<p>作者：Felix Vezina-Poirier</p><p>当政治家介入中央银行的决策时，通货膨胀、美元和股市变得更加不可预测。</p><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已成为中央银行独立性的象征。</p><p>美国司法部向美联储发出了大陪审团传票，威胁到可能的刑事起诉。虽然这很严重，但特朗普政府控制美联储的努力最终不太可能成功。这一举动似乎旨在施压美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在他 5 月任期结束后辞去董事会席位，尽管他作为美联储理事的任期将持续到 2028 年 1 月。</p><p>市场迄今反应平淡——这表明投资者认为政府的举措将无法获得动力。美国参议院以及债券市场代表了一个关键的制度约束。</p><p>对于投资者而言，中央银行独立性的显著削弱将削弱美联储的通胀目标纪律，对股票和债券都将产生负面影响，因为市场长期以来一直假设美联储的独立性将保持。这种压力也意味着需要重新考虑对实际资产的战略配置，包括商品、与通胀挂钩的债券和房地产。</p><p>美联储独立性与通货膨胀</p><p>经济波动和干扰对家庭、企业、政府和市场都是有成本的。政策制定者寻求减少这种波动的一种方式是稳定预期，特别是通胀预期。这个目标与中央银行的独立性紧密相关。</p><p>一个独立的中央银行在经济过热时提高利率，在经济活动低迷时降低利率，有助于在长期和商业周期中保持利率适中。当货币政策旨在避免商业周期的极端情况时，经济稳定性得以增强，且不受选举政治家的控制。</p><p>在缺乏这种制度框架的情况下，通货膨胀更可能变得持久和波动。债券市场需要为这种风险定价，推动长期通胀预期超过中央银行的目标，并抬高长期利率。这反过来将提高家庭和企业的借贷成本，影响长期经济增长。</p><p>中央银行独立性和通胀目标并不意味着通货膨胀总是保持在目标水平。相反，它们意味着中央银行将在偏离发生时果断采取行动将通货膨胀恢复到目标水平。</p><p>虽然高利率不受欢迎，但真正的权衡在于在经济过热时暂时提高利率，还是持续保持高利率。</p><p>通货膨胀可以源于需求侧力量、供给侧力量或通胀预期的变化。在没有重大冲击的情况下，通货膨胀应该在长期内与目标保持一致。尽管在 2021-22 年期间通货膨胀超出预期，但美国的通胀预期仍然保持稳定。市场理解美联储最终会采取行动恢复价格稳定。</p><p>这突显了中央银行独立性和通胀目标的另一个好处：可预测性。一个能够应对经济极端情况的中央银行降低了过度通货膨胀和失业的风险，使家庭和企业能够在合理的确定性下进行规划。</p><p>投资考虑</p><p>虽然我们不期望特朗普政府能够控制美联储，但对中央银行独立性的持续压力可能会对美元 DXY 产生负面影响。</p><p>除了监测参议院作为美联储主要制度防线外，投资者还应关注市场。迄今为止，市场保持平静，反映出对参议院将维护美联储独立性的信心。长期通胀预期，通过 5 年/5 年 CPI 互换进行代理，仍然稳定。</p><p>然而，这种平静可能会形成一个危险的反馈循环。如果政策制定者将市场稳定视为对削弱独立性的认可，讽刺的是，市场可能会因此崩溃。在这种情况下，股票将下跌，利率将上升，美元将贬值。这不是我们的基本情况，但市场动态的自我维持特性使其成为一个值得考虑的风险。</p><p>相反，如果制衡机制得以维持而不被削弱，这将加强美国在未来几十年作为全球资本主要目的地的地位。市场的平静依赖于参议院作为美联储独立性的后盾。如果这一条件被误解，市场将会崩溃。</p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了潜在的政治干预对美联储独立性的影响，特别是在特朗普政府期间。文章强调了这样的干预可能导致经济波动加剧，从而影响通货膨胀、美元和股市。尽管当前市场反应平淡，但文章警告称，美联储独立性的侵蚀可能需要重新评估投资策略，特别是在实物资产方面。文章强调了参议院作为美联储独立性保护者的角色，如果这种独立性受到削弱，可能会对市场稳定带来风险</p>

<p>By Felix Vezina-Poirier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Felix Vezina-Poirier</p>
</div><p>When politicians get involved with central-bank decisions, inflation, the dollar and the stock market all become less predictable</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当政治家介入中央银行的决策时，通货膨胀、美元和股市变得更加不可预测。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has become a symbol of central-bank independence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已成为中央银行独立性的象征。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve was served grand-jury subpoenas by the U.S. Justice Department that threaten a criminal indictment. While serious, it's unlikely that the Trump administration's effort to control the Fed will ultimately succeed. The move appears aimed at pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to step down from his board seat once his term as chair ends in May, even though his separate term as a Fed governor runs until January 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国司法部向美联储发出了大陪审团传票，威胁到可能的刑事起诉。虽然这很严重，但特朗普政府控制美联储的努力最终不太可能成功。这一举动似乎旨在施压美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在他 5 月任期结束后辞去董事会席位，尽管他作为美联储理事的任期将持续到 2028 年 1 月。</p>
</div><p>Markets have reacted in a muted fashion so far - an indication that investors believe the administration's initiative will fail to gain momentum. The U.S. Senate, along with the bond market, represents a key institutional constraint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场迄今反应平淡——这表明投资者认为政府的举措将无法获得动力。美国参议院以及债券市场代表了一个关键的制度约束。</p>
