<p>作者：马克·霍尔伯特</p>
<p>黄金投资者仍然过于乐观</p>
<p>上周五黄金的暴跌并不是其挣扎的终点。即使在上周五暴跌之后，黄金投资者仍然表现得非常兴奋。</p>
<p>这种缺乏看跌恐惧的现象让逆向分析师认为黄金（GC00）还有更多下行空间。</p>
<p>考虑一下我所监测的几十位黄金市场定时器的平均推荐黄金市场敞口。（这个平均值由霍尔伯特黄金通讯情绪指数（HGNSI）表示。）在上周五的大跌之前，HGNSI 的水平在过去 25 年中几乎从未见过，达到了自 2000 年以来日常分布的 99.7 百分位。HGNSI 在周五仅小幅下跌，因此仍高于自 2000 年以来 84.4% 的所有交易日。逆向 “买入” 信号出现在这个百分比降到 10% 以下时。</p>
<p>阅读：摩根大通和德意志银行表示在黄金的弱势中买入</p>
<p>此外：“看跌吞没” 形态在警告你：不要在黄金矿业股票中买入回调</p>
<p>倾听逆向分析师的声音</p>
<p>逆向分析在这样的时刻非常有用，因为没有它，上周五的下跌就是一个谜。分析师被迫寻找基本面的解释。但在当前的情况下，至少他们将徒劳无功：上周五黄金没有发生任何基本面的变化来证明当天的大幅下跌。</p>
<p>例如，一些分析师推测，通胀预期可能在周五下降——可能是因为特朗普总统提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。如果是这样，这可能解释了黄金的下跌，因为黄金通常被视为通胀对冲，而沃什被认为是通胀鹰派。</p>
<p>但证据并不支持这一点。以突破性通胀率为例，这是投资者在持有名义国债和通胀保护国债（TIPS）之间无所谓的利率。这个突破性利率代表了市场对未来几年通胀规模的集体判断。周五，5 年期和 10 年期的突破性利率都上升——这否定了降低通胀预期导致黄金大幅下跌的可能性。</p>
<p>杜克大学富卡商学院的金融教授坎贝尔·哈维同意将沃什的提名归咎于黄金周五大跌是个错误。哈维最近撰写了几篇研究分析黄金在投资者投资组合中的作用的论文（包括《理解黄金》、《黄金与比特币》和《代币化黄金》）。他在周末的一封电子邮件中写道，将周五的下跌归因于沃什的提名是一个 “红鲱鱼”。</p>
<p>其他分析师推测，经济政策不确定性可能在周五大幅下降。这也可能解释黄金的下跌，因为这种黄色金属也被视为对这种不确定性的对冲。但同样，证据并不支持这一可能性。尽管经济政策不确定性（EPU）指数在日常波动中相当不稳定，因此包含很多噪音，但我注意到在一月份有九天 EPU 低于月底的水平——然而黄金在那些其他日子并没有暴跌。</p>
<p>底线是什么？在黄金暴跌之前，市场上存在广泛的兴奋情绪，而这种兴奋情绪只有一小部分被挤出市场。预计在接下来的日子和几周内，黄金价格和投资者将继续挣扎。</p>
<p>马克·霍尔伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍尔伯特评级跟踪支付固定费用进行审计的投资通讯。他的联系方式是 mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
<p>更多：黄金和白银的 7 万亿美元抹去带来了关于风险的痛苦教训</p>
<p>另请阅读：凯文·沃什并不是投资者认为的那样——你如何从他们的错误中获利</p>
<p>——马克·霍尔伯特</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>02-02-26 1508ET</p>

德银贵金属基金 - PowerShares

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

中金黄金

<p>黄金价格最近大幅下跌，但由于投资者仍然过于乐观，抛售预计将继续。Hulbert 黄金通讯情绪指数表明，市场情绪仍然高涨，这暗示着进一步下跌的可能性。分析师们认为，通胀预期或经济政策不确定性等基本面因素并没有证据支持，因此被驳斥。黄金市场的整体过度兴奋尚未得到足够的缓解，这导致人们预测黄金价格在不久的将来将继续面临困境</p>

