<p>交易关键 - 随着我们进入 2026 年初，全球投资者的目光再次锁定在日元（JPY）上。尽管日本银行（BoJ）逐步将政策利率提高至 0.5% - 0.75% 的区间，标志着负利率时代的明确结束，但日元对美元的汇率仍然呈下降趋势。</p>
<p>这种异常现象，即使加息也无法拯救日元，剥去了日元作为 “避险资产” 的最后一层外衣。这不仅仅是利率差异的问题，而是暴露了日本经济长期积累的深层结构矛盾。</p>
<h2>同时踩油门与刹车的政策悖论</h2>
<p>日本当前经济政策的主要矛盾源于货币政策与财政政策之间的严重错位。</p>
<p>一方面，在货币政策层面，日本银行在植田和男的领导下，努力推进 “政策正常化”。通过加息和量化紧缩（减少资产负债表），日本银行希望遏制因进口成本上升而带来的通胀压力，并冷却过热的价格体系。</p>
<p>然而，财政政策却在 “踩油门”。自上任以来，高市早苗政府推出了一项价值 21.3 万亿日元的大规模刺激计划，以刺激国内需求、推动消费并巩固选民支持，包括现金支付和减税等措施。虽然这些措施可能在短期内提升消费，但本质上意味着政府必须承担更多的债务。</p>
<p>这种 “货币紧缩 + 财政宽松” 的政策组合对市场信心构成挑战。观察人士看到，一个总债务已超过其国内生产总值（GDP）260% 的国家，仍在通过进一步发债维持其增长路径。</p>
<p>这引发了投资者的担忧：一旦日本银行的加息过程遭遇财政压力的 “天花板”，是否会被迫暂停甚至转向？</p>
<p>简而言之，“一手加息紧缩、一手刺激支出” 的政策矛盾，不仅削弱了日元的国际信誉，也使市场质疑日本实现真正政策独立和经济可持续发展的能力。</p>
<h2>避险地位正在崩溃</h2>
<p>日元长期以来被视为全球金融市场的避险货币，资本通常在波动时期流入日本。然而，到 2026 年，这一传统逻辑正在发生根本性变化，日元的避险光环逐渐褪去。</p>
<p>首先，日本与美国之间的利率差距依然较大。尽管特朗普政府发出了强烈的降息预期，但美联储的终端政策利率仍预计将保持在 3% 以上。相比之下，日本银行的加息步伐缓慢，整体货币政策仍相对宽松。两国之间利差的缩小滞后于市场预期，使得套利交易仍具吸引力。因此，日元继续作为低成本融资货币，面临持续的下行压力。</p>
<p>其次，投资者正在重新评估其避险资产配置。由于日本经济基本面疲弱且缺乏增长动能，日元作为避险资产的吸引力下降。越来越多的机构将避险头寸转向更稳定的货币，如瑞士法郎。在全球市场波动加剧的时期，日元不再是风险厌恶资本的首选；相反，在市场流动性收紧的阶段，日元面临更大的卖压。</p>
<p>此外，国际收支平衡的变化进一步削弱了日元的支撑。作为一个高度依赖能源和农产品进口的国家，日本逐渐从一个传统的贸易顺差国转变为长期的贸易逆差国。日元贬值并没有显著提升出口竞争力，反而加重了进口成本的负担，导致贸易逆差持续扩大。这形成了 “货币贬值 — 进口成本上升 — 逆差扩大” 的负反馈循环。</p>
