<p>作者：Greg Robb</p><p>我们是否已经见证了可预见未来的最后一次降息？</p><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在 12 月初的新闻发布会上。</p><p>美联储官员明确表示，他们打算在本周维持基准利率不变，这让经济学家们开始讨论一个更大的问题——中央银行将保持观望多久？</p><p>对快速进一步降息的预期正在消退。市场认为在七月之前不会有其他动作。但等待六个月也使得任何行动的前景变得黯淡。</p><p>“他们越是拖延降息，从经济角度证明进一步放松的必要性就越高，” 富国银行高级经济学家莎拉·豪斯表示。</p><p>虽然在某个时刻进一步降息仍然是共识，但一些经济学家开始对此表示怀疑。</p><p>摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利预测，美联储今年将保持不变。他表示，下一次美联储的举措将在 2027 年下半年加息。</p><p>美联储官员将于周二开始为期两天的会议，并将在周三东部时间下午 2 点宣布决定。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在半小时后召开新闻发布会。美联储自 9 月以来在连续三次会议上将基准利率下调了 75 个基点，降至 3.5%-3.75% 的区间。</p><p>尽管通胀仍远高于美联储 2% 的目标，但大多数美联储官员支持去年的放松政策，因为劳动力市场看起来疲软。官员们希望降低通胀，但不希望以高昂的代价导致经济衰退。</p><p>阅读：美联储面临严峻的里程碑——通胀超过目标五年</p><p>特朗普总统的关税政策继续扰乱经济。面对自二战以来未曾见过的政策选择，经济学家们对前景持谨慎态度。</p><p>自去年秋季政府关门结束以来，政府统计数据显示的经济活动似乎比许多人预期的更为稳健，劳动力市场也更为稳定。失业率在 12 月降至 4.4%。尽管如此，经济学家们似乎仍然谨慎。</p><p>在一次采访中，汇丰银行首席美国经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示，美联储正处于 “进退两难” 的境地。一方面，通胀依然顽固；另一方面，似乎没有收入增长来帮助增强劳动力市场并推动经济发展。</p><p>在美联储内部，不仅存在对招聘缺乏动力的担忧，还有对持续高企的价格压力的关注，斯蒂菲尔的首席经济学家林赛·皮耶加在给客户的报告中表示。她还提到，一些美联储官员担心任何进一步的政策放松可能会加速通胀。</p><p>美联储官员在没有明确证据表明通胀呈下降趋势之前，将不愿再次降息，前达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰在接受 CNBC 采访时表示。</p><p>“我们可能会看到它（温和通胀），但他们想要看到实际数据，” 卡普兰说。</p><p>预计通胀会改善，但要等到下半年。预计第一季度通胀会激增，因为公司重新调整价格。</p><p>金融市场预计在七月之前不会有首次降息，这恰好是在鲍威尔的任期于五月结束之后。</p><p>许多经济学家认为，新任美联储主席将迅速推动降息。几个月来，市场专业人士认为新主席的上任将自动意味着降息。</p><p>但债券市场已经改变了方向，似乎对这一前景反应消极，如果美联储大幅降息，长期利率将上升，波士顿学院经济学家布赖恩·贝瑟恩表示。</p><p>BMO 资本市场首席美国经济学家斯科特·安德森表示，他认为美联储周三的声明和鲍威尔的新闻发布会将呈现出鹰派倾向。</p><p>“目前美联储没有真正的紧迫感采取任何方向的行动，” 他在一次采访中表示。但安德森仍然预计今年将有三次降息，因为通胀降温。</p><p>高盛首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克尔预计将在六月降息，随后在九月进行本轮周期的最后一次降息，将利率降至 3.25% 至 3.5% 的区间。</p><p>“我们认为未来一两年的风险倾向于下行，因为我们认为加息的可能性相当小，但可以想象一些理由导致进一步降息，” 梅里克尔在给客户的报告中表示。</p><p>——Greg Robb</p><p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p><p>01-25-26 1513ET</p>

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<p>美联储预计本周将维持利率不变，经济学家们对这一政策将持续多久展开了讨论。虽然一些人预计今年晚些时候会降息，但摩根大通的迈克尔·费罗利等人预测美联储将在 2026 年之前保持利率不变。通胀仍高于目标水平，但劳动力市场的担忧使决策变得复杂。美联储官员持谨慎态度，预计即将发布的声明将带有鹰派基调。债券市场对激进的降息反应消极，一些经济学家预见到随着通胀降温，今年将有三次降息</p>

<p>By Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>Might we have already seen the last rate cut for the foreseeable future?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们是否已经见证了可预见未来的最后一次降息？</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears during his press conference in early December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在 12 月初的新闻发布会上。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve officials have signaled clearly that they intend to leave their benchmark interest rate unchanged this week, leaving economists to debate a larger question - how long will the central bank stay on the sidelines?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员明确表示，他们打算在本周维持基准利率不变，这让经济学家们开始讨论一个更大的问题——中央银行将保持观望多久？</p>
</div><p>Expectations of quick further cuts are evaporating. The market doesn't see another move until July. But waiting for six months also dims the prospect of any move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对快速进一步降息的预期正在消退。市场认为在七月之前不会有其他动作。但等待六个月也使得任何行动的前景变得黯淡。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The longer they wait to cut, the higher the hurdle becomes to justify on economic grounds the need to ease further,&#34; said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他们越是拖延降息，从经济角度证明进一步放松的必要性就越高，” 富国银行高级经济学家莎拉·豪斯表示。</p>
</div><p>While further cuts at some point remain the consensus, a few economists are starting to doubt this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然在某个时刻进一步降息仍然是共识，但一些经济学家开始对此表示怀疑。</p>
</div><p>Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, forecasts the Fed will be on hold all year. The next Fed move will be a hike in the latter half of 2027, he said,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利预测，美联储今年将保持不变。他表示，下一次美联储的举措将在 2027 年下半年加息。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials will meet for two days starting Tuesday and announce a decision at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will follow up with a press conference a half hour later. The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points at three successive meetings starting in September to a range of 3.5%-3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员将于周二开始为期两天的会议，并将在周三东部时间下午 2 点宣布决定。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在半小时后召开新闻发布会。美联储自 9 月以来在连续三次会议上将基准利率下调了 75 个基点，降至 3.5%-3.75% 的区间。</p>
</div><p>Even though inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, the majority of Fed officials backed last year's easing because the labor market was looking frail. Officials want to get inflation lower but not at the high cost of a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管通胀仍远高于美联储 2% 的目标，但大多数美联储官员支持去年的放松政策，因为劳动力市场看起来疲软。官员们希望降低通胀，但不希望以高昂的代价导致经济衰退。</p>
