<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/20260126_1159_Image-Generation_simple_compose_01kfwfvg6be4hvw5mqhh1cke9x.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/20260126_1159_Image-Generation_simple_compose_01kfwfvg6be4hvw5mqhh1cke9x.png"/></p>
<p>英国经济在经历数月的不确定性后，正显现出更清晰的复苏迹象，商业信心有所改善，消费者的悲观情绪略有减轻。</p>
<p>这一变化发生在财政部长瑞秋·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）于 11 月发表年度预算声明之后，当时家庭和雇主仍在适应疲弱的增长和顽固的价格压力。</p>
<p>上周发布的调查显示，1 月份是自基尔·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）于 2024 年 7 月成为首相以来，企业表现最好的一个月。</p>
<p>消费者信心也有所上升，达到了自去年 8 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>官方数据显示，12 月份零售销售量以自 4 月以来最快的年增速上升，进一步增强了乐观情绪。</p>
<p>尽管如此，英国的复苏仍然不均衡。劳动力市场依然显得疲软，部分原因与里夫斯去年引入的工资税增加有关。</p>
<p>通货膨胀仍高于其他主要发达经济体，使得英国在七国集团中面临最强的价格压力。</p>
<h2>商业反弹引起关注</h2>
<p>商业调查一直是经济稳定的强烈信号之一。采购经理人指数数据显示，本月活动的上升速度是自 2024 年 4 月以来最快的，主要由服务行业推动。</p>
<p>工厂的情况也有所改善，订单量以近四年来最快的速度增长。</p>
<p>在经历了一段时间的投资决策犹豫、需求放缓和严格的成本控制后，这一反弹显得尤为突出。考虑到服务业在英国经济中的重要性，服务活动尤其重要。</p>
<p>对于制造商而言，订单量的改善表明需求不再像许多公司担心的那样疲弱。</p>
<p>然而，分析师警告不要假设信心的跃升会持续。</p>
<p>尽管 1 月份有所上升，标准普尔全球采购经理人指数仍低于斯塔默执政前的平均水平，显示出活动仍未完全恢复到疫情前和随后的经济冲击之前的正常水平。</p>
<h2>消费者略显积极</h2>
<p>消费者仍然谨慎，但一些指标表明情绪开始转变。GfK 的消费者信心指数本月再次小幅上升，达到了自 2024 年 8 月以来的最佳水平。</p>
<p>这一改善暗示家庭在消费决策上可能感到的焦虑较 2024 年末有所减轻。</p>
<p>然而，其他指标却显示出不同的情况。标准普尔全球表示，其较短的 1 月份调查显示消费者信心降至九个月来的最低点。</p>
<p>这种对比突显了信心的脆弱性，以及如果家庭感受到成本上升或工作不安全，态度可能迅速改变。</p>
<p>消费数据也呈现出混合的趋势。官方数据显示，12 月份零售销售量在 10 月和 11 月疲软的结果后意外上升。</p>
<p>这一增长是自 4 月以来最快的年增速，提供了一些安慰，表明需求在年末保持稳定。</p>
<p>然而，其他地方的较软数据表明，消费复苏可能并不广泛。</p>
<p>一些主要零售商报告了令人失望的年末销售，强调消费者仍然很挑剔，尤其是在非必需品的购买上。</p>
<h2>GDP 意外增长增添改善信号</h2>
<p>英国的产出数据在去年底也交出了强于预期的成绩。经济在 11 月份增长了 0.3%，标志着自 6 月以来最快的月度增长。</p>
<p>这些数据令经济学家感到惊讶，并提供了更多证据，表明在新年到来之前，增长势头强于预期。</p>
<p>部分增长来自捷豹路虎（Jaguar Land Rover）在经历网络攻击导致活动中断后恢复全面生产。产出的反弹帮助提升了制造业表现，并推动了 GDP 的整体增长。</p>
<p>强于预期的服务活动也发挥了作用，再次突显了服务业通常是英国经济表现的关键驱动力。</p>
<p>虽然一个月的数据并不能确立明确的趋势，但 11 月份的读数表明，经济在 2024 年下半年比许多指标所暗示的更具韧性。</p>
<h2>通胀和招聘仍然是薄弱环节</h2>
<p>尽管活动信号有所改善，通货膨胀仍然是一个持续的挑战。</p>
<p>消费者价格增长在 12 月份超出预期上升至 3.4%，给家庭预算带来压力，并使更广泛的经济形势复杂化。</p>
<p>英国继续在七国集团中记录最高的通货膨胀，进一步强调了生活成本压力为何在经济和政治辩论中占据中心地位。</p>
<p>预计通货膨胀在未来几个月将急剧放缓。英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，预计到 4 月或 5 月将接近央行的 2% 目标。</p>
<p>然而，并非所有政策制定者都对此感到同样的安心。</p>
<p>梅根·格林（Megan Greene）周五表示，她仍然对持续的工资驱动的通胀压力感到担忧，这可能导致价格增长在更长时间内保持高位。</p>
<p>与此同时，劳动力市场几乎没有改善的迹象。</p>
<p>12 月份，工资员工人数下降幅度为 2020 年 11 月以来最大，尽管在此期间的类似早期估计后来被上调。</p>
<p>即便如此，最新的下降加剧了对招聘需求减弱的担忧。</p>
<p>商业调查也指向同一方向。采购经理人指数数据显示，雇主对招聘仍持谨慎态度，服务行业的就业在 1 月份的下降速度快于 12 月份。</p>
<p>这表明，尽管商业产出和信心可能在改善，但公司在成本仍高和需求不确定的情况下，仍对新员工的承诺持谨慎态度。</p>
<p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《商业信心提升英国经济，但通胀和就业仍然令人担忧》。</p>

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<p>英国经济在财政部长 Rachel Reeves 的预算声明后，显示出复苏的迹象，商业信心和消费者情绪有所改善。商业调查显示，自 2024 年 7 月以来，活动表现最佳的月份，而零售销售则以自 4 月以来最快的速度增长。然而，挑战依然存在，包括疲软的劳动市场和持续的通货膨胀，后者在七国集团中处于最高水平。尽管 11 月份的 GDP 增长超出预期，达到 0.3%，分析师警告称，复苏可能并不全面，消费者信心依然脆弱</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/20260126_1159_Image-Generation_simple_compose_01kfwfvg6be4hvw5mqhh1cke9x.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/20260126_1159_Image-Generation_simple_compose_01kfwfvg6be4hvw5mqhh1cke9x.png"/></p>
<p>Britain’s economy is showing clearer signs of life after months of uncertainty, with business confidence improving and consumers becoming slightly less pessimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国经济在经历数月的不确定性后，正显现出更清晰的复苏迹象，商业信心有所改善，消费者的悲观情绪略有减轻。</p>
