<p>作者：路易斯·纳维利尔</p>
<p>路易斯·纳维利尔：到 2030 年黄金价格将翻倍——使当前的波动成为遥远的记忆</p>
<p>路易斯·纳维利尔对此信念提供了两个理由。</p>
<p>寻求投资组合对冲的投资者将有两个选择：黄金和美元。</p>
<p>尽管黄金（GC00）远低于 1 月底的高点，但我怀疑其底部大约在 4500 美元。但这并不重要。到本世纪末，黄金将值 1 万美元一盎司，使得今天的波动成为遥远的记忆。</p>
<p>最新消息：黄金价格跌破 5000 美元，因中国假期削弱了支撑</p>
<p>原因有两个。首先，人口下降对价格施加了下行压力。其次，尽管中央银行几乎完全专注于抗击通货膨胀，但它们并没有能力应对通货紧缩。虽然应对通货紧缩的工具有限且简单——货币贬值和通过量化宽松印钞——但中央银行家们对实施这些措施持谨慎态度。</p>
<p>因此，聪明的钱——以及所有跟随聪明钱的资金——对中央银行家失去了信心，使黄金成为最合逻辑且可用的对冲工具。当我提到聪明的钱时，我指的是埃德·亚尔登尼，我认为他是世界上最聪明的经济学家，他对黄金在本世纪末的预测与我相似。</p>
<p>来自档案（2025 年 2 月）：这位市场专家表示，黄金可能在 2026 年达到 4000 美元。原因如下。</p>
<p>除了美国和印度，其他主要经济体或地区都未能逃脱人口下降及其带来的影响。以下是影响每个地区或市场的因素。尽管它们各不相同，但整体趋势是明确的：货币和经济面临系统性、全球性的下行压力，而黄金价格则因其代表着最可能、最具流动性和可用的对冲工具而上涨。</p>
<p>加密货币：在加密货币的众多属性中，它已成为对抗经济衰退的非相关对冲工具。但这种光环已不再。此外，比特币（BTCUSD）、以太坊（ETHUSD）和许多加密货币 ETF 都存在可怕的买卖差价问题，这削弱了大型机构和有影响力投资者对加密货币的信任。这些投资者将转向黄金。</p>
<p>人民币：中国的消费者价格指数几乎与 2022 年中期持平，而在 2025 年价格增长为负。由于几十年前实施的独生子女政策导致家庭数量减少，中国的国内经济正处于无法逆转的衰退中。GDP 增长已从本世纪初的 8.6% 缩减至目前的 5%。</p>
<p>这仍然是一个大数字，但不可持续，因为它是由对有自身通货紧缩问题的国家的 1 万亿美元出口驱动的。中国停止通货紧缩螺旋的唯一可能方法是通过人民币（USDCNY）贬值，而这在 2001 年加入世界贸易组织之前曾经发生过。北京是否有勇气采取这种激进行动还有待观察。</p>
<p>日元：好消息是日本每千人出生率在过去两年中上升至每千人七个，这是亚洲最高的之一。坏消息是出生率不足以抵消急剧的人口下降，而日本对移民的接受度也不高。为了说明这一点，自 1973 年以来，日本的出生率每年都在下降，从每千人 19.4 个，直到 2023 年 50 年后降至 6 个。</p>
<p>因此，日本正在失去家庭，这使得政府债务的回报变得不太可能。日本的债务占 GDP 的 232%，是其经济的两倍——而救援并不会很快到来。日本首相高市早苗正在大力投入国防和社会保障。这反过来又阻碍了日本银行的工作，该行正在进行大规模的量化宽松计划——即印钞——以维持生计。最终结果将是持续的低利率和日元贬值（USDJPY）。</p>
<p>英镑：英国曾经很好地吸纳移民，这提升了其人口和生产力。但现在，关于移民的紧张局势正在上升，并以一种可能抑制 GDP 增长的方式扭曲经济政策。加强边境保护加剧了人口下降，劳动力短缺增加了企业成本。与欧盟在公民和工人流动方面的政策相悖，造成了摩擦。</p>
<p>妥协的经济政策，加上普遍的经济低迷——如今，每五个工作年龄的英国人中就有一个在领取某种形式的国家补贴——将造成我所担心的恶性循环。此外，有证据表明，英国百万富翁正在向阿联酋、美国、瑞士和意大利迁移。</p>
<p>广泛引用的数字是，2025 年有 16,500 名百万富翁离开了英国。这只是英国 260 万总百万富翁的一小部分，但当 “聪明的钱” 开始流出时，这就是煤矿里的金丝雀。面对英国人口下降、福利支出增加以及制造业和就业的流失，英格兰银行将别无选择，只能大幅降低关键利率并实施量化宽松，这将长期削弱英镑（GBPUSD）的价值。</p>
<p>欧元：好消息是欧盟已扩展至 27 个成员国。坏消息是，英国从未采用单一货币，现已退出欧盟，其他国家可能在 2027 年退出。同时，预计更多反欧盟政党将获得影响力。欧盟已成为一个威胁许多行业的官僚章鱼，尤其是农业和汽车行业。</p>
<p>此外，欧盟不再仅仅是一个货币和贸易的国家联盟。相反，它已经演变为一个精明的政治操作者，不是将成员国的共同利益对齐，而是试图对其进行调控。例如，欧洲中央银行阻止意大利总理乔治亚·梅洛尼宣布意大利银行的黄金属于意大利人民。</p>
<p>欧洲央行对此有其理由，而意大利也屈服了，但这一记忆为 “欧盟的枷锁正在削弱国家自由” 的论点提供了素材。这些自由受到民族主义者的珍视，部分原因是债务和经济增长问题导致了 “每个人为自己” 的心态，因为每个欧盟成员国都在努力解决自己的问题。总体而言，低 GDP 增长、债务、人口减少和无休止的内斗将侵蚀欧元（EURUSD）的价值。</p>
<p>不要错过：欧洲的军事扩张可能会创造一个威胁美国国债的债券市场强国</p>
<p>美元：美国在人口结构上优于这里讨论的其他国家，因为它更年轻（中位数人口年龄低于几乎所有欧盟国家、澳大利亚、日本和中国），而且出生率与每个欧盟成员国相等或更高。美国经济也在良好增长。</p>
<p>美国人口被划分为各州，确实如此，但这些州通过激励和政策相互竞争，以吸引新移民、产业和家庭。这种竞争是美国经济增长的强大驱动力。欧盟也有竞争的国家，但它们并未被统一的法律体系所约束，并且由于国家身份，家庭和企业的迁移并不那么容易。</p>
<p>顺便提一下，虽然通货紧缩对美国不是直接威胁，但情况是流动的，尤其是在人口下降方面。虽然美国人口继续增长，预计在 2024 年增长约 1%，但该国的生育率自 2010 年以来一直低于 2.0。</p>
<p>世界最大经济体的货币贬值和通货紧缩压力使投资者只有两种对冲风险的选择：黄金和美元 DXY。由于预计美国的利率在未来几年将下降，黄金应该会成为更受欢迎的投资——到本世纪末，黄金每盎司达到 10,000 美元将成为一个现实目标。</p>
<p>路易斯·纳维利尔是纳维利尔投资公司的创始人和首席投资官。</p>
<p>更多：‘我感到害怕’：黄金回来了，但它是退休的高风险投资吗？</p>
<p>另请阅读：比特币下跌后，怜悯那些借贷数十亿对抗加密货币的狂热投资者</p>
<p>-路易斯·纳维利尔</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（结束）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>02-17-26 0813ET</p>

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

紫金矿业

紫金黄金国际

<p>根据 Louis Navellier 的说法，预计到 2030 年黄金价格将达到每盎司 10,000 美元，他指出人口下降和中央银行无法应对通货紧缩是关键因素。目前的波动性被视为无关紧要，黄金作为对抗经济衰退的首选对冲工具正在崭露头角。主要经济体面临系统性衰退，促使投资者更倾向于黄金而非失去信誉的加密货币。像中国和日本这样的国家正经历重大经济挑战，进一步支持了对黄金作为安全投资的看涨前景</p>

<p>By Louis Navellier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：路易斯·纳维利尔</p>
