<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-8-2026-06_04_39-PM-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-8-2026-06_04_39-PM-1.png"/></p>
<p>虽然日历已经翻页，但对于英伟达来说，地缘政治的熟悉压力依然显著。</p>
<p>作为全球领先的人工智能芯片制造商，这家美国公司仍然夹在华盛顿对先进半导体出口的日益严格控制与北京减少对外国技术依赖的决心之间。</p>
<p>去年 12 月，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布，他的政府将解除对英伟达 H200 人工智能芯片出口中国的限制，推翻了拜登政府时期实施的禁令。</p>
<p>对于英伟达及其首席执行官黄仁勋来说，这一宣布是一个令人欣慰的胜利，因为黄仁勋花了数月时间游说白宫，认为阻止美国芯片制造商进入中国最终会加强国内中国竞争对手，而不是保护美国的领导地位。</p>
<h2>新的冲击：中国要求部分科技公司停止下新订单 H200 芯片</h2>
<p>然而，这些期望在本周受到冲击，《信息》报道中国当局已要求一些科技公司停止下新订单英伟达的 H200 芯片。</p>
<p>该报道指出，监管机构正在审查这些芯片是否应被允许进入中国以及在什么条件下进入，这表明这是一个暂停，而不是全面拒绝。</p>
<p>根据报道，北京希望防止公司在最终决定之前囤积美国制造的芯片。</p>
<p>“中国致力于基于自身优势推动国家发展，同时也愿意与各方保持对话与合作，以维护全球产业和供应链的稳定，” 中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇表示。</p>
<h2>中国可能允许特定用途购买 H200</h2>
<p>增加不确定性的是，彭博社周四报道，中国正准备在本季度尽快批准一些英伟达 H200 芯片的进口。</p>
<p>根据报道，中国官员正在考虑允许用于特定商业用途的购买，同时对敏感领域保持严格限制。</p>
<p>根据计划，这些芯片将被禁止用于军事、关键基础设施、敏感政府机构和国有企业，理由是出于安全考虑。</p>
<p>类似的限制之前也适用于其他外国技术产品，包括苹果的设备和美光科技的内存芯片。</p>
<p>报告补充说，来自受限组织的请求仍可能被单独审查，引用了消息来源。</p>
<h2>英伟达采取措施保护自己；要求全额预付款</h2>
<p>在这种变化的背景下，英伟达采取措施保护自己，以防批准延迟或撤回带来的潜在损失。</p>
<p>路透社报道，该公司已开始要求寻求购买 H200 芯片的中国客户全额预付款，施加比以往更严格的商业条款。</p>
<p>该政策要求客户在下订单时全额支付，订单后不允许取消、申请退款或更改配置。</p>
<p>在有限的情况下，客户可能被允许提供商业保险或资产抵押，而不是现金。</p>
<p>虽然预付款长期以来一直是英伟达对中国客户的标准条款，但之前允许客户支付定金而不是全额预付款。</p>
<p>然而，对于 H200，英伟达收紧了条件，反映出对最终是否批准发货缺乏明确性。</p>
<p>这一举措反映了吸取的惨痛教训。</p>
<p>去年，英伟达因美国突然禁令阻止 H20 芯片销售给中国而进行了 55 亿美元的库存减记，突显了政策变化如何迅速转化为财务痛苦。</p>
<h2>尽管不确定性，中国的需求依然强劲</h2>
<p>即使监管机构在审议，H200 的需求似乎并未减弱。</p>
<p>H200 是一款强大的组件。作为英伟达第二先进的芯片，它的性能大约是 H20 的六倍，后者是专门设计以遵守早期出口规则的产品，后来被全面禁用。</p>
<p>对于急于构建和部署大规模人工智能系统的中国科技公司而言，H200 代表了能力的重大飞跃。</p>
<p>黄仁勋周二表示，客户的兴趣 “相当高”，英伟达已提前扩大了供应链以应对订单。</p>
<p>“特朗普总统已经表示 H200 是被许可出口的，现在我们需要处理相关的机制。一旦完成，我预计采购订单会到来。”</p>
<p>黄仁勋补充说，他不期待北京会发布正式声明，指出采购订单的到来本身就会表明批准。</p>
<p>“我们通过采购订单了解一切。我们不期待任何新闻稿或大型声明，” 黄仁勋说。</p>
<p>根据路透社的报道，中国科技公司已下单超过 200 万颗 H200 芯片，每颗价格约为 27,000 美元。</p>
<p>这远远超过了英伟达目前约 70 万单位的库存，突显了需求的规模和满足需求的物流挑战。</p>
<h2>对英伟达来说，财务风险高昂</h2>
<p>中国对英伟达的财务重要性依然显著。</p>
<p>在 8 月，首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯表示，该公司每季度可以向中国出货价值 20 亿到 50 亿美元的芯片，如果订单加速，这一数字还有上升的空间。</p>
<p>最近几天，英伟达的政府事务团队传播报告，警告称中国公司如华为和百度正在缩小与美国芯片的质量差距。</p>
<p>英伟达认为，切断与中国的联系可能加速国内竞争对手的崛起，而不是减缓他们的增长。</p>
<p>咨询公司 Frost &amp; Sullivan 的报告显示，百度和华为已经控制了中国云计算芯片市场超过 70% 的份额。</p>
<p>它补充说，国内公司正在构建 “全栈” 产品，以与英伟达的 CUDA 软件生态系统竞争，而后者是其在人工智能计算领域主导地位的基石。</p>
<h2>国内竞争者获得动力，但仍远远落后于英伟达</h2>
<p>包括字节跳动在内的中国互联网集团，将 H200 视为关键升级，同时继续开发替代方案。</p>
<p>分析师表示，国内 GPU 可能在三到五年内从战略备份转变为中国人工智能产业的核心组件。</p>
<p>投资者对这一转变的乐观情绪推动了中国芯片股票的急剧上涨。</p>
<p>去年，寒武纪的股价上涨超过 120%，而由前英伟达高管创办的 Moore Threads 则在上海科创板进行了一次年度最大规模的上市。</p>
<p>尽管如此，专家警告称，中国企业仍然在性能上显著落后于英伟达。</p>
<p>华为常被认为是最强的国内竞争者，预计在性能上至少落后两年。</p>
<p>根据美国新安全中心的 Tim Fist 的说法，中国制造商还面临严重的产能限制，最多只能生产外国竞争对手产量的 2%。</p>
<p>为了满足预期的需求，英伟达已与台湾半导体制造公司接洽，计划提高 H200 的生产能力，预计在 2026 年第二季度将有额外产能上线。</p>
<p>这一扩张正值挑战时期，因为英伟达正在从其 Blackwell 架构过渡到更先进的 Rubin 平台，并与谷歌等客户竞争在台积电稀缺的制造名额。</p>
<p>关于英伟达在中国的平衡：H200 芯片、地缘政治和高风险的人工智能赌注的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达在中国面临挑战，因为它在应对美国与中国之间关于半导体出口的地缘政治紧张局势。继特朗普总统最近宣布解除对英伟达 H200 芯片的出口管制后，中国当局已要求一些科技公司暂停新订单，同时审查进口条件。尽管存在这种不确定性，H200 的需求依然强劲，英伟达收紧了对中国客户的付款条款，以减轻潜在损失。该公司预计，采购订单将标志着销售的批准，因为中国科技公司对 H200 芯片的兴趣持续增长</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-8-2026-06_04_39-PM-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-8-2026-06_04_39-PM-1.png"/></p>
