<p><strong>土拨鼠日</strong> 是周一，因此我们将看看这场令人震惊的寒冬（在美国大部分地区和市场）是否会很快被显著的洗盘和反弹所解除（或者如果周末伊朗可能出现积极消息，则只是小幅反弹；尽管海军和空军的部署暗示着即将发生的 “行动”，而不是某种 “协议”.. 鉴于特殊飞机（信号情报飞机）通过西班牙飞越大西洋；因此它们通常不会被部署，除非有可能需要它们的事情发生。</p>
<p>因此，尽管这暗示着冲突即将来临（沙特和以色列的战略家们... 奇怪的同盟本周访问五角大楼，有人会这么说）。因此，除了后续被迫清算外，很多事情取决于本周末来自华盛顿和中东的消息；不仅仅是德黑兰是否谈论谈判，而是是否承诺 “自由”，而不是谋杀他们的无辜者。</p>
<p>这与中国是否真的出售了更多美国资产有关；日本银行的行动（或不行动）；这两者最近在 “战争鼓声” 的背景下显得微不足道，因为这显然占据了中心舞台。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NYqif70YCxGb4vTgjzMKoR0hUIiFAYsZKEdeOvuk-ExMmAM8hqmQlRbG2OeObC-BhbxI2KOmhz5ZnYNOacTCJlRzEmKKhWQ-Al37u9TkovfxOYNODPV5RxwOZx08DplJXWx5bSrNXOmi24pNqilz46mk-agIA=s0-d-e1-ft?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/675da1c4-8d18-4327-82d5-bc8e38f5c91e.jpg?rdr=true" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NYqif70YCxGb4vTgjzMKoR0hUIiFAYsZKEdeOvuk-ExMmAM8hqmQlRbG2OeObC-BhbxI2KOmhz5ZnYNOacTCJlRzEmKKhWQ-Al37u9TkovfxOYNODPV5RxwOZx08DplJXWx5bSrNXOmi24pNqilz46mk-agIA=s0-d-e1-ft#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/675da1c4-8d18-4327-82d5-bc8e38f5c91e.jpg?rdr=true"/></p>
<p>市场的基调显然是焦虑的。AI 股票的基调也转向下行，这些股票在没有增长的情况下筹集了惊人的资本，而主要公司无法展示任何增长。这种情绪已经传导到较小的公司；但它们正处于一个合理的资本筹集和为未来投资的增长阶段。</p>
<p>因此，我增加了一些头寸，并可能在下周 “如果或在事件” 波斯湾地区实际发生战斗的情况下再做更多。如果伊朗敢于（如宣传所暗示）攻击美国林肯号航母（我们两周前写过它正前往那里，因此不期望危机在那之前达到高潮，前提是伊朗没有试图进行先发制人的打击；他们没有，除了对那些绝望寻求摆脱激进教士压迫的公民... 坦率地说，我希望英国和法国的人们注意到，在欧洲或美国城市中对德黑兰政权的抗议很少；这确实使负责任的人注意到伊斯兰教徒杀害自己的公民，在对政权发起全面革命之前，这是完全合理的。）</p>
<p>所以我认为市场很糟糕吗？当然。你认为这会在冒着一周（或更长时间）摧毁伊朗 “绝大多数” 军事力量的风险下得到解决吗？可能会这样；但很难说。伊朗可能认为他们可以用 “蜂群” 无人机和快艇攻击我们的航母；也许他们会。我不知道我们是否真的能 “防御” 无人机蜂群（在以色列和美国对伊朗的攻击做出反应时做到了；但并不是 100% 且没有反无人机、激光等的情况下成本非常高；所有这些都存在，但数量不多 “还没”... 但我确实相信伊朗的实际海军可以在几个小时内被击沉。</p>
<p>如果有什么的话，我会担心激进的伊斯兰主义者或亲政权的 “恐怖主义在世界各地的不同地方”... 包括被建议渗透到美国境内的伊朗政权伊朗革命卫队（IRGC）特工。</p>
<p><strong>市场透视：</strong> 在明显的广泛下跌情况下，剖析图表和技术水平几乎没有意义，前方的 “军事周末”（伊朗）也有限。</p>
<p>因此，知道可能会有几天的联邦停摆（因此如果一切在新的一周早期得到解决就没有太大相关性）；当然还有下一任美联储主席的任命（除此之外没有更多需要说的，因为他在鸽派或鹰派货币政策方面都采取了两种立场）；还有对伊朗的行动威胁，这可能会反击（无论我们可能成功消灭可怕的伊斯兰政权）甚至袭击沙特的石油设施；你知道这对油价的短暂影响意味着什么（如果发生的话）。</p>
<p>因此显然有很多 “如果”，在某些情况下我在仅仅几个新时期的股票中增加了赌注，特别是在它们突破技术支撑之后；希望这会触发一些止损并构成洗盘。然而，这并不能回答关于周一开盘或与本周滑落相关的残余性质的保证金压力的问题，即使之后反弹。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NbqfMfJrB3q1IhA6KjMgxmmMZAtQr3ri_p9JSzB7nBpLTcrBQcNMAYOisCoRCqK45tuUm3IVqYPrkCiq9b3M-AoDThldLpwiPC4ByfJS703j36xyYzEdNQOnfULXWG9C0kZ15_2FwDGmIbCmYpFTZFSWB0bEw=s0-d-e1-ft?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/74731ef0-28f7-449a-8c10-de62217693a4.jpg?rdr=true" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NbqfMfJrB3q1IhA6KjMgxmmMZAtQr3ri_p9JSzB7nBpLTcrBQcNMAYOisCoRCqK45tuUm3IVqYPrkCiq9b3M-AoDThldLpwiPC4ByfJS703j36xyYzEdNQOnfULXWG9C0kZ15_2FwDGmIbCmYpFTZFSWB0bEw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/74731ef0-28f7-449a-8c10-de62217693a4.jpg?rdr=true"/></p>