<p>从这个角度看，日元贬值不仅受到货币政策差异的驱动，还反映了其避险属性的削弱和日本结构性经济问题的加深。</p>
<h2>“通胀之痛”：工资增长乏力与购买力下降</h2>
<p>多年来，日本政府一直致力于促进 “工资增长 — 价格上涨” 的良性循环，以摆脱通缩的阴影。然而，截至 2026 年，这一理想化的路径尚未实现稳定的落实。</p>
<p>日元的长期疲软显著提高了以美元计价的能源和食品进口成本，推动核心 CPI 持续超过日本银行 2% 的目标。这种由汇率和外部价格驱动的价格通胀，给公众的日常生活带来了压力。</p>
<p>尽管大型企业在今年的 “春季工资谈判”（Shunto）中提供了相对积极的工资增长，表面上显示出一些复苏，但对整体劳动力市场的影响有限。</p>
<p>原因在于，中小企业（SMEs）占日本劳动力的约 70%，普遍面临高成本、低议价能力和压缩的利润空间，难以同步提高工资。因此，大多数员工的实际工资不仅未能增长，反而因通胀侵蚀购买力而持续下降。</p>
<p>“名义工资上升但实际购买力下降” 的情况正在逐渐削弱消费者的消费能力和信心。消费者面临生活成本上升和收入增长无法跟上物价的现实，导致整体国内需求收缩。</p>
<h2>是否需要 “干预 + 加息”？</h2>
<p>日本国际经济与战略研究所现任主席、前国际事务副财政大臣中尾武彦指出，虽然外汇市场干预可以对汇率产生短期冲击，但日本央行必须伴随进一步的加息，以实现更持久的效果。</p>
<p>中尾表示：“使用现金干预市场确实可以产生强大的即时影响，但如果日本央行能够明确表示将持续加息，其效果将更为深远。”</p>
<p>目前，日本央行已于去年 12 月将短期政策利率提高至 0.75%，并发出了可能进一步收紧的信号。然而，在通胀持续高于 2% 目标近四年的背景下，日本的实际利率仍然深陷负值区间。这一利率结构是日元长期承压的根本原因之一。</p>
<p>中尾认为，日本央行仍然相对宽松，导致市场预期其收紧步伐远慢于美联储和其他主要央行。由于日本与美国之间的利率差距仍然显著，资本持续流出日本，导致日元贬值。他进一步指出：“通过更积极的加息应对通胀，不仅有助于稳定汇率，还可以抑制长期国债收益率的过度上升。”</p>
<p>他警告称，如果日本央行加息政策迟缓，日元可能会继续贬值。这不仅会引发市场波动，还可能对公众的实际购买力和进口成本产生更大影响。</p>
<p>中尾还提到，下一任美联储主席凯文·沃尔什的政策倾向也将影响日元的走势。“沃尔什可能会继续前财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾以来的政策理念，即 ‘强势美元符合美国的利益’。如果美国维持强势美元政策，而日本央行延迟收紧，日元贬值的压力可能会更难缓解。”</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

