<p>从整体来看，市场似乎正在形成底部。</p>
<p>从情绪的角度来看，市场反弹了大约 20 点，从 “恐惧” 区间中走出。值得注意的是，这一变化在风险资产中得到了明显反映，整体市场上涨了约 7%。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，比特币 [BTC] 价格在$90k 附近的整理看起来是积极的，类似于教科书中的整理区间，这最终可能为六位数水平铺平道路。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSD_2026-01-07_12-12-09.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSD_2026-01-07_12-12-09.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView (BTC/USDT)</p>
<p>也就是说，期待一个干净、线性的上涨仍然显得为时尚早。</p>
<p>在 1 月 6 日，比特币价格下跌了$3k，留下了一个长长的下影线，接近$91k。</p>
<p>结果？又一次流动性扫荡，触发了近$4.4 亿的总清算，其中约 70% 的损失来自多头头寸。</p>
<p>本质上，比特币尚未完全摆脱其波动性。在这种情况下，关注流动性至关重要。从目前的情况来看，比特币价格可能仍需获取更多流动性，才能发生适当的反转。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币价格下方的弱买盘信号谨慎</strong></h2>
<p>比特币价格与市场流动之间的背离变得越来越明显。</p>
<p>在宏观层面上，比特币 ETF 打破了过去两天的资金流入趋势，五个 ETF 的净流出为$2.44 亿。实际上，这标志着 2026 年的首次净流出，显示出机构买盘疲软。</p>
<p>与此同时，比特币主导地位 [BTC.D] 已经出现了三周的下跌，而整体市值仍在攀升。这一反向走势表明资金正在流入其他币种，限制了比特币价格的上涨。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTC.D_2026-01-07_12-36-34.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTC.D_2026-01-07_12-36-34.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView (BTC.D)</p>
<p>综合来看，这一形势表明我们尚未达到比特币的底部。</p>
<p>为什么这很重要：比特币价格下方的买入支撑仍然疲软，使长期交易者承压。确实，比特币在保持$90k 后吸收了大部分下行流动性，但尚未形成明确的底部。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，比特币在进一步上涨之前可能会出现回调。</p>
<p>首先，比特币需要对$90k 进行一次干净的重新测试，以稳定价格并清除过度暴露的多头，之后通往$95k 附近的短期阻力的道路将会打开，为潜在的六位数水平的上涨奠定基础。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特币价格尚未形成明确的底部，买入支撑疲软，多头头寸面临风险；回调至$90k 是可能的。</em></li>
<li><em>流入其他币种的资金限制了比特币，但一次干净的$90k 重新测试可能为向$95k 及最终六位数水平的上涨奠定基础。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

GBTC

<p>比特币的价格正在 consolidating 在 90,000 美元左右，显示出向六位数水平潜在上升的迹象。然而，最近的波动性以及对 4.4 亿美元的重大流动性扫荡，主要影响了多头头寸，这表明需要谨慎。市场正经历来自比特币 ETF 的 2.44 亿美元的净流出，显示出机构兴趣疲软。在可能上涨至 95,000 美元之前，回调至 90,000 美元是很可能的，因为目前资金流入山寨币限制了比特币的增长。总体而言，比特币尚未形成明确的基础，使得长期交易者面临压力</p>

