<p>[雅加达] Moody’s 将印度尼西亚的信用前景下调至负面，增加了对政策不确定性和普拉博沃·苏比安托总统政府下治理能力减弱的警告。</p>
<p>穆迪在周四（2 月 5 日）将 Baa2 评级前景从稳定下调，原因是该政府在大约 15 个月的执政期间，政策变得更加不可预测和缺乏凝聚力。如果这种情况持续下去，可能会削弱机构并破坏国家的财政和经济实力，穆迪表示。</p>
<p>如果预算赤字持续增加、货币贬值持续或资本流动侵蚀国家的外部形象，或者国有企业出现实质性减弱，印度尼西亚可能会被降级。</p>
<p>一只跟踪 MSCI 印度尼西亚指数的美国上市指数基金在周四下跌了 1.6%，表现不及美国同行。印尼盾在离岸交易中走弱。</p>
<p>“穆迪的前景下调是一个警告信号，这可能会引发其他评级机构跟进，特别是如果政策制定的性质仍然面临高度不确定性，” OCBC 经济学家拉瓦尼亚·文卡特斯瓦兰在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>这是过去两周内一系列坏消息中的最新一条，再次动摇了东南亚最大经济体的政策制定者和投资者的信心。这也迅速掩盖了印度尼西亚经济增长在第四季度超出预期的消息。</p>
<p>穆迪的警告突显了普拉博沃政府面临的挑战，因为它试图恢复市场信心并避免印度尼西亚资产的再次抛售。基准股票指数在上周经历了自 1998 年以来最糟糕的两天暴跌，此前指数编制公司 MSCI 警告称，由于股票市场缺乏流动性和透明度，新兴市场可能会被降级为边缘市场。</p>
<p>“考虑到事情似乎迅速恶化，我们可能距离降级并不遥远，” Pepperstone Group 的策略师迈克尔·布朗表示。“这无疑是对印度尼西亚资产面临的一系列下行风险的又一次提醒，并具体化了已经存在的担忧。”</p>
<p>政策制定者在周四迅速作出回应。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚央行行长佩里·瓦尔吉约表示，前景下调 “并不反映印度尼西亚经济基本面的任何削弱”。财政部承诺将继续转型经济，恢复增长引擎，同时确保 “每一个潜在风险都将得到妥善管理”。</p>
<p>两方当局还承诺保持价格、印尼盾和金融系统的稳定。</p>
<p>穆迪在声明中提到政府沟通不畅，正值财政部长普尔巴亚·尤迪·萨德瓦在投资者面前进行长时间采访，期间他驳斥了对国家方向的担忧，并嘲笑了一位批评者的学术资格。</p>
<p>前景下调是由于 “政策制定的可预测性降低” 和沟通效果不佳，这可能会削弱政策的有效性，并指向治理能力的减弱，穆迪表示。</p>
<p>“如果这种趋势持续，可能会侵蚀印度尼西亚长期以来建立的政策信誉，而这种信誉支持了稳健的经济增长和宏观经济、财政及金融稳定，” 穆迪表示。</p>
<p>分析师预计，较低的评级前景可能会将印尼盾拖至每美元 17,000，并促使外国资本流出主权债务。</p>
<p>“这真是个坏消息，” 位于雅加达的 Mega Capital 宏观策略师利昂内尔·普里亚迪表示。“印尼盾面临达到每美元 17,000 的风险。”</p>
<p>然而，Abrdn Investments 表示，他们对穆迪的前景下调并不太担忧，指出即使被降级，印度尼西亚仍将保持投资级别。</p>
<p>尽管扩张性财政政策值得关注，但赤字和债务水平在新兴市场标准下仍然较低，该公司的新兴市场主权债务负责人埃德温·古铁雷斯表示。</p>
<p>前景下调对普拉博沃来说又是一次打击，他的统治动荡不安，扰乱了商业和市场。他的政府没收了矿山和种植园，逮捕了因腐败指控而为政府工作的专业人士，重组了国家强大的国有企业，并推出了昂贵的社会福利项目。总统还解雇了他受人尊敬的前财政部长，并打击了国家的富豪。</p>
<p>穆迪指出，财政风险上升，政府面临提高预算赤字上限（占国内生产总值的 3%）的压力。评级公司表示，推动扩大社会项目，包括免费学校餐和可负担住房，可能会随着时间的推移而削弱预算灵活性，特别是如果支出增加超过政府提高收入的能力。</p>
<p>立法者还讨论了对印度尼西亚央行职能的可能修改，而普拉博沃最近任命了一名家庭成员为央行副行长，引发了对该机构政策独立性的担忧。</p>
<p>“情绪在短期内可能会保持波动，” OCBC 的文卡特斯瓦兰表示。投资者将密切关注当局的反应，“需要可信的政策选择以避免在未来 12 到 18 个月内全面信用降级，” 她说。BLOOMBERG</p>

