<ul>
<li>天然气期货在周三下跌，因为交易者预计整个二月将有温暖天气。</li>
<li>冬季供暖季节即将结束，给价格带来下行压力。</li>
<li>天然气价格的技术走势指向更多潜在的下行空间。</li>
</ul>
<h2><strong>天然气价格因温暖天气预期而下跌</strong></h2>
<p>天然气期货（/NGH6）在 2 月 18 日周三的下午交易中几乎没有变化。当天早些时候，价格跌至 2.922 的日内低点。这使得价格达到了自 1 月 20 日以来的最低水平，自 1 月高点以来下跌超过 30%。</p>
<p>随着温暖的天气覆盖了中西部和东海岸的大部分地区，天然气交易者正在出售天然气，这些地区的需求集中。预计高温将持续到本月剩余时间，并扩展到美国南部和西部。</p>
<p>未来几周的温暖天气可能会逆转我们最近看到的库存减少。在上周四发布的能源信息署最新报告中，我们看到库存减少了 249 亿立方英尺（Bcf）。这使得库存水平低于五年平均水平的 2344 Bcf。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/bltfca24d1ac493c6f7/699635182ed19a0008bc0dd7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_11.12.37.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/bltfca24d1ac493c6f7/699635182ed19a0008bc0dd7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_11.12.37.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA"/></p>
<p>前一周（截至 1 月 30 日的一周），我们看到库存减少了更大的 360 Bcf，这是有记录以来的最大减少。我们在前两周看到的大量库存减少可能会逆转。市场已经反映出这一点。</p>
<p>因此，现在我们必须尝试预测天然气市场接下来可能走向何方。但天然气库存再进行大规模减少的时间已经不多。减少库存的季节通常在四月开始时结束，因为温和的气温降低了供暖需求。</p>
<p>也就是说，我们需要一个晚季的寒潮，而且可能是一个严重的寒潮，因为库存无疑会放缓，甚至可能在接下来的几周内增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.tastylive.com/news-insights/undefined/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.tastylive.com/news-insights/undefined/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMA"/></p>
<h2><strong>天然气技术展望</strong></h2>
<p>天然气价格随着下行趋势的指数移动平均线（EMA）而下跌，特别是 9 日 EMA。周二，12 月的低点 3.007 的支撑被突破，移除了空头的潜在障碍。1 月的低点 2.578 在昨天的交易中突破了 3 的心理关口后成为关注焦点。技术反弹可能会受到 EMA 的阻力，但短期内可能需要基本面的变化来维持任何技术动能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/blt545e8a6129a2e2eb/699634de676f8800085bf9f7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_15.53.04.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/blt545e8a6129a2e2eb/699634de676f8800085bf9f7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_15.53.04.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA"/></p>

景顺长城国证石油天然气ETF

陕天然气

皖天然气

<p>天然气期货面临卖压，因为预计温暖天气将持续到二月份，导致价格下跌。2 月 18 日，价格跌至日内低点 2.922，自一月份以来下降了 30%。温暖的气温可能会逆转近期的库存减少，库存水平降至五年平均水平以下。市场预计随着供暖季节的结束，库存减少将放缓，而需要一场显著的寒潮来维持需求。技术指标显示天然气价格还有进一步下跌的潜力</p>