</div><p>For investors, a meaningful erosion of central-bank independence would weaken the Fed's inflation-targeting discipline and be negative for both stocks and bonds, as markets have long operated under the assumption that Fed independence will hold. Such pressure also argues for rethinking strategic allocations to real assets, including commodities, inflation-linked bonds and real estate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者而言，中央银行独立性的显著削弱将削弱美联储的通胀目标纪律，对股票和债券都将产生负面影响，因为市场长期以来一直假设美联储的独立性将保持。这种压力也意味着需要重新考虑对实际资产的战略配置，包括商品、与通胀挂钩的债券和房地产。</p>
</div><p>Fed independence and inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储独立性与通货膨胀</p>
</div><p>Economic volatility and disruption are costly for households, businesses, governments and markets. A way policymakers seek to reduce that volatility is by stabilizing expectations, particularly inflation expectations. That objective is tightly linked to central-bank independence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济波动和干扰对家庭、企业、政府和市场都是有成本的。政策制定者寻求减少这种波动的一种方式是稳定预期，特别是通胀预期。这个目标与中央银行的独立性紧密相关。</p>
</div><p>An independent central bank raising interest rates when the economy overheats and lowering them when activity is depressed helps keep interest rates moderate over both the long run and across business cycles. Economic stability is enhanced when monetary policy, which aims to avoid extremes in the business cycle, is kept out of the hands of elected politicians.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个独立的中央银行在经济过热时提高利率，在经济活动低迷时降低利率，有助于在长期和商业周期中保持利率适中。当货币政策旨在避免商业周期的极端情况时，经济稳定性得以增强，且不受选举政治家的控制。</p>
</div><p>Absent that institutional framework, inflation is more likely to become persistent and volatile. The bond market would need to price that risk, pushing long-term inflation expectations above the central bank's target and lifting long-term interest rates. That, in turn, would raise borrowing costs for households and businesses, weighing on long-term economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在缺乏这种制度框架的情况下，通货膨胀更可能变得持久和波动。债券市场需要为这种风险定价，推动长期通胀预期超过中央银行的目标，并抬高长期利率。这反过来将提高家庭和企业的借贷成本，影响长期经济增长。</p>
</div><p>Central-bank independence and inflation targeting do not imply inflation always remains at target. Rather, they mean the central bank will act decisively to bring inflation back to target when deviations occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行独立性和通胀目标并不意味着通货膨胀总是保持在目标水平。相反，它们意味着中央银行将在偏离发生时果断采取行动将通货膨胀恢复到目标水平。</p>
</div><p>While higher interest rates are unpopular, the real trade-off is between having them temporarily when the economy overheats or having them persistently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然高利率不受欢迎，但真正的权衡在于在经济过热时暂时提高利率，还是持续保持高利率。</p>
</div><p>Inflation can originate from demand-side forces, supply-side forces or shifts in inflation expectations. Absent major shocks, inflation should align with the target over the long run. Despite inflation overshooting during 2021-22, inflation expectations in the U.S. remained anchored. Markets understood that the Fed would ultimately act to restore price stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通货膨胀可以源于需求侧力量、供给侧力量或通胀预期的变化。在没有重大冲击的情况下，通货膨胀应该在长期内与目标保持一致。尽管在 2021-22 年期间通货膨胀超出预期，但美国的通胀预期仍然保持稳定。市场理解美联储最终会采取行动恢复价格稳定。</p>
