately $71 per ounce, an increase of approximately 140%. The S&amp;P 500 index rose approximately 16%-18% year-to-date (approximately 17.8% including dividends). These gains are partly due to expectations of further monetary easing. Analysts are divided on their 2026 outlook: optimists like Goldman Sachs predict gold will reach $4,900, with some institutions seeing it above $5,000; silver's average forecast is $56-65, with extremely optimistic forecasts exceeding $100. The stock market is expected to see moderate gains, but with increased volatility. However, this view is not without controversy. Critics argue that loose monetary policy creates asset bubbles, detaching from economic fundamentals. While strong economic growth is projected for 2025 (Q3 GDP annualized at 4.3%), slowing employment and high debt (federal debt exceeding 120% of GDP) pose risks. Excessive easing could reignite inflation, forcing the Fed to reverse course and leading to market corrections. Some analysts warn that while liquidity injections may boost risk assets in the short term, they amplify inequality, encourage speculation, and increase systemic vulnerability in the long term. Historically, loose monetary policies have often been followed by bursting bubbles, as seen in 2008. The Fed's &#34;implicit guarantee&#34; (Fed Put) is another support. When markets experience sharp declines, the Fed often intervenes to stabilize them through interest rate cuts, liquidity injections, or emergency programs. This stems from the risk of market crashes spreading to credit, employment, housing, and government finances. The current system is more sensitive to liquidity: debt levels are at record highs, market interconnectivity is higher, and stresses spread faster. Therefore, significant corrections are likely to be met with policy support. However, this does not mean the market will never fall; it only indicates that a deep recession will be buffered. In May 2026, Fed Chairman Powell's term ends, and the new leadership typically brings a shift in policy tone towards easing to stimulate economic growth and asset prices, especially before the midterm elections. This could reinforce the tendency for &#34;overheated economies&#34; and further support assets. Connecting these factors: In an environment of declining interest rates, increased liquidity, a weak dollar, and Fed intervention preparations, both physical and risk assets benefit. Value stores such as stocks, ETFs, gold, and silver will attract capital. This does not mean a straight upward trend: volatility and pullbacks are inevitable. However, with ample liquidity, pullbacks are often bought into.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2025 年底，全球金融市场正处于一个关键的转折点。美联储（Fed）已正式结束量化宽松（QT），转向在储备管理下进行资产购买，标志着货币政策从紧缩周期转向宽松周期。到 2025 年 12 月，美联储的资产负债表将约为 6.5 万亿美元，较疫情高峰时的 8.9 万亿美元大幅收缩。美联储现在通过每月购买短期国债（最初约 400 亿美元）来维持充足的储备。这种 “技术性” 的流动性注入，尽管美联储强调这不是量化宽松（QE），但实际上有效地增加了系统内的货币供应，支持了资产价格的上涨。目前的宏观经济环境表明，美联储的联邦基金利率目标区间为 3.5%-3.75%，在 2025 年经历了三次 25 个基点的降息后，已降至自 2022 年以来的最低水平。