</div><p>The shift follows finance minister Rachel Reeves’ annual budget statement in November, which came at a time when households and employers were still adjusting to weak growth and stubborn price pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化发生在财政部长瑞秋·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）于 11 月发表年度预算声明之后，当时家庭和雇主仍在适应疲弱的增长和顽固的价格压力。</p>
</div><p>Surveys published last week suggested January was the best month for businesses since before Keir Starmer became prime minister in July 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周发布的调查显示，1 月份是自基尔·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）于 2024 年 7 月成为首相以来，企业表现最好的一个月。</p>
</div><p>Consumer confidence also moved higher, reaching its strongest reading since August last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者信心也有所上升，达到了自去年 8 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Official data added to the brighter tone, with retail sales volumes rising in December at the fastest annual pace since April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官方数据显示，12 月份零售销售量以自 4 月以来最快的年增速上升，进一步增强了乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>Still, Britain’s recovery remains uneven. The labour market continues to look subdued, partly linked to a payroll tax increase introduced by Reeves last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，英国的复苏仍然不均衡。劳动力市场依然显得疲软，部分原因与里夫斯去年引入的工资税增加有关。</p>
</div><p>Inflation remains higher than in other major advanced economies, leaving the UK with the strongest price pressures among the Group of Seven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通货膨胀仍高于其他主要发达经济体，使得英国在七国集团中面临最强的价格压力。</p>
</div><h2>Business bounce-back gains attention</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>商业反弹引起关注</h2>
</div><p>Business surveys have been one of the strongest signals that the economy is stabilising. Purchasing managers’ index data showed the fastest upturn in activity this month since April 2024, led by services firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商业调查一直是经济稳定的强烈信号之一。采购经理人指数数据显示，本月活动的上升速度是自 2024 年 4 月以来最快的，主要由服务行业推动。</p>
</div><p>Factories also reported improving conditions, with order books expanding at the quickest pace in almost four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工厂的情况也有所改善，订单量以近四年来最快的速度增长。</p>
</div><p>The rebound stands out after a long stretch of hesitant investment decisions, slower demand, and tight cost control. Services activity has been particularly important, given its weight in the UK economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了一段时间的投资决策犹豫、需求放缓和严格的成本控制后，这一反弹显得尤为突出。考虑到服务业在英国经济中的重要性，服务活动尤其重要。</p>
</div><p>For manufacturers, the improvement in order books suggests demand is no longer as weak as many companies feared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于制造商而言，订单量的改善表明需求不再像许多公司担心的那样疲弱。</p>
</div><p>However, analysts have warned against assuming the jump in confidence will last.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，分析师警告不要假设信心的跃升会持续。</p>
</div><p>Despite January’s rise, the S&amp;P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index remains below its pre-COVID average under Starmer, showing that activity is still not fully back to the levels that were normal before the pandemic and the subsequent economic shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 1 月份有所上升，标准普尔全球采购经理人指数仍低于斯塔默执政前的平均水平，显示出活动仍未完全恢复到疫情前和随后的经济冲击之前的正常水平。</p>
</div><h2>Consumers turn slightly more positive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>消费者略显积极</h2>
