<p>对我来说，新年是在我位于苏黎世的办公桌上开始的。但即使在一月的头几天，我的注意力已经集中在旧金山。JP 摩根医疗健康大会的准备工作正在如火如荼地进行，因为它仍然是该行业的关键指标之一。新的研究数据、战略公告以及一月中旬的初步决策往往为未来一年定下基调。</p>
<p>医疗健康行业在 2026 年进入了一个显著改善的状态。在经历了一段时间的高度不确定性后，关键条件已经稳定，而几个结构性增长驱动因素正在获得动力。这为投资者创造了一个再次更加强调基本面、创新能力和盈利可见性的环境。</p>
<p><strong>政治清晰度作为资本流动的催化剂</strong></p>
<p>一个重要的转折点是美国政治清晰度的提高。2025 年秋季政府与主要制药公司达成的价格协议首次为未来的定价和报销政策创造了可计算的基础。这种更大的可预测性迅速产生了效果：资本流入该行业明显增加，医疗健康最近成为全球股市中最强劲的板块之一。此前观望的专业投资者开始重新建立头寸。</p>
<p><strong>估值正在追赶——潜力尚未被完全挖掘</strong></p>
<p>与此同时，重新估值已经开始。尽管估值已从历史低点回升至长期平均水平，但医疗健康行业仍以约 13% 的折扣交易于整体市场。这与盈利预期形成对比：预计生物制药和生命科学公司在 2024 年至 2027 年期间的平均盈利增长约为 15% 每年——是长期趋势约 7% 的两倍多。这种结构性增长与持续适度的估值结合，为投资者提供了一个增加配置的吸引窗口。</p>
<p>生物制药尤其受益于多个增长驱动因素。肿瘤学的新药物类别、肥胖和糖尿病治疗的进展以及心血管领域的创新正在打开额外的销售市场。同时，生物加工的需求正在上升，受到本土化效应和新生产平台的推动。</p>
<p>此外，强大的并购能力也在不断增强：许多公司拥有丰富的流动性储备，能够有效填补产品线空缺并积极管理专利到期。</p>
<p><strong>医疗技术：成熟市场与新增长领域</strong></p>
<p>医疗技术仍然是一个关键的增长支柱。机器人辅助手术和连续血糖监测等成熟细分市场继续以两位数的速度增长，而新技术迅速进入临床实践。预计连续血糖监测的可寻址市场在未来几年将几乎翻倍。同时，脉冲场消融和人工智能支持的智能眼镜等应用变得越来越重要。尽管有这种势头，大型医疗技术公司仍以显著的估值折扣交易于更广泛的股市。</p>
<p><strong>新兴市场：从生产地点到创新驱动者</strong></p>
<p>另一个结构性因素是新兴市场日益重要。中国正逐渐从单纯的生产和许可合作伙伴转变为独立的创新中心，例如在肿瘤学领域。在印度，人口趋势、日益壮大的中产阶级以及对医疗基础设施的投资正在推动对高质量疗法和专业服务的需求。</p>
<p><strong>一个正在崛起的行业</strong></p>
<p>在 2026 年初，医疗健康行业回到了历史上定期创造价值的地方：创新、结构性增长和日益增强的运营可见性。接下来的几周，尤其是对旧金山会议的密集准备，将更加聚焦于哪些主题、技术和商业模式将在 2026 年引领医疗健康行业的步伐。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em><strong>Marcel Fritsch</strong>, Bellevue Asset Management 医疗健康基金与委托管理负责人。</em></p>

梦百合

<p>医疗保健行业在 2026 年迎来了强劲的势头，这得益于美国市场条件的改善和政治环境的明朗。主要的增长动力包括生物制药的进步、医疗技术的创新，以及中国和印度等新兴市场日益重要的地位。尽管估值正在追赶，但医疗保健行业仍然相较于整体市场处于折扣状态。随着盈利增长预期的上升，投资者正越来越多地建立头寸。即将举行的 JP 摩根医疗保健会议将进一步突出该行业的趋势和机会</p>