HIDD

印尼 ETF - Market Vectors

印尼 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>穆迪评级将印度尼西亚的信用前景下调至负面，理由是对普拉博沃·苏比安托总统领导下政策不确定性和治理能力下降的担忧。Baa2 评级前景的下调可能导致降级，如果预算赤字或货币贬值持续存在。此警告令投资者感到不安，MSCI 印度尼西亚指数下跌了 1.6%。分析师对政府的沟通和政策有效性表示担忧，而当局则承诺保持经济稳定。前景下调对印度尼西亚的财政信誉构成风险，并可能影响印尼盾和外资投资</p>

<p>[JAKARTA] Moody’s Ratings lowered Indonesia’s credit outlook to negative, adding to growing warnings about policy uncertainty and weakening governance under President Prabowo Subianto’s administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[雅加达] Moody’s 将印度尼西亚的信用前景下调至负面，增加了对政策不确定性和普拉博沃·苏比安托总统政府下治理能力减弱的警告。</p>
</div><p>The Baa2 rating outlook was cut on Thursday (Feb 5) from stable on concerns that policy has become more unpredictable and less cohesive under the roughly 15-month-old administration, Moody’s said. If sustained, it could weaken institutions and undermine the nation’s fiscal and economic strength, Moody’s said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪在周四（2 月 5 日）将 Baa2 评级前景从稳定下调，原因是该政府在大约 15 个月的执政期间，政策变得更加不可预测和缺乏凝聚力。如果这种情况持续下去，可能会削弱机构并破坏国家的财政和经济实力，穆迪表示。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia could be downgraded if there is a sustained increase in the budget deficit, prolonged currency depreciation or capital flows that erode the country’s external profile, or a material weakening among state-owned firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果预算赤字持续增加、货币贬值持续或资本流动侵蚀国家的外部形象，或者国有企业出现实质性减弱，印度尼西亚可能会被降级。</p>
</div><p>A US-listed index fund tracking the MSCI Indonesia Index slumped 1.6 per cent on Thursday, underperforming US peers. Rupiah forwards weakened in offshore trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一只跟踪 MSCI 印度尼西亚指数的美国上市指数基金在周四下跌了 1.6%，表现不及美国同行。印尼盾在离岸交易中走弱。</p>
</div><p>“The Moody’s outlook downgrade is a warning shot, which could trigger other ratings agencies to follow suit, particularly if the nature of policymaking remains subject to a heightened degree of uncertainty,” OCBC economist Lavanya Venkateswaran said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“穆迪的前景下调是一个警告信号，这可能会引发其他评级机构跟进，特别是如果政策制定的性质仍然面临高度不确定性，” OCBC 经济学家拉瓦尼亚·文卡特斯瓦兰在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>It’s the latest in a flurry of bad news over the last two weeks that has rattled policymakers and investors anew in South-east Asia’s largest economy. It also quickly overshadowed news that Indonesia’s economic growth beat forecasts in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是过去两周内一系列坏消息中的最新一条，再次动摇了东南亚最大经济体的政策制定者和投资者的信心。这也迅速掩盖了印度尼西亚经济增长在第四季度超出预期的消息。</p>
</div><p>The Moody’s warning highlights the challenges facing the Prabowo administration as it tries to restore market confidence and avert another sell-off in Indonesian assets. The benchmark stock index suffered its worst two-day rout since 1998 last week after index compiler MSCI warned that the emerging market could be downgraded to frontier status because of a lack of liquidity and transparency in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪的警告突显了普拉博沃政府面临的挑战，因为它试图恢复市场信心并避免印度尼西亚资产的再次抛售。基准股票指数在上周经历了自 1998 年以来最糟糕的两天暴跌，此前指数编制公司 MSCI 警告称，由于股票市场缺乏流动性和透明度，新兴市场可能会被降级为边缘市场。</p>
</div><p>“Given the rapid way in which things appear to be deteriorating, we are probably not especially far from that downgrade coming down the track,” said Michael Brown, strategist at Pepperstone Group. “It’s definitely another reminder of the litany of downside risks facing Indonesian assets, and crystallises concerns that were lingering already.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“考虑到事情似乎迅速恶化，我们可能距离降级并不遥远，” Pepperstone Group 的策略师迈克尔·布朗表示。“这无疑是对印度尼西亚资产面临的一系列下行风险的又一次提醒，并具体化了已经存在的担忧。”</p>
</div><p>Policymakers promptly responded on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者在周四迅速作出回应。</p>
</div><p>Bank Indonesia governor Perry Warjiyo said that the outlook downgrade “does not reflect any weakening in Indonesia’s economic fundamentals”. The Finance Ministry pledged to continue to transform the economy and revive growth engines while ensuring that “every potential risk will be properly managed”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚央行行长佩里·瓦尔吉约表示，前景下调 “并不反映印度尼西亚经济基本面的任何削弱”。财政部承诺将继续转型经济，恢复增长引擎，同时确保 “每一个潜在风险都将得到妥善管理”。</p>
</div><p>Both authorities also committed to maintaining stability in prices, the rupiah and the financial system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两方当局还承诺保持价格、印尼盾和金融系统的稳定。</p>