<p>中国从伊朗获得大部分石油，因此他们对美国有一定程度的间接影响力，这是你通常听不到的... 因为他们在相对平静的时期积累了国债，并最近分发了一些。（再次关注石油。对市场或通货膨胀的影响远大于任何比特币/加密货币，我对此不信任。）</p>
<p>这是否是北京中共政权对他们如何影响我们市场的 “警告” 很难辨别。如果你看到特朗普总统计划于四月访问北京的行程被推迟或取消，你就会有一个暗示。我并不期望所有这些（围绕伊朗的中心）会出现看跌的最坏情况结果；但这就像一个人想要一份婚前协议的原因。希望最好；但为替代情景做好准备，以防万一。知道 “交易的另一边” 是什么。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NYjN5vfOiHKG_Qpy8scKuwvuFhlFitjqP3wEpKf78f-prDL6HN54TpTVo6r1pK5hQzmB8kFPb8jKajQGmnyL_QkD_eZnM5pDkvHA_1R_E2QRqjA39hOZYfUgicePabzrXaGIvCXbqYBi0Kf4H038vhnudeNbw=s0-d-e1-ft?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/3b5493b1-019e-447c-94a1-4cd61b3af2f6.jpg?rdr=true" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NYjN5vfOiHKG_Qpy8scKuwvuFhlFitjqP3wEpKf78f-prDL6HN54TpTVo6r1pK5hQzmB8kFPb8jKajQGmnyL_QkD_eZnM5pDkvHA_1R_E2QRqjA39hOZYfUgicePabzrXaGIvCXbqYBi0Kf4H038vhnudeNbw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/3b5493b1-019e-447c-94a1-4cd61b3af2f6.jpg?rdr=true"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>该作者的更多作品：</em></p>
<p>2023 年 1 月 26 日市场简报</p>
<p>2023 年 1 月 12 日市场简报</p>
<p>2023 年 1 月 5 日市场简报</p>

吉宏股份

<p>2024 年 2 月 2 日（星期一）的市场展望受到地缘政治紧张局势的影响，特别是关于伊朗及潜在军事行动的情况。市场情绪紧张，尤其是在人工智能股票方面，投资者对资本筹集和增长的担忧加剧。情况因可能的联邦政府停摆和新任美联储主席的任命而更加复杂。油价可能会受到与伊朗相关的任何冲突的影响，因为中国依赖伊朗的石油，这为市场动态增添了另一层复杂性。总体而言，投资者在周末即将发生的潜在发展面前感到不确定性依然存在</p>

<p><strong>Groundhog Day</strong> is Monday, so we'll see if the 'shadow' of this obscene cold winter blast (in most of America and the markets) is essentially disarmed soon with a notable washout and turn higher (or just up-dip-up if positive news may occur on the weekend with Iran; although the positioning of naval &amp; air forces suggests 'action coming' rather than some 'deal'.. given the nature of special jets (signals intelligence aircraft) which flew the Atlantic via Spain; hence they normally are not deployed unless something likely happening needing them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>土拨鼠日</strong> 是周一，因此我们将看看这场令人震惊的寒冬（在美国大部分地区和市场）是否会很快被显著的洗盘和反弹所解除（或者如果周末伊朗可能出现积极消息，则只是小幅反弹；尽管海军和空军的部署暗示着即将发生的 “行动”，而不是某种 “协议”.. 鉴于特殊飞机（信号情报飞机）通过西班牙飞越大西洋；因此它们通常不会被部署，除非有可能需要它们的事情发生。</p>
</div><p>So, although that's a hint that conflict is coming (so are the Saudi &amp; Israeli ... strategists... odd bedfellows visiting the Pentagon this week, some would say). Thus, aside follow-on compelled liquidations; a lot depends on the news this weekend from Washington and the Middle East; not just whether Tehran talks of negotiations, but commits to 'freedom' and not murdering their innocents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管这暗示着冲突即将来临（沙特和以色列的战略家们... 奇怪的同盟本周访问五角大楼，有人会这么说）。因此，除了后续被迫清算外，很多事情取决于本周末来自华盛顿和中东的消息；不仅仅是德黑兰是否谈论谈判，而是是否承诺 “自由”，而不是谋杀他们的无辜者。</p>