</div><p>Louis Navellier: Gold prices will double by 2030 - making current volatility a distant memory</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路易斯·纳维利尔：到 2030 年黄金价格将翻倍——使当前的波动成为遥远的记忆</p>
</div><p>Louis Navellier offers two reasons for this belief in where gold is headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路易斯·纳维利尔对此信念提供了两个理由。</p>
</div><p>Investors seeking a portfolio hedge will have two choices: gold and the U.S. dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>寻求投资组合对冲的投资者将有两个选择：黄金和美元。</p>
</div><p>While gold (GC00) is well off its highs of late January, I suspect the floor is about $4,500. But this is irrelevant. By the end of the decade, gold will be worth $10,000 an ounce, making today's volatility a distant memory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管黄金（GC00）远低于 1 月底的高点，但我怀疑其底部大约在 4500 美元。但这并不重要。到本世纪末，黄金将值 1 万美元一盎司，使得今天的波动成为遥远的记忆。</p>
</div><p>The latest: Gold prices tumble below $5,000 as China holidays dent support</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新消息：黄金价格跌破 5000 美元，因中国假期削弱了支撑</p>
</div><p>There are two reasons for this. First, population declines are placing downward pressure on prices. Second, while their orientation is focused almost exclusively on fighting inflation, central banks are not equipped to fight deflation. While the tools for combating deflation are limited and straightforward - currency devaluation and printing money through quantitative easing - central bankers are averse to implementing them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因有两个。首先，人口下降对价格施加了下行压力。其次，尽管中央银行几乎完全专注于抗击通货膨胀，但它们并没有能力应对通货紧缩。虽然应对通货紧缩的工具有限且简单——货币贬值和通过量化宽松印钞——但中央银行家们对实施这些措施持谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the smart money - and all the money that follows the smart money - has lost confidence in central bankers, making gold the most logical and available hedge. When I say the smart money, I point to Ed Yardeni, whom I consider to be the smartest economist in the world, and who has a similar forecast for gold by the end of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，聪明的钱——以及所有跟随聪明钱的资金——对中央银行家失去了信心，使黄金成为最合逻辑且可用的对冲工具。当我提到聪明的钱时，我指的是埃德·亚尔登尼，我认为他是世界上最聪明的经济学家，他对黄金在本世纪末的预测与我相似。</p>
</div><p>From the archives (February 2025): Gold could hit $4,000 in 2026, this market pro says. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自档案（2025 年 2 月）：这位市场专家表示，黄金可能在 2026 年达到 4000 美元。原因如下。</p>
</div><p>Save the U.S. and India, none of the major economies or regions is exempt from population declines and the attendant impacts. What follows are the factors afflicting each region or market. While they are diverse, the overall trend is clear: There is a systemic, global and downward push on currencies and economies and an upward push on the price of gold because it represents the most likely, liquid and available hedge for this economic downdraft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了美国和印度，其他主要经济体或地区都未能逃脱人口下降及其带来的影响。以下是影响每个地区或市场的因素。尽管它们各不相同，但整体趋势是明确的：货币和经济面临系统性、全球性的下行压力，而黄金价格则因其代表着最可能、最具流动性和可用的对冲工具而上涨。</p>
