<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/agibank-brazil-invezz.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/agibank-brazil-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>巴西股票和货币今年处于强劲的牛市中。追踪巴西最大公司的伊博维斯帕指数（Ibovespa Index）上涨至创纪录的 190,000 巴西雷亚尔，较疫情低点的 95,130 巴西雷亚尔大幅上涨。今年已连续六周上涨，涨幅达到 17%。</p>
<p>与此同时，巴西雷亚尔（BRL）持续飙升，美元对巴西雷亚尔汇率降至 5.1795，为 2024 年 5 月以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>巴西政府债券表现也不错，十年期收益率从去年的 15.5% 回落至 13.58%。</p>
<h2>伊博维斯帕指数和巴西雷亚尔因外资买入而上涨</h2>
<p>巴西股票、债券和本地货币处于强劲的牛市中，得益于本地和外国投资的持续积累。</p>
<p>最近的一份报告显示，外国投资者在 1 月 1 日至 1 月 21 日期间购买了价值超过 21 亿美元的巴西股票，这一数字可能已经大幅上升。</p>
<p>这一激增发生在投资者继续购买新兴市场资产的背景下，巴西提供了折扣估值倍数、流动性和更具竞争力的利率。</p>
<p>巴西股票也因投资者预测中央银行将在即将于 3 月召开的会议上降息而飙升。几个月以来，利率一直维持在历史高位，大多数分析师预测在 3 月 18 日的会议上将进一步降息。一位彭博社分析师预测，尽管 1 月份通胀略有上升，但仍将降息 50 个基点至 14.50%。</p>
<p>高企的巴西利率使其成为良好的套利交易货币。套利交易是指投资者从低利率货币（如美国）借款，并投资于高利率国家（如巴西）。</p>
<p>此外，伊博维斯帕指数表现良好，因为巴西成为美国与中国之间持续冲突的主要受益者。中国继续购买巴西的大部分产品，如玉米和大豆，最新数据显示两国之间的双边贸易额在去年跃升至创纪录的超过 1710 亿美元。</p>
<p>去年巴西对中国出口的商品价值超过 1000 亿美元，而中国在同一时期向巴西出售的商品价值超过 700 亿美元。这一趋势在可预见的未来可能会继续，因为美国和中国之间的紧张关系可能会持续。</p>
<h2>USD/BRL 技术分析</h2>
<p>周线图显示，美元对巴西雷亚尔的汇率在过去几个月中处于强劲的下行趋势。从 2024 年 12 月的 6.3065 高点暴跌至当前的 5.20。</p>
<p>该货币对已跌破 61.8% 的斐波那契回撤位 5.2458。该价格与 2025 年 9 月和 11 月的最低波动相一致。</p>
<p>50 周和 100 周的指数移动平均线（EMA）发生了看跌交叉，通常被称为迷你死亡交叉。它还形成了一个头肩形态，这是一个常见的看跌反转信号。</p>
<p>因此，最可能的情况是该货币对继续下跌，下一个关键目标在 5，约比当前水平低 3.40%。若突破关键阻力位 5.2642，将会使看跌前景失效。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDBRL-1024x601.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDBRL-1024x601.png"/></p>
<p><em>美元对巴西雷亚尔图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
<h2>伊博维斯帕指数技术分析</h2>
<p>周线图显示，伊博维斯帕指数在过去几个月中处于强劲的上升趋势。过去六周连续上涨，远高于所有移动平均线。</p>
<p>相对强弱指数（RSI）已飙升至 85 的极度超买水平，而随机振荡器已跃升至 90。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ibovespa-Index-1024x601.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ibovespa-Index-1024x601.png"/></p>
<p><em>伊博维斯帕指数图表 | 来源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<p>因此，尽管该指数可能还有进一步上涨的空间，但存在回调的风险，可能在短期内回落至 180,000 巴西雷亚尔的心理关口。</p>
<p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《这就是为什么伊博维斯帕指数和巴西雷亚尔正在飙升》</p>

LBRZ

易方达伊塔乌巴西IBOVESPAETF(QDII)

