<p>简单的理论是，<em>他们越大，跌得越狠</em>。由于白银的抛物线式上涨远比黄金更为惊人，因此可以推测，任何回调或修正对白银的影响将与黄金一样剧烈。尽管如此，推动这两种贵金属上涨的基本因素之间仍存在一些差异。</p>
<p>然而，另一个可以提出的观点是基于黄金与白银比率的均值回归理论。这一点在两周前的文章中已经提到过。</p>
<p>在今天早上的最新下跌之前，这一比率大约在 47 到 49 之间。这远低于上述所谓的 80/60 规则，尽管一些市场参与者会争辩说，真正的规则更接近 80/50。所以，你可以自行解读。</p>
<p>无论如何，我们在这个比率上已经达到了一个相当极端的点，这意味着最终必须有所改变。如果你相信历史先例和这两种贵金属的均值回归价值。</p>
<p>正如之前在链接的帖子中提到的：</p>
<p><em>&#34;这里要强调的并不是市场参与者低估了黄金，绝对不是。正如上面提到的，黄金本身在过去六个月中也上涨了超过 40%。对于任何资产类别来说，这都是一个令人难以置信的表现。</em></p>
<p><em>需要注意的是，当某样东西以过快的直线移动时，回调可能同样剧烈。</em></p>
<p><em>因此，尽管白银的上涨在新年开始时相当引人注目，并且今天突破了 90 美元，但请注意，这一上涨的速度开始挑战一些交易公理和舒适边界。</em></p>
<p><em>在这种情况下，贵金属的任何回调看起来都可能对白银造成比黄金更大的打击。如果你要依据与黄金 - 白银比率相关的均值回归理论。</em></p>
<p><em>从基本面来看，黄金和白银在中期内继续保持热度的星象依然对齐。但与共识交易一样，当过于单边的头寸时，总会存在一定的风险。而这就是回调，无论何时何种方式出现，都可能是迅速而剧烈的。</em></p>
<p>这只是需要记住的一点。</p>

实物白金股 ETF -ETFS

南方中证申万有色金属ETF

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

<p>最近贵金属的回调预计将对白银产生比黄金更严重的影响，因为白银的价格上涨幅度更大。目前黄金与白银的比率约为 47 到 49，暗示着潜在的均值回归，这表明白银的快速上涨可能会导致更剧烈的修正。尽管这两种金属都经历了显著的涨幅，但与白银上涨相关的波动性给投资者带来了风险。尽管中期前景对这两种金属仍然积极，但由于共识交易中可能出现剧烈回调，建议保持谨慎</p>

<p>The simple theory is that <em>the bigger they are, the harder they fall</em>. And with silver's parabolic rise being way more outrageous than gold, it stands to reason that any pullback or correction will be just as rough on the former than the latter. That despite the fact that there are some differences to the fundamental drivers behind the rally for both precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单的理论是，<em>他们越大，跌得越狠</em>。由于白银的抛物线式上涨远比黄金更为惊人，因此可以推测，任何回调或修正对白银的影响将与黄金一样剧烈。尽管如此，推动这两种贵金属上涨的基本因素之间仍存在一些差异。</p>
</div><p>However, the other point that can be made is based on the mean reversion theory with regards to the gold-to-silver ratio. This is something that was pointed out already two weeks ago here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，另一个可以提出的观点是基于黄金与白银比率的均值回归理论。这一点在两周前的文章中已经提到过。</p>
</div><p>The ratio before the latest drop this morning stood somewhere around 47 to 49. And that's well below the supposed 80/60 rule seen above, though some market players will argue that the true rule is something closer to 80/50. So, make what you will of that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天早上的最新下跌之前，这一比率大约在 47 到 49 之间。这远低于上述所谓的 80/60 规则，尽管一些市场参与者会争辩说，真正的规则更接近 80/50。所以，你可以自行解读。</p>
</div><p>In any case, we have reached a rather stretched point in the ratio here and that means something has got to give eventually. That if you believe historical precedence and the mean reversion value of the two precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，我们在这个比率上已经达到了一个相当极端的点，这意味着最终必须有所改变。如果你相信历史先例和这两种贵金属的均值回归价值。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned before this at the time of the linked post:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如之前在链接的帖子中提到的：</p>
</div><p><em>&#34;The point to be made here is not that market players are undervaluing gold, not by the littlest bit. As mentioned above, gold itself has also risen by over 40% in the last six months or so. And for any asset class, that's an incredible run on its own merit.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>&#34;这里要强调的并不是市场参与者低估了黄金，绝对不是。正如上面提到的，黄金本身在过去六个月中也上涨了超过 40%。对于任何资产类别来说，这都是一个令人难以置信的表现。</em></p>
</div><p><em>The thing to be mindful of here is that when something moves in a straight line too quickly, the pullbacks can be just as violent.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>需要注意的是，当某样东西以过快的直线移动时，回调可能同样剧烈。</em></p>
</div><p><em>So while the silver rally is quite something to behold in starting the new year and moving above $90 today, just be mindful that the pace of the rally is starting to challenge some trading axioms and comfort boundaries.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>因此，尽管白银的上涨在新年开始时相当引人注目，并且今天突破了 90 美元，但请注意，这一上涨的速度开始挑战一些交易公理和舒适边界。</em></p>
</div><p><em>In that lieu, any retracements in precious metals look likely to punish silver much more than it would gold. That is if you are to go by the mean reversion theory tied to the gold-to-silver ratio.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>在这种情况下，贵金属的任何回调看起来都可能对白银造成比黄金更大的打击。如果你要依据与黄金 - 白银比率相关的均值回归理论。</em></p>
</div><p><em>From a fundamental standpoint, the stars are continuing to stay aligned for gold and silver to stay hot over the medium-term. But as always with consensus trades, there's a certain element of danger when it comes to too one-sided positioning. And that is the pullbacks, whenever and however they come, can be sharp and violent.&#34;</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>从基本面来看，黄金和白银在中期内继续保持热度的星象依然对齐。但与共识交易一样，当过于单边的头寸时，总会存在一定的风险。而这就是回调，无论何时何种方式出现，都可能是迅速而剧烈的。</em></p>
</div><p>Just something to keep in mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这只是需要记住的一点。</p>
</div>

以下是贵金属回调为何对银的影响会大于对金的原因