<p>The calendar may have turned, but for Nvidia, the familiar strains of geopolitics continue to loom large.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然日历已经翻页，但对于英伟达来说，地缘政治的熟悉压力依然显著。</p>
</div><p>As the world’s leading maker of artificial intelligence chips, the US company remains caught between Washington’s tightening grip on advanced semiconductor exports and Beijing’s determination to reduce reliance on foreign technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为全球领先的人工智能芯片制造商，这家美国公司仍然夹在华盛顿对先进半导体出口的日益严格控制与北京减少对外国技术依赖的决心之间。</p>
</div><p>In December, US President Donald Trump had announced that his administration would remove export controls on Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips for China, reversing a ban imposed under the previous Biden administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年 12 月，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布，他的政府将解除对英伟达 H200 人工智能芯片出口中国的限制，推翻了拜登政府时期实施的禁令。</p>
</div><p>For Nvidia and its chief executive Jensen Huang, the announcement was a welcome win after Huang spent months lobbying the White House, arguing that blocking US chipmakers from China would ultimately strengthen domestic Chinese rivals rather than protect American leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于英伟达及其首席执行官黄仁勋来说，这一宣布是一个令人欣慰的胜利，因为黄仁勋花了数月时间游说白宫，认为阻止美国芯片制造商进入中国最终会加强国内中国竞争对手，而不是保护美国的领导地位。</p>
</div><h2>Fresh jolt: China asks some tech cos to stop placing new orders for H200 chips</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新的冲击：中国要求部分科技公司停止下新订单 H200 芯片</h2>
</div><p>However, those expectations were jolted this week after The Information reported that Chinese authorities had asked some technology companies to stop placing new orders for Nvidia’s H200 chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些期望在本周受到冲击，《信息》报道中国当局已要求一些科技公司停止下新订单英伟达的 H200 芯片。</p>
</div><p>The report said regulators were reviewing whether the chips should be allowed into the country and under what conditions, signalling a pause rather than a blanket rejection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该报道指出，监管机构正在审查这些芯片是否应被允许进入中国以及在什么条件下进入，这表明这是一个暂停，而不是全面拒绝。</p>
</div><p>According to the report, Beijing is keen to prevent companies from stockpiling US-made chips before a final decision is reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据报道，北京希望防止公司在最终决定之前囤积美国制造的芯片。</p>
</div><p>“China is committed to basing its national development on its own strengths, and is also willing to maintain dialogue and cooperation with all parties to safeguard the stability of global industrial and supply chains,” said Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“中国致力于基于自身优势推动国家发展，同时也愿意与各方保持对话与合作，以维护全球产业和供应链的稳定，” 中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇表示。</p>
</div><h2>China could allow purchases of H200 for select uses</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中国可能允许特定用途购买 H200</h2>
</div><p>Adding to the uncertainty, Bloomberg reported on Thursday that China is preparing to approve some imports of Nvidia’s H200 chips as soon as this quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增加不确定性的是，彭博社周四报道，中国正准备在本季度尽快批准一些英伟达 H200 芯片的进口。</p>
</div><p>As per the report, Chinese officials are considering allowing purchases for select commercial uses, while keeping strict limits in place for sensitive areas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据报道，中国官员正在考虑允许用于特定商业用途的购买，同时对敏感领域保持严格限制。</p>