</div><p>Read: The Fed faces a grim milestone - inflation above target for five years</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：美联储面临严峻的里程碑——通胀超过目标五年</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump's tariff policy continues to roil the economy. Faced with policy choices not seen since before World War II, economists are cautious in their outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统的关税政策继续扰乱经济。面对自二战以来未曾见过的政策选择，经济学家们对前景持谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>Government statistics since the end of last fall's government shutdown seem to show more solid activity and a more stable labor market than many had expected. The unemployment rate retreated to 4.4% in December. Still, economists seem wary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自去年秋季政府关门结束以来，政府统计数据显示的经济活动似乎比许多人预期的更为稳健，劳动力市场也更为稳定。失业率在 12 月降至 4.4%。尽管如此，经济学家们似乎仍然谨慎。</p>
</div><p>In an interview, Diane Swonk, chief U.S. economist at HSBC, said the Fed was &#34;between a rock and hard place.&#34; On the one hand, inflation has been sticky. On the other hand, there seems to be no income growth to help strengthen the labor market and power the economy forward, she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一次采访中，汇丰银行首席美国经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示，美联储正处于 “进退两难” 的境地。一方面，通胀依然顽固；另一方面，似乎没有收入增长来帮助增强劳动力市场并推动经济发展。</p>
</div><p>At the Fed, there is a divide between not only those increasingly concerned about a lack of momentum in hiring and those still focused on lingering elevated price pressures, said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, in a note to clients. There is also worry among at least some Fed officials that any further policy easing could risk an acceleration in inflation, she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储内部，不仅存在对招聘缺乏动力的担忧，还有对持续高企的价格压力的关注，斯蒂菲尔的首席经济学家林赛·皮耶加在给客户的报告中表示。她还提到，一些美联储官员担心任何进一步的政策放松可能会加速通胀。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials will be reluctant to cut again until there is clear evidence that inflation is on a downward trend, said former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, in a CNBC interview.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员在没有明确证据表明通胀呈下降趋势之前，将不愿再次降息，前达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰在接受 CNBC 采访时表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We may get it [soft inflation], but they want to see it,&#34; Kaplan said,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们可能会看到它（温和通胀），但他们想要看到实际数据，” 卡普兰说。</p>
</div><p>Improvement in inflation is expected, but not until the second half of the year. Inflation is expected to spike in the first quarter as companies reset their prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计通胀会改善，但要等到下半年。预计第一季度通胀会激增，因为公司重新调整价格。</p>
</div><p>Financial markets don't have the first rate cut priced in until July, after Powell's term as chair ends in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融市场预计在七月之前不会有首次降息，这恰好是在鲍威尔的任期于五月结束之后。</p>
</div><p>Many economists think the new Fed chair will push quickly for lower rates. For months, market pros thought the new chair would automatically mean rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多经济学家认为，新任美联储主席将迅速推动降息。几个月来，市场专业人士认为新主席的上任将自动意味着降息。</p>
</div><p>But the bond market has switched gears and looks like it would react negatively to that prospect, pushing long-term rates higher if the Fed cuts aggressively, said Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但债券市场已经改变了方向，似乎对这一前景反应消极，如果美联储大幅降息，长期利率将上升，波士顿学院经济学家布赖恩·贝瑟恩表示。</p>
</div><p>Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets, said he thinks there will be a hawkish tilt to the Fed's statement Wednesday and to Powell's press conference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BMO 资本市场首席美国经济学家斯科特·安德森表示，他认为美联储周三的声明和鲍威尔的新闻发布会将呈现出鹰派倾向。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There's no real urgency for the Fed to act in any direction at the moment,&#34; he said in an interview. But Anderson still expects three cuts this year as inflation cools.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“目前美联储没有真正的紧迫感采取任何方向的行动，” 他在一次采访中表示。但安德森仍然预计今年将有三次降息，因为通胀降温。</p>
</div><p>David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, sees a rate cut in June followed by a final cut to the cycle in September, bringing rates down to a range of 3.25% to 3.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克尔预计将在六月降息，随后在九月进行本轮周期的最后一次降息，将利率降至 3.25% 至 3.5% 的区间。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We see the risks over the next year or two as tilted to the downside because we think hikes are quite unlikely, but could imagine a few reasons for additional cuts,&#34; Mericle said in a note to clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为未来一两年的风险倾向于下行，因为我们认为加息的可能性相当小，但可以想象一些理由导致进一步降息，” 梅里克尔在给客户的报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>-Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>01-25-26 1513ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>01-25-26 1513ET</p>
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预计美联储本周将维持现状。关键的问题是这种状态会持续多久？