<ul>
<li>Natural gas futures dropped on Wednesday as traders expect warm weather throughout the rest of February.</li>
<li>Winter heating season is ending, putting downward pressure on prices.</li>
<li>Technical posture for natural gas prices points to more potential downside.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>天然气期货在周三下跌，因为交易者预计整个二月将有温暖天气。</li>
<li>冬季供暖季节即将结束，给价格带来下行压力。</li>
<li>天然气价格的技术走势指向更多潜在的下行空间。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2><strong>Natural gas prices drop as warm weather outlook weighs on sentiment</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>天然气价格因温暖天气预期而下跌</strong></h2>
</div><p>Natural gas futures (/NGH6) were nearly unchanged through afternoon trading on Wednesday, February 18. Earlier in the day, prices fell to an intraday low of 2.922. That put prices at the lowest level since January 20, and down over 30% since their January high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天然气期货（/NGH6）在 2 月 18 日周三的下午交易中几乎没有变化。当天早些时候，价格跌至 2.922 的日内低点。这使得价格达到了自 1 月 20 日以来的最低水平，自 1 月高点以来下跌超过 30%。</p>
</div><p>Traders are selling natural gas as warmer-than-average weather blankets much of the Midwest and East Coast, where demand for the commodity is concentrated. The high temperatures are expected to continue through the rest of the month and expand into the Southern and Western United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着温暖的天气覆盖了中西部和东海岸的大部分地区，天然气交易者正在出售天然气，这些地区的需求集中。预计高温将持续到本月剩余时间，并扩展到美国南部和西部。</p>
</div><p>The resulting warm weather over the next several weeks will likely reverse the inventory withdrawals we’ve seen recently. We saw a 249 billion cubic foot (Bcf) withdrawal from inventory in the Energy Information Administration’s latest report released last Thursday. That brought stock levels below the five-year average of 2,344 Bcf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来几周的温暖天气可能会逆转我们最近看到的库存减少。在上周四发布的能源信息署最新报告中，我们看到库存减少了 249 亿立方英尺（Bcf）。这使得库存水平低于五年平均水平的 2344 Bcf。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/bltfca24d1ac493c6f7/699635182ed19a0008bc0dd7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_11.12.37.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/bltfca24d1ac493c6f7/699635182ed19a0008bc0dd7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_11.12.37.png?format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;quality=50&amp;width=1000&amp;disable=upscale"/></p>
<p>The week before (for the week ending January 30), we saw an even bigger 360 Bcf withdrawal, which was the largest on record. The large inventory draws we’ve seen over the preceding two weeks are likely to reverse course. The market is already reflecting that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前一周（截至 1 月 30 日的一周），我们看到库存减少了更大的 360 Bcf，这是有记录以来的最大减少。我们在前两周看到的大量库存减少可能会逆转。市场已经反映出这一点。</p>
</div><p>So, now we must try to predict where the natural gas market can go next. But time is running out for another large withdrawal in natural gas inventories. The withdrawal season typically ends once April starts, when milder temperatures reduce heating demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，现在我们必须尝试预测天然气市场接下来可能走向何方。但天然气库存再进行大规模减少的时间已经不多。减少库存的季节通常在四月开始时结束，因为温和的气温降低了供暖需求。</p>
</div><p>That said, we’ll need a late season cold snap, and likely one that is severe, because inventories will undoubtedly slow and may even build over the coming weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，我们需要一个晚季的寒潮，而且可能是一个严重的寒潮，因为库存无疑会放缓，甚至可能在接下来的几周内增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.tastylive.com/news-insights/undefined/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMA" alt="" original-src="https://www.tastylive.com/news-insights/undefined?format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;quality=50&amp;width=100&amp;disable=upscale"/></p>
<h2><strong>Natural gas technical outlook</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>天然气技术展望</strong></h2>
</div><p>Natural gas prices have moved lower alongside downward trending exponential moving averages (EMAs), particularly the 9-day EMA. Support from the December swing low at 3.007 gave way on Tuesday, removing a potential barrier for bears. The January swing low 2.578 is in focus after the 3 psychological level was breached in yesterday’s session as well. A technical bounce may face resistance from the EMAs, but a fundamental shift is likely required over the short term to sustain any technical momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天然气价格随着下行趋势的指数移动平均线（EMA）而下跌，特别是 9 日 EMA。周二，12 月的低点 3.007 的支撑被突破，移除了空头的潜在障碍。1 月的低点 2.578 在昨天的交易中突破了 3 的心理关口后成为关注焦点。技术反弹可能会受到 EMA 的阻力，但短期内可能需要基本面的变化来维持任何技术动能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/blt545e8a6129a2e2eb/699634de676f8800085bf9f7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_15.53.04.png/query-YXV0bz13ZWJwJmRpc2FibGU9dXBzY2FsZSZmb3JtYXQ9cGpwZyZxdWFsaXR5PTUwJndpZHRoPTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt40263f25ec36953f/blt545e8a6129a2e2eb/699634de676f8800085bf9f7/Screenshot_2026-02-18_at_15.53.04.png?format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;quality=50&amp;width=1000&amp;disable=upscale"/></p>

随着气温上升，天然气价格面临更大的抛售压力