</div><p>Cryptocurrencies: Among crypto's many attributes, it has emerged as an uncorrelated hedge against a declining economy. But the bloom is off the rose. Furthermore, bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and many crypto ETFs have had hideous bid/ask spread problems that are undermining the credibility of cryptocurrencies among large institutional and influential investors. These investors will migrate to gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密货币：在加密货币的众多属性中，它已成为对抗经济衰退的非相关对冲工具。但这种光环已不再。此外，比特币（BTCUSD）、以太坊（ETHUSD）和许多加密货币 ETF 都存在可怕的买卖差价问题，这削弱了大型机构和有影响力投资者对加密货币的信任。这些投资者将转向黄金。</p>
</div><p>The yuan: China's consumer-price index is almost exactly where it stood in mid-2022, and during 2025 the growth in prices was negative. Due to shrinking households stemming from the one-child policy enacted decades ago, China's domestic economy is in a decline that cannot be reversed. GDP growth has shrunk to 5% currently from 8.6% at the beginning of this century.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人民币：中国的消费者价格指数几乎与 2022 年中期持平，而在 2025 年价格增长为负。由于几十年前实施的独生子女政策导致家庭数量减少，中国的国内经济正处于无法逆转的衰退中。GDP 增长已从本世纪初的 8.6% 缩减至目前的 5%。</p>
</div><p>That's still a big number, but it's unsustainable, since it is driven by $1 trillion in exports to countries with their own deflationary problems. The only possible way China can stop its deflationary spiral is through a yuan (USDCNY) devaluation, which it did before it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. It remains to be seen if Beijing has the intestinal fortitude for this kind of radical action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这仍然是一个大数字，但不可持续，因为它是由对有自身通货紧缩问题的国家的 1 万亿美元出口驱动的。中国停止通货紧缩螺旋的唯一可能方法是通过人民币（USDCNY）贬值，而这在 2001 年加入世界贸易组织之前曾经发生过。北京是否有勇气采取这种激进行动还有待观察。</p>
</div><p>Japanese yen: The good news is Japan's birth rate per 1,000 people has ticked up in the last two years to seven per 1,000 people, and that's among the highest in Asia. The bad news is that the birth rate is not high enough to offset an acute population decline, and Japan is not very open to immigration. To put this into perspective, Japan's birth rate has declined every year since 1973, from 19.4 per 1,000 people, until it bottomed out 50 years later in 2023 at six.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元：好消息是日本每千人出生率在过去两年中上升至每千人七个，这是亚洲最高的之一。坏消息是出生率不足以抵消急剧的人口下降，而日本对移民的接受度也不高。为了说明这一点，自 1973 年以来，日本的出生率每年都在下降，从每千人 19.4 个，直到 2023 年 50 年后降至 6 个。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Japan is losing households, which is making the payoff of government debt unlikely. Japan's debt, at 232% of GDP, is twice as large as its economy - and the cavalry is not coming anytime soon. The prime minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, is spending heavily on defense and social security. This, in turn, is hindering the Bank of Japan, which is engaged in a massive program of quantitative easing - i.e., printing money - to make ends meet. The net result will be continued low interest rates and a depreciating Japanese yen (USDJPY).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，日本正在失去家庭，这使得政府债务的回报变得不太可能。日本的债务占 GDP 的 232%，是其经济的两倍——而救援并不会很快到来。日本首相高市早苗正在大力投入国防和社会保障。这反过来又阻碍了日本银行的工作，该行正在进行大规模的量化宽松计划——即印钞——以维持生计。最终结果将是持续的低利率和日元贬值（USDJPY）。</p>
</div><p>The British pound: Britain used to assimilate immigrants well, and this boosted both its population and productivity. But now tensions over immigration are rising and are warping economic policies in a way that will likely depress GDP growth. Increased border protections exacerbate population decline, and labor shortages increase costs for business. Border policies at odds with those of the European Union, such as the movement of citizens and workers, are creating friction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑：英国曾经很好地吸纳移民，这提升了其人口和生产力。但现在，关于移民的紧张局势正在上升，并以一种可能抑制 GDP 增长的方式扭曲经济政策。加强边境保护加剧了人口下降，劳动力短缺增加了企业成本。与欧盟在公民和工人流动方面的政策相悖，造成了摩擦。</p>