1346

2525

日本指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

日本货币对冲 MSCI ETF - iShares

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

1329

1369

<p>截至 2026 年初，尽管日本银行加息，日元仍在持续贬值，这揭示了日本经济深层次的结构性矛盾。货币紧缩与财政刺激之间的不匹配引发了市场信心和日元作为避险资产地位的担忧。由于与美国之间的利率差距较大、经济基本面疲弱以及贸易逆差的转变，日元的吸引力正在减弱。此外，由于进口成本上升推动的通货膨胀正在侵蚀购买力，进一步复杂化了日本实现可持续经济增长的努力</p>

<p>TradingKey - As we enter early 2026, the eyes of global investors are once again locked on the Japanese yen ( JPY ). Despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gradually raising policy rates to the 0.5% - 0.75% range, marking a definitive end to the era of negative interest rates, the yen's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar remains on a downward trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易关键 - 随着我们进入 2026 年初，全球投资者的目光再次锁定在日元（JPY）上。尽管日本银行（BoJ）逐步将政策利率提高至 0.5% - 0.75% 的区间，标志着负利率时代的明确结束，但日元对美元的汇率仍然呈下降趋势。</p>
</div><p>This anomaly, where even rate hikes cannot save the yen, has stripped away the final veneer of the yen as a &#34;safe-haven asset.&#34; It is not merely a matter of interest rate differentials but exposes deep-seated structural contradictions that have accumulated within the Japanese economy over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种异常现象，即使加息也无法拯救日元，剥去了日元作为 “避险资产” 的最后一层外衣。这不仅仅是利率差异的问题，而是暴露了日本经济长期积累的深层结构矛盾。</p>
</div><h2>The Policy Paradox of &#34;Gas and Brakes&#34; Running Simultaneously</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>同时踩油门与刹车的政策悖论</h2>
</div><p>The primary contradiction in Japan's current economic policy stems from a severe misalignment between monetary and fiscal policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本当前经济政策的主要矛盾源于货币政策与财政政策之间的严重错位。</p>
</div><p>On the one hand, at the monetary policy level, the Bank of Japan, under the leadership of Kazuo Ueda, is striving to advance &#34;policy normalization.&#34; Through rate hikes and quantitative tightening (reducing its balance sheet), the BoJ hopes to curb inflationary pressures stemming from rising import costs and cool down the overheated price system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，在货币政策层面，日本银行在植田和男的领导下，努力推进 “政策正常化”。通过加息和量化紧缩（减少资产负债表），日本银行希望遏制因进口成本上升而带来的通胀压力，并冷却过热的价格体系。</p>
</div><p>Simultaneously, however, fiscal policy is &#34;stepping on the gas.&#34; Since taking office, the Sanae Takaichi administration has launched a massive stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen to stimulate domestic demand, drive consumption, and solidify voter support, including measures such as cash payouts and tax cuts. While these measures may boost consumption in the short term, they essentially mean the government must take on further debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，财政政策却在 “踩油门”。自上任以来，高市早苗政府推出了一项价值 21.3 万亿日元的大规模刺激计划，以刺激国内需求、推动消费并巩固选民支持，包括现金支付和减税等措施。虽然这些措施可能在短期内提升消费，但本质上意味着政府必须承担更多的债务。</p>
</div><p>This mismatched policy mix of &#34;monetary tightening + fiscal easing&#34; poses a challenge to market confidence. Observers see a nation whose total debt already exceeds 260% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continuing to sustain its growth path through further debt issuance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种 “货币紧缩 + 财政宽松” 的政策组合对市场信心构成挑战。观察人士看到，一个总债务已超过其国内生产总值（GDP）260% 的国家，仍在通过进一步发债维持其增长路径。</p>
</div><p>This has raised investor concerns: once the BoJ's rate hike process hits a &#34;ceiling&#34; of fiscal pressure, will it be forced to pause or even pivot?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这引发了投资者的担忧：一旦日本银行的加息过程遭遇财政压力的 “天花板”，是否会被迫暂停甚至转向？</p>
</div><p>In short, the policy contradiction of &#34;hiking rates and tightening with one hand while stimulating and spending with the other&#34; not only weakens the yen's international credibility but also causes the market to question Japan's ability to achieve true policy independence and economic sustainability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，“一手加息紧缩、一手刺激支出” 的政策矛盾，不仅削弱了日元的国际信誉，也使市场质疑日本实现真正政策独立和经济可持续发展的能力。</p>
</div><h2>The Safe-Haven Status is Collapsing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>避险地位正在崩溃</h2>
</div><p>The yen was long regarded as a safe-haven currency in global financial markets, with capital typically flowing into Japan during periods of volatility. However, by 2026, this traditional logic is undergoing a fundamental shift, and the yen's safe-haven halo is gradually fading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元长期以来被视为全球金融市场的避险货币，资本通常在波动时期流入日本。然而，到 2026 年，这一传统逻辑正在发生根本性变化，日元的避险光环逐渐褪去。</p>
