美国股市在过去几天经历了剧烈波动，最初对大型科技公司财报的乐观情绪推动标普 500 指数创下盘中新高，但随后对财报的失望反应以及美联储决定维持利率不变导致标普 500 指数急剧回落。
科技股的回调和 向小盘股的轮动 是 2026 年初主要的市场主题。截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，标普小盘股 600 指数的表现超越标普 500 指数 4%，得益于强劲的经济增长和稳健的企业盈利。
随着收益的广度开始超越大型股领头羊，现在可能是审视等权重策略的有趣时机，这种策略在设计上偏向小盘股，并提供比市值加权同行更广泛的市场覆盖。
图表 1 显示，标普 500 等权重指数在截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日的三个月内 超越市值加权的标普 500 指数 3%，这与市场集中度的下降相吻合，自 2025 年第三季度以来，标普 500 前 10 家公司总权重已降至 40% 以下。
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<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Equal-Weight-Has-Outperformed-and-Concentration-Has-Declined.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Equal-Weight-Has-Outperformed-and-Concentration-Has-Declined.jpg"/>
值得注意的是，市场参与度已超越大型股名称。 在 11 月初集中度达到峰值后，标普 500 的表现来源已在市值范围内发生变化。图表 2 显示，尽管前 100 家公司在 2025 年大部分时间内占据了指数收益的主要部分，但由于大型股的疲软，它们的贡献自那时起显著下降，超额收益已转向底部 400 家公司。
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<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-Contribution-to-SP-500-Performance-Has-Broadened-.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-Contribution-to-SP-500-Performance-Has-Broadened-.jpg"/>
行业层面的动态进一步解释了这一转变。在标普 500 等权重指数与标普 500 的 Brinson 行业归因中，图表 3 显示，标普 500 等权重指数在去年大部分时间的表现不佳以及随后相对于标普 500 的超额表现主要是由于在信息技术领域的低配， 这与该行业近期的困境一致。
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<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-Underweight-to-Information-Technology-Has-Been-a-Tailwind-for-Equal-Weight-Outperformance.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-Underweight-to-Information-Technology-Has-Been-a-Tailwind-for-Equal-Weight-Outperformance.jpg"/>
标普 500 等权重指数的因子特征也发挥了支持作用。除了其小盘股偏好外，标普 500 等权重指数历史上还持续倾向于价值股，而非动量股， 因为该策略的定义是定期从相对赢家中再平衡到相对输家。这些因素受益于市场广度的改善以及对大型成长股和动量股的轮动。值得注意的是，标普 500 价值股的表现超越了标普 500 成长股，而标普 500 动量指数在 1 月份迄今表现不及标普 500 指数 2%。
图表 4 显示，标普 500 动量指数极端相对超额表现的时期往往会被标普 500 等权重指数的超额表现所跟随， 反映了这两种方法之间自然的反向关系。考虑到标普 500 动量指数在 2025 年的卓越表现，这一历史趋势可能特别相关。
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<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-SP-500-Momentum-Index-and-SP-500-Equal-Weight-Index-Are-Inversely-Related.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-SP-500-Momentum-Index-and-SP-500-Equal-Weight-Index-Are-Inversely-Related.jpg"/>
如果大型科技公司面临的逆风持续恶化，市场广度的增加和对大型股的轮动可能会持续。我们知道，极端市场集中后的时期历史上与标普 500 等权重指数的超额表现相吻合，市场参与者理解该策略相对表现的来源和驱动因素可能是有益的。
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1《华尔街日报》，“小型股票创下周记录”，2026 年 1 月 16 日。
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更多来自此作者的文章：
时尚的晚周期：标普 500 市场领袖指数
闪闪发光的不仅仅是黄金：2025 年主题表现回顾
休斯顿，我们有一个指数：探索标普 Kensho 全球太空指数

美国股市经历了波动，最初由于大型科技公司财报带来的乐观情绪推动标普 500 指数创下新高，但随后因财报失望和美联储维持利率而急剧下跌。2026 年 1 月，标普小盘股 600 指数的表现超越标普 500 指数 4%，显示出对小盘股的偏好转变。标普 500 等权重指数的表现也优于市值加权指数，反映出市场参与度超越了大型股。如果大型科技公司面临的挑战持续，这一趋势可能会继续，暗示投资策略可能发生转变