<p>For me, the new year begins at my desk in Zurich. But even in the first few days of January, my attention is already focused on San Francisco. Preparations for the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference are in full swing, as it remains one of the key indicators for the sector. New study data, strategic announcements, and initial decisions in mid-January often set the tone for the year ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对我来说，新年是在我位于苏黎世的办公桌上开始的。但即使在一月的头几天，我的注意力已经集中在旧金山。JP 摩根医疗健康大会的准备工作正在如火如荼地进行，因为它仍然是该行业的关键指标之一。新的研究数据、战略公告以及一月中旬的初步决策往往为未来一年定下基调。</p>
</div><p>The healthcare sector is entering 2026 in a significantly improved position. After a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty, key conditions have stabilized, while several structural growth drivers are gaining momentum. This creates an environment for investors that is once again more strongly characterized by fundamentals, innovative strength, and earnings visibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>医疗健康行业在 2026 年进入了一个显著改善的状态。在经历了一段时间的高度不确定性后，关键条件已经稳定，而几个结构性增长驱动因素正在获得动力。这为投资者创造了一个再次更加强调基本面、创新能力和盈利可见性的环境。</p>
</div><p><strong>Political clarity as a catalyst for capital flows</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>政治清晰度作为资本流动的催化剂</strong></p>
</div><p>An important turning point was the increasing political clarity in the US. The price agreements reached in fall 2025 between the government and leading pharmaceutical companies have created a calculable basis for future pricing and reimbursement policy for the first time. This greater predictability has had a rapid effect: capital flows into the sector have increased noticeably, and healthcare has recently been one of the strongest segments of the global stock markets. Professional investors who had previously stood on the sidelines are beginning to build up positions again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个重要的转折点是美国政治清晰度的提高。2025 年秋季政府与主要制药公司达成的价格协议首次为未来的定价和报销政策创造了可计算的基础。这种更大的可预测性迅速产生了效果：资本流入该行业明显增加，医疗健康最近成为全球股市中最强劲的板块之一。此前观望的专业投资者开始重新建立头寸。</p>
</div><p><strong>Valuations are catching up – the potential has not yet been exhausted</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>估值正在追赶——潜力尚未被完全挖掘</strong></p>
</div><p>At the same time, a revaluation has begun. Although valuations have moved back from their historic lows towards their long-term averages, the healthcare sector continues to trade at a discount of around 13% to the overall market. This contrasts with earnings expectations: Biopharmaceutical and life science companies are expected to see average earnings growth of around 15% per year from 2024 to 2027 – more than double the long-term trend of around 7%. This combination of structural growth and continued moderate valuations creates an attractive window of opportunity for investors to increase their allocations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，重新估值已经开始。尽管估值已从历史低点回升至长期平均水平，但医疗健康行业仍以约 13% 的折扣交易于整体市场。这与盈利预期形成对比：预计生物制药和生命科学公司在 2024 年至 2027 年期间的平均盈利增长约为 15% 每年——是长期趋势约 7% 的两倍多。这种结构性增长与持续适度的估值结合，为投资者提供了一个增加配置的吸引窗口。</p>
</div><p>Biopharma in particular is benefiting from several growth drivers. New classes of drugs in oncology, advances in the treatment of obesity and diabetes, and innovations in the cardiovascular field are opening up additional sales markets. At the same time, demand in bioprocessing is rising, driven by onshoring effects and new production platforms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生物制药尤其受益于多个增长驱动因素。肿瘤学的新药物类别、肥胖和糖尿病治疗的进展以及心血管领域的创新正在打开额外的销售市场。同时，生物加工的需求正在上升，受到本土化效应和新生产平台的推动。</p>
</div><p>Added to this is exceptionally strong M&amp;A capacity: with extensive liquidity reserves, many companies are well positioned to close pipeline gaps and actively manage patent expiries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，强大的并购能力也在不断增强：许多公司拥有丰富的流动性储备，能够有效填补产品线空缺并积极管理专利到期。</p>
</div><p><strong>Medtech: Established markets and new growth areas</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>医疗技术：成熟市场与新增长领域</strong></p>
</div><p>Medtech also remains a key growth pillar. Established segments such as robot-assisted surgery and continuous glucose monitoring continue to grow at double-digit rates, while new technologies are rapidly finding their way into clinical practice. The addressable market for continuous glucose monitoring is expected to nearly double in the coming years. At the same time, applications such as pulse field ablation and AI-supported smart glasses are becoming increasingly important. Despite this momentum, large medtech companies continue to trade at a significant valuation discount to the broader stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>医疗技术仍然是一个关键的增长支柱。机器人辅助手术和连续血糖监测等成熟细分市场继续以两位数的速度增长，而新技术迅速进入临床实践。预计连续血糖监测的可寻址市场在未来几年将几乎翻倍。同时，脉冲场消融和人工智能支持的智能眼镜等应用变得越来越重要。尽管有这种势头，大型医疗技术公司仍以显著的估值折扣交易于更广泛的股市。</p>
</div><p><strong>Emerging markets: From production location to innovation driver</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>新兴市场：从生产地点到创新驱动者</strong></p>
</div><p>Another structural factor is the growing importance of emerging markets. China is increasingly evolving from a pure production and licensing partner to an independent innovation center, for example in the field of oncology. In India, demographic trends, a growing middle class, and investments in healthcare infrastructure are driving demand for high-quality therapies and specialized services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个结构性因素是新兴市场日益重要。中国正逐渐从单纯的生产和许可合作伙伴转变为独立的创新中心，例如在肿瘤学领域。在印度，人口趋势、日益壮大的中产阶级以及对医疗基础设施的投资正在推动对高质量疗法和专业服务的需求。</p>
</div><p><strong>A sector on the rise</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>一个正在崛起的行业</strong></p>
</div><p>At the beginning of 2026, healthcare is back where the sector has historically created value on a regular basis: innovation, structural growth, and increasing operational visibility. The coming weeks—and in particular the intensive preparations for the conference in San Francisco—are sharpening the focus on which topics, technologies, and business models will set the pace in the healthcare sector in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年初，医疗健康行业回到了历史上定期创造价值的地方：创新、结构性增长和日益增强的运营可见性。接下来的几周，尤其是对旧金山会议的密集准备，将更加聚焦于哪些主题、技术和商业模式将在 2026 年引领医疗健康行业的步伐。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em><strong>Marcel Fritsch</strong>, Head of Healthcare Fonds &amp; Mandate, Bellevue Asset Management.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>Marcel Fritsch</strong>, Bellevue Asset Management 医疗健康基金与委托管理负责人。</em></p>
</div>

2026 年伊始：医疗保健投资展现强劲势头