</div><p>First, the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States remains wide. Despite the Trump administration signaling strong expectations for rate cuts, the Fed's terminal policy rate is still expected to remain above 3%. In contrast, the BoJ's pace of rate hikes is slow, and overall monetary policy remains relatively accommodative. The narrowing of the spread between the two countries is lagging behind market expectations, keeping the carry trade attractive. Consequently, the yen continues to be used as a low-cost funding currency, facing persistent downward pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，日本与美国之间的利率差距依然较大。尽管特朗普政府发出了强烈的降息预期，但美联储的终端政策利率仍预计将保持在 3% 以上。相比之下，日本银行的加息步伐缓慢，整体货币政策仍相对宽松。两国之间利差的缩小滞后于市场预期，使得套利交易仍具吸引力。因此，日元继续作为低成本融资货币，面临持续的下行压力。</p>
</div><p>Second, investors are reappraising their safe-haven asset allocations. Due to weak Japanese economic fundamentals and a lack of growth momentum, the yen's appeal as a safe-haven asset has declined. An increasing number of institutions are shifting their haven positions to more stable currencies, such as the Swiss franc. During periods of heightened global market volatility, the yen is no longer the preferred choice for risk-averse capital; instead, it faces greater selling pressure during phases of tightening market liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，投资者正在重新评估其避险资产配置。由于日本经济基本面疲弱且缺乏增长动能，日元作为避险资产的吸引力下降。越来越多的机构将避险头寸转向更稳定的货币，如瑞士法郎。在全球市场波动加剧的时期，日元不再是风险厌恶资本的首选；相反，在市场流动性收紧的阶段，日元面临更大的卖压。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, shifts in the current account balance have further weakened the yen's support. As a nation highly dependent on energy and agricultural imports, Japan has gradually transitioned from a traditional trade surplus country to a long-term trade deficit country. Rather than significantly boosting export competitiveness, the yen's depreciation has exacerbated the burden of import costs, leading to a continuous expansion of the trade deficit. This has created a negative feedback loop of &#34;currency weakness — rising import costs — widening deficit.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，国际收支平衡的变化进一步削弱了日元的支撑。作为一个高度依赖能源和农产品进口的国家，日本逐渐从一个传统的贸易顺差国转变为长期的贸易逆差国。日元贬值并没有显著提升出口竞争力，反而加重了进口成本的负担，导致贸易逆差持续扩大。这形成了 “货币贬值 — 进口成本上升 — 逆差扩大” 的负反馈循环。</p>
</div><p>Viewed this way, the yen's depreciation is driven not only by monetary policy differences but also reflects the weakening of its safe-haven attributes and the deepening of Japan's structural economic issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个角度看，日元贬值不仅受到货币政策差异的驱动，还反映了其避险属性的削弱和日本结构性经济问题的加深。</p>
</div><h2>The &#34;Inflation Pain&#34;: Sluggish Wage Growth and Eroding Purchasing Power</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>“通胀之痛”：工资增长乏力与购买力下降</h2>
</div><p>For years, the Japanese government has been committed to fostering a virtuous cycle of &#34;wage growth — price increases&#34; to escape the shadow of deflation. However, as of 2026, this idealized path has yet to achieve stable implementation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，日本政府一直致力于促进 “工资增长 — 价格上涨” 的良性循环，以摆脱通缩的阴影。然而，截至 2026 年，这一理想化的路径尚未实现稳定的落实。</p>
</div><p>The prolonged weakness of the yen has significantly raised the cost of dollar-denominated energy and food imports, driving core CPI to consistently exceed the BoJ's 2% target. This price inflation, driven by exchange rates and external prices, has put pressure on the public's daily lives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元的长期疲软显著提高了以美元计价的能源和食品进口成本，推动核心 CPI 持续超过日本银行 2% 的目标。这种由汇率和外部价格驱动的价格通胀，给公众的日常生活带来了压力。</p>
</div><p>Although large corporations offered relatively positive wage increases during this year's &#34;Shunto&#34; (spring wage negotiations), signaling some recovery on the surface, the impact on the overall labor market has been limited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管大型企业在今年的 “春季工资谈判”（Shunto）中提供了相对积极的工资增长，表面上显示出一些复苏，但对整体劳动力市场的影响有限。</p>
</div><p>The reason is that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which account for about 70% of Japan's workforce, generally face high costs, low bargaining power, and compressed profit margins, making it difficult for them to raise wages in tandem. As a result, the real wages of most employees have not only failed to grow but have continued to decline as inflation erodes purchasing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因在于，中小企业（SMEs）占日本劳动力的约 70%，普遍面临高成本、低议价能力和压缩的利润空间，难以同步提高工资。因此，大多数员工的实际工资不仅未能增长，反而因通胀侵蚀购买力而持续下降。</p>
