<div id="readability-page-1"><div>   <p>Treasury bond futures appear ready for a sizeable bounce that could persist for several months or longer.</p> <p>Here we show how the same move might appear in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT).</p>  <p>Although we continue to believe the major high in bonds was set in 2020, the downward pattern since that time might be complete. It is possible to count a five-wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) impulsive move into the TLT support zone near 82.00.</p>  <p>If price remains above the 2023 low of 82.42, then a rally should take it to test initial resistance near 94.60 – 95.20, as drawn with the gray path. Moving above that level would serve as initial confirmation of the bounce scenario and would allow for a test of the higher areas shown: 102.50, 106.70 – 107.70, and our preferred upward target at 114.40. A stretch target for the move awaits near 118.90.</p> <p>The most prominent alternative scenario is that bonds haven’t yet found a low. As shown with the red path, a break beneath 82.42 would allow for a run to the next support at 75.40 and might allow tests of lower supports.</p> <p>If price declines, then 65.10 appears the most likely area for the downward move to finish, but even a test of 55.10 would be possible.</p> <p>You can join us every day at Trading On The Mark for more charts and livestreamed discussions of intraday markets.</p> </div></div>

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<p>国债期货有望迎来一波显著的反弹，可能持续数月。分析表明，自 2020 年以来的下行趋势可能已经结束，五浪模式显示在 82.00 附近存在支撑。如果价格保持在 2023 年低点 82.42 之上，反弹可能会测试 94.60 到 95.20 之间的阻力位，目标更高可达 118.90。相反，如果跌破 82.42，可能会导致进一步下跌，支撑位在 75.40，甚至可能降至 65.10 或 55.10</p>

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