</div><p>Under the plan, the chips would be barred from use by the military, critical infrastructure, sensitive government agencies and state-owned enterprises, citing security concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据计划，这些芯片将被禁止用于军事、关键基础设施、敏感政府机构和国有企业，理由是出于安全考虑。</p>
</div><p>Similar restrictions have previously been applied to other foreign technology products, including devices from Apple and memory chips from Micron Technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>类似的限制之前也适用于其他外国技术产品，包括苹果的设备和美光科技的内存芯片。</p>
</div><p>Requests from restricted organisations could still be reviewed individually, the report added, citing sources.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告补充说，来自受限组织的请求仍可能被单独审查，引用了消息来源。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia moves to protect itself; demands full upfront payment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达采取措施保护自己；要求全额预付款</h2>
</div><p>Against this shifting backdrop, Nvidia has taken steps to shield itself from potential losses if approvals are delayed or withdrawn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种变化的背景下，英伟达采取措施保护自己，以防批准延迟或撤回带来的潜在损失。</p>
</div><p>Reuters reported that the company has begun demanding full upfront payment from Chinese customers seeking to buy H200 chips, imposing stricter commercial terms than usual.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社报道，该公司已开始要求寻求购买 H200 芯片的中国客户全额预付款，施加比以往更严格的商业条款。</p>
</div><p>The policy requires customers to pay in full at the time of ordering, with no option to cancel, seek refunds or change configurations after orders are placed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该政策要求客户在下订单时全额支付，订单后不允许取消、申请退款或更改配置。</p>
</div><p>In limited cases, clients may be allowed to provide commercial insurance or asset collateral instead of cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在有限的情况下，客户可能被允许提供商业保险或资产抵押，而不是现金。</p>
</div><p>While advance payments have long been part of Nvidia’s standard terms for Chinese clients, they were previously allowed to place deposits rather than pay the full amount up front.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然预付款长期以来一直是英伟达对中国客户的标准条款，但之前允许客户支付定金而不是全额预付款。</p>
</div><p>For the H200, however, Nvidia has tightened conditions, reflecting the lack of clarity over whether shipments will ultimately be approved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对于 H200，英伟达收紧了条件，反映出对最终是否批准发货缺乏明确性。</p>
</div><p>The move reflects hard lessons learned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举措反映了吸取的惨痛教训。</p>
</div><p>Last year, Nvidia took a $5.5 billion inventory write-down after a sudden US ban blocked sales of the H20 chip to China, highlighting how quickly policy shifts can translate into financial pain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，英伟达因美国突然禁令阻止 H20 芯片销售给中国而进行了 55 亿美元的库存减记，突显了政策变化如何迅速转化为财务痛苦。</p>
</div><h2>Demand in China remains strong despite uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管不确定性，中国的需求依然强劲</h2>
</div><p>Even as regulators deliberate, demand for the H200 appears undiminished.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使监管机构在审议，H200 的需求似乎并未减弱。</p>