</div><p>Some of that relates to whether or not China really sold more U.S. assets; the actions (or not) by the Bank of Japan; both of which have recently paled by comparison with 'war drums beating', as that obviously occupies center-stage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与中国是否真的出售了更多美国资产有关；日本银行的行动（或不行动）；这两者最近在 “战争鼓声” 的背景下显得微不足道，因为这显然占据了中心舞台。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NYqif70YCxGb4vTgjzMKoR0hUIiFAYsZKEdeOvuk-ExMmAM8hqmQlRbG2OeObC-BhbxI2KOmhz5ZnYNOacTCJlRzEmKKhWQ-Al37u9TkovfxOYNODPV5RxwOZx08DplJXWx5bSrNXOmi24pNqilz46mk-agIA=s0-d-e1-ft#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/675da1c4-8d18-4327-82d5-bc8e38f5c91e.jpg?rdr=true" alt="" original-src="https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NYqif70YCxGb4vTgjzMKoR0hUIiFAYsZKEdeOvuk-ExMmAM8hqmQlRbG2OeObC-BhbxI2KOmhz5ZnYNOacTCJlRzEmKKhWQ-Al37u9TkovfxOYNODPV5RxwOZx08DplJXWx5bSrNXOmi24pNqilz46mk-agIA=s0-d-e1-ft#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/675da1c4-8d18-4327-82d5-bc8e38f5c91e.jpg?rdr=true"/></p>
<p>The tone of the market is understandably anxious. The tone also turned down on AI stocks that were raising incredible amounts of capital with no growth the major companies can show. Some of that sentiment has ratcheted down the food chain to the smaller companies; but they are at the stage of growth that does justify capital raises and investing in preparing for their future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的基调显然是焦虑的。AI 股票的基调也转向下行，这些股票在没有增长的情况下筹集了惊人的资本，而主要公司无法展示任何增长。这种情绪已经传导到较小的公司；但它们正处于一个合理的资本筹集和为未来投资的增长阶段。</p>
</div><p>Hence I added to some positions and may do more next week 'if or in-event' of actual fighting in the Persian Gulf region. IF Iran dares (as propaganda has suggested) attack the USS Lincoln (we wrote two weeks ago it was headed there so didn't expect the crisis to reach a crescendo until then, provided Iran did not attempt a preemptive strike; they did not, except against their citizens desperately seeking freeing from the yoke of oppression from radical mullahs ... and frankly I hope people in the U.K. and France notice, that there are few protests against the Tehran regime in European or American cities; so it does tend to make responsible people take note of Islam killing their own citizens, prior to instigating a full revolution against the regime; which is truly justified.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我增加了一些头寸，并可能在下周 “如果或在事件” 波斯湾地区实际发生战斗的情况下再做更多。如果伊朗敢于（如宣传所暗示）攻击美国林肯号航母（我们两周前写过它正前往那里，因此不期望危机在那之前达到高潮，前提是伊朗没有试图进行先发制人的打击；他们没有，除了对那些绝望寻求摆脱激进教士压迫的公民... 坦率地说，我希望英国和法国的人们注意到，在欧洲或美国城市中对德黑兰政权的抗议很少；这确实使负责任的人注意到伊斯兰教徒杀害自己的公民，在对政权发起全面革命之前，这是完全合理的。）</p>
