<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1132" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>最新的英国通胀上升——从 12 月的 3.2% 上升至 3.4%——预计不会持续。我们预计头条 CPI 将在 4 月达到 2%，甚至暂时低于 2%。这将为 3 月和 6 月进一步降息铺平道路，早于市场的预期。</p>
<h3><strong>最新英国通胀数据中有两个显著点：</strong></h3>
<p>首先，食品通胀上升——从 4.2% 上升至 4.5%——但仍远低于英格兰银行最近的预测（5.3%）。请记住，食品通胀一直是英格兰银行鹰派的一个主要担忧。人们担心超市价格的上涨对消费者非常明显，可能会推动通胀预期的激增以及更持久的价格压力。</p>
<p>这些担忧看起来有些夸大——没有理由认为英国食品通胀不会跟随西欧/中东欧的趋势，在未来几个月内下降。</p>
<p><strong>英国食品通胀高于欧洲其他地区</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/210126-chart-food.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="800" height="412" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/210126-chart-food.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Macrobond，ING</p>
<p>其次，机票价格。这些价格在圣诞节期间尤其波动。2024 年那时机票价格的上涨异常温和，人们担心 2025 年底的激增可能会暂时推高服务通胀，具体取决于国家统计局测量的日期。最终，历史标准下的上涨再次相对温和。</p>
<p>显然，这些都只是噪音。更重要的是，我们计算出的英格兰银行偏好的 “核心服务” 通胀指标——排除某些波动性/指数化类别——为 4%，已经维持了三个月。</p>
<p>这表明，在 2 月份的英格兰银行会议上，没有任何因素会改变局势。官员们希望看到服务通胀的更多进展。考虑到官员们暗示降息的速度会放缓，我们怀疑英格兰银行在下次决策时会采取任何行动，除了维持利率不变。</p>
<p>但正如我们在开头所说，通胀背景在 4 月看起来会好得多。许多服务价格每年只更新一次，在财政年度开始时。我们已经知道，去年的水和污水费用（后者是一项服务）上涨 25% 不会在今年以相同程度重复。我们也没有看到车辆税的重复上涨。今年其他更温和的价格上涨应该会将服务通胀从 12 月的 4.5% 降至 4 月后的约 3%。</p>
<p><strong>'核心服务'通胀为 4%</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/210126-chart-boeservices.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="800" height="412" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/210126-chart-boeservices.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Macrobond，ING 计算</p>
<p>这对降息意味着什么？英格兰银行将密切关注 4 月的数据——将在 5 月发布——但这并不排除在此之前采取行动。</p>
<p>我们认为，如果疲软的招聘背景和温和的工资增长趋势在接下来的几份报告中持续，英格兰银行将在 3 月降息感到舒适。然后，如果我们对 4 月通胀数据的预测正确，英格兰银行应该能够在 6 月再次降息。这将使银行利率保持在 3.25%。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>外汇日报：不信任美元抛售</p>
<p>利率快讯：收益率飙升，但水平远未过高</p>
<p>英国工资增长放缓指向春季降息</p>

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英国指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