</div><p>The H200 is a powerful component. As Nvidia’s second-most advanced chip, it offers roughly six times the performance of the H20, a product that had been designed specifically to comply with earlier export rules before being banned outright.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>H200 是一款强大的组件。作为英伟达第二先进的芯片，它的性能大约是 H20 的六倍，后者是专门设计以遵守早期出口规则的产品，后来被全面禁用。</p>
</div><p>For Chinese technology firms racing to build and deploy large-scale AI systems, the H200 represents a major leap in capability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于急于构建和部署大规模人工智能系统的中国科技公司而言，H200 代表了能力的重大飞跃。</p>
</div><p>Huang said on Tuesday that customer interest was “quite high” and that Nvidia had ramped up its supply chain in anticipation of orders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄仁勋周二表示，客户的兴趣 “相当高”，英伟达已提前扩大了供应链以应对订单。</p>
</div><p>“President Trump has already said that the H200s are licensed to be exported, and now we have to go through the mechanics of that. Once we get that done, I’m expecting the purchase orders to arrive.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“特朗普总统已经表示 H200 是被许可出口的，现在我们需要处理相关的机制。一旦完成，我预计采购订单会到来。”</p>
</div><p>Huang added that he did not expect a formal statement from Beijing, noting that the arrival of purchase orders would itself signal approval.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄仁勋补充说，他不期待北京会发布正式声明，指出采购订单的到来本身就会表明批准。</p>
</div><p>“We learn about everything through purchase orders. We’re not expecting any press releases or any large declarations,” Huang said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们通过采购订单了解一切。我们不期待任何新闻稿或大型声明，” 黄仁勋说。</p>
</div><p>According to Reuters, Chinese technology companies have placed orders for more than 2 million H200 chips, each priced at about $27,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据路透社的报道，中国科技公司已下单超过 200 万颗 H200 芯片，每颗价格约为 27,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>That far exceeds Nvidia’s current inventory of around 700,000 units, underlining both the scale of demand and the logistical challenge of meeting it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这远远超过了英伟达目前约 70 万单位的库存，突显了需求的规模和满足需求的物流挑战。</p>
</div><h2>High financial stakes for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对英伟达来说，财务风险高昂</h2>
</div><p>The financial importance of China to Nvidia remains substantial.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国对英伟达的财务重要性依然显著。</p>
</div><p>In August, chief financial officer Colette Kress said the company could ship between $2 billion and $5 billion worth of chips to China per quarter, with scope for that figure to rise if orders accelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 8 月，首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯表示，该公司每季度可以向中国出货价值 20 亿到 50 亿美元的芯片，如果订单加速，这一数字还有上升的空间。</p>
</div><p>In recent days, Nvidia’s government affairs team has circulated reports warning that Chinese companies such as Huawei and Baidu are closing the quality gap with US chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近几天，英伟达的政府事务团队传播报告，警告称中国公司如华为和百度正在缩小与美国芯片的质量差距。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has argued that cutting it off from China risks accelerating the rise of domestic competitors rather than slowing them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达认为，切断与中国的联系可能加速国内竞争对手的崛起，而不是减缓他们的增长。</p>
</div><p>A report by consulting firm Frost &amp; Sullivan suggested that Baidu and Huawei already control more than 70% of China’s cloud-computing chip market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>咨询公司 Frost &amp; Sullivan 的报告显示，百度和华为已经控制了中国云计算芯片市场超过 70% 的份额。</p>