</div><p>Consumers are still cautious, but some indicators suggest sentiment is beginning to shift. GfK’s consumer confidence index edged higher again this month, reaching its best level since August 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者仍然谨慎，但一些指标表明情绪开始转变。GfK 的消费者信心指数本月再次小幅上升，达到了自 2024 年 8 月以来的最佳水平。</p>
</div><p>That improvement hints that households may be feeling less anxious about spending decisions compared with late 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一改善暗示家庭在消费决策上可能感到的焦虑较 2024 年末有所减轻。</p>
</div><p>Other measures, though, tell a different story. S&amp;P Global said its shorter January survey showed consumer sentiment slipping to a nine-month low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，其他指标却显示出不同的情况。标准普尔全球表示，其较短的 1 月份调查显示消费者信心降至九个月来的最低点。</p>
</div><p>The contrast highlights how fragile confidence remains, and how quickly attitudes can change if households sense rising costs or job insecurity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种对比突显了信心的脆弱性，以及如果家庭感受到成本上升或工作不安全，态度可能迅速改变。</p>
</div><p>Spending data has also been mixed. Official figures showed retail sales volumes rose unexpectedly in December after weak results in October and November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费数据也呈现出混合的趋势。官方数据显示，12 月份零售销售量在 10 月和 11 月疲软的结果后意外上升。</p>
</div><p>The increase was the fastest annual pace since April, offering some reassurance that demand held up heading into the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一增长是自 4 月以来最快的年增速，提供了一些安慰，表明需求在年末保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>Yet softer readings elsewhere suggest the recovery in spending may not be broad-based.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，其他地方的较软数据表明，消费复苏可能并不广泛。</p>
</div><p>Some major retailers have reported underwhelming end-of-year sales, underlining that consumers are still selective, particularly for discretionary purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些主要零售商报告了令人失望的年末销售，强调消费者仍然很挑剔，尤其是在非必需品的购买上。</p>
</div><h2>GDP surprise adds to improving signals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>GDP 意外增长增添改善信号</h2>
</div><p>Britain’s output data also delivered a stronger-than-expected reading late last year. The economy grew by 0.3% in November, marking the fastest monthly rise since June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国的产出数据在去年底也交出了强于预期的成绩。经济在 11 月份增长了 0.3%，标志着自 6 月以来最快的月度增长。</p>
</div><p>The figures surprised economists and offered more evidence that growth momentum was stronger than expected ahead of the new year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数据令经济学家感到惊讶，并提供了更多证据，表明在新年到来之前，增长势头强于预期。</p>
</div><p>Part of the boost came from Jaguar Land Rover returning to full production after a cyberattack disrupted activity earlier. The rebound in output helped lift manufacturing performance and contributed to the overall rise in GDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分增长来自捷豹路虎（Jaguar Land Rover）在经历网络攻击导致活动中断后恢复全面生产。产出的反弹帮助提升了制造业表现，并推动了 GDP 的整体增长。</p>
</div><p>Stronger-than-expected services activity also played a role, once again highlighting how the services sector is often the key driver for UK economic performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>强于预期的服务活动也发挥了作用，再次突显了服务业通常是英国经济表现的关键驱动力。</p>