</div><p>So do I think the market is rough? Of course. Do I think this gets sorted-out at the risk of a week-long (or more) destruction of 'most' military power of Iran? It could go that way; but hard to say. Iran may think they can attack our Carrier with 'swarms' of drones and speedboats; and perhaps they will. I don't know if we can really defend against drone swarms 'yet' (done so when Israel and the U.S. responded to Iran's attack; but it wasn't 100% and was very expensive to do without counter-drones, laser and so on; all of which exists but not in huge quantity 'yet'... but I do believe Iran's actual Navy can be sunk in a few hours.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以我认为市场很糟糕吗？当然。你认为这会在冒着一周（或更长时间）摧毁伊朗 “绝大多数” 军事力量的风险下得到解决吗？可能会这样；但很难说。伊朗可能认为他们可以用 “蜂群” 无人机和快艇攻击我们的航母；也许他们会。我不知道我们是否真的能 “防御” 无人机蜂群（在以色列和美国对伊朗的攻击做出反应时做到了；但并不是 100% 且没有反无人机、激光等的情况下成本非常高；所有这些都存在，但数量不多 “还没”... 但我确实相信伊朗的实际海军可以在几个小时内被击沉。</p>
</div><p>If anything I'd be concerned about radical Islamist's or pro-regime 'terrorism in various places around the world'... including Iranian regime IRGC agents that it is suggested infiltrated across the border into the United States before now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果有什么的话，我会担心激进的伊斯兰主义者或亲政权的 “恐怖主义在世界各地的不同地方”... 包括被建议渗透到美国境内的伊朗政权伊朗革命卫队（IRGC）特工。</p>
</div><p><strong>Market X-ray:</strong> little point in dissecting charts and technical levels when clearly it's a broad decline, with limited 'squaring' ahead of a 'military weekend' (Iran).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>市场透视：</strong> 在明显的广泛下跌情况下，剖析图表和技术水平几乎没有意义，前方的 “军事周末”（伊朗）也有限。</p>
</div><p>So there is knowledge of 'possibly' a couple days of Federal Shutdown (thus little relevance if everything is sorted early in the new week); there's of course the Appointment of the next Fed Chairman (and nothing more need be said aside he's taken both sides of the dovish or hawkish monetary policy sides); and there is the looming threat of an operation against Iran, which potentially could lash out (regardless of our likely successful efforts to wipe-out the awful Islamic regime) and even hit Saudi Oil facilities; and you now what that means for Oil prices briefly (if it happens).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，知道可能会有几天的联邦停摆（因此如果一切在新的一周早期得到解决就没有太大相关性）；当然还有下一任美联储主席的任命（除此之外没有更多需要说的，因为他在鸽派或鹰派货币政策方面都采取了两种立场）；还有对伊朗的行动威胁，这可能会反击（无论我们可能成功消灭可怕的伊斯兰政权）甚至袭击沙特的石油设施；你知道这对油价的短暂影响意味着什么（如果发生的话）。</p>
</div><p>So obviously there are many 'what if's' and in some cases I added bets in just a handful of new-era tickers, particularly 'after' they broke technical supports; in hopes that tripped-up some stops and constitutes a washout. However, that will not answer a question about Monday's start or margin-call pressures of a residual nature related to this past week's slide, even if turning up thereafter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此显然有很多 “如果”，在某些情况下我在仅仅几个新时期的股票中增加了赌注，特别是在它们突破技术支撑之后；希望这会触发一些止损并构成洗盘。