</div><p>This highlights another benefit of central-bank independence and inflation targeting: predictability. A central bank free to counter economic extremes reduces the risk of excess inflation and unemployment, allowing households and businesses to plan with a reasonable degree of certainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这突显了中央银行独立性和通胀目标的另一个好处：可预测性。一个能够应对经济极端情况的中央银行降低了过度通货膨胀和失业的风险，使家庭和企业能够在合理的确定性下进行规划。</p>
</div><p>Investment considerations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资考虑</p>
</div><p>While we do not expect the Trump administration to capture the Federal Reserve, continued pressure on central-bank independence is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar DXY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我们不期望特朗普政府能够控制美联储，但对中央银行独立性的持续压力可能会对美元 DXY 产生负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Beyond monitoring the Senate as the primary institutional defense of the Federal Reserve, investors should also watch markets. So far, markets have remained calm, reflecting confidence that the Senate will preserve Fed independence. Long-dated inflation expectations, proxied through 5-year/5-year CPI swaps, are still stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了监测参议院作为美联储主要制度防线外，投资者还应关注市场。迄今为止，市场保持平静，反映出对参议院将维护美联储独立性的信心。长期通胀预期，通过 5 年/5 年 CPI 互换进行代理，仍然稳定。</p>
</div><p>However, this calm could create a dangerous feedback loop. If policymakers interpret market stability as an endorsement of diminished independence, ironically markets could then break down. In that scenario, equities would fall, interest rates would rise and the U.S. dollar would weaken. This is not our base case, but the self-sustaining nature of market dynamics makes it a risk worth considering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这种平静可能会形成一个危险的反馈循环。如果政策制定者将市场稳定视为对削弱独立性的认可，讽刺的是，市场可能会因此崩溃。在这种情况下，股票将下跌，利率将上升，美元将贬值。这不是我们的基本情况，但市场动态的自我维持特性使其成为一个值得考虑的风险。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, if checks and balances prevail without being weakened, it would reinforce the United States' position as a leading destination for global capital over the coming decades. Market calm is conditional on the Senate acting as a backstop to Fed independence. If that condition is misread, markets will break down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，如果制衡机制得以维持而不被削弱，这将加强美国在未来几十年作为全球资本主要目的地的地位。市场的平静依赖于参议院作为美联储独立性的后盾。如果这一条件被误解，市场将会崩溃。</p>
</div><p>Felix Vezina-Poirier is the chief strategist for Daily Insights, BCA Research's global cross-asset strategy service. Follow him on LinkedIn and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Felix Vezina-Poirier 是 Daily Insights 的首席策略师，BCA Research 的全球跨资产策略服务。请在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注他。</p>
</div><p>More: Shocked by Trump's criminal probe into Jerome Powell? 5 things you need to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多信息：对特朗普对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的刑事调查感到震惊？你需要知道的五件事。</p>
</div><p>Also read: The financial elite aren't worried about a stock-market bubble yet - but you can't afford to be so complacent</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：金融精英们尚未担心股市泡沫——但你不能如此自满。</p>
</div><p>-Felix Vezina-Poirier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Felix Vezina-Poirier</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>01-14-26 2021ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2021 年 01 月 14 日 ET</p>
</div>

如果特朗普破坏美联储的独立性，您的财富和投资将面临风险