</div><p>While one month’s data does not set a clear trend, the November reading suggests the economy was more resilient than many indicators had implied in the second half of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然一个月的数据并不能确立明确的趋势，但 11 月份的读数表明，经济在 2024 年下半年比许多指标所暗示的更具韧性。</p>
</div><h2>Inflation and hiring remain weak spots</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通胀和招聘仍然是薄弱环节</h2>
</div><p>Despite improved activity signals, inflation remains a persistent challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管活动信号有所改善，通货膨胀仍然是一个持续的挑战。</p>
</div><p>Consumer price growth rose more than forecast to 3.4% in December, keeping pressure on household budgets and complicating the wider economic picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者价格增长在 12 月份超出预期上升至 3.4%，给家庭预算带来压力，并使更广泛的经济形势复杂化。</p>
</div><p>The UK continues to record the highest inflation among the G7, reinforcing why cost-of-living pressures remain central to economic and political debate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国继续在七国集团中记录最高的通货膨胀，进一步强调了生活成本压力为何在经济和政治辩论中占据中心地位。</p>
</div><p>Inflation is expected to slow sharply in the coming months. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has said it is likely to be close to the central bank’s 2% target by April or May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计通货膨胀在未来几个月将急剧放缓。英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）表示，预计到 4 月或 5 月将接近央行的 2% 目标。</p>
</div><p>However, not all policymakers share the same level of comfort.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，并非所有政策制定者都对此感到同样的安心。</p>
</div><p>Megan Greene said on Friday she remained concerned about lingering wage-driven inflation pressures, a factor that could keep price growth elevated for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>梅根·格林（Megan Greene）周五表示，她仍然对持续的工资驱动的通胀压力感到担忧，这可能导致价格增长在更长时间内保持高位。</p>
</div><p>The labour market, meanwhile, is showing little sign of improvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，劳动力市场几乎没有改善的迹象。</p>
</div><p>The number of payrolled workers fell in December by the most since November 2020, although similar early estimates during that period were later revised upwards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月份，工资员工人数下降幅度为 2020 年 11 月以来最大，尽管在此期间的类似早期估计后来被上调。</p>
</div><p>Even so, the latest drop has added to concerns that hiring demand is weakening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，最新的下降加剧了对招聘需求减弱的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Business surveys point in the same direction. The PMI data showed employers remained wary about recruitment, with employment in the services sector declining at a faster rate in January than in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商业调查也指向同一方向。采购经理人指数数据显示，雇主对招聘仍持谨慎态度，服务行业的就业在 1 月份的下降速度快于 12 月份。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that while business output and confidence may be improving, companies are still cautious about committing to new staff as costs remain high and demand remains uncertain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明，尽管商业产出和信心可能在改善，但公司在成本仍高和需求不确定的情况下，仍对新员工的承诺持谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>The post Business confidence lifts UK economy as inflation and jobs remain a worry appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《商业信心提升英国经济，但通胀和就业仍然令人担忧》。</p>
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Business confidence lifts UK economy as inflation and jobs remain a worry

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商业信心提升了英国经济，但通胀和就业问题仍然是令人担忧的因素