</div><p>Moody’s cited poor communication by the government in its statement, which came just days after Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa gave a lengthy interview before investors in which he dismissed concerns about the country’s direction and ridiculed one critic’s academic qualifications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪在声明中提到政府沟通不畅，正值财政部长普尔巴亚·尤迪·萨德瓦在投资者面前进行长时间采访，期间他驳斥了对国家方向的担忧，并嘲笑了一位批评者的学术资格。</p>
</div><p>The outlook downgrade was driven by “lower predictability in policymaking” and less effective communication, which risks undermining policy effectiveness and points to weakening governance, Moody’s said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前景下调是由于 “政策制定的可预测性降低” 和沟通效果不佳，这可能会削弱政策的有效性，并指向治理能力的减弱，穆迪表示。</p>
</div><p>“If sustained, the trend could erode Indonesia’s long established policy credibility, which has supported solid economic growth and macroeconomic, fiscal and financial stability,” it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果这种趋势持续，可能会侵蚀印度尼西亚长期以来建立的政策信誉，而这种信誉支持了稳健的经济增长和宏观经济、财政及金融稳定，” 穆迪表示。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect the lower rating outlook could drag the rupiah down to 17,000 per US dollar and spur foreign outflows from sovereign debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计，较低的评级前景可能会将印尼盾拖至每美元 17,000，并促使外国资本流出主权债务。</p>
</div><p>“This is pretty bad news,” said Lionel Priyadi, a macro strategist at Mega Capital in Jakarta. “Rupiah is at risk of hitting 17,000 per US dollar.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这真是个坏消息，” 位于雅加达的 Mega Capital 宏观策略师利昂内尔·普里亚迪表示。“印尼盾面临达到每美元 17,000 的风险。”</p>
</div><p>Abrdn Investments, however, said that it is not overly concerned by Moody’s outlook cut, noting Indonesia would remain investment grade even if downgraded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Abrdn Investments 表示，他们对穆迪的前景下调并不太担忧，指出即使被降级，印度尼西亚仍将保持投资级别。</p>
</div><p>While expansionary fiscal policy bears watching, deficits and debt levels remain low by emerging-market standards, said the firm’s head of EM sovereign debt, Edwin Gutierrez.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管扩张性财政政策值得关注，但赤字和债务水平在新兴市场标准下仍然较低，该公司的新兴市场主权债务负责人埃德温·古铁雷斯表示。</p>
</div><p>The outlook downgrade is another blow to Prabowo, whose reign has been tumultuous, unsettling businesses and markets. His administration has seized mines and plantations, arrested professionals who worked for the government on corruption charges, restructured the nation’s powerful state-owned enterprises and rolled out costly social welfare programmes. The president also sacked his respected former finance minister and cracked down on the country’s tycoons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前景下调对普拉博沃来说又是一次打击，他的统治动荡不安，扰乱了商业和市场。他的政府没收了矿山和种植园，逮捕了因腐败指控而为政府工作的专业人士，重组了国家强大的国有企业，并推出了昂贵的社会福利项目。总统还解雇了他受人尊敬的前财政部长，并打击了国家的富豪。</p>
</div><p>Moody’s flagged rising fiscal risks and pressure on the government to raise its budget deficit ceiling of 3 per cent of gross domestic product. The ratings company said the push to expand social programmes, including free school meals and affordable housing, could strain budget flexibility over time, especially if the increase in spending outpaces the government’s ability to raise revenues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪指出，财政风险上升，政府面临提高预算赤字上限（占国内生产总值的 3%）的压力。评级公司表示，推动扩大社会项目，包括免费学校餐和可负担住房，可能会随着时间的推移而削弱预算灵活性，特别是如果支出增加超过政府提高收入的能力。</p>
</div><p>Lawmakers have also debated possible changes to Bank Indonesia’s mandate, while Prabowo recently appointed a family member as a deputy governor at the central bank, raising concerns about policy independence at the institution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>立法者还讨论了对印度尼西亚央行职能的可能修改，而普拉博沃最近任命了一名家庭成员为央行副行长，引发了对该机构政策独立性的担忧。</p>
</div><p>“Sentiment will likely remain volatile in the near-term,” said OCBC’s Venkateswaran. Investors will be watching responses from the authorities closely and “credible policy choices are needed to avert a full credit downgrade in the next 12 to 18 months”, she said. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“情绪在短期内可能会保持波动，” OCBC 的文卡特斯瓦兰表示。投资者将密切关注当局的反应，“需要可信的政策选择以避免在未来 12 到 18 个月内全面信用降级，” 她说。BLOOMBERG</p>
</div>

穆迪的警告使印尼的政策选择受到密切关注