<p>Zooming out, the market appears to be forming a bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从整体来看，市场似乎正在形成底部。</p>
</div><p>From a sentiment standpoint, the market has rebounded by roughly 20 points, thereby moving out of the “fear” zone. Notably, this shift is clearly reflected across risk assets, with the TOTAL market rising by around 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从情绪的角度来看，市场反弹了大约 20 点，从 “恐惧” 区间中走出。值得注意的是，这一变化在风险资产中得到了明显反映，整体市场上涨了约 7%。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, Bitcoin [BTC] price consolidating around $90k appears constructive, resembling a textbook consolidation range that could ultimately pave the way toward six-figure levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，比特币 [BTC] 价格在$90k 附近的整理看起来是积极的，类似于教科书中的整理区间，这最终可能为六位数水平铺平道路。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSD_2026-01-07_12-12-09.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSD_2026-01-07_12-12-09.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView (BTC/USDT)</p>
</div><p>That said, expecting a clean, linear move higher still feels premature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，期待一个干净、线性的上涨仍然显得为时尚早。</p>
</div><p>On the 6th of January, Bitcoin price dropped $3k, leaving a long lower wick down near $91k.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1 月 6 日，比特币价格下跌了$3k，留下了一个长长的下影线，接近$91k。</p>
</div><p>The result? Yet another liquidity sweeptriggered close to $440 million intotal liquidations, with roughly 70% of the losses incurred by long positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果？又一次流动性扫荡，触发了近$4.4 亿的总清算，其中约 70% 的损失来自多头头寸。</p>
</div><p>In essence, BTC has not yet fully shaken off its volatility. In this context, keeping an eye on liquidity is key. And from the looks of it, the Bitcoin price may still need to grab more liquidity before a proper reversal can happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本质上，比特币尚未完全摆脱其波动性。在这种情况下，关注流动性至关重要。从目前的情况来看，比特币价格可能仍需获取更多流动性，才能发生适当的反转。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Weak bid under Bitcoin price signals caution</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币价格下方的弱买盘信号谨慎</strong></h2>
</div><p>The divergence between Bitcoin price and market flow is becoming clear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币价格与市场流动之间的背离变得越来越明显。</p>
</div><p>At the macro level, BTC ETFs have broken the inflow streak of the past two days, posting a Net Outflow of $244 million across five ETFs. In fact, this marks the first net outflow of 2026, signaling a weak institutional bid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在宏观层面上，比特币 ETF 打破了过去两天的资金流入趋势，五个 ETF 的净流出为$2.44 亿。实际上，这标志着 2026 年的首次净流出，显示出机构买盘疲软。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance [BTC.D] has broken down with three red weeklies, while the TOTAL market cap continues to climb. This inverse move indicates capital is flowing into alts, putting a cap on Bitcoin price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，比特币主导地位 [BTC.D] 已经出现了三周的下跌，而整体市值仍在攀升。这一反向走势表明资金正在流入其他币种，限制了比特币价格的上涨。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTC.D_2026-01-07_12-36-34.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTC.D_2026-01-07_12-36-34.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (BTC.D)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView (BTC.D)</p>
</div><p>Taken together, the setup suggests we’re not yet at a BTC bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，这一形势表明我们尚未达到比特币的底部。</p>
</div><p>Why it matters: Buying support under the Bitcoin price remains weak, keeping long-term traders under pressure. Sure, BTC has absorbed most of the downside liquidity after holding $90k, but it hasn’t formed a clear base yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么这很重要：比特币价格下方的买入支撑仍然疲软，使长期交易者承压。确实，比特币在保持$90k 后吸收了大部分下行流动性，但尚未形成明确的底部。</p>
</div><p>In this context, a pullback looks likely before Bitcoin can push higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，比特币在进一步上涨之前可能会出现回调。</p>
</div><p>First, BTC needs a clean retest of $90k to stabilize price and shake out overexposed longs after which the way toward near-term resistance around $95k opens up, setting the stage for a potential run toward six-figure levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，比特币需要对$90k 进行一次干净的重新测试，以稳定价格并清除过度暴露的多头，之后通往$95k 附近的短期阻力的道路将会打开，为潜在的六位数水平的上涨奠定基础。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin price hasn’t formed a clear base yet, with weak buying support and long positions at risk; a pullback toward $90k is likely.</em></li>
<li><em>Capital flowing into altcoins is capping Bitcoin, but a clean $90k retest could set the stage for a move toward $95k and eventually six-figure levels.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特币价格尚未形成明确的底部，买入支撑疲软，多头头寸面临风险；回调至$90k 是可能的。</em></li>
<li><em>流入其他币种的资金限制了比特币，但一次干净的$90k 重新测试可能为向$95k 及最终六位数水平的上涨奠定基础。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

比特币——清算数据对 BTC 价格的预测如下