</div><p>Compromised economic policies, combined with general economic malaise - today, one in five working-age Brits is claiming some form of subsidy from the state - will create what I fear is a downward spiral. Moreover, there is some evidence of a migration of British millionaires to the UAE, the U.S., Switzerland and Italy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>妥协的经济政策，加上普遍的经济低迷——如今，每五个工作年龄的英国人中就有一个在领取某种形式的国家补贴——将造成我所担心的恶性循环。此外，有证据表明，英国百万富翁正在向阿联酋、美国、瑞士和意大利迁移。</p>
</div><p>The widely cited figure is that 16,500 millionaires left the U.K. in 2025. This is a fraction of Britain's 2.6 million total millionaires, but when the &#34;smart money&#34; is going that's a canary in a coal mine. Facing Britain's shrinking population, growing welfare tab, and a loss of manufacturing and jobs, the Bank of England will have no choice but to slash key interest rates and enact quantitative easing, which will undermine the value of the British pound (GBPUSD) for a prolonged period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>广泛引用的数字是，2025 年有 16,500 名百万富翁离开了英国。这只是英国 260 万总百万富翁的一小部分，但当 “聪明的钱” 开始流出时，这就是煤矿里的金丝雀。面对英国人口下降、福利支出增加以及制造业和就业的流失，英格兰银行将别无选择，只能大幅降低关键利率并实施量化宽松，这将长期削弱英镑（GBPUSD）的价值。</p>
</div><p>The euro: The good news is that the European Union has grown to include 27 member countries. The bad news is Britain, which had never adopted the single currency, has left the union, and other countries could leave in 2027. Meanwhile, more anti-EU parties are expected to gain influence. The EU has become a bureaucratic octopus that threatens many industries, notably the agriculture and automobile sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元：好消息是欧盟已扩展至 27 个成员国。坏消息是，英国从未采用单一货币，现已退出欧盟，其他国家可能在 2027 年退出。同时，预计更多反欧盟政党将获得影响力。欧盟已成为一个威胁许多行业的官僚章鱼，尤其是农业和汽车行业。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, the EU is no longer just a monetary and trade union of nations. Instead, it has evolved into a shrewd political operator that does not bring the common interests of its member countries into alignment, but rather tries to regulate them. For example, the European Central Bank prevented Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from declaring that the gold in the Bank of Italy belongs the Italian people.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，欧盟不再仅仅是一个货币和贸易的国家联盟。相反，它已经演变为一个精明的政治操作者，不是将成员国的共同利益对齐，而是试图对其进行调控。例如，欧洲中央银行阻止意大利总理乔治亚·梅洛尼宣布意大利银行的黄金属于意大利人民。</p>
</div><p>The ECB had its reasons for this, and Italy capitulated, but the memory of it provides fodder for the argument that the yoke of the EU is undermining national freedoms. These freedoms are cherished by nationalists, in part because debt and economic-growth concerns are producing an &#34;every man for himself&#34; mentality as each EU member tries to solve its own problems. In the aggregate, poor GDP growth, debt, shrinking populations and endless infighting will erode the value of the euro (EURUSD).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行对此有其理由，而意大利也屈服了，但这一记忆为 “欧盟的枷锁正在削弱国家自由” 的论点提供了素材。这些自由受到民族主义者的珍视，部分原因是债务和经济增长问题导致了 “每个人为自己” 的心态，因为每个欧盟成员国都在努力解决自己的问题。总体而言，低 GDP 增长、债务、人口减少和无休止的内斗将侵蚀欧元（EURUSD）的价值。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Europe's military buildup could create a bond-market powerhouse that threatens U.S. Treasurys</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：欧洲的军事扩张可能会创造一个威胁美国国债的债券市场强国</p>