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<p>英国的通胀预计将在四月份降至 2%，尽管最近上升至 3.4%。食品通胀有所增加，但仍低于英格兰银行的预测。银行在下次会议上可能会维持利率不变，但如果通胀数据改善，可能会在三月和六月进行降息。核心服务通胀稳定在 4%，预计服务价格上涨温和，这将有助于到四月份形成更为有利的通胀前景</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>The latest rise in UK inflation – from 3.2% to 3.4% in December – shouldn't last. We expect headline CPI to get to 2% and even temporarily dip below in April. That should unlock further rate cuts in March and June, earlier than markets expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的英国通胀上升——从 12 月的 3.2% 上升至 3.4%——预计不会持续。我们预计头条 CPI 将在 4 月达到 2%，甚至暂时低于 2%。这将为 3 月和 6 月进一步降息铺平道路，早于市场的预期。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Two things stand out in the latest UK inflation numbers:</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>最新英国通胀数据中有两个显著点：</strong></h3>
</div><p>First, food inflation notched higher – up from 4.2% to 4.5% – but is still well below the Bank of England’s most recent forecast (5.3%). Remember, food inflation has been a key bugbear of the hawks at the Bank of England. The fear has been that higher supermarket prices are very noticeable for consumers and risk fuelling a surge in inflation expectations and a more persistent bout of price pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，食品通胀上升——从 4.2% 上升至 4.5%——但仍远低于英格兰银行最近的预测（5.3%）。请记住，食品通胀一直是英格兰银行鹰派的一个主要担忧。人们担心超市价格的上涨对消费者非常明显，可能会推动通胀预期的激增以及更持久的价格压力。</p>
</div><p>Those fears look overblown – and there’s no reason why UK food inflation shouldn’t follow the rest of Western Europe/CEE and move lower over the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些担忧看起来有些夸大——没有理由认为英国食品通胀不会跟随西欧/中东欧的趋势，在未来几个月内下降。</p>
</div><p><strong>UK food inflation is higher than the rest of Europe</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英国食品通胀高于欧洲其他地区</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/210126-chart-food.png" alt="" original-src="https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/210126-chart-food.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Macrobond, ING</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Macrobond，ING</p>
</div><p>Second, air fares. These are notoriously volatile, especially around Christmas. The rise in plane ticket prices was unusually muted at that point in 2024 and the fear was that a surge at the end of 2025 could temporarily push up services inflation, depending on the day the Office for National Statistics measured them. In the end, the rise was again relatively modest by historical standards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，机票价格。这些价格在圣诞节期间尤其波动。2024 年那时机票价格的上涨异常温和，人们担心 2025 年底的激增可能会暂时推高服务通胀，具体取决于国家统计局测量的日期。最终，历史标准下的上涨再次相对温和。</p>
</div><p>Obviously, this is all just noise. And more importantly, we calculate the Bank of England’s preferred gauge of “core services” inflation – which excludes certain volatile/indexed categories – at 4%, as it has been for three months now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，这些都只是噪音。更重要的是，我们计算出的英格兰银行偏好的 “核心服务” 通胀指标——排除某些波动性/指数化类别——为 4%，已经维持了三个月。</p>
</div><p>That suggests nothing here is going to move the dial at the February Bank of England meeting. Officials will want to see more progress on services inflation. And given officials have hinted at a slower pace of cuts, we doubt the Bank will do anything other than keep rates unchanged at its next decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明，在 2 月份的英格兰银行会议上，没有任何因素会改变局势。官员们希望看到服务通胀的更多进展。考虑到官员们暗示降息的速度会放缓，我们怀疑英格兰银行在下次决策时会采取任何行动，除了维持利率不变。</p>
</div><p>But as we said at the start, the inflation backdrop should look a lot better from April. A whole range of services prices are only updated once annually, at the start of the financial year. We already know that last year’s 25% rise in water and sewerage (the latter being a service) won’t be replicated to anywhere near the same extent this year. Nor are we seeing a repeat rise in vehicle duties. That and other more muted price rises this year should bring services inflation down from 4.5% in December to around 3% post-April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但正如我们在开头所说，通胀背景在 4 月看起来会好得多。许多服务价格每年只更新一次，在财政年度开始时。我们已经知道，去年的水和污水费用（后者是一项服务）上涨 25% 不会在今年以相同程度重复。我们也没有看到车辆税的重复上涨。今年其他更温和的价格上涨应该会将服务通胀从 12 月的 4.5% 降至 4 月后的约 3%。</p>
</div><p><strong>'Core services' inflation sits at 4%</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>'核心服务'通胀为 4%</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/210126-chart-boeservices.png" alt="" original-src="https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/210126-chart-boeservices.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Macrobond, ING calculations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Macrobond，ING 计算</p>
</div><p>What does that mean for rate cuts? The Bank will be keen to see April data – released in May – but that doesn’t preclude action before then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对降息意味着什么？英格兰银行将密切关注 4 月的数据——将在 5 月发布——但这并不排除在此之前采取行动。</p>
</div><p>We think that if the weak hiring backdrop and benign wage growth trend continues over the next couple of reports, the Bank will be comfortable cutting rates in March. Then, if we’re right about the April inflation data, it should feel able to cut rates again in June. That would leave the Bank Rate at 3.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们认为，如果疲软的招聘背景和温和的工资增长趋势在接下来的几份报告中持续，英格兰银行将在 3 月降息感到舒适。然后，如果我们对 4 月通胀数据的预测正确，英格兰银行应该能够在 6 月再次降息。这将使银行利率保持在 3.25%。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>FX Daily: Not Trusting The Dollar Sell-Off</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外汇日报：不信任美元抛售</p>
</div><p>Rates Spark: Yields Have Spiked, But Levels Are Far From Overly Elevated</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率快讯：收益率飙升，但水平远未过高</p>
</div><p>Slowing UK Wage Growth Points To Spring Rate Cut</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国工资增长放缓指向春季降息</p>
</div>

UK Inflation Likely To Fall To 2% In April Despite Latest Uptick

- 英国通胀在 12 月上升至 3.4%，预计未来将降至 2%。  
- 食品通胀从 4.2% 升至 4.5%，但仍低于英格兰银行的预测。  
- 英格兰银行可能在 3 月和 6 月降息，具体取决于 4 月的数据。

尽管最近有所上升，英国通胀率可能在 4 月份降至 2%