然而，这并不能回答关于周一开盘或与本周滑落相关的残余性质的保证金压力的问题，即使之后反弹。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NbqfMfJrB3q1IhA6KjMgxmmMZAtQr3ri_p9JSzB7nBpLTcrBQcNMAYOisCoRCqK45tuUm3IVqYPrkCiq9b3M-AoDThldLpwiPC4ByfJS703j36xyYzEdNQOnfULXWG9C0kZ15_2FwDGmIbCmYpFTZFSWB0bEw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/74731ef0-28f7-449a-8c10-de62217693a4.jpg?rdr=true" alt="" original-src="https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NbqfMfJrB3q1IhA6KjMgxmmMZAtQr3ri_p9JSzB7nBpLTcrBQcNMAYOisCoRCqK45tuUm3IVqYPrkCiq9b3M-AoDThldLpwiPC4ByfJS703j36xyYzEdNQOnfULXWG9C0kZ15_2FwDGmIbCmYpFTZFSWB0bEw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/74731ef0-28f7-449a-8c10-de62217693a4.jpg?rdr=true"/></p>
<p>China gets most Oil from Iran so they do have an indirect degree of leverage against the United States you don't hear of generally... because they were accumulating Treasuries during far calmer times and distributing 'some' more recently. (Once again watch Oil. Far more of a market or inflation influence than any Bitcoin/crypto, which I don't trust.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国从伊朗获得大部分石油，因此他们对美国有一定程度的间接影响力，这是你通常听不到的... 因为他们在相对平静的时期积累了国债，并最近分发了一些。（再次关注石油。对市场或通货膨胀的影响远大于任何比特币/加密货币，我对此不信任。）</p>
</div><p>Whether that's a 'warning' by the Beijing CCP regime of how they can impact our markets is hard to discern. If you see President Trump's planned April trip to Beijing postponed or cancelled, you'll have a hint. I'm not expecting bearish worst-case outcomes of all this (centering around Iran); but it's sort of like why a guy wants a Prenuptial Agreement. Hope for the best; but prepare for the alternative scenarios, just in-case. Know what's on the 'other side of the deal'.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是否是北京中共政权对他们如何影响我们市场的 “警告” 很难辨别。如果你看到特朗普总统计划于四月访问北京的行程被推迟或取消，你就会有一个暗示。我并不期望所有这些（围绕伊朗的中心）会出现看跌的最坏情况结果；但这就像一个人想要一份婚前协议的原因。希望最好；但为替代情景做好准备，以防万一。知道 “交易的另一边” 是什么。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NYjN5vfOiHKG_Qpy8scKuwvuFhlFitjqP3wEpKf78f-prDL6HN54TpTVo6r1pK5hQzmB8kFPb8jKajQGmnyL_QkD_eZnM5pDkvHA_1R_E2QRqjA39hOZYfUgicePabzrXaGIvCXbqYBi0Kf4H038vhnudeNbw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/3b5493b1-019e-447c-94a1-4cd61b3af2f6.jpg?rdr=true" alt="" original-src="https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NYjN5vfOiHKG_Qpy8scKuwvuFhlFitjqP3wEpKf78f-prDL6HN54TpTVo6r1pK5hQzmB8kFPb8jKajQGmnyL_QkD_eZnM5pDkvHA_1R_E2QRqjA39hOZYfUgicePabzrXaGIvCXbqYBi0Kf4H038vhnudeNbw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://files.constantcontact.com/d1260a22101/3b5493b1-019e-447c-94a1-4cd61b3af2f6.jpg?rdr=true"/></p>
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