1325

RIOU

<p>巴西股票和货币正在经历强劲的牛市，Ibovespa 指数达到创纪录的 190,000 巴西雷亚尔，今年上涨了 17%。巴西雷亚尔也大幅上涨，美元/巴西雷亚尔汇率降至 5.1795。这一激增受到外国投资、预期的降息以及与中国贸易增加的推动。技术分析显示 Ibovespa 指数可能会出现回调，而美元/巴西雷亚尔可能会继续下跌，目标为 5.00。总体而言，市场受到有利经济条件和投资者情绪的提振</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/agibank-brazil-invezz.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/agibank-brazil-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>Brazilian stocks and the currency are in a strong bull run this year. The Ibovespa Index, which tracks the biggest companies in Brazil, rose to a record high of BRL 190,000, up sharply from the pandemic-low of BRL 95,130. It has risen in the last six consecutive weeks and is up by 17% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西股票和货币今年处于强劲的牛市中。追踪巴西最大公司的伊博维斯帕指数（Ibovespa Index）上涨至创纪录的 190,000 巴西雷亚尔，较疫情低点的 95,130 巴西雷亚尔大幅上涨。今年已连续六周上涨，涨幅达到 17%。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the Brazilian real (BRL) has continued soaring, with the USD/BRL falling to 5.1795, its lowest level since May 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，巴西雷亚尔（BRL）持续飙升，美元对巴西雷亚尔汇率降至 5.1795，为 2024 年 5 月以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Brazilian government bonds are also doing well, with the ten-year yield has pulled back to 13.58% from last year’s high of 15.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西政府债券表现也不错，十年期收益率从去年的 15.5% 回落至 13.58%。</p>
</div><h2>Ibovespa Index and Brazilian real jumps amid foreign buying</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊博维斯帕指数和巴西雷亚尔因外资买入而上涨</h2>
</div><p>Brazilian stocks, bonds, and the local currency are in a strong bull run, helped by the ongoing accumulation by local and foreign investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西股票、债券和本地货币处于强劲的牛市中，得益于本地和外国投资的持续积累。</p>
</div><p>A recent report showed that foreign investors bought Brazilian stocks worth over $2.1 billion into local equities between January 1 and January 21, a figure that has likely jumped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的一份报告显示，外国投资者在 1 月 1 日至 1 月 21 日期间购买了价值超过 21 亿美元的巴西股票，这一数字可能已经大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>The surge happened as investors continued buying emerging market assets, with Brazil offering discounted valuation multiples, liquidity, and more competitive interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一激增发生在投资者继续购买新兴市场资产的背景下，巴西提供了折扣估值倍数、流动性和更具竞争力的利率。</p>
</div><p>Brazilian stocks have also soared as investors predicted that the central bank will cut interest rates in the upcoming meeting in March. It has left interest at historic highs for months, with most analysts predicting more cuts in the March 18 meeting. A Bloomberg analyst predicted that it will cut by 50 basis points to 14.50%, even after inflation rose slightly in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西股票也因投资者预测中央银行将在即将于 3 月召开的会议上降息而飙升。几个月以来，利率一直维持在历史高位，大多数分析师预测在 3 月 18 日的会议上将进一步降息。一位彭博社分析师预测，尽管 1 月份通胀略有上升，但仍将降息 50 个基点至 14.50%。</p>
</div><p>The elevated Brazilian interest rates have made it a good carry trade currency. A carry trade happens when investors borrow from a low-interest-rate currency, like the United States, and invest in a high-interest-rate country like Brazil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高企的巴西利率使其成为良好的套利交易货币。套利交易是指投资者从低利率货币（如美国）借款，并投资于高利率国家（如巴西）。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the IBOVESPA Index has done well as Brazil became a major beneficiary of the ongoing conflict between the United States and China. China has continued buying most of Brazil’s products like corn and soybeans, with the most recent data showing that the bilateral trade volume between the two countries jumped to a record high of over $171 billion last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，伊博维斯帕指数表现良好，因为巴西成为美国与中国之间持续冲突的主要受益者。中国继续购买巴西的大部分产品，如玉米和大豆，最新数据显示两国之间的双边贸易额在去年跃升至创纪录的超过 1710 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Brazil exported goods worth over $100 billion to China last year, while China sold goods worth over $70 billion to Brazil in the same period. This trend will likely continue in the foreseeable future as tensions between the US and China will likely continue in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年巴西对中国出口的商品价值超过 1000 亿美元，而中国在同一时期向巴西出售的商品价值超过 700 亿美元。这一趋势在可预见的未来可能会继续，因为美国和中国之间的紧张关系可能会持续。</p>
</div><h2>USD/BRL technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/BRL 技术分析</h2>
</div><p>The weekly timeframe chart shows that the USD/BRL exchange rate has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months. It has crashed from a high of 6.3065 in December 2024 to the current 5.20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周线图显示，美元对巴西雷亚尔的汇率在过去几个月中处于强劲的下行趋势。从 2024 年 12 月的 6.3065 高点暴跌至当前的 5.20。</p>
</div><p>The pair has moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at 5.2458. This price aligned with the lowest swing in September 2025 and November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该货币对已跌破 61.8% 的斐波那契回撤位 5.2458。该价格与 2025 年 9 月和 11 月的最低波动相一致。</p>
</div><p>The 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have made a bearish crossover, which is commonly known as a mini death cross. It also formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish reversal sign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50 周和 100 周的指数移动平均线（EMA）发生了看跌交叉，通常被称为迷你死亡交叉。它还形成了一个头肩形态，这是一个常见的看跌反转信号。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair continues falling, with the next key target being at 5, which is about 3.40% below the current level. A move above the key resistance level at 5.2642 will invalidate the bearish outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，最可能的情况是该货币对继续下跌，下一个关键目标在 5，约比当前水平低 3.40%。若突破关键阻力位 5.2642，将会使看跌前景失效。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDBRL-1024x601.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDBRL-1024x601.png"/></p>
<p><em>USD/BRL chart | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>美元对巴西雷亚尔图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>Ibovespa Index technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊博维斯帕指数技术分析</h2>
</div><p>The weekly timeframe chart shows that the Ibovespa Index has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. It has jumped in the past six consecutive weeks and is much higher than all moving averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周线图显示，伊博维斯帕指数在过去几个月中处于强劲的上升趋势。过去六周连续上涨，远高于所有移动平均线。</p>
</div><p>The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has jumped to the extreme overbought level of 85, while the Stochastic Oscillator has jumped to 90.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相对强弱指数（RSI）已飙升至 85 的极度超买水平，而随机振荡器已跃升至 90。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ibovespa-Index-1024x601.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ibovespa-Index-1024x601.png"/></p>
<p><em>Ibovespa Index chart | Source:</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>伊博维斯帕指数图表 | 来源：</em> <em>TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>Therefore, while the index may have some more upside, there is a risk that it will pull back, potentially to the psychological level at BRL 180,000 in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管该指数可能还有进一步上涨的空间，但存在回调的风险，可能在短期内回落至 180,000 巴西雷亚尔的心理关口。</p>
</div><p>The post Here’s why the Ibovespa Index and Brazilian real are soaring appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《这就是为什么伊博维斯帕指数和巴西雷亚尔正在飙升》</p>
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以下是 Ibovespa 指数和巴西雷亚尔为何飙升的原因