</div><p>The dollar: The U.S. is demographically superior to other countries discussed here because it is younger (with a median population age lower than almost all of the EU, Australia, Japan and China) and has a birthrate that is equal to or higher than every EU member. And the U.S. economy is growing nicely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元：美国在人口结构上优于这里讨论的其他国家，因为它更年轻（中位数人口年龄低于几乎所有欧盟国家、澳大利亚、日本和中国），而且出生率与每个欧盟成员国相等或更高。美国经济也在良好增长。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. population is divided into states, yes, but these states compete with each other using incentives and policies to attract newcomers, industries and households. This competition is a powerful driver of America's economic growth. The EU has competing states, too, but they are not bound together by a uniform set of laws, and, because of national identities, households and businesses do not migrate as easily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国人口被划分为各州，确实如此，但这些州通过激励和政策相互竞争，以吸引新移民、产业和家庭。这种竞争是美国经济增长的强大驱动力。欧盟也有竞争的国家，但它们并未被统一的法律体系所约束，并且由于国家身份，家庭和企业的迁移并不那么容易。</p>
</div><p>Parenthetically, while deflation is not an immediate threat to the U.S., circumstances are fluid, especially with respect to population decline. While the U.S. population continues to grow, rising about 1% in 2024, the nation's fertility rate has remained below 2.0 since 2010.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顺便提一下，虽然通货紧缩对美国不是直接威胁，但情况是流动的，尤其是在人口下降方面。虽然美国人口继续增长，预计在 2024 年增长约 1%，但该国的生育率自 2010 年以来一直低于 2.0。</p>
</div><p>Declines in currency and deflationary pressures in the world's largest economies leave investors with just two choices for hedging risk: gold and the U.S. dollar DXY. Since interest rates in the U.S. are anticipated to decline in the next few years, gold should become a much more popular investment - making $10,000 per ounce gold a realistic target by the end of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界最大经济体的货币贬值和通货紧缩压力使投资者只有两种对冲风险的选择：黄金和美元 DXY。由于预计美国的利率在未来几年将下降，黄金应该会成为更受欢迎的投资——到本世纪末，黄金每盎司达到 10,000 美元将成为一个现实目标。</p>
</div><p>Louis Navellier is the founder and chief investment officer of Navellier &amp; Associates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路易斯·纳维利尔是纳维利尔投资公司的创始人和首席投资官。</p>
</div><p>More: 'I'm spooked': Gold is back, but is it a high-risk bet for retirement?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：‘我感到害怕’：黄金回来了，但它是退休的高风险投资吗？</p>
</div><p>Also read: After bitcoin's fall, pity those wildly enthusiastic investors who borrowed billions against crypto</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：比特币下跌后，怜悯那些借贷数十亿对抗加密货币的狂热投资者</p>
</div><p>-Louis Navellier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-路易斯·纳维利尔</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（结束）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>02-17-26 0813ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>02-17-26 0813ET</p>
</div>

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