<h2>稳定的迹象：随着美国关税风险对 GDP 的影响减弱，可靠的经济条件预计将加强银行的运营环境，惠誉表示</h2>
<p>惠誉评级已将台湾银行业的展望从 “恶化” 上调至 “中性”，理由是与美国达成的关税协议减少了台湾宏观经济环境的不确定性，并稳定了财务表现。</p>
<p>美国于 1 月 15 日同意将对台湾商品的关税从 20% 降低至 15%，且不叠加在现有的最惠国税率上，使台湾与日本、韩国和欧盟等主要竞争对手处于同一起跑线。</p>
<p>该协议还根据美国《贸易扩展法》第 232 条款，给予台湾制造的半导体及相关产品最惠国待遇。</p>
<p>根据该协议，台湾的半导体、电子制造服务、人工智能和能源公司将根据自身计划在美国投资 2500 亿美元，而台湾政府将提供 2500 亿美元的信用担保以促进这些投资。</p>
<p>惠誉在上周三的声明中表示：“随着贸易协议的达成，美国与台湾的关税相关风险已减轻，为台湾以出口为导向的经济带来了缓解。”</p>
<p>它补充道：“我们预计更稳定的经济条件将加强台湾的银行运营环境，行业资产质量和盈利能力可能会比我们之前的预测更强。”</p>
<p>惠誉预计台湾银行业的不良贷款比率将保持在 1% 以下，而之前预测为 1.2%，声明中提到。</p>
<p>预计该比率在去年为 0.7-0.8%。</p>
<p>评级机构还预计，今年银行业的经营利润与风险加权资产比率将保持在约 1.5% 的稳定水平，超过其早前预测的 1.2%，这得益于强劲的贷款收入和费用，以及较低的信贷成本。</p>
<p>预计银行业今年的贷款增长将达到高个位数，较惠誉之前约 5% 的预测有所上调，这主要受到海外投资和企业信贷需求增加的推动。</p>
<p>惠誉还表示，市场情绪预计将改善，支持财富管理费用和行业整体底线。</p>

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<p>惠誉评级已将台湾银行业的前景从 “恶化” 上调至 “中性”，原因是美国与台湾达成的关税协议减少了经济不确定性。美国将台湾商品的关税从 20% 降低至 15%，这将有利于台湾以出口为导向的经济。惠誉预计资产质量和盈利能力将改善，不良贷款比率将低于 1%，贷款增长将达到高个位数。预计银行业的经营利润与风险加权资产比率将保持在约 1.5% 的稳定水平，得益于强劲的贷款收入和较低的信贷成本</p>

<h2>SIGNS OF STABILITY:  With US tariff risks to GDP subsiding, reliable economic conditions are expected to reinforce the bank operating environment, Fitch said</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>稳定的迹象：随着美国关税风险对 GDP 的影响减弱，可靠的经济条件预计将加强银行的运营环境，惠誉表示</h2>
</div><p>Fitch Ratings has upgraded the outlook for Taiwan’s banking sector to “neutral” from “deteriorating,” citing a tariff agreement with the US that has reduced uncertainty in Taiwan’s macroeconomic environment and stabilized financial performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠誉评级已将台湾银行业的展望从 “恶化” 上调至 “中性”，理由是与美国达成的关税协议减少了台湾宏观经济环境的不确定性，并稳定了财务表现。</p>
</div><p>The US on Jan. 15 agreed to lower tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20 percent to 15 percent, without stacking them on existing most-favored-nation rates, placing Taiwan on equal footing with major competitors such as Japan, South Korea and the EU.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国于 1 月 15 日同意将对台湾商品的关税从 20% 降低至 15%，且不叠加在现有的最惠国税率上，使台湾与日本、韩国和欧盟等主要竞争对手处于同一起跑线。</p>
</div><p>The deal also grants Taiwan-made semiconductors and related products most-favorable-nation treatment under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该协议还根据美国《贸易扩展法》第 232 条款，给予台湾制造的半导体及相关产品最惠国待遇。</p>
</div><p>Under the agreement, Taiwanese semiconductor, electronics manufacturing service, artificial intelligence and energy companies would invest US$250 billion in the US based on their own plans, while the Taiwanese government would provide US$250 billion in credit guarantees to facilitate the investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据该协议，台湾的半导体、电子制造服务、人工智能和能源公司将根据自身计划在美国投资 2500 亿美元，而台湾政府将提供 2500 亿美元的信用担保以促进这些投资。</p>
</div><p>“US tariff-related risks to Taiwan’s GDP growth have subsided following the trade agreement, offering relief for Taiwan’s export-oriented economy,” Fitch said in a statement on Wednesday last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠誉在上周三的声明中表示：“随着贸易协议的达成，美国与台湾的关税相关风险已减轻，为台湾以出口为导向的经济带来了缓解。”</p>
</div><p>“We expect more stable economic conditions to reinforce Taiwan’s bank operating environment, with sector asset quality and profitability likely to be stronger than we previously forecast,” it added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它补充道：“我们预计更稳定的经济条件将加强台湾的银行运营环境，行业资产质量和盈利能力可能会比我们之前的预测更强。”</p>
</div><p>Fitch expects the Taiwanese banking sector to maintain an impaired loan ratio below 1 percent, compared with the 1.2 percent it previously forecast, the statement said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠誉预计台湾银行业的不良贷款比率将保持在 1% 以下，而之前预测为 1.2%，声明中提到。</p>
</div><p>The ratio is estimated to stand at 0.7-0.8 percent last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计该比率在去年为 0.7-0.8%。</p>
</div><p>The rating agency also expects the banking sector’s operating profit-to-risk-weighted-assets ratio to remain stable at about 1.5 percent this year, exceeding its earlier forecast of 1.2 percent, supported by robust lending income and fees, as well as lower credit costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>评级机构还预计，今年银行业的经营利润与风险加权资产比率将保持在约 1.5% 的稳定水平，超过其早前预测的 1.2%，这得益于强劲的贷款收入和费用，以及较低的信贷成本。</p>
</div><p>The banking sector is forecast to report loan growth in the high single digits this year, an upgrade from Fitch’s previous estimate of about 5 percent, driven by increased overseas investment and corporate credit demand, it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计银行业今年的贷款增长将达到高个位数，较惠誉之前约 5% 的预测有所上调，这主要受到海外投资和企业信贷需求增加的推动。</p>
</div><p>Market sentiment is also expected to improve, supporting wealth management fees and the sector’s overall bottom line, Fitch added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠誉还表示，市场情绪预计将改善，支持财富管理费用和行业整体底线。</p>
</div>

惠誉在达成关税协议后上调了对银行的展望