U.S. equity markets have been whipsawed in the past few days, with initial optimism surrounding Big Tech earnings powering the S&amp;P 500® to an intraday high, and subsequent disappointing reactions to earnings coupled with the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady leading to a sharp retreat for The 500®.
<div class="lb-trans">美国股市在过去几天经历了剧烈波动，最初对大型科技公司财报的乐观情绪推动标普 500 指数创下盘中新高，但随后对财报的失望反应以及美联储决定维持利率不变导致标普 500 指数急剧回落。
</div>The pullback in Tech and the rotation toward small-cap stocks have been major market themes that have characterized the start of 2026.1 The S&amp;P SmallCap 600® has outperformed The 500® by 4% month-to-date as of Jan. 28, 2026, propelled by strong economic growth and robust corporate earnings.
<div class="lb-trans">科技股的回调和 向小盘股的轮动 是 2026 年初主要的市场主题。截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，标普小盘股 600 指数的表现超越标普 500 指数 4%，得益于强劲的经济增长和稳健的企业盈利。
</div>As the breadth of returns has started to expand beyond mega-cap leaders, it may be an interesting time to examine equal-weight strategies, which by design have a small-cap bias and offer a more broad-based footprint than their capitalization-weighted peers.
<div class="lb-trans">随着收益的广度开始超越大型股领头羊，现在可能是审视等权重策略的有趣时机，这种策略在设计上偏向小盘股，并提供比市值加权同行更广泛的市场覆盖。
</div>Exhibit 1 shows that the S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index outperformed the capitalization-weighted S&amp;P 500 by 3% over the three months ending Jan. 28, 2026, coinciding with a decline in market concentration, with the aggregate weight of The 500’s top 10 companies falling below 40% since Q3 2025.
<div class="lb-trans">图表 1 显示，标普 500 等权重指数在截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日的三个月内 超越市值加权的标普 500 指数 3%，这与市场集中度的下降相吻合，自 2025 年第三季度以来，标普 500 前 10 家公司总权重已降至 40% 以下。
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</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Equal-Weight-Has-Outperformed-and-Concentration-Has-Declined.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Equal-Weight-Has-Outperformed-and-Concentration-Has-Declined.jpg"/>
Notably, market participation has expanded beyond the mega-cap names. Following the peak in concentration in early November, the sources of the S&amp;P 500’s performance have shifted across the capitalization spectrum. Exhibit 2 shows that while the top 100 companies accounted for the majority of the index’s gains for most of 2025, mega-cap weakness has caused their contribution to decline considerably since then, as outperformance has shifted to the bottom 400 companies.
<div class="lb-trans">值得注意的是，市场参与度已超越大型股名称。 在 11 月初集中度达到峰值后，标普 500 的表现来源已在市值范围内发生变化。图表 2 显示，尽管前 100 家公司在 2025 年大部分时间内占据了指数收益的主要部分，但由于大型股的疲软，它们的贡献自那时起显著下降，超额收益已转向底部 400 家公司。
</div>(Click on image to enlarge)
<div class="lb-trans">(点击图片放大)
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-Contribution-to-SP-500-Performance-Has-Broadened-.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-Contribution-to-SP-500-Performance-Has-Broadened-.jpg"/>
Sector-level dynamics further explain this shift. In a Brinson sector attribution of the S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index versus the S&amp;P 500, Exhibit 3 shows that the S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index’s underperformance for most of last year and its subsequent outperformance relative to the S&amp;P 500 was largely driven by an underweight in Information Technology, consistent with the sector’s recent travails.
<div class="lb-trans">行业层面的动态进一步解释了这一转变。在标普 500 等权重指数与标普 500 的 Brinson 行业归因中，图表 3 显示，标普 500 等权重指数在去年大部分时间的表现不佳以及随后相对于标普 500 的超额表现主要是由于在信息技术领域的低配， 这与该行业近期的困境一致。