点阵图显示，预计 2026 年仅会有一次降息，长期中性利率仍保持在约 3%。这反映了美联储在通胀和就业双重任务之间的谨慎平衡：核心个人消费支出（PCE）通胀预计在 2025 年为 3.0%，在 2026 年降至 2.5%，失业率稳定在 4.4%-4.5%。然而，市场定价表明，投资者预计将进一步宽松以应对潜在的经济放缓。流动性概念是理解 2026 年资产价格的关键。当流动性充足时，借贷成本降低，资金流入风险资产，推动股票、贵金属和商品价格上涨；相反，紧缩的流动性则对资产价格施加压力。2025 年，紧缩向宽松流动性的转变迹象已显现：回购市场的压力有所缓解，美联储通过储备管理购买注入资金，以防止 2019 年危机的重演。这类似于游泳池水位上升，导致所有资产 “浮得更高”。历史数据显示，在宽松期间，资产价格通常与基本面同步上涨，即使经济增长适中。利率路径是宽松周期的核心驱动因素。美联储控制短期利率；降息使借贷成本降低，导致企业债务再融资、投资者风险敞口增加和现金收益率降低，推动资金流向股票和实物资产。估值扩张源于以较低折现率计算的未来收益。降息周期已在 2025 年开始，如果在 2026 年继续（即使仅一次），将进一步放大这一效应。美元指数（DXY）已降至约 97.86，较年初高点下跌约 12%。疲软的美元增强了以美元计价资产的吸引力，特别是黄金、白银和商品。尽管美联储的资产负债表扩张被称为 “储备管理”，但市场将其视为流动性注入。从 2025 年 12 月开始，美联储将开始购买短期国债以维持充足的储备。这不是一次性事件：美国政府的巨大赤字、银行的储备需求和市场稳定性需要持续的流动性支持。一旦 “水龙头” 打开，迅速关闭将面临系统性崩溃的风险；因此，宽松周期往往超出预期。历史上，美联储在 2008 年金融危机和 2020 年疫情等事件中通过扩张应对压力。疲软的美元是宽松的副产品。降息降低了持有美元的吸引力，增加的货币供应稀释了购买力。疲软的美元推动股票、黄金、白银和商品价格上涨。例如，黄金和白银以美元计价；贬值的美元需要更多的美元来购买相同数量的金属。本质上，贵金属价格的上涨反映了美元的贬值，而不是金属内在价值的增加。这也是为什么贵金属在货币宽松期间表现特别良好的原因。截至 2025 年 12 月，黄金的价格约为每盎司 4490 美元，年初至今上涨超过 70%；白银的价格约为每盎司 71 美元，涨幅约为 140%。标准普尔 500 指数年初至今上涨约 16%-18%（包括股息约 17.8%）。这些涨幅部分源于对进一步货币宽松的预期。分析师对 2026 年的展望存在分歧：乐观者如高盛预测黄金将达到 4900 美元，一些机构认为其将超过 5000 美元；白银的平均预测为 56-65 美元，极为乐观的预测超过 100 美元。预计股市将出现适度上涨，但波动性增加。然而，这一观点并非没有争议。批评者认为，宽松的货币政策会造成资产泡沫，脱离经济基本面。尽管预计 2025 年经济增长强劲（第三季度 GDP 年化增长 4.3%），但就业放缓和高债务（联邦债务超过 GDP 的 120%）带来了风险。过度宽松可能会重新点燃通胀，迫使美联储逆转政策，导致市场修正。一些分析师警告，尽管流动性注入可能在短期内提振风险资产，但从长远来看，它们加剧了不平等，鼓励投机，并增加了系统脆弱性。历史上，宽松的货币政策往往伴随着泡沫破裂，如 2008 年所见。美联储的 “隐性担保”（Fed Put）是另一种支持。当市场经历剧烈下跌时，美联储通常会通过降息、流动性注入或紧急计划来干预以稳定市场。这源于市场崩溃可能蔓延到信贷、就业、住房和政府财政的风险。当前系统对流动性更加敏感：债务水平创历史新高，市场互联性更强，压力传播更快。因此，重大修正可能会得到政策支持。然而，这并不意味着市场永远不会下跌；这只是表明深度衰退将受到缓冲。2026 年 5 月，美联储主席鲍威尔的任期结束，新领导层通常会将政策基调转向宽松，以刺激经济增长和资产价格，特别是在中期选举之前。这可能进一步强化 “过热经济” 的趋势，并进一步支持资产。将这些因素联系起来：在利率下降、流动性增加、美元疲软和美联储干预准备的环境中，实物资产和风险资产均受益。股票、ETF、黄金和白银等价值储存将吸引资本。这并不意味着会出现直线上涨的趋势：波动性和回调是不可避免的。然而，在充足的流动性下，回调往往会被买入。</p>
</div><p>Specific Asset Outlook:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体资产展望：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Equity MarketThe S&amp;P 500 performed strongly in 2025 and is expected to continue its moderate rise in 2026. Technology stocks will dominate, but value stocks and small-cap stocks may rotate. The risk lies in the already high valuations; a correction is possible if earnings growth slows. Analysts predict an average increase of 10%-15% in 2026, but better-than-expected gains are possible if liquidity continues.The S&amp;P 500 performed strongly in 2025 and is expected to continue its moderate rise in 2026. Technology stocks will dominate, but value stocks and small-cap stocks may rotate. The risk is that valuations are already high, and a correction is possible if earnings growth slows.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股票市场标准普尔 500 指数在 2025 年表现强劲，预计在 2026 年将继续适度上升。科技股将占主导地位，但价值股和小盘股可能会轮动。风险在于估值已经很高；如果盈利增长放缓，可能会出现修正。分析师预测 2026 年平均增长 10%-15%，但如果流动性持续，超出预期的收益也是可能的。标准普尔 500 指数在 2025 年表现强劲，预计在 2026 年将继续适度上升。科技股将占主导地位，但价值股和小盘股可能会轮动。风险在于估值已经很高，如果盈利增长放缓，可能会出现修正。</li>
</ul>
</div>

2026 年投资展望：在货币宽松周期中的资产价格趋势分析