</div><p>This situation of &#34;rising nominal wages but declining real purchasing power&#34; is gradually weakening consumer spending power and confidence. Consumers are facing the reality of rising living costs and income growth that cannot keep pace with prices, leading to a contraction in overall domestic demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“名义工资上升但实际购买力下降” 的情况正在逐渐削弱消费者的消费能力和信心。消费者面临生活成本上升和收入增长无法跟上物价的现实，导致整体国内需求收缩。</p>
</div><h2>Is &#34;Intervention + Rate Hikes&#34; Required?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>是否需要 “干预 + 加息”？</h2>
</div><p>Takehiko Nakao, former Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs and current Chairman of the Institute for International Economic and Strategic Studies, noted that while foreign exchange market intervention can provide a short-term shock to the exchange rate, the BoJ must accompany it with further rate hikes to achieve a more lasting effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本国际经济与战略研究所现任主席、前国际事务副财政大臣中尾武彦指出，虽然外汇市场干预可以对汇率产生短期冲击，但日本央行必须伴随进一步的加息，以实现更持久的效果。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Using hard cash to intervene in the market can indeed have a powerful immediate impact, but if the BoJ can demonstrate a clear intention for sustained rate hikes, the effect will be far more profound,&#34; Nakao stated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中尾表示：“使用现金干预市场确实可以产生强大的即时影响，但如果日本央行能够明确表示将持续加息，其效果将更为深远。”</p>
</div><p>Currently, the BoJ raised short-term policy rates to 0.75% last December and has signaled possible further tightening ahead. However, against a backdrop of inflation remaining above the 2% target for nearly four consecutive years, Japan's real interest rates remain deep in negative territory. This interest rate structure is one of the fundamental reasons for the long-term pressure on the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，日本央行已于去年 12 月将短期政策利率提高至 0.75%，并发出了可能进一步收紧的信号。然而，在通胀持续高于 2% 目标近四年的背景下，日本的实际利率仍然深陷负值区间。这一利率结构是日元长期承压的根本原因之一。</p>
</div><p>Nakao believes that the BoJ remains relatively accommodative, leading markets to expect its tightening pace to be far slower than that of the Fed and other major central banks. Since the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. remains significant, capital continues to flow out of Japan, causing the yen to depreciate. He further pointed out: &#34;Responding to inflation through more proactive rate hikes would not only help stabilize the exchange rate but could also curb the excessive rise in long-term government bond yields.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中尾认为，日本央行仍然相对宽松，导致市场预期其收紧步伐远慢于美联储和其他主要央行。由于日本与美国之间的利率差距仍然显著，资本持续流出日本，导致日元贬值。他进一步指出：“通过更积极的加息应对通胀，不仅有助于稳定汇率，还可以抑制长期国债收益率的过度上升。”</p>
</div><p>He warned that if the BoJ is slow to tighten policy, the yen could continue to weaken. This would not only trigger market volatility but could also have a greater impact on the public's real purchasing power and import costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他警告称，如果日本央行加息政策迟缓，日元可能会继续贬值。这不仅会引发市场波动，还可能对公众的实际购买力和进口成本产生更大影响。</p>
</div><p>Nakao also mentioned that the policy leanings of Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the next Fed Chair, will also influence the yen's trajectory. &#34;Warsh is likely to continue the policy philosophy held since former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, that a 'strong dollar is in the interest of the United States.' If the U.S. maintains a strong dollar policy while the BoJ delays tightening, the pressure for yen depreciation will likely be even harder to alleviate.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中尾还提到，下一任美联储主席凯文·沃尔什的政策倾向也将影响日元的走势。“沃尔什可能会继续前财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾以来的政策理念，即 ‘强势美元符合美国的利益’。如果美国维持强势美元政策，而日本央行延迟收紧，日元贬值的压力可能会更难缓解。”</p>
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Why the Yen Falls Further the More It Is Rescued: The Answer Lies in Japan’s Own Structural Contradictions

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

Japan Agricultural Cooperatives Group

BlackRock, Inc.

Asset Management One Co., Ltd.

为什么日元越被拯救反而跌得越多：答案在于日本自身的结构性矛盾