</div>(Click on image to enlarge)
<div class="lb-trans">(点击图片放大)
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-Underweight-to-Information-Technology-Has-Been-a-Tailwind-for-Equal-Weight-Outperformance.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-Underweight-to-Information-Technology-Has-Been-a-Tailwind-for-Equal-Weight-Outperformance.jpg"/>
The S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index’s factor profile has also played a supportive role. In addition to its small-cap bias, the S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index has historically maintained a persistent tilt toward value and away from momentum, as the strategy, by definition, regularly rebalances away from relative winners and toward relative losers. These factors have benefited from improving market breadth and a rotation away from large-cap growth- and momentum-oriented stocks. Notably, the S&amp;P 500 Value has outperformed S&amp;P 500 Growth, and the S&amp;P 500 Momentum Index has underperformed The 500 by 2% so far in January.
<div class="lb-trans">标普 500 等权重指数的因子特征也发挥了支持作用。除了其小盘股偏好外，标普 500 等权重指数历史上还持续倾向于价值股，而非动量股， 因为该策略的定义是定期从相对赢家中再平衡到相对输家。这些因素受益于市场广度的改善以及对大型成长股和动量股的轮动。值得注意的是，标普 500 价值股的表现超越了标普 500 成长股，而标普 500 动量指数在 1 月份迄今表现不及标普 500 指数 2%。
</div>Exhibit 4 shows that periods of extreme relative S&amp;P 500 Momentum Index outperformance have often been followed by outperformance in the S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index, reflecting the naturally inverse relationship between the two approaches. This historical trend may be particularly relevant following the S&amp;P 500 Momentum Index’s stellar outperformance in 2025.
<div class="lb-trans">图表 4 显示，标普 500 动量指数极端相对超额表现的时期往往会被标普 500 等权重指数的超额表现所跟随， 反映了这两种方法之间自然的反向关系。考虑到标普 500 动量指数在 2025 年的卓越表现，这一历史趋势可能特别相关。
</div>(Click on image to enlarge)
<div class="lb-trans">(点击图片放大)
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-SP-500-Momentum-Index-and-SP-500-Equal-Weight-Index-Are-Inversely-Related.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-SP-500-Momentum-Index-and-SP-500-Equal-Weight-Index-Are-Inversely-Related.jpg"/>
If the headwinds facing Big Tech continue to worsen, the increase in market breadth and the rotation away from large caps may potentially persist. We do know that periods following extreme market concentration have historically coincided with the outperformance of the S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index, and it may be useful for market participants to understand the sources and drivers of the strategy’s relative performance.
<div class="lb-trans">如果大型科技公司面临的逆风持续恶化，市场广度的增加和对大型股的轮动可能会持续。我们知道，极端市场集中后的时期历史上与标普 500 等权重指数的超额表现相吻合，市场参与者理解该策略相对表现的来源和驱动因素可能是有益的。
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</div>1 The Wall Street Journal, “Small Stocks Finish Week at Records,” Jan. 16, 2026.
<div class="lb-trans">1《华尔街日报》，“小型股票创下周记录”，2026 年 1 月 16 日。
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</div>More By This Author:
<div class="lb-trans">更多来自此作者的文章：
</div>Fashionably Late Cycle: The S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index
<div class="lb-trans">时尚的晚周期：标普 500 市场领袖指数
</div>All That Glitters Isn’t Just Gold: 2025 Thematic Performance In Review
<div class="lb-trans">闪闪发光的不仅仅是黄金：2025 年主题表现回顾
</div>Houston, We Have An Index: Exploring the S&amp;P Kensho Global Space Index
<div class="lb-trans">休斯顿，我们有一个指数：探索标普 Kensho 全球太空指数
</div>

Big Tech, Breadth And Balance

- 美国股市近期波动，受大科技企业财报影响，标普 500 指数先扬后抑。  
- 小型股表现优于大盘股，标普小型股 600 自 2026 年伊始已超出 4%。  
- 市场参与度扩大，平衡加权指数预计将在继续的市场宽松中表现突出。

大型科技公司、市场广度与平衡