</div><p>It added that domestic companies are building “full-stack” offerings to rival Nvidia’s CUDA software ecosystem, a cornerstone of its dominance in AI computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它补充说，国内公司正在构建 “全栈” 产品，以与英伟达的 CUDA 软件生态系统竞争，而后者是其在人工智能计算领域主导地位的基石。</p>
</div><h2>Domestic challengers gain momentum but still quite behind Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>国内竞争者获得动力，但仍远远落后于英伟达</h2>
</div><p>Chinese internet groups, including ByteDance, see the H200 as a crucial upgrade while they continue to develop alternatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括字节跳动在内的中国互联网集团，将 H200 视为关键升级，同时继续开发替代方案。</p>
</div><p>Analysts say domestic GPUs could move from being strategic backups to core components of China’s AI industry within three to five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，国内 GPU 可能在三到五年内从战略备份转变为中国人工智能产业的核心组件。</p>
</div><p>Investor optimism around that shift has driven sharp gains in Chinese chip stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对这一转变的乐观情绪推动了中国芯片股票的急剧上涨。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Cambricon rose more than 120% last year, while Moore Threads, founded by a former Nvidia executive, floated in one of the Shanghai Star Market’s largest offerings of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，寒武纪的股价上涨超过 120%，而由前英伟达高管创办的 Moore Threads 则在上海科创板进行了一次年度最大规模的上市。</p>
</div><p>Even so, experts caution that Chinese players still trail Nvidia by a meaningful margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，专家警告称，中国企业仍然在性能上显著落后于英伟达。</p>
</div><p>Huawei, often cited as the strongest domestic challenger, is thought to be at least two years behind in performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华为常被认为是最强的国内竞争者，预计在性能上至少落后两年。</p>
</div><p>Chinese manufacturers also face severe capacity constraints, producing at most 2% of the volume achieved by foreign rivals, according to Tim Fist of the Center for a New American Security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据美国新安全中心的 Tim Fist 的说法，中国制造商还面临严重的产能限制，最多只能生产外国竞争对手产量的 2%。</p>
</div><p>To meet anticipated demand, Nvidia has approached Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co about ramping up H200 production, with additional capacity expected to come online in the second quarter of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了满足预期的需求，英伟达已与台湾半导体制造公司接洽，计划提高 H200 的生产能力，预计在 2026 年第二季度将有额外产能上线。</p>
</div><p>That expansion comes at a challenging time, as Nvidia transitions from its Blackwell architecture to the more advanced Rubin platform and competes with customers such as Alphabet’s Google for scarce manufacturing slots at TSMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一扩张正值挑战时期，因为英伟达正在从其 Blackwell 架构过渡到更先进的 Rubin 平台，并与谷歌等客户竞争在台积电稀缺的制造名额。</p>
</div><p>The post Nvidia’s China tightrope: H200 chips, geopolitics and a high-stakes AI gamble appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于英伟达在中国的平衡：H200 芯片、地缘政治和高风险的人工智能赌注的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
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Nvidia’s China tightrope: H200 chips, geopolitics and a high-stakes AI gamble

- 美国对 Nvidia H200 芯片出口控制放松，但中国技术公司新订单受限。  
- Nvidia 要求中国客户全额预付款，以应对不确定性和政策变动带来的损失。  
- 中国对美国芯片需求旺盛，尽管国内竞争者正在逐步增长。

英伟达在中国的钢丝行走：H200 芯片、地缘政治以及高风险的人工智能赌局