<p>By Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：马克·霍尔伯特</p>
</div><p>Gold investors are still too bullish</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金投资者仍然过于乐观</p>
</div><p>Gold's plunge last Friday is not the end of its struggles. That's because, even in the wake of Friday's plunge, gold investors are still exuberant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周五黄金的暴跌并不是其挣扎的终点。即使在上周五暴跌之后，黄金投资者仍然表现得非常兴奋。</p>
</div><p>This absence of bearish fear suggests to contrarian analysts that more downside is ahead for gold (GC00).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种缺乏看跌恐惧的现象让逆向分析师认为黄金（GC00）还有更多下行空间。</p>
</div><p>Consider the average recommended gold-market exposure among a sample of several dozen gold-market timers monitored by my performance-auditing firm. (This average is represented by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI.) Prior to Friday's big drop, the HGNSI stood at levels hardly ever seen over the last 21/2 decades - at the 99.7th percentile of its daily distribution since 2000. The HGNSI dropped only slightly on Friday and, as a result, it's still higher than on 84.4% of all trading days since 2000. Contrarian &#34;buy&#34; signals come when this percentage falls below 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑一下我所监测的几十位黄金市场定时器的平均推荐黄金市场敞口。（这个平均值由霍尔伯特黄金通讯情绪指数（HGNSI）表示。）在上周五的大跌之前，HGNSI 的水平在过去 25 年中几乎从未见过，达到了自 2000 年以来日常分布的 99.7 百分位。HGNSI 在周五仅小幅下跌，因此仍高于自 2000 年以来 84.4% 的所有交易日。逆向 “买入” 信号出现在这个百分比降到 10% 以下时。</p>
</div><p>Read: Buy into gold's weakness, say JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：摩根大通和德意志银行表示在黄金的弱势中买入</p>
</div><p>Also: 'Bearish engulfing' patterns are warning you: Don't buy the dip in gold-miner stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外：“看跌吞没” 形态在警告你：不要在黄金矿业股票中买入回调</p>
</div><p>Listen to the contrarians</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倾听逆向分析师的声音</p>
</div><p>Contrarian analysis is useful in times like this because, without it, drops such as Friday's are a mystery. Analysts are forced to look for fundamental explanations. But in the current instance, at least, they will look in vain: Nothing fundamental changed with gold on Friday to justify the day's big decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>逆向分析在这样的时刻非常有用，因为没有它，上周五的下跌就是一个谜。分析师被迫寻找基本面的解释。但在当前的情况下，至少他们将徒劳无功：上周五黄金没有发生任何基本面的变化来证明当天的大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Some analysts, for example, speculated that inflation expectations must have dropped on Friday - possibly in reaction to President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. If so, that could have accounted for gold's drop, since gold is often considered an inflation hedge and Warsh is considered an inflation hawk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一些分析师推测，通胀预期可能在周五下降——可能是因为特朗普总统提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。如果是这样，这可能解释了黄金的下跌，因为黄金通常被视为通胀对冲，而沃什被认为是通胀鹰派。</p>
</div><p>But the evidence doesn't support this. Take the break-even inflation rate, which is the rate at which investors are indifferent between holding nominal Treasurys and inflation-protected Treasurys (TIPS). This break-even rate represents the market's collective judgment of inflation's magnitude in the coming years. Both the 5-year and 10-year break-even rates rose on Friday - dismissing the possibility that reduced inflation expectations caused gold's big price drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但证据并不支持这一点。以突破性通胀率为例，这是投资者在持有名义国债和通胀保护国债（TIPS）之间无所谓的利率。这个突破性利率代表了市场对未来几年通胀规模的集体判断。周五，5 年期和 10 年期的突破性利率都上升——这否定了降低通胀预期导致黄金大幅下跌的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, agreed that it's a mistake to blame the Warsh announcement for gold's big Friday drop. Harvey has authored several studies recently analyzing gold's role in investors' portfolios (including &#34;Understanding Gold,&#34; &#34;Gold and Bitcoin&#34; and &#34;Tokenized Gold&#34;). In an email over the weekend, he wrote that attributing Friday's drop to Warsh's nomination is a &#34;red herring.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杜克大学富卡商学院的金融教授坎贝尔·哈维同意将沃什的提名归咎于黄金周五大跌是个错误。哈维最近撰写了几篇研究分析黄金在投资者投资组合中的作用的论文（包括《理解黄金》、《黄金与比特币》和《代币化黄金》）。他在周末的一封电子邮件中写道，将周五的下跌归因于沃什的提名是一个 “红鲱鱼”。</p>
</div><p>Other analysts have speculated that economic policy uncertainty might have fallen dramatically on Friday. That could have also accounted for gold's drop, since the yellow metal is also considered a hedge against that uncertainty. But once again, the evidence doesn't support that possibility. Though the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index is quite volatile on a day-to-day basis and therefore contains a lot of noise, I note that there were nine other days in January when the EPU was lower than where it stood at the end of the month - and yet gold didn't plunge on any of those other days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他分析师推测，经济政策不确定性可能在周五大幅下降。这也可能解释黄金的下跌，因为这种黄色金属也被视为对这种不确定性的对冲。但同样，证据并不支持这一可能性。尽管经济政策不确定性（EPU）指数在日常波动中相当不稳定，因此包含很多噪音，但我注意到在一月份有九天 EPU 低于月底的水平——然而黄金在那些其他日子并没有暴跌。</p>
</div><p>The bottom line? There was widespread exuberance in the gold market prior to its plunge, and only a small part of that exuberance has been wrung out of the market. Expect gold prices - and investors - to struggle in the days and weeks ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>底线是什么？在黄金暴跌之前，市场上存在广泛的兴奋情绪，而这种兴奋情绪只有一小部分被挤出市场。预计在接下来的日子和几周内，黄金价格和投资者将继续挣扎。</p>
</div><p>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马克·霍尔伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍尔伯特评级跟踪支付固定费用进行审计的投资通讯。他的联系方式是 mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
</div><p>More: Gold and silver's $7 trillion wipeout delivers a painful lesson about risk</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：黄金和白银的 7 万亿美元抹去带来了关于风险的痛苦教训</p>
</div><p>Also read: Kevin Warsh isn't who investors think he is - how you can profit from their mistake</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：凯文·沃什并不是投资者认为的那样——你如何从他们的错误中获利</p>
</div><p>-Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——马克·霍尔伯特</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>02-02-26 1508ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-02-26 1508ET</p>
</div>

Here's the real reason gold prices plunged - and why the selloff likely isn't over yet

Dow Jones

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

华夏黄金ETF

Gold.com

Kinross Gold

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

贵金属股 ETF -ETFS

紫金矿业

纽蒙特矿业

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

黄金 ETF - iShares

黄金和贵金属矿商 ETF - U.S. Global

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做空黄金 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空黄金 ETN - 德银

山东黄金

黄金 ETF - SPDR

这才是金价暴跌的真正原因——以及为什么抛售可能尚未结束